Separatist push/Ukraine shove back

[Kinophile]

That kind of thing us exactly what AI do.  They talk to soldiers/civilians on both sides

They send their own people whemever possible to verify information and give accurate,  on the ground accounts. 

Counting casualties is fundamental to their mission. 

[Rinaldi]

^^

The same goes for the ICRC and MSF - whom historically have put themselves at great risk providing second echelon support to both military and civilian hospitals. The ICRC in particular tries to track POWs and walking wounded and make sure they are given good treatment in the enemy camps - a concern currently shared with AI whom have reported on summary executions of captured Ukranian soldiers. MSF had often been our first window into Syrian rebel casaulties in the 2011 to 2013 era.

These all, ultimately, relate to the nature of the fighting and present third party counts, sometimes well after the fact and corroborated with personal accounts. Which, I cannot stress enough, tend to corroborate Ukranian Army claims more often than not - and often what discrepcencies that do exist are more often a result of the fog of war (UA reports being 'on-the-spot' as Haiduk has clearly shown us) rather than deliberate misinformation, as our local Putinbots routinely claim

The Rand Corp. takes a more military interest in accurate reporting as their plethora of articles on the political and military aspects of the subject seek to advise and assist other militaries in learning from what we see. You can hardly assert you have lessons to teach when you are regurgitating propaganda.

Again, DMS, being wrong or uninformed isn't a cardinal sin, being willfully so is. Stop this ham-fisted attempts to pick apart things you cannot dismiss with appreciable evidence or understanding.

Edited February 3, 2017 by Rinaldi

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, DMS said:

Example of city fortifications in Avdeevka.Civilians are evacuated, I hope? Very effective - observation posts and sniper positions in the buldings and shelters in the trenches. Is there covered communication trench to the basement?

This is Vorobyova street, house 15. You can read in Wikimapia - these houses have been abandoned by citizens because of it faced to frontline and, thus located in danger zone: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=uk&lat=48.129635&lon=37.756641&z=16&m=b&show=/22803059/ru/ул-Воробьёва-15.

Yes, this house uses as observation post, sniper point and frontline position. Possibly some troops accomodates there. I don't understand cries of Russian media "Ukrainin tanks have come to Avdiivka !!!" Its always was there. Avdiivka is frontline city, all looks quite logical. Is there no armor in Donetsk ?  Also I don't understand why our MoD started to justify itself. Damn ! Enemy is moving armor to Yasynuvata and Spartak, in 2600 m from this house is continuing fight for position, we expecting enemy assault with armor and have to justify why our tanks stay in reserve in Avdiivka ? OMG.

Here the photos from Ukrainain side

Edited February 3, 2017 by Haiduk

[Lethaface]

On 2/2/2017 at 6:56 PM, Rinaldi said:

As for the lie coefficient, I'm a lawyer not a mathmetician but I'll take an honest crack at it just for you, boo:

2x to the power of state control :^)

Since my work is in the conceptual information analysis part of reality, I'll suggest we make the lie coefficient: state control level of media on a 1-10 scale, squared. For Russia it comes close to 100, while Western governments could only hope for such a coefficient. Ukraine is somewhere in the middle, but they're not as competent as the Russian regime when it comes to controlling ones media. Perhaps Berlusconi could lend them a hand? :-)

Anyway my work doesn't make my argument stronger and to be clear: there is still a lot of lies in western media. However, Russian media is almost pure state propaganda inbred with fantasia and to the critical observer that's quite clear. Ukrainian media does also often reside in fantasia land but significantly less so than Russian media, not even mentioning the separatist amateurish propaganda outlets.

[Haiduk]

Ok, guys, since now hevay artillery and MLRS is working almost on all front except Luhansk sector and there is no large atatcks, just position skirmishes and artillery exchenges, I meanwhile stopping updates. When somethig important will happen, I will post here.

For 2nd Feb we have 4 KIA 19 WIA on whole frontline. Among them in Avdiivka area -  2 KIA 7 WIA. Need to say about yesterday incident on Svitlodarsk bulge - separs knoked out by ATGM medic car marked with Red Cross, which drove to positions for injured soldier evacuation. Medic of 54th brigade Natalia Khoruzha got killed, driver was heavy wounded. 

Edited February 3, 2017 by Haiduk

[IMHO]

47 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is Vorobyova street, house 15. You can read in Wikimapia - these houses have been abandoned by citizens because of it faced to frontline and, thus located in danger zone: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=uk&lat=48.129635&lon=37.756641&z=16&m=b&show=/22803059/ru/ул-Воробьёва-15.

Yes, this house uses as observation post, sniper point and frontline position. Possibly some troops accomodates there. I don't understand cries of Russian media "Ukrainin tanks have come to Avdiivka !!!" Its always was there. Avdiivka is frontline city, all looks quite logical. Is there no armor in Donetsk ?  Also I don't understand why our MoD started to justify itself. Damn ! Enemy is moving armor to Yasynuvata and Spartak, in 2600 m from this house is continuing fight for position, we expecting enemy assault with armor and have to justify why our tanks stay in reserve in Avdiivka ? OMG.

Minsk-2 point 2: 50km security zone for guns of 100mm and above... 2.6km for 125mm does not look very much like in line with Minks-2. Trying to catch a tiger by its tail is completely delusional given the current military balance. Just a propaganda operation to corner other countries into pulling other's chestnuts out of fire.

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, kinophile said:

That kind of thing us exactly what AI do.  They talk to soldiers/civilians on both sides

They send their own people whemever possible to verify information and give accurate,  on the ground accounts. 

Counting casualties is fundamental to their mission. 

While I do think that Amnesty International does great work, I do know that for example the Dutch branch of it doesn't like to address Dutch problems. Fair and square ;-)

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, IMHO said:

Minsk-2 point 2: 50km security zone for guns of 100mm and above... 2.6km for 125mm does not look very much like in line with Minks-2. Trying to catch a tiger by its tail is completely delusional given the current military balance. Just a propaganda operation to corner other countries into pulling other's chestnuts out of fire.

So if enemy tanks or artillery shelled our positions, we must anyway to depict "pigeons of peace" ? Enaugh Debaltsevo, where Russians have violated truce since 6 hours. Minsk is just opportunity to relative calm for us, we using this time for army improvement, "crawling offensive" and expecting - either Russia under sanction pressure will go out from Donbas or Croatian scenario. We don't want Donbas as Russian protectorate in our country. All politics, exept pro-Russians, understand, that if they will pass a law about "special status of Donbas", they will have new revolution. 3500 deaths of our soldiers for legitimization of "Russian world" on our territory ? Never.   

Edited February 3, 2017 by Haiduk

[Rinaldi]

44 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Since my work is in the conceptual information analysis part of reality, I'll suggest we make the lie coefficient: state control level of media on a 1-10 scale, squared. For Russia it comes close to 100, while Western governments could only hope for such a coefficient. Ukraine is somewhere in the middle, but they're not as competent as the Russian regime when it comes to controlling ones media. Perhaps Berlusconi could lend them a hand? :-)
 

Haha, fair play, your mathematic efforts are deeply appreciated. As for consulting with Berlo, I fear Putin has his own interpretation of 'Bunga Bunga' time.

 

44 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Anyway my work doesn't make my argument stronger and to be clear: there is still a lot of lies in western media. However, Russian media is almost pure state propaganda inbred with fantasia and to the critical observer that's quite clear. Ukrainian media does also often reside in fantasia land but significantly less so than Russian media, not even mentioning the separatist amateurish propaganda outlets.

Indeed, it remains relative - and as Steve has said, track records matter. The Russian media has been consistently inconsistent, shall we say, in this regard.

Edited February 3, 2017 by Rinaldi
'relevant' to 'relative'

[Lethaface]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

[...] ? Never.   

I respect your determination and as far as I'm concerned every human being on this earth 'keeping it real' will salute it.

[IMHO]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

So if enemy tanks or artillery shelled our positions, we must anyway to depict "pigeons of peace" ? Enaugh Debaltsevo, where Russians have violated truce since 6 hours. Minsk is just opportunity to relative calm for us, we ill use this time for army improvement, "crawling offensive" and expecting - either Russia under sanction pressure will go out from Donbas or Croatian scenario. We don't want Donbas as Russian protectorate in our country. All politics, exept pro-Russians, understand, that if they will pass a law about "special status of Donbas", they will have new revolution. 3500 death of our soldiers for legitimization of "Rusisan world" on our territory ? Never.   

Well, I couldn't offer a better wording. The ill-placed reasoning behind the crisis of the days is to stir up the fighting to try to corner other countries into current sanctions regime. While being a valid total war tactics it somehow leaves Ukrainian side with no recurse to a higher moral ground as the price for this logic is human lives.

[Haiduk]

@John Kettler And about yesterday shellings of Donetsk. Looks like, that not only UKR artillery shelled northern outskirts... Just one example. Direction of incoming shell, which hit building - E NE and is situates on line which cross through slageheaps between Donetsk and Makiivka, Yakovlivka, Mineralne, Yasynuvata. You will find its on Wikimapia, for example Hryhorivka ettles - locals are writing in twitters that this is traditional place of separatists artillery. This building is Lystoprokatnykiv str.10. Every can to investigate this impact  http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=48.062345&lon=37.787907&z=19&m=b&search=Листопрокатчиков 10

 

Edited February 3, 2017 by Haiduk

[IMHO]

 

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@John Kettler

Not funny, Haiduk  On the top picture you have a building curving at 90 degrees. On a "location map" the buildings curve at 45/135 degrees. And if you apply the camera angle to the map you'll see even more discrepancies. At least put some thought into it  Sad!

Edited February 3, 2017 by IMHO

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, IMHO said:

Sad!

Not funny, Haiduk  On the top picture you have a building curving at 90 degrees. On a "location map" the buildings curve at 45/135 degrees. And if you apply the camera angle to the map you'll see even more discrepancies. At least put some thought into it  

Instead to measure "degrees", you can watch all on wikimapia -  http://wikimapia.org/#lang=uk&lat=48.061896&lon=37.787816&z=19&m=b&show=/26756514/uk/вул-Листопрокатників-10&search=Листопрокатчиков 10 Just click on house and you see the photos. This is THAT house. Behind it on my first photo you can see purple 9 storey building. This is Lystoprokatnykiv str. 3a. also click on building on Wikimapia and see it photo. This is obviosly that house: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=uk&lat=48.061896&lon=37.787816&z=19&m=b&show=/25827600/uk/вул-Листопрокатників-3а&search=Листопрокатчиков 10 

Also compare gas pipes on photo and on wikimapia - its seen quite good.

Ah, what is this ? Oh, nothing intrerest, just usual T-72B in Makiivka. This is just taxi for coalminers.

Edited February 3, 2017 by Haiduk

[IMHO]

Well, Haiduk, I clicked...  Pics on Wikimapia fit the map on Wikimapia  The problem is all of them do not fit the damage pic you've given here. And there're many more details that do not fit as well.

Edited February 3, 2017 by IMHO

[John Kettler]

IMHO,

Haiduyk's first photo show, in my view, a building corner which is definitely not 90 degrees. Yet I see you taxing Haiduk over the building's corner being 90 degrees in his ground level image and 135 degrees in the overhead. From there, you seem to be going to "what are you trying to sell us?" mode by making what seems to be a claim some sort of manipulation is taking place from Haiduk's end. Is this, in fact, the case? If so, I see no basis for such an assertion. The ground level view shows a splayed corner, as does the overhead view.

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Ah, what is this ? Oh, nothing intrerest, just usual T-72B in Makiivka. This is just taxi for coalminers.

Haiduk,

An absolute gem of biting ironic wit. Those tanks would make a lovely target for all sorts of martial activities. Was that shell that hit the building a stray? Sure looks like it was a dud, for the only wrecked windows I see are where it hit. Had it entered and detonated that would've blown out lots of windows. Had it gone off outside, many would be shattered, and the front of the building would've been ripped up.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 3, 2017 by John Kettler

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Lethaface said:

 the Dutch branch of it doesn't like to address Dutch problems. Fair and square ;-)

Curious...? 

[Wicky]

7 hours ago, DMS said:

I can hardly imagine "Amnesty international" personell, who goes to frontline, tells to soldiers, sneaks to the hospitals, finds relatives and blame goverment for lie. I thought that this organisations have another mission.May be I am unimformed?

Primer for you DMS from 2015 relating what's been occuring in Syria, but principles of their methodology are much the same in conflict areas.

http://www.amnestyusa.org/sites/default/files/embargoed_5_may_aleppo_report_death_everywhere.pdf

METHODOLOGY
Amnesty International conducted research for this report from December 2014 to March 2015. From 15 to 19 December 2014 and from 12 to 30 January 2015, a researcher conducted fieldwork in Turkey. Additional research was conducted from Lebanon. For this report, researchers interviewed 78 current or former residents of Aleppo, including eyewitnesses to attacks, medics, rescue workers and members of the media, and 29 professionals working in or on Aleppo, including staff of UN agencies as well as national and international NGOs. Interviews were conducted either in person or by phone, email or virtual means. Due to the security concerns of residents of government-controlled areas in Aleppo city, Amnesty International had limited access to witnesses from these areas. The majority of witnesses in this report asked that their names be withheld, either to protect their own safety or the safety of family members living in Syria.

While Amnesty International was able to visit parts of northern Syria in 2012 and 2013, it has not sent researchers to such areas in 2014 or 2015 due to heightened security concerns. The Syrian authorities have never responded to Amnesty International’s repeated requests to travel to areas they control since the start of the crisis in March 2011. For this report, Amnesty International reviewed Syrian government statements; reports from UN agencies, international NGOs and local monitoring groups; and media reports. It also reviewed extensive photo and video materials provided by Syrian human rights and humanitarian organizations, human rights activists and witnesses, and crosschecked them with witness accounts. While in Turkey, Amnesty International co-operated with several monitoring groups to gather information and to establish contact with witnesses and local experts. These groups included the Syrian Institute for Justice and Accountability, the Violations Documentation Center, the Syrian Network for Human Rights, and the Syria Research and Evaluation Organization.

In March 2015, Amnesty International contacted the Syrian authorities to share its preliminary findings that the Syrian government had committed serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law in Aleppo, to request a response to these findings and to seek clarifications and additional details on specific incidents and cases examined in this report. Amnesty International also invited the Syrian authorities to share information regarding potential violations committed by armed opposition groups in Aleppo city. As of 23 April 2015, when this report was finalized, Amnesty International had received no response.

Edited February 4, 2017 by Wicky

[Nefron]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

 

 Minsk is just opportunity to relative calm for us, we using this time for army improvement, "crawling offensive" and expecting - either Russia under sanction pressure will go out from Donbas or Croatian scenario.

Is this the prevailing opinion in Ukraine now? Holy ****, that can't be good. If so, I'd expect the Ukraine to be rudely reminded of the circumstances that forced the government to sign the two capitulation agreements.

Georgian scenario is more likely: insane military spending that boosts courage, followed by a crushing military defeat.

[IMHO]

 

11 hours ago, John Kettler said:

From there, you seem to be going to "what are you trying to sell us?" mode...

No, I'm not  Checked other sources for sat/location pics. Haiduk was right - I was wrong 

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, IMHO said:

 

No, I'm not  Checked other sources for sat/location pics. Haiduk was right - I was wrong 

Damn ! I have spent a hour in Photoshop for making infographic collage for you and "Haiduk was right"  Oh, well, here it...
 

Edited February 4, 2017 by Haiduk

[IMHO]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Damn ! I have spent a hour in Photoshop for making infographic collage for you and "Haiduk was write"  Oh, well, here it...

Haiduk, I did the same so we're even in terms of effort put into it  I'm terribly sorry for putting your post in doubt without checking out all available information beforehand 

[Holien]

7 hours ago, Nefron said:

Is this the prevailing opinion in Ukraine now? Holy ****, that can't be good. If so, I'd expect the Ukraine to be rudely reminded of the circumstances that forced the government to sign the two capitulation agreements.

Georgian scenario is more likely: insane military spending that boosts courage, followed by a crushing military defeat.

From Steve's analysis and if I understand him that will not be the case if Russia continues the charade that they are not involved. But if Russia drops that then yes Ukraine will be beaten but at what cost to Russia? 

Either way the people are victims to the meddling of Putin and Russia who have no business being in Ukraine. Is "freedom" worth dying for? Depends on your pov and if you are the old lady stuck in the war zone or someone safe away from it all.

If you stand up against a bully be prepared for a bloody nose.

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, Nefron said:

Is this the prevailing opinion in Ukraine now? Holy ****, that can't be good. If so, I'd expect the Ukraine to be rudely reminded of the circumstances that forced the government to sign the two capitulation agreements.

Georgian scenario is more likely: insane military spending that boosts courage, followed by a crushing military defeat.

Pollings roughly show that about 30...35  % wants military resolving, but exactly this part of society is most active. Polling for December 2016 didn't has this question, but was about Minsk agreements evaluations and results of hypotetical referendum about Donbas status. So only 9 % consider Minsk agreements positive, 30 % - negative, 32 % - neutrally or "something is positive, something is negative", 16 % - "I don't know about this"/ "not interest", 12 % - "hard to say something about this"

If referendum would be claimed, 49 % of Ukrainians will take part, 24 % - undecided. 53 % of referendum participators (44 % of all population) would vote for recognition of Donbas as occupied territories and full isolation of it until Donbas not be back under Ukraine control, 30 % of referendum participators (23 % of all population) will vote for "special status of Donbas" and amnesty for DNR/LNR fighters/politics, which didn't commit any hard crimes: http://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/socio/infoDonbas1116.pdf

And Ukraine is not Georgia. Russian invasion was big surprise for Georgian authorities, which prepare own army only to fight with separatist forces. We now is preparing army for direct engagements with Russia (even in Russia understand, that DNR/LNR forces without Russian support and supply will be destroyed during a month or even less). The point of no return has been passed in Ilovaisk. 

 

Edited February 4, 2017 by Haiduk

[IMHO]

58 minutes ago, Holien said:

From Steve's analysis and if I understand him that will not be the case if Russia continues the charade that they are not involved. But if Russia drops that then yes Ukraine will be beaten but at what cost to Russia? 

Either way the people are victims to the meddling of Putin and Russia who have no business being in Ukraine. Is "freedom" worth dying for? Depends on your pov and if you are the old lady stuck in the war zone or someone safe away from it all.

If you stand up against a bully be prepared for a bloody nose.

Steve's analysis is wrong as it oversimplifies the situation by looking at it as if it were a Combat Mission scenario. And it is not. At some point of time I had a chance to talk to many of Donbass people having had an impression beforehand that Russian propaganda distorts the picture. But it is not. Whatever beliefs people on the Donbass side had before it all started they now hate the guts of pro-Ukrainian "patriotic" forces. They're hard to blame  for it as their houses were being destroyed and relatives killed for many months. You should understand the way Ukraine actually works. By the letter of law it's a unitary state but in reality it's a loose union of regions. People feel more attached to their region rather than to someone sitting in Kiev. It works both ways - when Yanukovitch was in power in reality he had very little if any influence in the Western Ukraine. And when the Western/Central Ukraine overthrew Yanukovitch the situation just reversed. That's why there were immediate mass defection in the army and police in the East and official Ukrainian Armed Forces showed so little fighting spirit. Professional soldiers just did not want to saw death and destruction to someone else's land. That's why these "patriotic" battalions were raised in the Western and Central Ukraine and sent to fight on the East. Professional Ukrainian soldiers just were not brainwashed to do someone else's bloody bidding.

But that was the thing of the past. The reality of today is that if Ukrainian "patriotic" battalions somehow all of a sudden take over Donetsk and Luhansk there will be mass cleanings and displacement and guerilla warfare . It's not a trait unique to one side - if DPR/LPR hotheads are let loose in the Central Ukraine the same scenario will happen. Because it's a civil war where each side hates the other death. Whatever was in the past the conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield even if military balance was in favour of Ukraine.

E.g. the line of contact is pretty long so Ukrainian forces may have chosen less populated areas to start infighting. It may be shown just the same way in the media. But they deliberately started shelling the most populous metropolis in Donbass with well over one million inhabitants. It was a well calculated move as death and destruction in Donetsk will elicit the most emotional and violent reaction from the East. After all if you're a Donbass fighter what would you do if a friend of yours of many years is killed or the house of your parents is destroyed. So until the politics is ruled by people living in the world of imaginary lines on the map rather than well being of the people living around either side of the front the killings will continue.

Edited February 4, 2017 by IMHO