Next Korean war is coming close...

[Erwin]

This horrible stuff has been going on for decades.  None of the previous Presidents accomplished anything re NK, and instead they were selling out the west to China - basically acting like the captain of the Titanic - trying to keep everyone calm while the ship was sinking. 

Am happy to wait and see if Trumpy's unorthodox approaches to everything works.  At least the US economy seems to be booming - and that was after everyone predicted economic collapse if he was elected.  So, pinch of salt re all the negativity and naysayers...  

[Sgt.Squarehead]

Possibly of interest:

[kevinkin]

I think armchair diplomats are giving to much credence to allowing Kim a cup of coffee on the world stage. My goodness, Trump was elected to the bulliest of pulpits out of nowhere and half the world still thinks he is a piece of sh*t.

Kevin

[Erwin]

But the other half doesn't.  What makes this such a compelling TV soap opera series is wanting to find out what happens next.      

[mjkerner]

So, last year everyone was atwitter (pun intended) about starting a war with the Norks.  Then there is a summit (detail negotiations by underlings to follow) and Trump is accused of legitimizing Kim by giving him a world stage!  How the **** are you going to de-escalate peacefully without talks? So, the act of attempting to negotiate is in and of itself wrong?!?!?!  The frenzy created about Trump through the media is ridiculously outrageous and disingenuous, to say the least. 

SoIt appears some people spotted Prez Trump walking across the Potomac River...on top of the water.     Next day's headlines:  Trump Can't Swim!!!

I will never again post anything political here again, I swear, but the pretzel logic of certain groups of people and the media (by-and-large) is astoundingly hypocritical, disingenuous, myopic and over the top regarding ANYTHING the man does, and shows a level of either plain idiocy or intentional deception (or self-deception) that goes beyond the pale.  

Rant over, and I'm self-exiling myself from this thread.

Cheers!

[sburke]

Hey MJ, Everyone is entitled to a good rant occasionally.  However on this topic when he walks on water and you find out the water was just a surface film.... well what can you say?

The issue isn't having talks, the issue has always been at what level.  Every other prez (Repub and Dem) has refused presidential level unless we actually were going to get something.  Kim meeting as equals gets him something for sure.  So here is what we got.

Whew, good thing we have that memorandum.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/satellite-images-show-north-korea-upgrading-nuclear-research-facility-report/ar-AAzdIpU?ocid=spartanntp

[sburke]

More on steps by N Korea that don't build confidence.  Intel assessment is N Korea likely has a second facility for production and there are no signs they are altering production plans

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/north-korea-has-increased-nuclear-production-at-secret-sites-say-us-officials/ar-AAzmpc8?ocid=spartanntp

 

While the North Koreans have stopped missile and nuclear tests, "there's no evidence that they are decreasing stockpiles, or that they have stopped their production," said one U.S. official briefed on the latest intelligence. "There is absolutely unequivocal evidence that they are trying to deceive the U.S."

Four other officials familiar with the intelligence assessment also said North Korea intended to deceive the U.S.

U.S. intelligence agencies have stepped up their collection against North Korea in recent years, and it appears to be paying off with greater insights into a country that has long been the world's hardest spying target, officials say. NBC News agreed to withhold some details of the latest intelligence assessment that officials said could put sources at risk.

"There are lots of things that we know that North Korea has tried to hide from us for a long time," a U.S. intelligence official said.

It's long been understood that North Korea had at least one undeclared facility to enrich nuclear fuel, aside from Yongbyon, its main nuclear site.

 

[Erwin]

Quite predictable behavior by the NK's (and China for that matter).  Am certain that our people are on top of this.  I mean... even WE know about this stuff!  Games and strategic maneuver are being played by all sides.  We have the winning hand... right now... and need to play it.  In a dozen years, who knows where our would-be Chinese overlords and their NK puppet regime will be at.

[Sublime]

I wish I could say I cant believe after all his crowing and boasting that the US hasnt responded to the overwhelming proof that the N Koreans basically played America and were lying through their teeth to D Trump.

However.. Im not surprised he.s not doing anything despite this basically being the equivalent of snorting some phlegm into their spit and hocking a loogey in the US' face.  Jeez at least you.d think we.d say "guess what? we lied too! biggest wargames ever this august.'

anything

 

[Erwin]

WE know the NK have been lying for decades... as has China.  You seriously think that we on these forums are the only people in the US govt who noticed this??  The fact is that we, the public, have NO idea of what high level games are being played.  All the chatter on this board is just hot air - the equivalent of a bunch of senior citizens sitting around at a cafe heatedly debating world affairs... as if they know anything.  

It's better to relax and see what happens over the next year or three.   (Or stand for election and get into the game.)   

Edited July 1, 2018 by Erwin

[Sublime]

No absolutely not Im not naive enough to think the US government doesnt know. Cmon. I give it good odds the info WAS LEAKED from the US government - specifically the only branch left that seems to have ANY testicular fortitude left in it as far as open pushback towards Trump and thats the DoD and even then its been forced out of them largely or theyve had to do it in a way that basically ignores their contradiction of their CinC. See the admission after the NK visit that Trump got a bad deal from 'the pentagon', or that the military is still dealing with climate change as a fact whatever some moron in office thinks, regardless of whether the moron is a democrat or republican. which is good at least in this instance.

I also know we.re not privy to everything declassified the US govt does even, its a big world, however it seems officially there is no response to this thumbing of the nose at the United States.  Mind North Korea was always a problem, and yes I never woulda liked Trump; but again I feel this N Korea issue isnt solely politics or anything, its probably the most volatile situation that really can only end in disaster now IMO in the world.  We know the Norks have been lying to us all along, Im not ignorant of my history.  However we.re transitioning into a crucial time where those crazy bastards could possibly lob nukes at the mainland United States. Moreso than that the N Korean regime is based around a familial dynasty and boogeyman fear of the US means I have misgivings about when that line ends where those nukes will be going and whether or not theyll be on their way to targets... or if theyll rust in the ground like hopefully the rest of the world's stock continue to do

[sburke]

Seems negotiations are not going that well.  I find it hard to believe that it is unrelated to the escalating trade war with China.  Whatever the Trump administration thought they had agreement on in Singapore it would have been predicated on the N Korean's part on where China stood. Now that China finds itself locked in a very adversarial relationship with this administration it is a pretty good bet that whatever adherence there was to sanctions just went by the wayside. N Korea is going to feel their negotiating position just got stronger.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/north-korea-calls-us-attitude-toward-talks-‘regrettable’-rejecting-pompeo’s-claim-meetings-were-‘productive’/ar-AAzGUx9?ocid=spartanntp

Just hours after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo departed North Korea after two days of nuclear negotiations, North Korea sharply criticized the U.S. team's attitude as “regrettable,” and accused the U.S. of making unilateral demands of denuclearization.
 
The remarks from North Korea’s foreign ministry directly contradicted statements made by Pompeo that the visit made “progress on almost all of the central issues” and involved “good-faith negotiations.”

[A Canadian Cat]

Quite frankly the whole thing was never going to go well, even with China cooperating. Trump tore up and threw out the only existing successful de-nuclearization deal anyone has come up with so he starts with negative credibility and the NK regime never had any. All they ever do is say a few kindish words extract some $ or recognition and then renege on anything they agreed to.

To get this done would take cooperation from many allies and lots of coordinated pressure - and that's just to keep China on board

[Erwin]

NK is merely a straw man for the Chinese to tweak the west's noses.  The Chinese have been over-playing their hand and grabbing massive amounts of territory (S China Sea) just like Hitler in the 30's.

The trade war has been in existence for decades - the casualties can be seen in all the shuttered plants and unemployment we've suffered over the last 20+ years.  Finally we're responding is all.

[A Canadian Cat]

9 hours ago, Erwin said:

NK is merely a straw man for the Chinese to tweak the west's noses. 

Oh I am sure it's true about the tweaked noses. I am not so sure about the level of control the Chinese actually have over the Kim government though. Not sure.

9 hours ago, Erwin said:

The trade war has been in existence for decades - the casualties can be seen in all the shuttered plants and unemployment we've suffered over the last 20+ years.  Finally we're responding is all.

LOL none of that plant shuttering and factory unemployment is China's doing. Our US and Canadian and other western country's corporations saw that they could lay off people and move thier manufacturing to China and sell the goods back in the west for cheaper. Those corporations lobbied to create trade deals with no labour, safety or environmental standards so they could avoid the regulations that keep our rivers clean and our workers safe. Since the Chinese people are not free or allowed to seek redress from thier governments none of those things have come about in China at least not really.

Anyway that's way off topic and even more political than this thread already was. I should stop now...

[sburke]

2 hours ago, IanL said:

Oh I am sure it's true about the tweaked noses. I am not so sure about the level of control the Chinese actually have over the Kim government though. Not sure.

LOL none of that plant shuttering and factory unemployment is China's doing. Our US and Canadian and other western country's corporations saw that they could lay off people and move thier manufacturing to China and sell the goods back in the west for cheaper. 

Yep we are responding all right... sort of.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/07/china-trade-war-ivanka-trump-business-shoes-701668

Anyway back on point.  I don't even know what the straw man comment means.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pompeo-shrugs-off-nkoreas-gangster-rebuke-cites-progress/ar-AAzJ5YZ?ocid=spartanntp

More back and forth and lots of spin by N Korea.  Net result though is still lack of clarity as to what if any progress was made.  It doesn't appear so, but in the gamesmanship who knows.

[Erwin]

Am always surprised that anyone thinks that we (the average audience) are being told anything other than government press releases that tell us nothing more than what they want us to know and believe.  And then, many thousands of folks like us sit around like ignorant old men at a cafe yakking about what it all means and how we would do it better etc.  (I do however admit it's a lot of fun to chatter like this.)

Unless one are part of the high level process, one knows next to nothing about this stuff.  What we do know is that China has world domination on its agenda.  Its methods include IP theft, S. China Sea territory grab (which threatens 90% of world trade), dumping of materials to destroy other nations' economies, massive investments in S. America, Africa, Asia and Europe in order to isolate the US and other western interests. 

There was a hope that India would be capable of acting as a regional check on China.  FWIW these two nuclear powers are facing off as we speak at the "3 Corners/Tri-junction Area" of Bhutan.  However, it doesn't seem that India has the strength to dampen Chinese aggressive expansionist schemes.  Essentially, the 1930's are being re-enacted.  What to do about it is the big (and imo only) question.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2017/08/09/why-india-and-china-are-facing-off-over-a-remote-corner-of-the-himalayas

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-india-confrontation-neither-side-wants/

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-20/india-s-faceoff-with-china-is-a-sign-of-the-future

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/heading-china-doka-la-pass

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

Am always surprised that anyone thinks that we (the average audience) are being told anything other than government press releases that tell us nothing more than what they want us to know and believe.  And then, many thousands of folks like us sit around like ignorant old men at a cafe yakking about what it all means and how we would do it better etc.  (I do however admit it's a lot of fun to chatter like this.)

Unless one are part of the high level process, one knows next to nothing about this stuff.  What we do know is that China has world domination on its agenda.  Its methods include IP theft, S. China Sea territory grab (which threatens 90% of world trade), dumping of materials to destroy other nations' economies, massive investments in S. America, Africa, Asia and Europe in order to isolate the US and other western interests. 

There was a hope that India would be capable of acting as a regional check on China.  FWIW these two nuclear powers are facing off as we speak at the "3 Corners/Tri-junction Area" of Bhutan.  However, it doesn't seem that India has the strength to dampen Chinese aggressive expansionist schemes.  Essentially, the 1930's are being re-enacted.  What to do about it is the big (and imo only) question.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2017/08/09/why-india-and-china-are-facing-off-over-a-remote-corner-of-the-himalayas

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-india-confrontation-neither-side-wants/

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-20/india-s-faceoff-with-china-is-a-sign-of-the-future

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/heading-china-doka-la-pass

 

I for one wasn't yakking.  I was yammering.  I am older, I have moved on to yammering at this point.  

China is doing the same thing as everyone else, only in their case it is a state run program versus a global business run program.  The net result for your average person in China is probably little different than your average person in the US.  They want better jobs, a better future for their kids etc.  The west exploited China for hundreds of years, maybe it is payback time, I dunno.  What I do know is a country of a billion people is gonna have a bigger share of the world's economy one way or another.  To expect anything different is just pissing into the wind.  The decades of American industrial economic dominance are long gone.  The world doesn't function that way anymore.  Change sucks and sometimes it is damned disruptive.  The world that kids grow up in now is unrecognizable from the one I grew up in.  For better or worse is something that we can yak/yammer about in the café. Personally I feel a bit lost trying to understand how this generation views things.  The constant immediate connections that are extremely superficial strikes me as really bad, on the other hand they feel connected to the whole world in a way I couldn't imagine.

Either way this harping on America lost belies the fact that America and the world have changed permanently.  You can smash all the weaving machines you want, they'll just make more.  Yeah China is pretty ham fisted in it's approach, but they also have somewhat of a ticking bomb- they need to keep a billion people happy whose expectations are rising as to what they want in a standard of living including social justice and personal freedom.

Interestingly the country with potentially the most risk of Chinese expansion is Russia.  There is another study I ran across a while back by another think tank that talked about the issues the Russian economy faced and Siberia also focusing on Chinese potential intervention.  I'll see if I can dig it up.  Ironically Putin may have given them ideas in how he has dealt with Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-borders-need-to-be-redrawn/why-china-will-reclaim-siberia

Edited July 8, 2018 by sburke

[Erwin]

20 hours ago, sburke said:

I for one wasn't yakking.  I was yammering.  I am older, I have moved on to yammering at this point.  

At least you must still have your teeth...   

 

20 hours ago, sburke said:

Interestingly the country with potentially the most risk of Chinese expansion is Russia.

Yes.  That is a major reason we need to consider Russia as a strategic ally regardless of their adventurism.  Russia is still by far the lesser evil and is not going after global domination as is China (so overtly).

Britain became great by allying with  the 2nd most powerful country in Europe for years (centuries) until those powerful nations imploded and Britain took over as the greatest empire.  While you may be correct that the US is fighting a rearguard action to slow its decline, it makes sense to make friends with the nation(s) who can combine to at least control the new would be "overlords".  I still remember in the 70's/80's everyone was talking about Germany becoming so strong it would "take over the world".  Then in the 90's it was Japan who was so strong economically that it would "take over the world".  My suspicion is that China is where it is because we allowed it by overlooking how opaque and manipulated is their economic data.  (And of course our corporations saw opportunities to make many fast bucks.  But bubbles burst.)

The thing to remember is that what we see as Chinese development and accomplishment is isolated to a very thin stretch of land along their coastline - their economic enterprise zones.  If one travels a few hundred miles into the Chinese hinterland one steps back hundreds/thousands of years to a 2nd world, maybe 3rd world country.  Peasants bathing and washing their clothes in the rivers where they poop, next to grazing water buffaloes is one of my memories.  Coupled with China's totalitarianism and increased desire for control over every aspect of social life via internet censorship etc, this is not a system that we in the west can adopt or tolerate.

It will be fascinating to see if and how China goes the way of those other nations that were "going to rule the world".

[sburke]

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t necessarily see China as going on to rule the world.  More it is that the US experienced some unique phenomena over the 20th century. Industrialization, 2 world wars where the US was never physically impacted (bombed etc) and an increase in overall world trade.  That unique position was never going to be long term sustainable.  it doesn’t mean the US is a necessarily “declining”.  As the standard of living rises in other places in the world, manufacturing trends will continue to change   To your point as those hundreds of millions of people in China (and India) who have not been part of that general trend get pulled in the pressure increases in those places to change.  

Change in China over censorship will have to come from within   I expect it will. The Berlin Wall took a while to fall, but eventually it did  censorship stifles innovation. You can only do so much relying on stealing IP to build your economy.

I suspect this has a lot to do with China’s role in Korea, the last thing they want is a border with someone like S Korea  Nobody wants to flee China to go to N Korea.  

I have been to China a number of times, but only Beijing and Shanghai   However even in that limited scope I saw nothing like my trip to Chennai and I did get to make some trips well out of city center.   

 

[Erwin]

I have happy memories of coughing and spluttering in Beijing.  However, Shanghai and its skyline is is impressive.  I think I caught SARS in some other town - that was a few weeks before it was announced worldwide.  Thank heaven I load up on antibiotics & medicines when I travel.  Otherwise you might not have had the pleasure of my company here.  

[sburke]

N Korea still testing US

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2018/07/12/North-Korea-didnt-show-up-at-meeting-with-US/1531531386783/

[Erwin]

What a surprise...   

 

[danfrodo]

NK still testing?  that's odd.  The Supreme Tweeter assured us they were no longer a threat.  must be some kind of mistake, they cleared destroyed all nukes weeks ago.  This news must be from someone that uses 'facts', which are so outdated now.

[sburke]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

NK still testing?  that's odd.  The Supreme Tweeter assured us they were no longer a threat.  must be some kind of mistake, they cleared destroyed all nukes weeks ago.  This news must be from someone that uses 'facts', which are so outdated now.

well the child prodigy who could drive at 3 did send a very nice letter to the President last week apparently.