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John Kettler

Recent combat vids from Ukraine

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Posted (edited)

There was an anniversary of Luhansk bombing not so long ago. It might be enlightening on how deep the conflict between East and West of Ukraine goes. Western Ukrainian Su-25 bombs the very civilian center of Eastern city of Luhansk right in the middle of the day. 02.06.2014, there's no L/DNR yet Ukrainian Army was doing Shock and Awe against civilian population just in case.

Surveillance camera (bombing starts at 01:36)

View from the ground

Then-advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine comments on the bombing. He confirms the bombing was done by Ukrainian plane and offers no excuse, just says it: "It was one slight movement of pilot's hand that led to negative consequences..." Says there's no reason to blame the pilot.

https://rutube.ru/video/196b6fc4a2ee62f8c49e2187d3be4b75/ (01:17)

Edited by IMHO

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, IMHO said:

There was an anniversary of Luhansk bombing not so long ago. It might be enlightening on how deep the conflict between East and West of Ukraine goes. Western Ukrainian Su-25 bombs the very civilian center of Eastern city of Luhansk right in the middle of the day. 02.06.2014, there's no L/DNR yet Ukrainian Army was doing Shock and Awe against civilian population just in case.

Saying A, say B too. Since 29th of May to 3rd of June LNR forses in Luhansk assaulted or seized several Ukrainian military units with several casualties from both sides. 2nd of June LNR forces attacked a base of Luhansk border guard detachment, located in south part of the city. There is aviation was used for border guards support - Su-27 and Mi-24. There is a version, that Su-25 had a task to hit SBU building, which was HQ of so-called "Army of South East", but the pilot has made a mistake in orientation and struck with several unguided rockets a building of Luhansk regional administration. Both buildings, occupied by terrorists and Russian collaborants were lawful military targets. Israel in such cases is acting more tough.

Edited by Haiduk

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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Both buildings, occupied by terrorists and Russian collabirants were lawful military targets. Israel in such cases is acting more tough.

Good statement, showing roots of this conflict. Typical for revolt supporters: that armed men capturing administrative buildings are "the people", that are "terrorists". Recipe for civil war.

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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Saying A, say B too. Since 29th of May to 3rd of June LNR forses in Luhansk assaulted or seized several Ukrainian military units with several casualties from both sides. 2nd of June LNR forces attacked a base of Luhansk border guard detachment, located in south part of the city. There is aviation was used for border guards support - Su-27 and Mi-24. There is a version, that Su-25 had a task to hit SBU building, which was HQ of so-called "Army of South East", but the pilot has made a mistake in orientation and stroke with several unguided rockets a building of Luhansk regional administration. Both buildings, occupied by terrorists and Russian collabirants were lawful military targets. Israel in such cases is acting more tough.

  1. Correct, the official version voiced by Ukrainian side was that the bombing was in connection with the border guards base that was surrounded and in lock down.
  2. The base was in the suburbs of Luhansk. Flying so low one can hardly mistake it for the very center of civilian city. Here's the video showing how the base looked like - one can judge for oneself if it looks like the center of the city from the first video.
  3. So Western Ukrainian side bombed the center of Luhansk. What Luhansk side did after they overrun the border guards base? They just let those guardsmen who didn't want to serve in local militia to pass to Ukraine unharmed.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DMS said:

Good statement, showing roots of this conflict. Typical for revolt supporters: that armed men capturing administrative buildings are "the people", that are "terrorists". Recipe for civil war.

Western vs. Eastern Ukraine - they hated the guts of each other long before the open conflict. Western Ukraine is under-developed, agrarian, low income, low education level, the populace is either tending the crops or working on menial jobs in other countries. Eastern Ukraine - lots of industry, higher education necessary for industry jobs, and income was times higher than in Western Ukraine. Similar to Northern and Southern Italy - there's no love lost between those two also - just way more open. And don't take me wrong it's not just Westerners hated Easterners, an average Eastern Ukrainian Joe from the street did consider himself superior to Westerners just as well.

Edited by IMHO

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Posted (edited)
On 6/19/2019 at 12:44 PM, IMHO said:

What Luhansk side did after they overrun the border guards base? They just let those guardsmen who didn't want to serve in local militia to pass to Ukraine unharmed.

In the night on 4th June border guards received an order to break through with small groups to Luhansk airport, controlled by UKR troops. Border guard commander want to fight, but chief of Border Guard said form Kyiv he will not send any reinforcement of mobile border guard reserve from nearby Stanytsia Luhanska settlement, because they will forced to assault two LNR checkpoints on their way. He put all responsibility for possible casualties on the commander of detachment and in such way forced him to leave the base. During the night on 4th June most LNR forces were moved to assault of 15th National Guard regiment in the center of Luhansk. 32 border guards with arms successfully passed through sparse LNR shield. Other 95 servicemen damaged own weapon, dressed in civil clothes and in such way left the base. During the fighting on 2nd June, when short truce was declared to take the wounded, 14 mobilized servicemen left the base with agreement of commander, since some time 6 other left the unit because LNR fighters used own standard tactic - after the combat phase they called parents of soldiers in order they begged them not shoot, to think about parents and to lay down a weapon. Exactly this scene, when two dozens mobilized and conscripts leave the base, Russian propaganda showed as "unit surrendered and fighters let to servicemen off". But unlike in National Guard units, where most servicemen were local conscripts, most of border guards were contractors, so this plan foiled and the "green berets" continued to fight and in the next day. They fought good and were the single military unit in Luhansk which provide fierce resistance among other. Own losses were 13 injured (two of them hard), among LNR fighters were 4 KIA and two other died in hospital during next week. Number of injured is unknown - not less a dozen, I think.

Again. Su-25 probably has a tack to strike HQ of "Army of South East" in SBU building, address Sovetskaya str.79. Yes, in the center of Luhansk. But instead hit administration building on Great Patriotic War heroes sqr. (opposite Sovetskaya 60 building) in 860 m westward from SBU building. What was a reason of attack of this building - mistake or presence of ZU-23 in the park or something else is unknown. This is a war and such happens not rare. If "bloody junta" wanted to make real "bombardment", they would send Su-25 of Su-24 with 500 kg HE or cluster bombs - in the same way like Russia did in Chechnya and in Syria.

Most of our fallen soldiers (if to compare with other regions) are from eastern Dnipropetrovsk region. This is to your sentence about "Western Ukraine make war against eastern". 

____________

For moderators. I ask do not close this thread. Local trolls again do own work, but I don't want any politic discussion here. In further I will answer only on the questions about combat developments, if any will have its.

 

Edited by Haiduk

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48 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

32 border guards with arms successfully passed through sparse LNR shield. Other 95 servicemen damaged own weapon, dressed in civil clothes and in such way left the base. During the fighting on 2nd June, when short truce was declared to take the wounded

  1.  Just to make it clear - there was no offense to the Ukrainian border guards.
  2. 95+32=127 Let's be realistic 127 people that make up a full compliment cannot somehow clandestinely penetrate a full encirclement of such a small territory of the base. There was an agreement they may leave and go to the Ukrainian-controlled territory.
1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Su-25 probably

Can you substantiate SBU/ZSU theory with the proofs dated to those times? There's no ZSU on the video and I have Alexander Geraschenko - an advisor to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense saying on camera the bombing related to the border guards base. Just as you said initially. https://rutube.ru/video/196b6fc4a2ee62f8c49e2187d3be4b75/  (01:17)

PS Or may be we just close this line of discussion? You stated your position, I stated mine - it's all too pointless to further this on.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, IMHO said:

95+32=127 Let's be realistic 127 people that make up a full compliment cannot somehow clandestinely penetrate a full encirclement

There is no full encirclement neither 2nd of June, nor in the night on 4th June. Enemy groups shelled the base from the residual area "Myrnyi" (means "Peaceful", what a play of word), from the hill's slope and from treeplant. Airstrikes forced LNR fighters to withdraw in "Myrnyi". The group, which tried to seize the base has no more than 150-200 men. In the night from 3rd on 4th June most of them were taken to assault National Guard unit, so enemy has only small number of watchers, than real screen. Serhyi Deyneko, border guard commander was familiar with LNR leader and fighters commander Bolotov (before war he was security and driver of local oligarch Yefremov, which in 2010 "asked" for Deyneko appointment ). Deyneko says he took 30 men in five small groups and diring the night left the base in southern direction. Other in civil clothes also left the base in small groups. Hard to say there is were any agreements or not, but after such losses, I think, no. LNR fighters didn't stay near the base, because border guard snipers eliminated and wounded several of them, when they tried to advance or even tried to shot from cover, like in this case:

 

 

 

Edited by Haiduk

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Posted (edited)

Non related question. @Haiduk what's your view on the video/story of the journalists that travelled together with Khomchak and they later claimed that he left his troops in Ilovaisk? The video looks pretty serious. I take no position on this just interesting what's being said "across the line".

Edited by IMHO

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9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Saying A, say B too. Since 29th of May to 3rd of June LNR forses in Luhansk assaulted or seized several Ukrainian military units with several casualties from both sides.

Distinct qualitative difference in the choice of targets there.  :mellow:

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1 hour ago, IMHO said:

Non related question. @Haiduk what's your view on the video/story of the journalists that travelled together with Khomchak and they later claimed that he left his troops in Ilovaisk? The video looks pretty serious. I take no position on this just interesting what's being said "across the line".

Ilovaisk story smells very bad on all levels. I know about this episode and I think very probably it can be true.  Though, Shaposhnikov known like very biased blogger. We have two "camps" - one  blames Poroshenko and Muzhenko and their opponents blames Kolomoiskyi, Khomchak and volunteers in reasons and decisions, which led to tragedy. As for each side is right, but don't want to recognize own "party" gult too. Shaposhnikov is not a fan of Poroshenko, but he gives very negative assessment to Khomchak. From other hand, Khomchak rejected to leave own troops, when special force group arrived to the base camp near Ilovaisk 25th Aug to take him in safe place.  

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Ilovaisk story smells very bad on all levels

Am I correct to say that there are two versions (or a combination of both) that look most convincing?

  1. The requirement put up for the Ukrainian troops leaving the encirclement was to leave all the heavy weapons (or all weapons) and go but someone in the top brass (Muzhenko?) decided that it would be a disgrace and decided to break this condition.
  2. There were some last minute political negotiations and it required the withdrawal of troops to be delayed but someone (Khomchak?) decided to start the march anyway not waiting for the proper settlement in negotiations.

Not claiming anything - just want to hear your opinion.

Edited by IMHO

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On 6/20/2019 at 3:37 AM, IMHO said:

Am I correct to say that there are two versions (or a combination of both) that look most convincing?

  1. The requirement put up for the Ukrainian troops leaving the encirclement was to leave all the heavy weapons (or all weapons) and go but someone in the top brass (Muzhenko?) decided that it would be a disgrace and decided to break this condition.
  2. There were some last minute political negotiations and it required the withdrawal of troops to be delayed but someone (Khomchak?) decided to start the march anyway not waiting for the proper settlement in negotiations.

Not claiming anything - just want to hear your opinion.

By the version of Muzhenko, at the evening 26th of Aug Putin agreed with "green corridor" and about two days this question discussed on the RU and UKR General Staffs level. But 28th Aug Russian side suddenly changed own mind - at 22-00 Russian colonel-general Bogdanovskyi, first deputy of General Staff Chief called to Muzhenko and said Ukrainian troops now can withdraw through "green corridor" only if they will be completely disarmed. Muzhenko rejected because Russian side evaded from the question about security guaranties. Muzhenko claims, that because of hard situation, he couldn't order nothing to Khomchak and because Khomchak was in epicenter of developments, he gave to him a right to assume decision. But he has offered to Khomchak to take all trops in Ilovaisk, set up strong defense there and wait reinforcenent, which should to deblocate them. But this offer was rejected by volunteer battalions commanders - they are were not part of ATO HQ and subordinated only to Ministry of internal affairs, so neither Khomchak, nor Muzhenko couldn't order them to stay.  Commanders said, if Khomchak and army units want to stay and die, that is their business, but volunteers will go out, because they exhausted (exacly mostly volunteers - about 500 fighters were involved in the fight for Ilovaisk since 7 Aug, most of army units - remains of Sector D, withdrew to Ilovaisk area from the border on 24-26th of Aug). Then Khomchak said "well we will withdraw together".

Then Muzhenko offered to Khomchak the variant of night breakthough of small groups on wide front in different directions - mostly on the south, where enemy screen was not so strong. But on the next counсil volunteer units commanders rejected and that variant too. Russians alredy have negotiations directly with Khomchak and offerd him secure withdrawal - all commanders knew about this and didn't want to risk. In this time negotiations continued both on General Staffs level and on the level of Sector B staff. Muzhenko was in contact with generals Bogdanovskyi, Yebstratov and with Gerasimov, Russian Chief of General Staff. But Russian generals were turning this around each on other and than on lower levels. At last on Khomchak staff level as if achieved an agreement about withdrawal with weapon and vehicles. It was supposed to start at the down 29th of Aug in two columns under leading of Russian troopers.

But in 6-00 to the Khomchak a Russian officer arrived and said that condition has changed again - there is only one route now and UKR troops must witdrawal completely disarmed. Khomchak claimed to communicate with hihger levels to know what happened and how to turn conditins back. Russians were promising to give an answer each half hour. Other version said, that not only Russian delayed the time, but Khomchak too, because of not all Ukrainain troops left positions in Ilovaisk and around it yet. At last, Russians answered they are agree on previous conditions, but Ukrainian combat vehicles must drive with covered weapon. At 8-15 Ukrainain columnes started a movement, when the head of northern column, headed by Khomchak passed inner circle of Russian positions (that on the Shaposhnikov's video), the tail is not moved yet. But when all Ukrainain troops were already on the march, Russian troops opened fire. There is a version, that commander of southern column without any visible reason commenced fire on Russian positions and gave the code order "Buran 555" (to breakthrough), but from other hand, Ukrainian troops proceeded in march order with covered wepon, so were unable to make any offensive or breakthough actions. But other troopers, survived in this hell told Russians opened fire, when рфда ща UKR south column already passed Chervonosilske village...

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Posted (edited)

Muzhenko says in an interview to Ukrainian BBC. https://inforesist.org/muzhenko-ob-ilovajske-homchak-znal-chto-rf-otmenila-zelenyj-koridor-no-vse-ravno-prikazal-vyhodit-ne-boevym-poryadkom/ It was 

Quote

"Bogdanovsky [deputy head of General Staff of Russia] informed me at 22:30 that all [previous] guarantees are not more and that there exists one requirement - leave with no arms and vehicles. I told him that we will not accept this. He replied that there are no guarantees now and if anything changes he would communicate accordingly".

From his interview seems like Russian side firstly agreed to Ukrainian side leaving Ilovaisk armed but then the Russian side changed her mind and put a condition that arms must be left in place. On Shaposhnikov audio track of radio chatter one may also hear that someone tells Khomchak that more time is required to finish the negotiations but Khomchak replies "I have no time, go on now!".

They lost the battle and now they were trying to stage a bloody Blietzkrieg against an overwhelming force just to save their asses politically :( Should they have left Ilovaisk with no arms that reflected pretty badly on their military careers.

PS What struck me also is how Muzhenko disowns Khomchak. Muzhenko is a Chief of Staff - whatever is done in the field by his commanders the Chief of Staff cannot say I bear no responsibility. 

Edited by IMHO

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, IMHO said:

They lost the battle

This was not the battle. Just turkey shot of columnes, which drove in march order. Battle for Ilovaisk, which took place from 7-24th Aug is a separate episode, which mistakenly mixed with developments of 25-29th Aug, when under ruling of Khomchak arrived units of Sector D, which was disbanded approx.23-24th of Aug. If all that forces would manage defense in seized part of Ilovaoisk or really would try to break through, the result could be other...

2 hours ago, IMHO said:

What struck me also is how Muzhenko disowns Khomchak

One of main argument of pro-Muzhenko's "camp" is Ilovaisk operation has been planned in interests of oligarh Kolomoiskyi (to take control uder energy plant in Zugres - Ilovaisk was the obstaclee on the way to this target) and conducted by volunteer battalions. As if ATO HQ didn't give any orders to assault Ilovaisk (and as I said, volunteer battalions weren't under command of Muzhenko). Also this "camp" claims Khomchak (he was the general of "6th Army Corps Dnipropetrovsk military clan", when Muzhenko is from "8th Army corps Kyiv military clan") was close to environment of Kolomoiskyi and in violation of Muzhenko's order gave to volunteers in support army group of Sector B (about two combined companies) and personnaly led the operation, moving Sector B HQ to Ilovaisk area. Finally this played bad work for remained Ukrainian runits of Sector D - when the sector was disbanded, these units were attached to Sector B and retreated to the dislocation of Khomchak's HQ. Directly in the trap.

As a counter version, pro-Khomchak (or anti-Muzhenko&Poroshenko) "camp" claims ATO HQ had a plans to encircle Donetsk and Ilovaisk was a part of this plan. They also showed the WARNO from 4th Aug, where some army units receive orders to set chekpoints around Ilovaisk. On their opinion this is a proof that exactly Muzhenko planned this operation, but small detail - in WARNO text clearly written "The staff of Sector B orders..." and the sign - general Khomchak. Not Muzhenko. From the other hand, Muzhenko really said ATO HQ planned operation of outflanking Donetsk from the south, but he claimed Ilovaisk battle was usual tactical clash, not general battle. As if this was secondary task, so ATO HQ decided to involve volunteers through representative of police in ATO HQ, because according intelligence information, Ilovaisk hadn't strong garrison (that turned out wrong).

@kinophile I think this will be interesting for you, since you have interest to Ilovaisk battle :)

Edited by Haiduk

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This was not the battle

I meant not the march but Battle for Ilovaisk. As per the march I believe on the RUS side there was an all too usual mistake of trading transient tactical wins for grave strategic losses. Yes, they got UKR forces of that day severely degraded but the memory of this event will stay on for generations in Ukrainians. Though UKR commanders were no less of mental jerks to underestimate the resolve of their opponents and seriousness of the situation.

Edited by IMHO

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12 hours ago, IMHO said:

I meant not the march but Battle for Ilovaisk.

Well, then I would say about "a draw" on 24th Aug. Ukrainian troops seized western part of the town and established chekpoints around, but havn't enough forces to cut off supply from Khartsyzk town and assuult eastern part of Ilovaisk.

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Posted (edited)

Interesting video how UR-83P MICLIC is using not for direct purpose, but like rocket launcher to hit enemy positions. UR-83P mineclearing charge has 22 sections with 120 m of lenght and contains 1380 kg of PVV-4 HE (about 0,85-0,9 TNT). The range of launch is limited by the brake cable in 440 m of lenghth.

29th of June DNR forces launched such charge from Oleksandrivka village to Maryinka town outskirt, trying to hit positions of 24th mech.brigade. To make the charge fly further, they disconnected brake cable. The charge exploded, but the only result is destructionn of abandoned structures. No casualties.

There are several happens of such using of MICLICs on Donbas - during assault of Donetsk airport and in 2017 year.

On the photo UR-83P device

yr-83p-03.jpg

The engine of UR-83P charge, which was found in Maryinka after explosion

D-PUNzkXYAAF4-2.jpg

 

Edited by Haiduk

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28 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

Been watching videos from Syria, huh?  ;)

Yes, but from Donbas it is first on my memory... Uh... Maybe %)

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Assuming the DPR/LPR were ever to reintegrate (unlikely as that now seems), somebody will have to pay to clear this mess up.....If you think that will be the EU, you are going to be in for a rather rude awakening.  ;)

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3 hours ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

Assuming the DPR/LPR were ever to reintegrate (unlikely as that now seems), somebody will have to pay to clear this mess up.....If you think that will be the EU, you are going to be in for a rather rude awakening.  ;)

Nice on topic for the thread!!! 

Stir the pot...🙄

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