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Ukraine Rules of Engagement


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This discussion has remained generally tactical, as it should be regarding CMBS. What concerns me is Sburke's comment, ..."and then it gets interesting."

 

Can this group agree on possible outcomes? If not, what can be ruled out:

 

1. Russia's fortunes improve significantly, Putin gets much of what he wants, and NATO (the West) backs down. Possible?

2. The opposite happens and Putin decides to go full scale? What is the West's response?

 

If there's no point in addressing these strategic issues, no problem. I don't expect to sleep any better tonight.

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This discussion has remained generally tactical, as it should be regarding CMBS. What concerns me is Sburke's comment, ..."and then it gets interesting."

 

Can this group agree on possible outcomes? If not, what can be ruled out:

 

1. Russia's fortunes improve significantly, Putin gets much of what he wants, and NATO (the West) backs down. Possible?

2. The opposite happens and Putin decides to go full scale? What is the West's response?

 

If there's no point in addressing these strategic issues, no problem. I don't expect to sleep any better tonight.

I wish I could, but Putin to me is the unknown variable. I don't know what is his redline for what is unacceptable and therefore he goes all in. I also don't know what forces might exist in Russia to remove him should he cross an unacceptable redline nor do I know how much the Russian population will truly accept. I don't buy that Russians are so unified behind Putin as keeps getting stated. I suspect rather Russians aren't very far off from any other group of people. They first want some level of economic and social stability and after that they want their personal freedoms. Putin had been delivering to some degree on the first two while eliminating the last. He is increasingly unable to provide the first two. How long before that social contract collapses? So far he has foisted blame on the west for his adventurism. As Russia's young men keep coming home in body bags, when do Russians decide this is not what they want?

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I can't see the average Russian buying into whatever promises he's given. Nor have his actions contributed to the dream of a Russian resurgence - yet. The populace at large has long been cynical of government by nature, don't you think? And a change would bring "reformers" not hardliners, and maybe that's all wishful thinking.

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I can't see the average Russian buying into whatever promises he's given. Nor have his actions contributed to the dream of a Russian resurgence - yet. The populace at large has long been cynical of government by nature, don't you think? And a change would bring "reformers" not hardliners, and maybe that's all wishful thinking.

 

He's telling them they're right to be deeply offended at the west, and after a long stretch of Russia being weak, he's offering them a "Strong" Russia.

 

It's confirmation bias at this point.  He's telling them he's making Russia strong. Aramatas will be trotted out (although I think they might be less operational than let on), Ukrainians shot, NATOs ignored, Russia must be strong now....while totally ignoring the basket case economy, reliance on effectively western goodwill for prosperity and a lack of meaningful foreign policy except for flipping the west the bird and cuddling up with despots.  But hey let's talk about those sweet guns and that butter that is totally coming one sunny day!

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