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exsonic01

Next Korean war is coming close...

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On 2018. 5. 27. at 1:19 PM, Sublime said:

sigh. politics.

Hmmmmm... at least I tried not to be political about this topic, I only do when "someone" being political first. I will try not to be political more in the future. 

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it wasnt just you. and im guilty of it very often it wasnt personal at all. it was a hypocritical post of me.

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Posted (edited)

Well the summit is about to occur. My wife will be at 30,000 feet for a good part of the day so she may be safe. I on the other hand and my wine collection are about 30 feet above sea level. 

My expectations are they may trade pointers on hair options which could make the summit wildly successful or both parties will sulk in their room passing love letters through intermediaries. Either way nothing substantial will occur but it will be deemed an amazing success, best ever way better than Obama for sure and then Kim wil launch a missile just to show he can and then we’ll begin all over again. 

Any bets?

Edited by sburke

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No takers here.

A NK defector and analyat said exactly what you just said.

Threats/scare - charm or diplomatic offensive-concessions-repeat.

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LOL my big question is "what deal could the US make with NK that would be better than the deal that was just ripped up and thrown out with Iran"? While I can picture a better deal for the world I cannot picture NK (or Iran) actually going for it.

Either way that's my yard stick for measuring the deal. Regardless of how successful the spin misters say the summit might be.

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Errr it is wildly successful and they haven’t even met yet....

In the latest twist in the drama-filled nuclear talks with North Korea's Kim Jong Un, President Donald Trump announced on the eve of their historic meeting that he will be leaving Singapore early because the nuclear negotiations have moved "more quickly than expected."

That was before the two had even met, and it was not clear whether it was good news or not.

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You guys haven’t  been in negotiations with foreign governments, have you?:lol:   I have (not about nukes, lol—although one of my former law professors had done that). And even with the sane governments, many times you’d think every session was the Paris Peace Talks! Much pre-negotiation wrangling, maneuvering, and shouts of “Yo Mama” or smooth “Hey, nice suit!” goes on—mostly behind the scenes—sometimes for long, long periods. So I’ve had a few chuckles over the last couple of months, as newspapers followed the bouncy ball: summit is on....nope, now it’s off....nope, now it’s on, etc., ad nauseum!

We won’t really know crap until it’s over.

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2 hours ago, mjkerner said:

We won’t really know crap until it’s over.

Agreed.  It's all propaganda and BS for the masses at present (and probably the future as well).

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2 hours ago, mjkerner said:

We won’t really know crap until it’s over.

I am not sure we'll even know then....

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4 hours ago, sburke said:

I am not sure we'll even know then....

Yeah, stuff is still coming out about WW II that subtly—and sometimes not so subtly—can alter our perception of the event. And there is still important stuff locked up in the archives. And then there is the stuff that never even made it into the archives...

:ph34r:

Michael

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9 hours ago, Michael Emrys said:
13 hours ago, sburke said:

I am not sure we'll even know then....

Yeah, stuff is still coming out about WW II that subtly—and sometimes not so subtly—can alter our perception of the event. And there is still important stuff locked up in the archives. And then there is the stuff that never even made it into the archives...

True but LOL I think he means when the nukes fly and we all die we'll be unaware of what happened either.

Or the fact that I went there means I am just in a dark place... ;)

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Posted (edited)

Yesterday's summit deal was really really bad deal. I think Trump is dreaming of Nobel peace prize way too much, so that he is doing the same mistake again. 

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/06/12/trump-should-give-kim-30-days-to-produce-denuclearization-plan-or-intensify-sanctions.html

This is just opinion, not official news article. But I agree with this one. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/12/asia/kim-trump-success-for-north-korea-intl/index.html?no-st=1528824033

And yeah, I agree with this one too. Crazy Kim doesn't even need to give up anything. There's no "CVID" in the agreement paper. 

If Trump really thinks that he can "deal & solve" with crazy Kim dynasty and DPRK with the same methods of last two decades, then this mistake will eventually return to him, maybe during his re-election campaign or other time. They will cheat us again and they will come back with better nukes in their hands. Then, what Trump will going to say? He can't do anything at that moment if he is under other burdens on his hands.

I don't know what is the mind of Trump and his cabinet. But if we can't do strict and broad CVID within very short period of time, we will fail. If DPRK does not accept that, we need to cancel the deal and increase the level of pressure to DPRK. 

https://www.jpost.com/International/Did-Trump-achieve-what-Obama-couldnt-559770

Look at this, even Israeli paper is criticizing this talk and Trump XD  lol I really didn't expect this. All of those shows how bad the Trump's deal was. 

Edited by exsonic01

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Posted (edited)

Not to mention that Kim would be mad to trust him after he unilaterally abrogated the Iran deal.  :rolleyes:

If I were @dragonwynn I wouldn't stop scripting anything based on the 'Singapore Dog & Pony Show':D

Edited by Sgt.Squarehead

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54 minutes ago, exsonic01 said:

Yesterday's summit deal was really really bad deal. I think Trump is dreaming of Nobel peace prize way too much, so that he is doing the same mistake again.

Possibly or he just got played. That statement would have been a good starting point coming out of a meeting of the Secretary of State and the Foreign Minister. You know a framework for discussions between lower level officials working towards a leaders summit in a year or two or three once there was an actionable deal in place.

I think the veteran NK watcher I heard interviewed this morning summed it up (sorry I cannot remember his name - or was it a she cause there were a few good points from a number of people on CBC this morning) by saying: Kim just said the same vague things that previous NK leaders have agreed to six or eight times over the decades and they never followed through on any of it and Kim got a massive boost of recognition and likely if not an official reduction in sanctions (none were on the table) but an opportunity to work the back door with China and perhaps SK now that the "maximum pressure" talk is done. And he got a suspension of military exercises. In other words Kim got what he wanted, recognition, a relaxing of the sanctions - at least practically, a shift in the alliance and more time. All Trump got was a photo op. I don't think that even Sanders and Conway can spin this as a better deal than the one he ripped up with Iran. I'm sure they will try but how could that hold any water at all.

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This is what we got in perspective.

Bill Clinton, 1993
After nine days of talks at the UN, the US and North Korea essentially agreed to keep talking, based on their mutual support of 1992’s “North-South Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
In that landmark 1992 declaration, Pyongyang agreed “not to test, manufacture, produce, receive, possess, store, deploy, or use nuclear weapons; to use nuclear energy solely for peaceful purposes; and not to possess facilities for nuclear reprocessing and uranium enrichment.”
In the 1993 US-North Korea pact, both sides gave “assurances against the threat and use of force, including nuclear weapons.” This ultimately resulted in the 1994 “agreed framework” towards a nuclear-free peninsula that is considered the closest move towards a successful deal.
Eight years of talks later, it all fell apart.

George W. Bush, 2005
After the Clinton-led framework failed, China helped push North Korea to denuclearize, via the “Six Party Talks.” On their fourth meeting, in Beijing in 2005, the US, China, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, and Japan put out a detailed joint statement to say:
North Korea “committed to abandoning all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs.”
The US “affirmed that it has no nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula and has no intention to attack or invade” North Korea.
All sides agreed the 1992 declaration should be “observed and implemented.”
All parties pledged “economic cooperation in the fields of energy, trade and investment” with North Korea.
After multiple rounds of talks, George W. Bush removed North Korea from the US’s list of state sponsors of terrorism in 2008. However, talks collapsed in 2009 when North Korea fired a test missile after disagreeing with the other parties about inspections and verification of denuclearization.
Barack Obama’s administration ratcheted up sanctions as Kim Jong Un increased militarization. But there were no further negotiations.

Donald Trump, 2018
The Trump-Kim joint statement released today (June 12) makes no mention of the 1992 declaration that was the basis for previous agreements.
Instead, it references this year’s “Panmunjom Declaration for Peace,” the agreement between North and South Korea to formally end their decades-long state of war. That declaration uses less specific language about the North’s denuclearization, saying both sides “confirmed the common goal” of “a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.”
The Trump-Kim agreement also says that Kim reaffirmed “his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” and that North Korea “commits to work towards the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
Both sides have agreed to the repatriation of the remains of prisoners of war and soldiers missing in action from the Korean War.
The joint statement was overshadowed after the summit, when Trump appeared to make a huge, surprise concession to North Korea, agreeing to pull US troops out of the region and stop joint military exercises with South Korea. That’s exactly the scenario that Beijing has been pushing for for a year—but the US Department of Defense said it had no advance knowledge of any such moves.

 

Yeah he got played.  The only real hope here is that Kim actually does want something more and figures to use that nuclear bargaining chip to insure he gets it and will eventually trade it in for whatever he wants, but I kind of doubt he'll really give it up for now.  Why bother when he seems to be getting everything he wants without actually giving anything other than vague assurances.

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51 minutes ago, sburke said:

Why bother when he seems to be getting everything he wants without actually giving anything other than vague assurances.

Yep - worked for his father more than once.

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Wont be a War.....allied casualties would be extremely high indeed. Blimey in the UK what about 400 or so died in Afgan over a period of 12 years and the public wasn't happy.

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15 minutes ago, Wodin said:

Wont be a War.....allied casualties would be extremely high indeed. Blimey in the UK what about 400 or so died in Afgan over a period of 12 years and the public wasn't happy.

That is a rational assumption.  Do I need to point out the weak point(s) in that logic?  :D 

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Jeebus, guys, does anyone, including CNN, actually pay attention?  It's only a Memorandum of Understanding, for chrissakes...there is no final agreement. (And getting that in writing from the Norks is no mean feat.)  The actual process is just starting!  There will be working sessions (with Bolton carrying the warter?) to follow.  Whether the actual agreement comes out good or bad, we don't know yet.

And, just FYI, Trump didn't agree to pull our troops out of SK,  he said he would like to at some point. 

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Posted (edited)

I don’t think the issue is everybody else’s understanding. The administration isn’t clear at all what it is doing. Did Trump need to meet with Kim to get a memorandum of understanding?  The meeting itself was a win for Kim and it isn’t clear what if anythng we got in return. This memorandum is more vague than both previous agreements which didn’t result in some clear wins for the DPRK. 

As to what Trump agreed to in their private meeting, we don’t know but if Pence is confused as well as GOP Senate leadership I can’t say I understand what Trump means when he says something. He backtracks so much it isn’t like you can take what he says at any one moment as the truth. 

Edited by sburke

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Yes, lol, Steve, there is that! As usual, only The Donald knows (or doesn’t), and only time will tell how it comes out in the end. But I never like discussing politics on these forums, and am surprised I even commented in this thread, plus, it’s supposed to be off limits here too, so I’m gonna bow out and kill me some pixel-Norks in CMSF.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, mjkerner said:

Yes, lol, Steve, there is that! As usual, only The Donald knows (or doesn’t), and only time will tell how it comes out in the end. But I never like discussing politics on these forums, and am surprised I even commented in this thread, plus, it’s supposed to be off limits here too, so I’m gonna bow out and kill me some pixel-Norks in CMSF.

LOL yeah I think the only reason it has been running is it hasn't really gotten inflammatory.  You are right though, it is time better spent playing CM.  Which oddly enough is what I say almost every day at work to myself when sitting in another inane meeting..."I could make much better use of this time ………."

Edited by sburke

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This is the true reality of DPRK. No propaganda, no politics, but the true testimony from a person who escaped from DPRK for her life. (Not only her, but also the most of DPRK defectors have more or less similar opinion) True face of DPRK communism is pure evil. I really can't understand why everyone is hyped about such peace deal with crazy Kim. Everyone knows what happened after Neville Chamberlain made Munich agreement with Hitler!!  PEACE always looks cool and sounds great. But if anyone too obsessed with PEACE and commit a stupid mistake, then the outcome will be unfathomable. Peace without weapon and will to fight is just surrender, nothing more. I would rather be a person who prepare more weapon and ammunition, rather than a person who open the door to pure evil in the name of PEACE.  

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/391788-graham-anything-trump-negotiates-with-north-korea-will-have-to-come-to

Trump's deal need to pass the congress. Let's see what will going to happen. But many senators and congressmen are worrying about the deal. 

Edited by exsonic01

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