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exsonic01

Next Korean war is coming close...

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People are well aware of how Clinton and previous Presidents got conned by NK.  My sense is that Trumpy is a much more real world pragmatic guy who is used to dealing with lying scumbags in his property development biz.   But, as you say, the key is whether pressure can be kept up on China to prevent backsliding.

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The "hairpiece" is actually a vx sniffing creature, so it will spot the poison burger.  Then he'll eat it anyway cause he doesn't take advice.

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2 hours ago, Raptorx7 said:

Yeah Trump is VERY familiar with those types, takes one to know one.

And it's a good thing when there is so much at stake.  All previous presidents got conned by China (& NK).

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Well, if. you beleve what "Deep Throat" (and.then some) QAnon has been  saying   and showing on 8Chan  in  a  bunch of posts  (some of the 960 to date, to a readership of 22 million +),  Kim Jong un is yesterdays's news  and there will be one Korea, which won't come  with a  red star!  KJu has already  formally posed for the offical photo after the joint  SK/NK   talks,  and  he  looks beaten.  Consequently, I shan't lie awake nights worrying WW III is going to happen there. The ground combat would,   though,   make  for an interesting CM game.  Urban sprawl has probably changed  things considerably,  but the  problem  with SK back in the. late 1970s. and early 80s when I worked on the K-TOW (Korean-TOW). analyses at Hughes, was that there wasn't any. real defrensible. terrain until the  Han River,  and stopping the  gigantic NK armored  force from  crossing it in strength was  essential to holding SK.  K-TOW  was  built around a force. of Hughes 500  helicopters armed  with 4 x  TOW each. We  did sensitivity studies (no, not the snowflake kind!) in Operations Analysis to determine,  for  example,  what the utility was of going  to the major expense  of mast mounted sights, as opposed to cheaper roof or the baseline chin mounts.   The. last required  unmasking the entire  fuselage in  order to engage!

Regards,

John  Kettler

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Seriously doubt any war there and not losing any sleep over this.  Trump is playing a good game getting Bolton, a known Hawk, in there b4 mtg with NK.  It's all psychology. 

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On 24/03/2018 at 6:23 AM, John Kettler said:

Well, if. you beleve what "Deep Throat" (and.then some) QAnon has been  saying   and showing on 8Chan  in  a  bunch of posts  (some of the 960 to date, to a readership of 22 million +)

However you present it it is nothing more than a conspiracy theory.

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Posted (edited)

Things are rapidly moving, and US is pushing China really hard.  

US is considering visa limit, indefinite tariff and investment restriction against China.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/13/trump-is-considering-imposing-tariffs-on-60-billion-of-chinese-goods-reuters-citing-source.html

Unconfirmed reports of US support for Tibet. "Emperor" Xi will not gonna happy about it

http://www.savetibet.org/us-congress-confirms-support-for-funding-for-tibet-programs-in-2018-budget/

 

Today, some reports are saying that Kim Jung Un (or at least very very top-level high profile) is secretly visiting China

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-26/north-korean-leader-kim-jong-un-is-said-to-be-visiting-china

IMO Kim is now feeling that we are really serious more than ever, and probably got scared so he went to his big boss' home, asking for help. :lol: Some says that this secret visit to China is act of fleeing, after Kim feels that the uncertainty about his and regime's future. :D Please remind that those mentions are just speculations, but it is true that Kim or his relative or trustworthy high-level profile is visiting China. 

On 2018. 3. 24. at 2:23 AM, John Kettler said:

Urban sprawl has probably changed  things considerably,  but the  problem  with SK back in the. late 1970s. and early 80s when I worked on the K-TOW (Korean-TOW). analyses at Hughes, was that there wasn't any. real defrensible. terrain until the  Han River,  and stopping the  gigantic NK armored  force from  crossing it in strength was  essential to holding SK.  K-TOW  was  built around a force. of Hughes 500  helicopters armed  with 4 x  TOW each. 

Northern part of the Seoul become very urbanized, and there are lots of structures and building north of the Han River when compared to 1970s. Any armored column who pushed inside the metropolitan area would have very bad day. Things are changed so much, and major battle plans are also changed a lot. AFAIK major part of US-RoK army OP is no more defense & counter strike. Rather, it is mostly preemptive strike and continuous offensive, but not sure about detail. 

On 2018. 3. 24. at 8:48 AM, Erwin said:

Seriously doubt any war there and not losing any sleep over this.  Trump is playing a good game getting Bolton, a known Hawk, in there b4 mtg with NK.  It's all psychology. 

I agree getting Mr. Bolton in is kinda working. Everyone now feels that we are dead serious after his appointment. It is good pushing to RoK, DPRK and PRC. However, I think there are still a good possibility of radical action, because I think DPRK will never gonna give up the nuke, and never gonna accept any suggestion to threaten or weaken his regime.

Giving up nuke will might bring the coup from KPA hard-liner generals, and Kim's regime will be threatened because hard-liners will going to think that Kim is too young and weak. Like all dictators of communism, Kim must looks strong and cruel. Any weak behavior will bring uncertainty to his regime and will threaten his position by hard-liner generals. That is why Kim executed his uncle and other generals during the early stage of his regime. On top of that, he saw what happened to Gaddafi after denuclearization of Libya. That is why IMO he can't accept the total denuclearization and full scale inspection. But we'll see what will going to happen.

Again, I wish the miracle happens like voluntary denuclearization of DPRK. But that is really a miracle.... 

Edited by exsonic01

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I do not think anyone involved truly wants reunification -- via diplomacy or war. There's nothing to be gained, hence the conflict has been frozen for decades. Fear sells and there's massive Military Industrial Complexes on all sides. Barking, shaking fists and feeding the media allows one to retain relevance. Nuclear weapons are nothing new. I think just about anyone who's anyone these days has at least two. No one is overly worried about Pakistan and India, and they constantly get into skirmishes. I say, there are many more pressing issues plaguing the western world than some little hermit that thinks it's still the 1950s.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, DerKommissar said:

I do not think anyone involved truly wants reunification -- via diplomacy or war. There's nothing to be gained, hence the conflict has been frozen for decades. Fear sells and there's massive Military Industrial Complexes on all sides. Barking, shaking fists and feeding the media allows one to retain relevance. Nuclear weapons are nothing new. I think just about anyone who's anyone these days has at least two. No one is overly worried about Pakistan and India, and they constantly get into skirmishes. I say, there are many more pressing issues plaguing the western world than some little hermit that thinks it's still the 1950s.

It is not about reunification but about denuclearization. Trump already mentioned to Xi on the phone that he is not interested in the fate of Kim Dynasty, saying if DPRK gives up nuke then US will not gonna touch DPRK system. 

And another Military Industrial Complex conspiracy believer.... I lost my worlds. Well, before I finish my reply, search for the revenue of top 5 MICs and compare them with other companies. You will found out that the sum of revenue of top 5 MIC are less than a half of Walmart or GM. Do you know how much profit margin of Apple last year and top 5 MICs? If MICs are so massive and influential, MS or Samsung or Walmart CEO and board members are secretly controlling the entire world with Freemason, right? 

Edited by exsonic01

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http://time.com/5216544/north-korea-kim-jong-un-beijing-xi-jinping-donald-trump-denuclearization/

https://www.inquisitr.com/4842964/kim-jong-uns-visit-to-china-may-mean-north-koreas-nuclear-program-is-complete-according-to-time/

Some experts are saying that the visitation of Kim to PRC may implies Kim wish to show his will to continue the nuke program and will not yield to western nations. Or, Kim wish to talk to Xi that DPRK's nuke program is ready finished, and he wish to assure more support / supply. 

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2138797/russia-wants-build-another-bridge-north-korea-so-trade-doesnt

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/03/24/russia-wants-to-build-a-bridge-to-north-korea-literally/

Despite of all those sanctions, Russia recently decided to restart the bridge building between DPRK and Russia, this may suggest that Russia will resume its DPRK support/trade program. 

This is already cold war 2 in Asia instead of Europe, PRC + DPRK + Russia vs RoK + Japan + US. It seems that DPRK-US tension regarding denuclearization will not going to be finished soon. 

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14 hours ago, exsonic01 said:

It is not about reunification but about denuclearization. Trump already mentioned to Xi on the phone that he is not interested in the fate of Kim Dynasty, saying if DPRK gives up nuke then US will not gonna touch DPRK system. 

And another Military Industrial Complex conspiracy believer.... I lost my worlds. Well, before I finish my reply, search for the revenue of top 5 MICs and compare them with other companies. You will found out that the sum of revenue of top 5 MIC are less than a half of Walmart or GM. Do you know how much profit margin of Apple last year and top 5 MICs? If MICs are so massive and influential, MS or Samsung or Walmart CEO and board members are secretly controlling the entire world with Freemason, right? 

It's a lot of hot words escaping from the friction between two geopolitical plates. How come politicians are not asking for the denuclearization of Pakistan or India, or plenty other countries? This flavour of the year is about the tug-of-war in Korea, which has been going on and off for 50 years without any changes. This is just another rumbling that will come and pass without consequence.

Before you lose your worlds, I am not referring to any specific conspiracy -- but a model of supply and demand (Complexes not Complex). Geopolitical tensions and the mere threat for mobilization creates demand. Demand that allows for investing more money in one's military budget. As the ruling party, you would want demand for your government's services and your industry. If all goes well, you can increase your public support and create factories, security and jobs. It can also make headlines really /pop/.

Walmart and Apple are massive, but they mostly sell consumer products. The military industry mostly relies on government contracts, and there is nothing wrong with that. I am not suggesting any conspiracy here. I am not making an ethical or political argument. I am stating the audience cares about potential threats to their safety, and are rarely interested in frozen conflicts with hermit states. Traditional journalism is struggling to be relevant and there was a lot of elections happening recently. Is it possible that Cold War 2 may just be a popular pathos?

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It's all posturing, the calculus hasn't changed one iota.....Frankly the best bet would be for America to let the Koreas sort their own issues out, but that just ain't going to happen is it? 

Far too many $$$s to be made by both the media and the MIC.  :rolleyes:

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58 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

Frankly the best bet would be for America to let the Koreas sort their own issues out,

Well sure...

58 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

but that just ain't going to happen is it?

But that would only work if Russia and China also let the Koreas sort out their own issues too. :D

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Posted (edited)

To be fair the US position is a little different (they do have quite a few troops & weapons stationed on Korean soil, whereas the Chinese & Russians, to date, do not).....But I don't disagree.  ;)

Edited by Sgt.Squarehead

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, DerKommissar said:

 How come politicians are not asking for the denuclearization of Pakistan or India, or plenty other countries?

India and Pakistan developed the nuke during cold-war era and US and Soviet had their own plan and thinking about their nukes. It is totally different story from the situation of 2018. On top of that, the fundamental difference between DPRK and your examples is the stability and reliability of DPRK system. At least modern India and Pakistan is not dynasty. What happens if hardliners of DPRK attempt a coup and get the control of nuke? Another issue is the credibility. DPRK has been ignored every single treaty, promise, agreement and etc.... and they developed long range missiles and weaponized nukes despite of all those talks, supports, or sanctions. Kim's regime just cannot be trusted at all. Risk of DPRK nuke is fundamentally and entirely different problem. Yeah, his nuke and missiles are not even close to the level of US or Russians and hard to threat US mainland now, but it is matter of time after he get one operational. Not to mention DPRK nuke will be threat to our allies like Japan and ANZAC. Plus, DPRK nuke will bring next level of nuke domino. 

13 hours ago, DerKommissar said:

This is just another rumbling that will come and pass without consequence.

We'll see what will happen. 

13 hours ago, DerKommissar said:

Before you lose your worlds, I am not referring to any specific conspiracy -- but a model of supply and demand (Complexes not Complex). Geopolitical tensions and the mere threat for mobilization creates demand. Demand that allows for investing more money in one's military budget. As the ruling party, you would want demand for your government's services and your industry. If all goes well, you can increase your public support and create factories, security and jobs. It can also make headlines really /pop/.

Walmart and Apple are massive, but they mostly sell consumer products. The military industry mostly relies on government contracts, and there is nothing wrong with that. I am not suggesting any conspiracy here. I am not making an ethical or political argument. I am stating the audience cares about potential threats to their safety, and are rarely interested in frozen conflicts with hermit states. Traditional journalism is struggling to be relevant and there was a lot of elections happening recently. Is it possible that Cold War 2 may just be a popular pathos?

The basic problem of mentioning MICs is that people, including you sir, way too much overestimates their ability and influence. Profit margin and annual revenue of those MICs are barely close to 1% of total GDP of US, and not comparable to top 10 US companies. They are small companies, and they are not 'specially treated' by politicians like liberals or hollywood movies depict. MICs are just same companies like others, wish to make profit and survive. Defense industry is very competitive and it is very hard to make a significant margin from the current system. Jobs? Yes, they can make jobs, but do you know how many jobs GM created, and how many jobs top 5 MICs created last year? Can you find any weapons or defense-related contents are included in top 10 US exports list last year?  Position and scale of defense industry is not that massive neither politically influential like some people think. I wish to point this out. 

Edited by exsonic01

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

they do have quite a few troops & weapons stationed on Korean soil, whereas the Chinese & Russians, to date, do not

This is because Kim Il Sung (first king of Kim Dynasty, the man who initiated Korean War) refuse PLA and Russian forces inside DPRK territory back in 1950s. PLA stationed in DPRK until 1958, and Mao really wanted to continue the station of PLA forces inside DPRK, but grandpa Kim strongly wanted to remove them. DPRK-Soviet-PRC relations were much more complex than nowdays. DPRK-PRC relation was really bad around 1958 after withdrawal of PLA troops, and Kim tried to close to Soviet. On the other hand, after ~10 yrs later, during Sino-Soviet border conflict, Kim supported Mao. In my opinion, grandpa Kim never fully trusted PRC and Soviet. 

Also, grandpa Kim was afraid of too much intervention or influence from foreign communist nations, and he doesn't want pro-PRC or pro-Soviet communists take power inside DPRK politics (which could be the potential threat to Kim Dynasty) so he purged almost all pro-foreign DPRK generals and politicians after Korean war. IMO politics around Kim family is more cruel and cold-blooded than any mafia around the world. 

This is the reason why there are no PLA or Russian army in DPRK. Fair now? :)

Edited by exsonic01

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I don't disagree with anything you say.....However I think it is also true to say that the presence of US troops and the continuing state of 'armistice' are both things that should have long ago been resolved, for the benefit of all parties involved (maybe excepting Raytheon et al).  ;)

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