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kinophile

US/ NATO v. Russia - Misperceptions.

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The article at the link is about the NVA SA-2 crews and their war against American air power, but it speaks to the point I made earlier. It specifically talks about having Russian military advisors in there monitoring the engagement (from inside the command trailer). This could just as easily be Syria, now, with vastly better weaponry. Be advised the radars in one of the photos aren't the FAN SONG, but are in fact the SPOON REST series acquisition radar (left) and one my sleep-deprived brain hasn't been able to come up with (right), despite a fair amount of digging. I'd feel embarrassed, but I'm too tired!
 
 
Regards,
 
John Kettler
Edited by John Kettler

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1 hour ago, John Kettler said:
The article at the link is about the NVA SA-2 crews and their war against American air power, but it speaks to the point I made earlier. It specifically talks about having Russian military advisors in there monitoring the engagement (from inside the command trailer). This could just as easily be Syria, now, with vastly better weaponry. Be advised the radars in one of the photos aren't the FAN SONG, but are in fact the SPOON REST series acquisition radar (left) and one my sleep-deprived brain hasn't been able to come up with (right), despite a fair amount of digging. I'd feel embarrassed, but I'm too tired!
 
 
Regards,
 
John Kettler

I believe it's a P-15 FLAT FACE search radar.

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As it happens,  War Is Boring. Both blogs are hosted on Medium,  and some weird mis-touch by my fat farmer fingers brought it up. 

Some pretty sensible articles. Everything and I mean everything on the Interwebs needs to be taken with a fistful of salt, but this guy does seem to have a decent methodology. 

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It is easy to see the Russian public being willing to bear the burden of Western sanctions (and Russian counter-sanctions) for the sake of Crimea. That the West is willing to impose more sanctions on Russia for bombing a city full of a quarter million terrorists may hopefully trigger a reality check:

"Syria conflict: US and UK consider new Russia sanctions"

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37670528

 

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Sanctions seem to have a law of diminishing returns -  the first round has immediate effects but a targeted population adapts quickly. Then there's a threshold where the sanction is effectively an act of war,  through its actual effect or anger at the sheer number of them. 

Basically, it appears sanctions are a limited library. 

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8 hours ago, kinophile said:

Sanctions seem to have a law of diminishing returns -  the first round has immediate effects but a targeted population adapts quickly. Then there's a threshold where the sanction is effectively an act of war,  through its actual effect or anger at the sheer number of them. 

Basically, it appears sanctions are a limited library. 

The sanctions against Russia by North America, Europe, Australia, and Japan were not designed to target Russian civilian population. They were designed to target banks and the military industrial complex in an attempt to shake up the oligarchy (Putin's power base) and discourage further naughtiness on Putin's part. The sanctions are by no means extensive, so the average Russian is not exactly under much pressure, though the fall of the Ruble has stung the population slightly. 

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9 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:
9 hours ago, Machor said:

Russia for bombing a city full of a quarter million terrorists may hopefully trigger a reality check:

Um no... Just no.

0:30-0:34

Nailed it!

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6 hours ago, JUAN DEAG said:

0:30-0:34

Nailed it!

Poor civvies! I'm sure Russia targeted the population because they are innocent! Which is not the case. Russia has not signed the treaty where cluster bombing is not permitted same as the U.S. And obviously terrorist locations were targeted in this video and it was not a random strike. But of course you will ignore two very important facts. First being that "rebels" hold the city as hostage, and inevitably when they are targeted for the low light Jihadi scum they are it is likely to result in collateral damage. 

Second being that the so called freedom fighters also shell the government held part of Aleppo which has a very high population compared to the Eastern Aleppo region. So instead of crying about Russian bombs falling on viable Jihadi targets let's look at some facts. I'm not bringing up Coalition collateral damage which was way higher in Iraq. So please stop this nonsense. 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/syria-rebels-behind-alleged-massacre-of-shiites/

https://www.rt.com/news/362612-rt-exclusive-shelling-aleppo/

 

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Well what about Russia's treatment of the Tartars?

Or perhaps more relevantly:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/islamic-state-has-killed-many-syrians-but-assads-forces-have-killed-even-more/2015/09/05/b8150d0c-4d85-11e5-80c2-106ea7fb80d4_story.html

If Russia was concerned about the Syrian people, it should likely have picked different friends.  By most accounts though, you all have just joined in the fun Assad is having.  

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5 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

... First being that "rebels" hold the city as hostage, and inevitably when they are targeted for the low light Jihadi scum they are it is likely to result in collateral damage. 

Hang on - when DNR / LHR "rebels" fire artillery from within their cities and Ukrainian responses cause collateral damage casualties, you blame the Ukrainians. 

Yet Russia or Syria can level a cityblock with cluster munitions because "there's rebels in there somewhere" and it's ok ? :blink:

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5 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

. I'm not bringing up Coalition collateral damage which was way higher in Iraq. So please stop this nonsense. 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/syria-rebels-behind-alleged-massacre-of-shiites/

https://www.rt.com/news/362612-rt-exclusive-shelling-aleppo/

 

No it wasn't. I've been to several major cities in Iraq during the conflict. The Coalition used precision munitions, and although they did inflict severe damage to their targets, very little was done to neighboring structures. Most of the indiscriminate damage was done by the insurgents and their love of large truck bombs.

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Guys -  this is a pointless diversion.

Vlad will never, ever change his pro-Government position, and I doubt any "Westerners"  posting so far will change theirs re Russian actions in Syria. 

Please move past.

Ive signposted several avenues of discussion, branching off from the OP - please do pick one or suggest similar. Or provide a similarly interesting and in depth article. 

Either way,  let's kill the pointless circular argument before it spirals into another endless maze of accusations. 

In short -  please either contribute constructively or don't post. 

If you feel the need to lock horns her second that wonderful,  free button on the forum -  you know,  START TOPIC. 

I'm not an admin, far from it,  just asking for some politeness and calm., and an interesting dialogue. 

 

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2 hours ago, Baneman said:

Hang on - when DNR / LHR "rebels" fire artillery from within their cities and Ukrainian responses cause collateral damage casualties, you blame the Ukrainians. 

Yet Russia or Syria can level a cityblock with cluster munitions because "there's rebels in there somewhere" and it's ok ? :blink:

Well I'll respect kinos request and do the forum a favor but no Ukraine and Syria are not comparable at all. I wrote a long response but let's be honest here no one's changing their mind. You know what I'll just respond. 1. Syria has many factions of foreigners and Syrians mixed influenced and supported by foreign powers... In Donbas there is one unified army with a people's cause. 2. Donbas rebels do not go around beheading you for supporting Assad or in this case Poroshenko. So no absolutely not comparable intensity and plot wise. 

 

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2 hours ago, kinophile said:

Think this seems  condescending ?

Well it's goddamn annoying to watch yet another thread self combust. 

+1 Way off track and heading to closure.Pretty funny too - take a second... one more.  :D

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:-)

Now,  going by this fellow's blog, there is actually a reasonable set of circumstances where Russia could militarily "settle" the Donbass question without a coherent US/NATO response.

It relies primarily on a domestically distracted and weakened EU,  crumbling under 1 or more Exits. This would directly affect NATO, as European Nations in economic and political turmoil will not want to get involved with a resurgent, aggressive  Russia. Effects the EU part of NATO does not want to step in,  I don't see the US part risking lives or treasure for them. 

I'm not saying Russia would have a free hand, but a divided, distracted EU is the same as a divided, distracted NATO. 

Edited by kinophile

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VladimirTarasov,

Though the scale is (mercifully) exceedingly small, the Donbas is not beheading free. Broke the link so the page with photo didn't display. Analysis shows no UA anywhere near scene. Conclusion? Vostok Battalion. This was in 2014. Her apparent offense? Arguing Donbas should have free elections.

ukraineatwar.blogspot  .com 2014/05/graphic-who-killed-beheaded-woman-in.html

"(GRAPHIC) Who killed the beheaded woman in Donetsk? 26-5

On May 26th near the railway station after the Russian rebels had been repelled, the body of a beheaded woman was found..."
 
Separate item
 
Then we have Chechens enthusiastically recruiting--for Allah! Taken from
 
 
"In this article favorite terrorist Babai is complaining that the Chechen asked him to submit to Allah. He said he was Orthodox and so they took his gun, threatened him to cut his tongue off and nearly raped him."
 
That same link also describes blatant evidence Vostok manufactured a "war crime" massacre of prisoners by piling corpses into the back and shooting up the truck from the front and side. The problem is the metal damage shows bullets fired from inside and going out, not to mention the truck was fleeing and had no damage to its rear.
 
And looking at the other side of things--with a clear cut statement on the home page  THIS SITE IS DEDICATED TO THE VICTIMS OF WAR CRIMES IN DONBAS COMMITED BY THE KIEV FASCIST REGIME we have GENOCIDE IN DONBAS.
 
 
On the site you will find decapitation claims against Kiev's forces. Other authorities come down hard on both sides.
 
"Both Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have highlighted mounting evidence that both sides in the conflict have violated international laws of war in a host of ways, including indiscriminate use of artillery in populated areas, irregular detention, torture and even executions."
 
Be advised the link ending in /954-2/ gets very graphic (morgue footage).
 
Regards,
 
John Kettler



 
Edited by John Kettler

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