Separatist push/Ukraine shove back

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, DMS said:

The list is long. Constitution reform, amnesty and many others. Border - one of the last paragraphs. And no reforms, no amnesty, only "повзучий наступ укропов" ("crawling attack", idiom)

Yes, I'm aware of all the obligations and also the different interpretations of who is supposed to do what first.  My belief is the aggressor who is solely responsible for this illegal war and is the only party keeping it going should be the one to make the motions to end it as per the signed agreement.  In the West there is a legal term called "act of good faith", and sadly Russia is clearly showing that it isn't interested in doing anything to conform to Minsk 2, especially when it was launching a full offensive to take Debaltseve with freshly deployed Russian Federation forces.  The burden should be on aggressor to move this process forward, not the victim or its supporters.

Again, you can dance around this all you want but the situation remains unchanged... Debaltseve is occupied by Russian and Russian proxy forces in violation of international law, the Budapest agreement, Minsk 1, and Minsk 2.   If you want to equate that with Ukrainian forces retaking a few trenches which they should already have under Minsk 2, you can certainly do that.  But I think it's a foolish point of view to try and justify.

1 hour ago, Rinaldi said:

@DMS

I got to say man, not even Haiduk is disagreeing with you. Not precisely sure what you're trying to get at - Haiduk's update of 30.01 mentions 1 KIA, 20 WIA - completely belivable and quite literally the definition of 'dozens' of casaulties especially when you take all the other UA's confirmed losses from other minor actions. Remember: Casaulties =/= solely fatalities. If your point here is to show that the UA is no less dubious a source than Russian and DNR claims, you're not making much of an impression. If anything you're showing the opposite.

Heh... thanks for saving me the time pointing this out

Steve

[Haiduk]

After today's morning attacks, in 10-30 a truce mode at last has been established. Especially was a silence, when in Avdiivka arrived pro-Russian politics of "Opposition bloc" - on eve the member of this party Nestor Shufrich was telling on Russian TV show that Ukrainian troops shelled Avdiivka and Poroshenko is initiator of escalation. I really don't undestand this strange tolerance from side of authorities to this political force, especially in conditions of war...  Sides agreed about truce up to 17-00, but as "Opposition bloc" men have went away, shellings were renewed, though with small intensity. Repair team which walked to hi-voltage pile to recover broken wires turned out under fire and couldn't complete own work again. After 16-00 shellings intensity were rising. For this day we have in Avdiivka area 2 KIA and 6 WIA on 18-00. Also 25 artillery and 2 Grad shells hit different areas of Avdiivka, 5 houses comletely destroyed, 4 heavy damaged, 1 civilian killed, 1 heavy wounded. 

Preliminary enemy losses in morning attacks 6 KIA 12 WIA, also further separatists source wrote about 120 mm shell hit DNR checkpoint on Yasynuvata fork - 2KIA and 2 WIA. But there is no complete report. 

Enemy long-range artillery is periodically shelling close rear - Krasnohorivka town and Tonen'ke village. Also this artillery conduct harrassing fire on the road Krasnohorivka - Avdiivka. This is alarming sign, because this shortest way to Avdiivka from the north and main supply traffic realized exactly by this road.  

There is no intelligence report about enemy losses for 31.01. Our losses in thay day in Avdiivka area 15 WIA. Also one killed in close rear of Avdiivka in Tonen'ke

 

[DMS]

21 hours ago, Rinaldi said:

I got to say man, not even Haiduk is disagreeing with you. Not precisely sure what you're trying to get at - Haiduk's update of 30.01 mentions 1 KIA, 20 WIA - completely belivable and quite literally the definition of 'dozens' of casaulties especially when you take all the other UA's confirmed losses from other minor actions. Remember: Casaulties =/= solely fatalities. If your point here is to show that the UA is no less dubious a source than Russian and DNR claims, you're not making much of an impression. If anything you're showing the opposite.

Just an intersting information from many sides.

Information is accurate or inaccurate. "More dubisious than", "less dubisious than", I don't know how to estimate it. To calculate "lie coefficient"?

20 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

My belief is the aggressor who is solely responsible for this illegal war and is the only party keeping it going should be the one to make the motions to end it as per the signed agreement. 

There was text about declaring war to Russia and western special forces in Syria and Lybia, but I deleted it. Politics annoy forum members, as I see, so I would stop,

 

 

[Rinaldi]

2 hours ago, DMS said:

 

Information is accurate or inaccurate. "More dubisious than", "less dubisious than", I don't know how to estimate it. To calculate "lie coefficient"?

 

Bull. In other words you're backpedalling. Stop this silly dance, the information was only 'interesting' to you because you thought you had us had with that US State Department quote.

Let me put it in terms you'll understand, the Ukranian Army dispatches are more accurate than the inaccurate estimates given to us by the DNR - and by necessary extension the Russians. As to how to estimate it, you apply some level of independant thought and compare claims between both sides and the overwhelming amount of neutral or near-neutral third party observers who are on the ground risking their lives documenting combat and excesses - you know, independant media, you remember what that is?

Who comes closer in their given estimates, consistently, to the observed casaulties given by independant media? The Ukranian Army.

As for the lie coefficient, I'm a lawyer not a mathmetician but I'll take an honest crack at it just for you, boo:

2x to the power of state control :^)

Edited February 2, 2017 by Rinaldi

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Rinaldi said:

Bull. In other words you're backpedalling. Stop this silly dance, the information was only 'interesting' to you because you thought you had us had with that US State Department quote.

Yup, it was pretty obvious to me as well   And like his Debaltseve position, it is just silly to keep trying to convince people the world is flat.

2 hours ago, Rinaldi said:

Let me put it in terms you'll understand, the Ukranian Army dispatches are more accurate than the inaccurate estimates given to us by the DNR - and by necessary extension the Russians. As to how to estimate it, you apply some level of independant thought and compare claims between both sides and the overwhelming amount of neutral or near-neutral third party observers who are on the ground risking their lives documenting combat and excesses - you know, independant media, you remember what that is?

I've had this argument with Russians since the war started.  There's many articles and even books written on why it's so difficult to have such discussions.  It boils down to a general belief that nothing in print is inherently any more real or fake than anything else in print.  Therefore, one can decided what is fact based on personal preference.  Sadly, this mentality exists in all nations and is on the rise in the West.  In part thanks to Putin's aggressive international disinformation campaign.

2 hours ago, Rinaldi said:

Who comes closer in their given estimates, consistently, to the observed casaulties given by independant media? The Ukranian Army.

For some track records matter.  For others, they are to be ignored if they are inconvenient.

Steve

[DMS]

1 hour ago, Rinaldi said:

Bull. In other words you're backpedalling. Stop this silly dance, the information was only 'interesting' to you because you thought you had us had with that US State Department quote.

Let me put it in terms you'll understand, the Ukranian Army dispatches are more accurate than the inaccurate estimates given to us by the DNR - and by necessary extension the Russians. As to how to estimate it, you apply some level of independant thought and compare claims between both sides and the overwhelming amount of neutral or near-neutral third party observers who are on the ground risking their lives documenting combat and excesses - you know, independant media, you remember what that is?

Who comes closer in their given estimates, consistently, to the observed casaulties given by independant media? The Ukranian Army.

As for the lie coefficient, I'm a lawyer not a mathmetician but I'll take an honest crack at it just for you, boo:

2x to the power of state control :^)

Where did I say that DNR estimates are more accurate than Ukrainian? Can you give a quote?

I have to clarify my position:

1) Estimates of enemy losses are always overrated. It is true for military documents, (lie coefficient = 3-6, for example) it is twice true for public information. (lie coefficient is unlimited)

2) Estimates of own losses may be slightly inaccurate. The lag from date of event to counting in documents is possible. For example - German casualties during "Bagration". Big numbers in 10 day lists in December of 1944, when no active engaments took place. Really this numbers are related to summer battles. So, military documents also can be inaccurate sometimes,

2a) Estimates of own losses, given to media - always underrated if they are big. There are different methods - to spread on larger period. 15 KIA in 1 day - huge casualties. But 2-3 per day during a week or two - much less notable. If soldier died of wounds - why not to count him as WIA instead of KIA? They will count him as KIA in hospital, after few days. Or won't count at all in some cases. It is possible to spread them back, on previous dates. Another method - count losses as non-combat. Accidents, suicides. Foreign volunteers, PMC employees, mercenaries are not counted at all. Good reason to give accurate information about losses - if soldiers were killed with a lot of witnesses or if body was taken by enemy.

That relates to any modern war, to any side of a conflict, not only to VSU. To DNR too!

Edited February 2, 2017 by DMS

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, DMS said:

Where did I say that DNR estimates are more accurate than Ukrainian? Can you give a quote?

I have to clarify my position:

1) Estimates of enemy losses are always overrated. It is true for military documents, (lie coefficient = 3-6, for example) it is twice true for public information. (lie coefficient is unlimited)

True.

Quote

2) Estimates of own losses may be slightly inaccurate. The lag from date of event to counting in documents is possible. For example - German casualties during "Bagration". Big numbers in 10 day lists in December of 1944, when no active engaments took place. Really this numbers are related to summer battles. So, military documents also can be inaccurate sometimes,

True, though the lag time has shortened to mere hours these days.  Which means within 1-2 days there's usually a pretty good feel for where the casualties are.

Quote

2a) Estimates of own losses, given to media - always underrated if they are big. There are different methods - to spread on larger period. 15 KIA in 1 day - huge casualties. But 2-3 per day during a week or two - much less notable. If soldier died of wounds - why not to count him as WIA instead of KIA? They will count him as KIA in hospital, after few days. Or won't count at all in some cases. It is possible to spread them back, on previous dates. Another method - count losses as non-combat. Accidents, suicides. Foreign volunteers, PMC employees, mercenaries are not counted at all. Good reason to give accurate information about losses - if a soldiers were killed with a lot of witnesses or if body was taken by enemy.

Sure, a variety of sources produce casualty numbers and they sometimes overlap, are in conflict, or are incomplete.  No problem with that either.

Quote

That relates to any modern war, to any side of a conflict, not only to VSU. To DNR too!

Here's where you're missing the point   The two are not equivalent.  The VSU numbers are posted by the Ukrainian government for scrutiny by the public.  The media in Ukraine is largely free and proven critical of bad casualty reporting (first year was a good example).  The fighters are directly accountable to the Ukrainian government, therefore there is a good "paper trail".  There are many NGOs operating within the front line area which Ukraine allows to communicate freely with the media and individuals.  The OSCE is also given access to Ukrainian positions on a regular basis.

*NONE* of this is true for the other side.  Russia is the most consistent, but inaccurate, because it says it isn't fighting in Ukraine and therefore it has no casualties.  Everybody by now knows this is BS, even supporters of the Russian side of the war.  So we know for absolute fact that the Russian casualty statistics are a lie.  Not just a little wrong, but totally and utterly wrong.

It is not much better for the DPR/LPR.  Neither one has an accountable system of information gathering or scrutiny.  There is no free press.  There are no free NGOs.  It's fighters are under undetermined control and loyalties are mixed.  Outside press is not allowed in, OSCE is not allowed to monitor.

What this means is that for Ukraine we have reasonably accurate friendly casualty figures, questionable enemy casualty figures.  For Russia/DPR/LPR we have known false and questionable friendly casualty figures, questionable enemy casualty figures.

On top of that, over the past 2 years in particular the DPR/LPR has made wild and totally ludicrous claims for enemy casualties.  Ukraine, on the other hand, has had far more reasonable sounding enemy casualty figures.  Meaning, one side clearly inflates their figures to an extreme, while Ukraine appears to keep the estimates within acceptable boundaries.

Please don't try to pretend the casualty reporting is the same for both sides.  Factually speaking that is not true.

Steve

[Haiduk]

There is no any direct attacks today, only low intensity artillery/mortar/MLRS exchenges, but to the evening according to twitters of citizens and servicemen real armageddon have started. Looks like Ukrainain artillery have received permission to suppress enemy batteries in the cities Donetsk, Makiivka and Yasynuvata. In previous days happened only single impacts on northern districts of Donetsk, but now dozens of shells is falling from the sky.

Two hours ago huge explosion have stressed Donetsk - in some buildings windows were knocked out and repercussion of shockwawe felt itself even in Dokuchayevsk town in 30 km. Locals say this was possibly detonation of huge ammunition store on territory of former military unit of Internal troops. Also to nort form military unity on territory of motel's parking is situates enemy armor and other vehicles base. Cause of explosion unclear. 

Here the place of detonation (writing in yellow: directorate of territorial command "East" (m/u 2240) of National Guard of Ukraine /really Internal troops on spring of 2014/) - this is almost central part of the city. Separs now very angry and have raised intensity of own artillery/MLRS. Reportedly tanks and light armor now driving from Donetsk and Makiivka to Avdiivka direction. 

 

Now enemy heavy shelling Avdiivka - 20 minutes ago two Grad missiles hit humanitarian aid camp, where citizens could receive hot meal and get warm. To this time knowingly about two killed serviceman of State Emergency Service - a rocket directly hit their vehicle. For this day (to 18-00) 52 damaged houses in Avdiivka, 1 civilian killed, 8 wounded.  

Our losses in Avdiivka for 1 Feb 2 KIA, 14 WIA (company commander of 72nd brigade killed on "promka" and soldier of 80th air-assault brigade was killed in Tonen'ke village some westward from Avdiivka). Intelligense again didn't isuue report about enemy losses.

Edited February 2, 2017 by Haiduk

[DMS]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The media in Ukraine is largely free and proven critical of bad casualty reporting (first year was a good example)

And they are working to improve it, Ukrainian artillery learns to fire fast and accurate, Ukrainian PR services and civilian activists learn to publish right information.

It is a question of military efficiency! Good, "democratic" tank will shoot in MG nest, set in house window, just like bad, "autocratic" tank. "Democratic" army will censor bad news to maintain morale like "not-democratic", or that army will loose. Full information is published after the war.

Ukrainian society is very nationalistic patriotic now, anti-maidan opposition is destroyed, communisitc party is prohibited. All NGOs and press are "patriotic". They all will support patriotic censor, not because they obey goverment, but because it helps them to win. "Zradniki" (person who is pessimistic and tells bad news) are critisized for setting panic without a reason. NGO, that would publish details about losses, post photos with dead VSU soldiers, would be punished not by goverment, but by "activists". I can give you a screenshot of Chakov hospital facebook public where administrairor says that she was asked not to publish WIA number. There are many instruments of non-goverment "patriotic control" in Ukraine.

But it doesn't matter, in my post, paragraph, 2a), I told about modern methods of hiding losses, in modern state, with press and NGOs. In old times there was no need in masking losses as non-combat or using PMC. Goverment could just classify it.

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Please don't try to pretend the casualty reporting is the same for both sides.  Factually speaking that is not true.

 

I didn't tell a word about DNR casualty reporting. I don't know is it same or not the same, I didn't count lie coefficient. )

DNR authorities sometimes post clearly false information about enemy and own losses. They should give no information at all while battle goes on, that would be a frank position.

Just now, Haiduk said:

Two hours ago huge explosion have stressed Donetsk

"Tochka-U"?

Edited February 2, 2017 by DMS

[Haiduk]

25 minutes ago, DMS said:

"Tochka-U"?

No any Tochka-U didn't income on the city, do not write delirium. Detonation of ammunition happened and was big explosion

Holy s... ! One man have told me ATO HQ really sanctioned heavy fire on enemy bases, stores and possible firing positions inside Donetsk and Makiivka. I hope, citizens have time to cover in cellars.

Now such looks northern part of Donetsk (red circles - zone of shellings). In that place enemy batteries have own positions on slagehips. 

  

Edited February 2, 2017 by Haiduk

[DMS]

Khodakovsky says about single Uragan missle.

[Rinaldi]

You know, I had been taking you seriously for the last 20 pages or so, reading your posts, attempting to appreciate your position, but this last post is so ridiculous that I must conclude you're either being deliberately obtuse or are a comedian.

47 minutes ago, DMS said:

Ukrainian society is very nationalistic patriotic now, anti-maidan opposition is destroyed, communisitc party is prohibited. All NGOs and press are "patriotic". They all will support patriotic censor, not because they obey goverment, but because it helps them to win. "Zradniki" (person who is pessimistic and tells bad news) are critisized for setting panic without a reason. NGO, that would publish details about losses, post photos with dead VSU soldiers, would be punished not by goverment, but by "activists". I can give you a screenshot of Chakov hospital facebook public where administrairor says that she was asked not to publish WIA number. There are many instruments of non-goverment "patriotic control" in Ukraine

Ah yes all those patriotic Ukrainian NGOs like: MSF, Journalists Without Borders, Amnesty International, RAND Corp., International Observatories, the ICRC...

At this point it would perhaps be more prudent to ask "Who isn't a Ukrainian ultranationalist?" I am suspect #1 in this investigation. Hmmm...I have never said no to good Borsch...I wonder when I will receive my acceptance to the Azov Battalion. But wait - gasp - I am also partial to bangers and mash.  A-am I a member of the IRA? Questions abound.

51 minutes ago, DMS said:

 

They should give no information at all while battle goes on, that would be a frank position.

 

This actually made me laugh out loud on the GO train. Truly, thank you for this. If I need any further proof that Russians and those in their government's sphere of influence have an ever-eroding perception of a free and open society and what it looks like, this asinine statement goes a long way to provide said proof.

[Holien]

This is escalating and starting to receive more western media attention. Saw today a Shocking report of people living in flats with minus 8 degrees temperature inside!!!

I just don't see this ending well with the new political situation in America. ( Let's hope I am wrong).

Haiduk thanks for keeping the reports comming in a fair and balanced manner.

[BlackMoria]

What is that line from Babylon 5?   Ah,yes..... "The avalanche has already started.  It is too late for the pebbles to vote."

[Battlefront.com]

I've read several articles which presume Ukraine is deliberately escalating the situation in order to test Trump and see what he does.  I've also read several other articles which presume Putin is deliberately escalating the situation in order to test Trump and see what he does.  As of yet I've not read any articles which have suggested that both concepts could be at play here.  So allow me to do it for them!

Both Ukraine and Russia are trying to play the long game in Donbas (specifically) and the region (generally).  Barring certain conditions, Trump is going to be around for the next four years as President.  Neither Poroshenko nor Putin want to set off on a 2-4 year plan without having some sense of what Trump might do.

So far Trump has sent mixed signals.  On the one hand he has been consistently pro-Russian for about a year (before that he was far more critical of Russia) even in the face of overwhelming logic, fact, and political opposition both at home and abroad.  On the other hand, he's not the master of his own destiny because the United States is still a democratic nation with a solid majority of both its population and its politicians (at a minimum) being skeptical of Russia.  The think tanks are also solidly against trying to work deals with Russia from a position of weakness (which the US is currently in).  So while there's nothing in Trump's persona/statements to indicate anything other than pro-Russian sentiment, there's plenty of reason to see Russian opposition elsewhere.

In the end this means that neither Poroshenko nor Putin know what Trump will do if pushed.  Likewise, the leaders of US' allies are also uncertain, and therefore they are also in a position that is curious to both Poroshenko and Putin.  Specifically, neither one knows what Germany or the UK (for example) might do if Trump shirks the US' responsibility to uphold it's traditional values abroad.

Which is why I think Ukraine and Russia both have a reason to find out where Trump (and by extension European leaders) stand in the face of escalating military activity.

Steve

[HerrTom]

An interesting theory, Steve.  Very compelling.  I wonder, (and rear) what would happen to trigger a full Russian intervention, perhaps like seen in South Ossetia.  Do you think anything short of the imminent collapse of the Donbass republics has a chance of crossing the line?  I guess I'm mostly curious what you think would be red flags in the region.

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, Holien said:

Saw today a Shocking report of people living in flats with minus 8 degrees temperature inside!!!

No, temperature only on one day have dropped to +10, but with switching on reserve scheme of cocko-chemical plant working, the heating became turning back to buildings. Now middle temperature is +15...18 inside. Though, as I have already said most of Avdiivka is individual houses with oven or gas heating.  

Edited February 3, 2017 by Haiduk

[BletchleyGeek]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Which is why I think Ukraine and Russia both have a reason to find out where Trump (and by extension European leaders) stand in the face of escalating military activity.

Steve

They should go and ask him on Twitter, I am pretty sure they would get an answer for the ages.

[QuiGon]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Which is why I think Ukraine and Russia both have a reason to find out where Trump (and by extension European leaders) stand in the face of escalating military activity.

Steve

Looks like the Trump-Administration stands with Ukraine. The newly appointed US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, who is also a member of Trumps National Security Council has now criticized Russia for what is happening in Ukraine and said that the sanctions against russia will stay in place.

[DMS]

8 hours ago, Rinaldi said:

so ridiculous

you're either being deliberately obtuse or are a comedian

This actually made me laugh out loud on the GO train

So bright emotions, because someone in the internet writes wrong things!

8 hours ago, Rinaldi said:

MSF, Journalists Without Borders, Amnesty International, RAND Corp., International Observatories, the ICRC

Please tell me how MSF, Amnesty International e.t.c are related to counting military casualties? Can you give me a link to their reports about VSU or DNR losses? If they are not related, why did you mention them? Beacuse they are NGOs?

[DMS]

Example of city fortifications in Avdeevka.Civilians are evacuated, I hope? Very effective - observation posts and sniper positions in the buldings and shelters in the trenches. Is there covered communication trench to the basement?

Edited February 3, 2017 by DMS

[John Kettler]

Haiduk,

What you've written is a lot to take in. Here's what I believe is what you said. Ukraine shelled what we would call a proxy army assembly area consisting of AFVs in a motel parking lot. Juicy target if ever there was one. Russia's proxy forces got mad and shelled the named Ukrainian National Guard HQ. ATO HQ (shockingly) authorized the counterbattery shelling of several previously off-limits targets, one of which is in Donetsk. Am glad the weather has moderated and that the heat's on again. War is bad enough, as in Syria, but being terribly cold and potentially freezing to death makes it even worse. 

DMS,

Your picture confused me, because my eyes immediately locked up on the tanks in their red ovals, since that's where I thought I was supposed to look. It took a second viewing to notice the defensive works near the image's bottom right. 

Anyone interested,

Since this discussion has at least touched upon national level practices when it comes to casualty reporting, I thought I'd show the US masters at work. Have read only a bit of this monster, but it's vastly worse than even the usual Pentagon "creative accounting" of losses. Its scope is astounding; what was found is horrifying--for all sorts of reasons.

https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/how-the-pentagon-is-hiding-the-dead-862a7b45ce57#.u8h39v77f

On a somewhat less encompassing level, here's how the Pentagon hid the wounded from the Iraq War. It has also systematically kept down various war KIA numbers by not counting those who died of wounds after leaving the theater, both in places like Landstuhl, or after oh so convenient discharge from service for medical reasons. Easier to sell and keep sold a war/s when the true toll remains carefully hidden.

http://www.thepowerhour.com/news/invisible_wounded.htm

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 3, 2017 by John Kettler

[Rinaldi]

5 hours ago, DMS said:

 

Please tell me how MSF, Amnesty International e.t.c are related to counting military casualties? Can you give me a link to their reports about VSU or DNR losses? If they are not related, why did you mention them? Beacuse they are NGOs?

If you think the above NGOs aren't involved in keeping track/attempting to address discrepencies in loss reporting both civilian and military perhaps you are not as knowledgeable about how modern conflicts develop as you like to claim  - perhaps when the Sepratists and Russians begin co-operating with NGOs I will provide a report therein, as it is right now you are as likely to disappear on a fact-finding mission to that side of the fence as you are to come back with anything useful. Cheery!

I've seen all that I've needed to see. Every time you have been confronted with evidence that is too hard to handwave you 'clarify' your position, backpedal or ask what you hope to be rhetorical questions that are actually quite easily addressed by anyone with a scrap of thought - like this latest laughable comment re: NGOs.

I for one commend @Battlefront.com for singlehandedly slapping away the cranks and conspiracy theorists with a calm I can't even bother to muster for the internet- this forum is always so full of them to begin with, but they truly come out in droves when there's a contrarian point to mindlessly defend. See the above post for any further proof of that.

Edit: Its worth noting that I am not without empathy to the DNR 'cause' - fractious and decentralized as that may be. I don't just pay lip service to self-determination, if the Eastern Ukraine truly believe (and this is, frankly, a question worth asking) they should be independent than so be it regardless of my personal feelings about it - I take deep umbrance with their methods and Russia's obstinate involvement, however. I find the situation in the Crimea proper to be wholly criminal on the part of Russia but the Donbass is another matter. Nor do I hold Kiev to be wholly innocent, to suggest otherwise is foolish - the presence and coddling to organizations like Azov is enough cause for criticism there. That being said, on the balance of things I find Kiev to have the more sympathetic and legally sound position viz. Russia and being far more transparent (this is a relative phrase).

Edited February 3, 2017 by Rinaldi
wew lad

[IMHO]

On 2/1/2017 at 7:53 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, I'm aware of all the obligations and also the different interpretations of who is supposed to do what first.  My belief is the aggressor who is solely responsible for this illegal war and is the only party keeping it going should be the one to make the motions to end it as per the signed agreement.  In the West there is a legal term called "act of good faith", and sadly Russia is clearly showing that it isn't interested in doing anything to conform to Minsk 2, especially when it was launching a full offensive to take Debaltseve with freshly deployed Russian Federation forces.  The burden should be on aggressor to move this process forward, not the victim or its supporters.

Again, you can dance around this all you want but the situation remains unchanged... Debaltseve is occupied by Russian and Russian proxy forces in violation of international law, the Budapest agreement, Minsk 1, and Minsk 2.   If you want to equate that with Ukrainian forces retaking a few trenches which they should already have under Minsk 2, you can certainly do that.  But I think it's a foolish point of view to try and justify.

Heh... thanks for saving me the time pointing this out

Steve

Steve,

1. If I may correct, there're no different interpretations on what should be done in what sequence. Hollande and Merkel - not Putin - told Poroshenko that the sequence is fixed in the Minsk agreement. The reason for no progress was exactly because Poroshenko is caught between a hummer and an anvil. If Poroshenko tries to move on the Minks the way it was signed it would mean that DPR/LPR authorities will all of a sudden gain an official status. For that Poroshenko would be overthrown by his own rightwingers in no time. And rewriting Minks to the lines is not an option for Russia or international mediators. France and Germany have better ways to spend time and energy rather than solving somebody else's problems.
2. Retaking few trenches is only equal to restarting the hostilities. If one is sitting on the FEBA and one's adversary starts to move there's no way to know if it's an all out attack or the guys want to get another couple hundred meters and then stop. So here comes the war again. I hope you would agree that people waging war for years would know it before ordering the move. And however inhumane it may be it could have some cruel reason if Ukraine can win. But it cannot so it's just a morbid and senseless loss of life.
3. How about Iraq/Yugoslavia/Kosovo and violation of international law? The list can go on and on...
4. While your position on the right and wrong sides is morally understandable it may be counterproductive. It's impossible to go back to square one. It's a civil war now that will take decades to heal in the best case. Like it's healing step by step in Moldova and Transnistria.

With all due respect to your position...

Edited February 3, 2017 by IMHO

[DMS]

3 hours ago, John Kettler said:

red ovals

I took picture from Khodakovsky blog, he wanted to focus on tanks. "Vostok" have good UAVs. usually pictures have low resolution!

3 hours ago, John Kettler said:

not counting those who died of wounds after leaving the theater

I read that Germans didn't count as KIA soldiers, who died after evacuation by Ju-52. I think it is common practice, due to difficulties comminicating with hospitals in deep rear.

3 hours ago, Rinaldi said:

f you think the above NGOs aren't involved in keeping track/attempting to address discrepencies in loss reporting both civilian and military

I can hardly imagine "Amnesty international" personell, who goes to frontline, tells to soldiers, sneaks to the hospitals, finds relatives and blame goverment for lie. I thought that this organisations have another mission.May be I am unimformed?