Putin seems to be incrementally taking over Georgia

[Erwin]

+1   China is and has been our biggest enemy for many years now.  They are an "existential" threat to the entire west cos of their attempt to control the S. China Sea - partly cos they are llarge oil reserves there, and China is oil poor (their Achilles heel).  Also, something like 90% of world trade sails through that region.  So, their actions are a direct threat to not only the US but the entire west, and an attempt to dominate the world.

In addition, just like there is a much larger group of Islamic sympathizers for radical Islamic terrorists even tho' they may not indulge in attacks themselves, China has encouraged N. Korea for years, snickering behind their smiles about how N. Korea humiliates the "great and powerful" US and generally freaks the US out.  China is largely responsible for the current situation and hopefully can be called to account for the actions of their proxy client state.

[Armorgunner]

19 hours ago, Saint_Fuller said:

It's the tank thing more or less. I'm kind of a treadhead, and I thought it was a neat thing.

 

That aside, yes, there are reports.
The HRW on the executions in Staropromyslovsky.

Novye Aldi.

Alkhan-Yurt.

And to cap it off, here's the NYT reporting on the shooting of 40 refugees by OMON troops in the "safe corridor" out of Grozny.

Besides one man (and that case never actually took shape because he went underground and it got suspended in 2005 because of his disappearance), no one was taken to court, let alone convicted, for any of these massacres to my knowledge.

I dont know why. But to me, it seems quite often. In "incidents" like that, the unit Omon's name come up.

[Armorgunner]

4 hours ago, Sublime said:

If I had a very violent knife fight with someone down the st and since then theyd turned their house into an armed camp and continued from purchasing knives to guns to now having a TOW missile perched on their balcony aimed at my house and were regularly distributing leaflets in my neighborhood about their intention to blow me into ash.. Id end the threat sooner than later. like when the TOW launcher's missile comes in the mail next week.

I think that, if N.K were an isolated Island nation in the Middle of the pacific. That would alredy had happened. But the chance of an N.K retaliation against S.K would be near 100%. And with Seoul in strikning distance of NK artillery. Things can go really bad, fast.

[Sgt.Squarehead]

2 hours ago, Armorgunner said:

I dont know why. But to me, it seems quite often. In "incidents" like that, the unit Omon's name come up.

Yeah, I noticed that too.....There's a hint of 'death-squad' about that bunch.

2 hours ago, Armorgunner said:

I think that, if N.K were an isolated Island nation in the Middle of the pacific. That would alredy had happened. But the chance of an N.K retaliation against S.K would be near 100%. And with Seoul in strikning distance of NK artillery. Things can go really bad, fast.

Doubt it, you'd have to bring an invasion force well within the range of his potential missile umbrella and there's always the possibility that Kim would go asymmetrical and perhaps load up a diesel-sub with a nuke and use it as the ultimate in VBIEDs.

Edited July 29, 2017 by Sgt.Squarehead

[Armorgunner]

11 hours ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

 

Doubt it, you'd have to bring an invasion force well within the range of his potential missile umbrella and there's always the possibility that Kim would go asymmetrical and perhaps load up a diesel-sub with a nuke and use it as the ultimate in VBIEDs.

Why don't just bring a few SSGN's, and SSN's. Each of the four Ohio class SSGN, has 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Take out the nuclear infrastructure, radars, and as much of the high alltitude covering SAM's. Then bunkerbusters from B2's, covered by F22's?

I don't really know, as im not the Commander in chief of the US armed forces. But im sure he would have a plan, for that scenario 

Edited July 30, 2017 by Armorgunner

[Sublime]

oh idk. agent orange seems to be winging it

[Armorgunner]

You don't like leaf's for some reason?

[Sublime]

eh?

[Armorgunner]

Wasn't agent orange some kind of deleafing tool in Vietnam War? 

[Sgt.Squarehead]

Defoliating Agent Orange:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agent_Orange

But I'm fairly confident that's not where 'The Sublime One' was going with this. 

Edited July 31, 2017 by Sgt.Squarehead

[Armorgunner]

11 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

 

But I'm fairly confident that's not where 'The Sublime One' was going with this. 

I know, just a bad joke from my side 

[Vergeltungswaffe]

Not nearly as bad as his.

[Sgt.Squarehead]

2 hours ago, Armorgunner said:

I know, just a bad joke from my side 

I knew you knew, just bantering along. 

Edited July 31, 2017 by Sgt.Squarehead

[Kinophile]

For the giggles of it, let's muse about an actual NK war. 

Essentially, I suspect that the only way for the US to "win" a NK war is by a gigantic, overwhelming, accurate,  stand-off surprise attack.

US would need to

0)Get SK on board

1)Protect SK 

2)Prevent/negate NK counter attack

3)foment widespread rebellion/chaos within NK. 

Only missiles, PGM provide the necessary ability to strike from afar. 

US would need to map/pinpoint 80%(say) of the artillery in range of Seoul, and destroy it with 30 minutes. Then monitor and destroy anything that fires/moves within 10km of the border. 

Simultaneously, strike every single identified piece of the NK surface command structure, from the top to local town level - police, military, civilian, media/propaganda, nuclear, - continuously and incessantly. 

You'd still be missing the majority of critical C&C infrastructure hidden inside mountains, but you'd startvdisconnecting the general populace from the government. Probably best to hit coastal areas the hardest. 

You'd need tens of thousands of missiles. 

The initial NK civilian cost would be enormous (say, 50K?) with it rapidly increasing from the breakdown of food infrastructure, military crackdown, internal chaos. 

Its hard to find a particularly solid reason to initiate such a strike, but it would have to be a surprise. 

 

Edited July 31, 2017 by kinophile

[Sgt.Squarehead]

I think China would have to give it the green light too.....Remember last time! 

China has made it very clear that they do not want a US ally on their border, they view North Korea as an intransigent but strategically useful buffer.

[Wicky]

Yes small matter of Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty ...

US is stymied unless China disavows young Kim chap.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-39663663

[IMHO]

Why would anyone want to topple Kim after all?  Him being a lunatic is a media circus to stoke ratings and misunderstanding of NK's old-fashioned language they use when they speak to their own people. In reality his actions are quite rational in his own way and certainly NK does not want to start a suicidal fight to end Kim dynasty quickly and efficiently. He just wants an ICBM not to follow the Gaddafy fate. Hey, NK is now more laisser-faire capitalist country than US itself.

[IMHO]

11 hours ago, kinophile said:

For the giggles of it, let's muse about an actual NK war....

Its hard to find a particularly solid reason to initiate such a strike, but it would have to be a surprise.

1. Seoul is the biggest metro-area in the world, there's no way one can hope an evacuation of so large a populace may go unnoticed. And if NK gets wind of it - this is casus belli for them, they'll strike first. So here we get tens if not hundreds thousands dead on SK side and massive damage to SK economy.
2. Hundreds of thousands dead on NK side and whatever there's of an economy at that side will lay in shambles.
3. After everything finishes there will be a whole country to feed and to rebuild to at least modern standards. If German reunification costs are estimated at 2 trillion Euro it will arguably be higher in case of NK. NK starts at much much lower levels, SK is much wealthier per-person now than West Germany was back then, German reunification was peaceful - no war damage.
4. The gap between SK and NK in terms of everyday culture and behaviour is so immense one may expect than one or two generations of older North Koreans will never adapt to a different system. Costs to feed, moral stress to the whole society etc.

So the majority of South Koreans believe US holds SK a hostage to its saber-rattling with Kim.

Edited August 1, 2017 by IMHO

[Kinophile]

Good points. 

But let's say the amazing happens - China is distracted/disavows NK, say after NK attacks/sinks a smaller US warship, or conducts a serious cyber warfare attack. Whichever. 

What US military technology could enable it to inflict massive damage, with minimal ground pounding? 

Missiles, PGM. A LOT of them. 

SK would lose a lot of civilians but its economy would not be in a shambles - it would take a dive, but after the first week of constant US missile strike suppression on anything that moves/fires north of the DMZ, the North's ability to further damage Seoul would be heavily curtailed. 

The strategic approach would be a hyper air/missile war, Gulf War 2 x10, with the objective being to degrade the internal military structure. 

Its probable the NK would require two separate, successive wars. First to degrade it internally and provide for much greater infiltration/surveillance. Then a second war to full decapitate/crush it. 

I agree, US absolutely should not move troops north. But it has the technology and military infrastructure to fight an entire war from a distance, if the sole and stated aim is to severely degrade, not conquer. 

Naturally, the big question is the nuclear threat. But give the US another 5 years, with double/tripling of its BMD research efforts and it would achieve Damn good odds of interception. 

I'd bet on the US. If it did go full on, the sheer industrial power and technological gap would guarantee its victory. 

Edited August 1, 2017 by kinophile

[LukeFF]

10 hours ago, IMHO said:

Why would anyone want to topple Kim after all?  Him being a lunatic is a media circus to stoke ratings and misunderstanding of NK's old-fashioned language they use when they speak to their own people. In reality his actions are quite rational in his own way and certainly NK does not want to start a suicidal fight to end Kim dynasty quickly and efficiently. He just wants an ICBM not to follow the Gaddafy fate. Hey, NK is now more laisser-faire capitalist country than US itself.

Can I have some of what you are smoking?

[IMHO]

3 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Can I have some of what you are smoking?

Not yet, you'll have to wait six more months 

[Sgt.Squarehead]

Particularly worrying piece on the NK situation in The Atlantic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/lindsey-graham-north-korea/535578/

Lindsey Graham might be a bit of a loose-cannon, but he does appear to have the ear of The Donald. 

[IMHO]

8 hours ago, LukeFF said:

Can I have some of what you are smoking?

Hope you're not offended by the joke in my first reply - was on a run, had no time to type a proper reply and your post was too tempting 

1. NK being a threat solely belongs to inflamed minds in DC and network newsrooms because it does not want anything from US except to be left alone. They have no ambition for a global Juche Khalifate, they don't want unification with SK, and even their meagre (by the standards of SEA) territorial clams are all against China not any other country. So whatever weapon systems they may possess there's no basis for a conflict.
2. NK now is no Stalinist centralized economy - over 50% of GDP is produced by private sector. May be cautiously but they're going the path of China and Vietnam reforms. They already have their own nouveau riches with an interest in saving their capitals. In ten years from now NK will be a "normal" autocratic oligarchy with influential nobility collectively affecting the decision making process.

Edited August 2, 2017 by IMHO

[IMHO]

@Sgt.Squarehead, I believe NK is a very telling example of what a dangerous times the world has to pass. During the last 30 years US got used to be the only superpower in the world capable of achieving any objectives in any corner of the world. And popular US mindset seems to still perceive it this way. But by now US is only the third largest economy in the world (if you count EU as one entity). China is now sufficiently larger than US and will be 50% larger than the States in five years. Even now China is stronger in SEA than US forces there and Chinese military will be comparable if not stronger than US globally in 10-15 years. Chinese popular politics is VERY nationalistic so once the thought that they have the biggest stick in the world settles in their minds they will behave very assertively. If US continues to ignore the realities of the world and continues to behave as if they own the whole party it may well happen that US popular opinion may demand from their leaders something they cannot deliver without triggering a Third World War.

Like it's very funny when Donald The Greatest says US will hold Russia and China accountable for NK missile program. NK has had capability to hit Russia and China territory long ago so new NK missiles do not change the calculus for both. Why should they do US bidding?

Edited August 2, 2017 by IMHO

[DreDay]

10 hours ago, IMHO said:

Like it's very funny when Donald The Greatest says US will hold Russia and China accountable for NK missile program. NK has had capability to hit Russia and China territory long ago so new NK missiles do not change the calculus for both. Why should they do US bidding?

I completely agree. This situation is even more ironic, given our president's insistence on negotiating concessions for any friendly foreign policy move on our side. Well...we are about to see the reverse side of such primitive diplomacy.