War on the rocks - hypothetical NATO-RUS

[Haiduk]

23 minutes ago, kinophile said:

I was very surprised that it was available in practical numbers AND that there was sufficient appropriate ammunition. 

What is the situation regarding ATGMs? Has it improved? Stabilized? Worsened? 

No useful ammunition for these guns. Mostly smoke and training shells for D-44. About ammunition for ZIS-3 can't say anything. These guns were spotted in one unit, so this is either exclusion or even joke - our soldiers like to make photo with rarity old weapon %) Thogh MG Maxim and PTRD uses widely.

ATGMs. In 2014 from stores on the front went oldest missiles AT-4B. 30-40 %, sometimes up to 50 % of its loss control after launch or even didn't want to launch. Now most of missiles are AT-4C, but number of failed launches anyway still on 20-30 % level. Actively turning back to service AT-destroyers 9P148 "Konkurs" (AT-5). AT-destroyers "Shturm" mostly present in artillery brigades, though episodically participated in winter campaign in 2015. During Debaltsevo battle one "Shturm" have destroyed three enemy armored vehicles, three vehicles were lost in Vuhlehirsk (rus.Uglegorsk). New ATGM Stugna-P is producing very slowly. According to White book 10 ATGMs went to troops in 2014 and 30 in 2015 (quantity for five batatlions equipping). Also 507 misiles  RK-2S for "Stuhna-P" and "Barrier" (on BTR-3/4) in 2015. ATGM "Korsar" encountered with problems of ergonomic - for operator too hard to hold heavy construction on own shoulder and aim target. Now designed new support, but its also not so good. Decision about this ATGM will be assumed to the end of 2016. Possibly it will not be adopted, though RK-3 missiles dor it are producing for RWS "Sarmat" on armored cars "Spartan".

[Haiduk]

51 minutes ago, Krater said:

Also, I just read that the director of Kharkov Tank Factory was arrested for conspiring with Russia to sabotage production. 

 

Oh, no. Not tank, but tractor factory ). And not arrested, alas. He had time to run away before a court move own ass with sanction. Kharkiv tractor factory shares to this time belong to Russian owners (aha, 3rd year of war...). Director received a task to preapre most value equipment for moving to Russia, 2/3 of workers would be fired. SBU have uncovered this plan and court arrested property and bank accounts. But director have time to flee.  

 

Edited June 5, 2016 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

Holy moly. There's a film in that story. And that's just the civilian sector. 

I'm curious, has the MoD issued a prioritized list of equipment and machines? Ie build this and ONLY this.  Or is it still trying to determine the final TOE? Is it a complete mess over there of competing personalities and departments  or is consolidation and sensible professionalism becoming stronger? 

[Battlefront.com]

I'm not surprised the accuracy sucks.  Those are direct fire and were intended to be fired from the air.  Trying to use them as a land based MLRS substitute seems to me a very tough thing to do.  However, bringing one of these into a firefight might be rather interesting!

Steve

[Haiduk]

47 minutes ago, kinophile said:

I'm curious, has the MoD issued a prioritized list of equipment and machines? Ie build this and ONLY this.  Or is it still trying to determine the final TOE? Is it a complete mess over there of competing personalities and departments  or is consolidation and sensible professionalism becoming stronger? 

2016 year have declared as year of aircraft and air-defense. Our leaders seriously prepare to worth variant, when Putin can start full-scale invasion and we will encounter with hordes of enemy aviation and ballstic missiles. So, for this year we have plans to return to service several dozens of aircraft and battalions of SAMs. Of course, we can't defeat Russian air forces, but can inflict them unacceptable losses. But detailed plan of year defense purchasing is classified.  

Edited June 5, 2016 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

Considering those clever lads built a crowd sourced fires support  targeting system from the ground up,  I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they do something similar for this mini-grad system. 

This seems like a great company level organic fire support,  if the targeting can be worked out. 

If.... 

Edited June 5, 2016 by kinophile

[VladimirTarasov]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

2016 year have declared as year of aircraft and air-defense. Our leaders seriously prepare to worth variant, when Putin can start full-scale invasion and we will encounter with hordes of enemy aviation and ballstic missiles. So, for this year we have plans to return to service several dozens of aircraft and battalions of SAMs. Of course, we can't defeat Russian air forces, but can inflict them unacceptable losses. But detailed plan of year defense purchasing is classified.  

Certainly Ukrainian SAM systems can damage the RuAF, however I don't think the RuAF would suffer unacceptable losses(lessons learned from Georgia). Cruise missiles and other tactical missiles are now the forefront of any invasion plans of the Russian armed forces. However, I don't think CAS would be so available because Ukraine does possess dangerous AA assets, and if a mistake is made by Russian command to not deal with this issue, then indeed Ukraine can hurt RuAF operations very badly. Also MLRS of the Russian armed forces would atleast push strategic AA assets 90 KM away from front lines. It is a smart move by the Ukrainian government to activate SAM units. As you said RuAF can't be defeated but depending on the strategy Ukrainian defenses could halt air attacks, which will work in the favor of Ukraine. Which hopefully for Ukraine can help them fight on equal grounds.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

2016 year have declared as year of aircraft and air-defense. Our leaders seriously prepare to worth variant, when Putin can start full-scale invasion and we will encounter with hordes of enemy aviation and ballstic missiles. So, for this year we have plans to return to service several dozens of aircraft and battalions of SAMs. Of course, we can't defeat Russian air forces, but can inflict them unacceptable losses. But detailed plan of year defense purchasing is classified.  

Interesting. So it's essentially official that the Ukraine has no intention this year of unpausing  the Donbass War. 

If 2016  is Air and SAM,  which take say 2-3 years to become effective, then 2017-18 will focus far more on ground forces,, with some bones thrown to the navy. 

It dies make sense to set the rebuilding of the UKR air force and A2AD systems now, due to their longer lead-in time. Once they're in motion then focus on ground forces,  particularly Anti-armor systems and artillery. 

I'd say 2018-19 and we'll see some form of activity again from the UA, possibly a steady incessant encroachment on Separatist territory,  under a strong anti-air umbrella.

Company size Bite and Hold tactics with the withheld capacity to scale quickly to batt/brig., in tandem with economic incentives, political concessions, propaganda and ideally a reasonably effective civilian support system. 

Might work. 

 

Edited June 6, 2016 by kinophile

[AttorneyAtWar]

If I was Ukraine I would also be very worried about ballistic and cruise missile defense, hopefully you guys have systems that are capable of that. In a full spectrum conflict the Russians have the capacity to do some serious damage with naval and air based cruise missiles far enough away to where you have to shoot down the munition instead of the platform firing it.

 

Does Ukraine have any version of S-300 or do you rely on more legacy systems like SA-6 and SA-11?

Edited June 5, 2016 by Raptorx7

[Kinophile]

6 minutes ago, Raptorx7 said:

Does Ukraine have any version of S-300 or do you rely on more legacy systems like SA-6 and SA-11?

Not really relevant but according to Wikipedia the next naval version of the BUK will be NATO codenamed GOLLUM..

Edited June 6, 2016 by kinophile

[TheForwardObserver]

We did just activate a ballistic missile defense base in Romania, but that's completely un-related to any ballistic missile posturing or capabilities of the Government of Russia.  Wouldn't want anybody in the middle east thinking they'd get away with altering paradigms in Europe with ballistic missile threats.  

[AttorneyAtWar]

1 minute ago, TheForwardObserver said:

We did just activate a ballistic missile defense base in Romania, but that's completely un-related to any ballistic missile posturing or capabilities of the Government of Russia.  Wouldn't want anybody in the middle east thinking they'd get away with altering paradigms in Europe with ballistic missile threats.  

AEGIS ashore should be coming to Poland as well I believe.

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, Raptorx7 said:

Does Ukraine have any version of S-300 or do you rely on more legacy systems like SA-6 and SA-11?

We have Buk M1, S-300PM, S-300PT, S-300V1. Completed works of S-125 upgrade, but while no decision about its adopting. Also conduct works upon new SAM "Dnipro", which will be something middle by range between Buk and S-300 and will be capable to intercept any missiles unlike S-300V1, which has some limitations on this task. Also finishing works of anti-ship missile "Neptun" in versions of coast, naval and aerial basement. Continue works under tactical missile complex "Sapsan" and cruise missile complex "Korshun". Two month ago were conducted two tests of guided rocket "Vill'kha" of MLRS "Smerch" - like in US HIMARS. 

We understand, that Russia became real enemy not for some years, but on tens years or even on time of several generations. Even Putin will gone, his place can occupie even worth leader with neo-empire ambitions or somebody from "hawks" party. Russians love "tough leaders", and like when "all around scare us". So, nobody will not die for us and nobody will not help us because nobody don't want to have a deal with unpredictable bear with nuclear cudgel... Only by own forces and of cousrse with western diplomacy support...

Edited June 6, 2016 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

Overall that sounds like a very active weapons R&D sector. But how are the lead-in times? Are these weapons in development hell or are they actually moving forward? 

I think  someone said here that the Ukraine is 'shut out of the international weapons market'.  Is this true? If so,  why? Ukraine has no western  sanctions against it.... 

How much cooperation is there between  UKR and Poland? Those Polish T72s coil d sure be useful...

I've heard of the proposed eastern Europe international brigades, how realistic are they? 

 

 

[Sublime]

I think at least Ukr has been shut out because Russia essentially drew their own ' red line ' basically saying providing lethal aid to Ukr would cause beaucoup problems. (Iirc Steve gad mentioned this regarding why the US hasnt send a horde of javelins to the Ukraine) I dont know if that really only applied to NATO, if the rest of the world is taking the lead from NATO not officially doing so, or what.

[Baneman]

1 hour ago, kinophile said:

...I think  someone said here that the Ukraine is 'shut out of the international weapons market'.  Is this true? If so,  why? Ukraine has no western  sanctions against it.... 
...

Never understood the international communities' approach to this sort of thing - cf. Balkan conflict where an arms embargo was slapped on to the participants, severely hampering the attacked nations' ability to defend themselves while barely bothering the aggressors ( caveat : I'm no expert, but that's certainly what it looked like to me as a layman )

16 minutes ago, Sublime said:

I think at least Ukr has been shut out because Russia essentially drew their own ' red line ' basically saying providing lethal aid to Ukr would cause beaucoup problems. (Iirc Steve gad mentioned this regarding why the US hasnt send a horde of javelins to the Ukraine) I dont know if that really only applied to NATO, if the rest of the world is taking the lead from NATO not officially doing so, or what.

Also cannot see why Russia's methods can't be used against it - "what weapons ? Certainly didn't come from us. On vacation maybe ?"

[Sublime]

Oh I entirely agree. And no insult intended to the average Russian guy but as a nation state the Russians havent ever had a problem with being utterly hypocritical in the past and shamelessly so.

Of course so have many nations including mine. But the Russians... they really seem to take the cake at that for some reason.

Finally i think part is genuine fear of what exactly the Russians will do. Contrary to whatever RT or sputnik is saying noone in the west wants a war or to take over Russia.  Christ you tell most people in the west something was made in russia theyll probably assume its poorly made let alone our populations wanting to conquer or push around Russia. Its truly ironic when reading Russian media youd think every Western move revolves around what Russia does and honestly Russia was below the reality tv show Survivor as far as peoples interest until this Ukraine Syria etc behavior. And the average westerner on the street still really could care less what the russians do. When its in Russia. The fear comes in because though Russians may say they believe otherwse EVERYONE knows what Putin says goes there whilst the same cannot be said about any Western power. No western country has the same level of unilateral control by one man nor someone around so long. Not in decades.

So the Syrians cross Obamas red line. Nothing happens. What if we cross Russias? I think a lot of people are afraid Putin may be that nuts or that putin knows that if he.s toppled he.ll probably be put in prison or killed. Guys made a lot of enemies. So if he.s dead either way if toppled why not use nukes if feels like a coup is his alternative?

Edited June 6, 2016 by Sublime

[Kinophile]

I guess that's the primary question around any Ukrainian offensive -  how will Putin react? At least with him we gave severs L decades of experience to draw on. Not as useful as would be liked,  but better than nothing. His successor though,  if not Medvedev,  will be a trickier one. 

[VladimirTarasov]

I think Javelins were not sent into Ukraine because if UA were to receive these weapons, just like the other equipment soldiers were forced to abandon the same would happen with the Javelins. And if Separs get their hands on Javelins then Russia will get its hands on it. Javelins wouldn't really have changed the outlook so much, it would shape tactical level offensives although. Artillery would be used way more often if that were to be the case, and also I'd think a commander would think twice before sending a assault through an open field. (limiting attack directions) 

Also, can we please stop with the Putin is a devil or Russia is a demon type stuff, he was elected president by his people and his approval rating is high. If he has invaded Eastern Ukraine sure in your eyes its evil but that doesn't change the fact that no one bashes NATO when they support other rebellions against other countries. (TOW-2s in Syria training Syrian rebels) Bombing Libya supporting rebels, over 1 million people being effected in Iraq, ect, ect. I don't want to come out as offensive but I'm getting offended by people constantly demonizing Russia or Russians, whilst not looking at their own nations doings. 

[Kinophile]

True,  that stuff is for another thread.

My own bias has been clear but such opinions are irrelevant to the discussion here,  namely UKR military capabilities and options in the event of a future escalation of the Donbass War. 

[Codename Duchess]

As a comment on approval ratings and the like, that's not a fair assessment of legitimacy. Kim Jong Un receives something like 99.9% of the vote and he's not exactly a stellar guy. The US Congress meanwhile has like a 10% approval rating which I think actually lends to the legitimacy of the system in our honesty.

[VladimirTarasov]

20 minutes ago, Codename Duchess said:

As a comment on approval ratings and the like, that's not a fair assessment of legitimacy. Kim Jong Un receives something like 99.9% of the vote and he's not exactly a stellar guy. The US Congress meanwhile has like a 10% approval rating which I think actually lends to the legitimacy of the system in our honesty.

We're talking about totally different political systems here, different histories, and different national mentalities. I don't think it would be fair to compare in such a way, because Kim Jong Un is a psychopath and dictator.

I don't want to get this thread locked it has informational arguments in it. So let's try to get back into topic. 

Haiduk so far I am impressed at the reforms of the Ukrainian military industry, AA and anti-ship capabilities is a must for Ukraine against a possible Russian-Ukraine war. And I think your government has made a smart choice.

Edited June 6, 2016 by VladimirTarasov

[Codename Duchess]

I recognize there are loads of differences in the political system, but I just wanted to point out that metric you use isn't perfect. And there are plenty of folks outside Russia who think that if Putin isn't a dictator, he certainly flirts with the definition. I'm not saying I am one of those people but there are clues out there, a big one being unfortunate accidents happening to dissident leaders and journalists. If Frank Underwood can do it, so cano Putin.

Edited June 6, 2016 by Codename Duchess

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, kinophile said:

Overall that sounds like a very active weapons R&D sector. But how are the lead-in times? Are these weapons in development hell or are they actually moving forward? 

I think  someone said here that the Ukraine is 'shut out of the international weapons market'.  Is this true? If so,  why? Ukraine has no western  sanctions against it.... 

How much cooperation is there between  UKR and Poland? Those Polish T72s coil d sure be useful...

I've heard of the proposed eastern Europe international brigades, how realistic are they? 

 

 

No any info about works under missiles programs. It is top classified info.

Not only weapons. We even couldn't buy engines for BTR-3/4 during two years. Germany and USA rejected to sell its because "this can inflict more casualties in the war".  Only at the end of 2015 first Deutz and Mercedes engines arrived to us...

We have not so big number of useful T-72 for deep upgrade to PT-91 level and T-72 never will not main in army, so for what to spend money, which critically need in other segments of defense program.

Combined Ukrainian-Polish-Lithuanian brigade is creating now (recently its existed as battlion), but it is mostly for peacemakers operations and for maneuvers - both under NATO aegis and local. From Ukrainian side in this project participates battalion of 95th or 80th airmobile brigades, but of course in free time from the war...   

Edited June 6, 2016 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

I think Javelins were not sent into Ukraine because if UA were to receive these weapons, just like the other equipment soldiers were forced to abandon the same would happen with the Javelins. And if Separs get their hands on Javelins then Russia will get its hands on it.

You mentioned this before and it is still incorrect.  The US is not arming Ukraine with "offensive weapons" because Putin stated, very clearly, that this would escalate things very badly.  Unlike Russia, the West wants this conflict to end and therefore it is not going to do something to directly make it worse.  It is not very fair of him, considering all the weapons, munitions, and even troops that Russia has put into Ukraine, but there's never been a time when this has been about fairness.  This is about Russian control over Ukraine's destiny and Russia's internal problems pure and simple.

Russia already has Javelins to experiment with, I guarantee it.  Having something and producing a copy are two entirely different things.  Russia has had direct access to Abrams technology for 20+ years and yet it still doesn't have anything that can compete with an Abrams.

 

Quote

Also, can we please stop with the Putin is a devil or Russia is a demon type stuff, he was elected president by his people and his approval rating is high. If he has invaded Eastern Ukraine sure in your eyes its evil but that doesn't change the fact that no one bashes NATO when they support other rebellions against other countries. (TOW-2s in Syria training Syrian rebels) Bombing Libya supporting rebels, over 1 million people being effected in Iraq, ect, ect. I don't want to come out as offensive but I'm getting offended by people constantly demonizing Russia or Russians, whilst not looking at their own nations doings. 

I don't think anybody thinks Putin is a demon.  He's against democratic principles and is waging a war of aggression against Ukraine AND lying about it every single day, but that is not demonic.  Putin is also not insane or mentally unstable, but he certainly is an autocratic ruler (democratic leaders don't assassinate, imprison, and expel their critics).  I don't see why Putin should not be held accountable for his actions and the actions of the people under him.  There's plenty of criticisms about Western actions here on this Forum and everywhere else.  In fact, the Western critics are far more insightful and thorough about it because they have access to better information.

Steve