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John Kettler

The National Interest cover story says chance of US-Russia war over Ukraine increasing!

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It is fricken Pat Buchanan for crying out loud. Since when did any of his prognostications earn an exclamation point?

He's still around?  Yeah, why would anyone want to dig that fossil up and ask him to comment on anything.

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It is fricken Pat Buchanan for crying out loud. Since when did any of his prognostications earn an exclamation point?

 

When it's Kettler linking to the article.

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I always worry about being a Pat Buchanan.  Not in the political alignment sense nearly as much as continuing to exist and insisting on making noise long after I have passed from relevancy.  

 

Think we're pretty past the point of high possibility of war.  Russia's hand has gone about as far as it can reasonably go, western interests are not threatened to the degree that more NATO exercises and modest military funding boosts won't smooth over.  Something stupid could still happen, but it's not any worse than any given day in 1985 or something.  

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sburke,

 

Unfortunately, I'm way past the window for removing the exclamation point. I would note, though, Yahoo has a bunch of Ukraine and region stories.

 

173rd Airborne Brigade in Ukraine training the Ukraine National Guard

 

http://news.yahoo.com/300-us-troops-ukraine-train-ukrainian-forces-us-073153737.html

 

Russia resurgent & Finns worried  NATO membership not an option

 

http://news.yahoo.com/resurgent-russia-worries-finns-nato-not-option-161002400.html

 

Moscow says US paratrooper presence in Ukraine could reignite fighting

 

http://news.yahoo.com/us-troops-ukrainian-soil-could-reignite-fighting-moscow-210913750.html

That's only a partial list. 

 

 

Regards,

 

John Kettler 

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173rd Airborne Brigade in Ukraine training the Ukraine National Guar

 

Members of the 173rd IBCT are there, the Brigade itself is something like 90% elsewhere.

 

 

 

Moscow says US paratrooper presence in Ukraine could reignite fighting

 

It's their way of blaming the US for the fighting Russia is largely in control of when it comes to intensity.  IF YOU DIDN'T TALK SO MUCH ON THE PHONE I WOULDN'T BEAT OUR KID and somesuch.

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panzersaurkrautwerfer,

 

I meant to say something about force size, but got distracted. What I should've said was "elements of the 173rd Airborne Brigade..."I believe the number is 300 or so. More than enough to rile Putin, who seems to believe that no one should do anything to impede his efforts to restore Russian greatness. At the neighbors' expense. Thus, the veiled and naked threats over arming Ukraine, over US forces w/wo NATO operating in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea; then there are Iskander deployments in Crimea and Kaliningrad, nuclear threats to Denmark if Denmark participates in joint NATO naval exercises, not to mention ADIZ intrusions in Scotland, buzzing the USS Donald Cook (again) and nearly ramming an RC-135U operating over international waters over the Baltic.

 

Regards,

 

John Kettler

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Re: Kettler

 

Again though, is this any worse than a mild day in the 1980's?  Russia will not collapse into anarchy if Ukraine suddenly retakes Donbass due to elite warrior skills from US paratroopers, the West has had Russian nuclear weapons pointed at it since the first Russian ICBM came online, and has been threatened with same off and on (see the Polish missile shield funtimes for similar threats).  We're well short of hamming plowshares into swords.   

 

It's a bit nastier than the 1993-2008 years, but it's no worse than 1945-1990 in terms of being "on the edge"

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It's a bit nastier than the 1993-2008 years, but it's no worse than 1945-1990 in terms of being "on the edge"

 

That I certainly agree with. The question that many analysts ask though - Is that a good thing that we have regressed to the Cold War era dynamic?

 

I personally find it to be a natural force of change that has occurred not because either side is evil or unjustified; but rather because that is the way that geopolitical dynamics are laid out right now. Do I find it to be a good thing... Hell no! But it is certainly not something that we have not been through before, nor is it the worst thing that could happen either, as you correctly point out.

Edited by DreDay

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Can't see the US stepping in to fight against Russia unless  Russia attack\invade US territory, that's the only way I can see it happening. The UK for instance has been severely weakened in Russian eyes with regards to the British public refusing to except even minor casualties and the UK government way to scared to get involved in any conflict unless we were about to be invaded due to  Iraq and the lack of WMD's etc. I expect Russia would be allowed to take all her old lands back without the West getting involved..infact I'm sure of it. All it will be is sanctions and harsh words and I reckon Putin knows this.

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Can't see the US stepping in to fight against Russia unless  Russia attack\invade US territory, that's the only way I can see it happening. The UK for instance has been severely weakened in Russian eyes with regards to the British public refusing to except even minor casualties and the UK government way to scared to get involved in any conflict unless we were about to be invaded due to  Iraq and the lack of WMD's etc. I expect Russia would be allowed to take all her old lands back without the West getting involved..infact I'm sure of it. All it will be is sanctions and harsh words and I reckon Putin knows this.

 

True, but there is a flip side to that coin... Russia would never want to fight US/NATO unless its territory is attacked either. What that means is that there is a competition (that we are currently winning) on who gets their "trip-wire" forces to a disputed area first.  Of course there are plenty of other factors and dynamics that go into it as well; but at this point it would be completely counterproductive for Russia (forget Putin for a second) to "get all her old lands back". They simply can not afford it neither economically, nor politically.

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US has increased chance of going to war with Russia in the same way you might have an increased risk of getting into a fistfight with your next door neighbor because he's becoming increasingly erratic from drinking. Its not due to anything we've done. Putin is showing signs of being clinically insane - the Hitler kind of insane. The macho ultra-nationalism, the cult of personality, the messianic expansionist ambitions, the sense of aggrieved national victimhood, the constant hysterical demonization of his perceived 'enemies'. Add to that his willingness to take dangerous risks because he thinks he can get away with it without cost. Its 1932 all over again (including the anschluss of Ukrainian Crimea). Lucky for us Russia has an economy the size of Italy and no allies. The old 'Warsaw pact' had about twice the population base of present day Russia and Russia's former allies are more than likely to join the fight against them than join with them. Even Belarus is arming themselves to defend against Russian aggression! There only so many Cossack organized crime mercenaries that Putin can take on as 'allies'.

 

Expect the Ukraine war to resume in the spring. Putin still wants that direct railway link to Crimea in eastern Ukraine and he has quite a lot of territory he still  needs to take for it. That's the real reason for the war. Putin doesn't give two hoots about 'Novo Russia'

Edited by MikeyD

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Re: Kettler

 

Again though, is this any worse than a mild day in the 1980's?  Russia will not collapse into anarchy if Ukraine suddenly retakes Donbass due to elite warrior skills from US paratroopers, the West has had Russian nuclear weapons pointed at it since the first Russian ICBM came online, and has been threatened with same off and on (see the Polish missile shield funtimes for similar threats).  We're well short of hamming plowshares into swords.   

 

It's a bit nastier than the 1993-2008 years, but it's no worse than 1945-1990 in terms of being "on the edge"

 

I see that point and think it can be viewed that way. But also I think the risk and the hazards can be viewed as higher than for periods of the Cold War.

 

The risk is increased because the old SU was very much a rational actor- somewhat less rational actions are more likely when power is so narrowly held. Plus, their new strategic doctrine seems riddled with risk, and potential miscalculations.

 

The reliance of the internet is increasing the risk and hazard of something full spectrum warfare.

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US has increased chance of going to war with Russia in the same way you might have an increased risk of getting into a fistfight with your next door neighbor because he's becoming increasingly erratic from drinking. Its not due to anything we've done. Putin is showing signs of being clinically insane - the Hitler kind of insane. The macho ultra-nationalism, the cult of personality, the messianic expansionist ambitions, the sense of aggrieved national victimhood, the constant hysterical demonization of his perceived 'enemies'. Add to that his willingness to take dangerous risks because he thinks he can get away with it without cost. Its 1932 all over again (including the anschluss of Ukrainian Crimea). Lucky for us Russia has an economy the size of Italy and no allies. The old 'Warsaw pact' had about twice the population base of present day Russia and Russia's former allies are more than likely to join the fight against them than join with them. Even Belarus is arming themselves to defend against Russian aggression! There only so many Cossack organized crime mercenaries that Putin can take on as 'allies'.

 

Expect the Ukraine war to resume in the spring. Putin still wants that direct railway link to Crimea in eastern Ukraine and he has quite a lot of territory he still  needs to take for it. That's the real reason for the war. Putin doesn't give two hoots about 'Novo Russia'

 

Nicely done good sir! You have managed to summarise every single streotype and "thinking point" that is fed to us about Russia. I am a little dissapointed not to see any mention of Polonium or homophobia; but otherwise - you got it down to the T! Bravo!!

Edited by DreDay

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Nice try again Dre...

 

Stereotype? Of course that's it! Not a grain of truth there at all. And WHO gets FED information by WHOs government? Hmmmmmm....

 

Even my Ukraine-born wife (who only moved over here 10 years ago), sees the difference now that she doesn't live over there, and she's furious with Russia and Putin. She used to be very pro-Putin. Then she was able to read ALL the news, and now thinks very differently (and yes, she has a TON of Ukraine/Russia sites she still reads, so please don't try and tell us it's because all she reads is US propaganda!).

Edited by kaburke61

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A GDP like Italy ? More like Germany adjusted for purchasing power :

 

You realized you linked us to something about Hong Kong and Macau right?

 

Regardless even if you did post the correct link, Russia's economy is dwarfed several times over by the West.  It's just a question if it's super-dwarfed, or mega dwarfed at the end of the day.  

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and of course it is dwarfed, i'm not debating this. But it's still a big piece to swallow. USA + EUropean Union is 34 together. Anyway, nuclear umbrella and sleep peacefully LOL

Edited by antaress73

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