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kohlenklau

Forum Thread Counts and Replies Benchmark 6FEB2015

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Hmmm, I figured I would write this down and see how the counts go up. I think this CMBS is gonna be a huge winner for BFC. If so, congratulations to them. Maybe growth in forum threads and replies can be an indication of activity and thus sales?

 

6 Feb 2015

 

Forum-threads-replies

 

CMBS-443-11677

 

CMRT-1734-32518

 

CMT-89-606

 

CMFI-2032-33767

 

CMBN-11027-165643

 

CMSF-11913-200142

 

CMA-287-3074 

 

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We'll give it a few weeks to build the data. Then plot it and see.

Like tracking your wife's menstrual cycle, could provide some serious insight...

Judging from the trend it does indeed seem that the Black Sea is just going through the roof. I don't know how well do forum statistics correlate with sales, though. But I would say - this is a wild ass guess - that it's probably already selling better than CMFI and RT.

We'll know for sure if the next release happens to be a Black Sea module :)

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Oh boy, the ww2'ers are put out to pasture? no bulge, no east front. :-(

All for the modwarians and their cash!

 

<..wakes up in a cold sweat and checks his watch...>

 

just a nightmare...

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OK, let me see if I understand this graph!

The date of the wife's last menstrual cycle was the 3rd so she should be ovulating and receptive to her husband's advances around when..? Answer: PAYDAY dumb a$$!

 

So, our red line is CMBS and it shows that it is taking less and less days to create 125 topics (125 new threads). Holy Smoke, the internet will crash! :D

But it looks like purple FI exhibited this trend before but it will die off. What is that spike in purple FI, when days to create 125 topics decreased for a while, maybe Gustav line released?

 

Poor old CMFI forum, now pretty slow to make new threads. crickets chirping in the background.

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Interesting how long lasting the interest in BN topics was. Compared to all later releases.

They seem to create shorter and shorters peaks of interest and then quickly wane off.

If forum activity is positively correlated with sales, then I believe this inidcates that new releases create shorter spikes of sales. If this is correct, then they maybe should ask themselfes, why is that.

I know that I am interested in a new software release the more new useful functions it offers and therefore the more it differs in FUNCTIONALITY. For example I am not interested in new infantry, since the difference is mostly only a texture and probably a bit in firepower. And if the short range or long range firepower is different, I can easily adopt to it. But it probably doesn't change my gaming experience.

But as a potential customer I am much more interested - for example - if the campaign system can simulate battles that endure several days on the same battlefield, or if I would be a realtime player, if the game would offer replay for a few seconds, or if units can be selected by clicking on their movement paths.

Gamewise I am not interested if the German infantry battalion differs from the one to the last release, or if a tank variant differs from another by 10 mm at the turret front. The impact of these changes on the gaming experience seems minimal, compared to other changes. And the bigger the changes I'd guess the bigger the interest. The more shallow a release is, the shorter the spike of interest.

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1 week later, Let's see how we are doing?

 

Forum-threads-replies

 

CMBS-443-11677 (UP BY 170-2170) to 613-13847

 

CMRT-1734-32518 (UP BY 15-181) to 1749-32699

 

CMT-89-606 no change

 

CMFI-2032-33767 (UP BY 4-79) to 2036-33846

 

CMBN-11027-165643 (UP BY 25-264) to 11052-165907

 

CMSF-11913-200142 (UP BY 2-13) to 11915-200155

 

CMA-287-3074 no change

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I'm thinking they may have rushed a patch for Black Sea when normally they would have waited for more fixes in order to get rid of the unintentional swastikas in a couple of the quick battle maps and the possible embarrasement it could have caused had news of it become widespread. Also we probably would have gotten a Red Thunder patch sooner had they known how long fixing the building enrty bug was going to take. My understanding is they wanted to fix it for the first patch and it kept taking more and more time to isolate the problem. This is interesting. Thanks for doing it. Yes I think Black Sea is a big hit

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I think the only thing you can really tell is that while there is plenty of crossover, there is also a distinct community really into the modern stuff. I suspect Normandy and Bulge will still be top selling items as BF has continually said that period generates most sales. I do wonder though if that dynamic is changing with time as we get further and further from that generation. Is the younger audience more prone to be interested in current?

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I will coin a new term called the "new restaurant effect" where one forum can be all abuzz and enjoy new threads and replies but they are there talking about the upcoming release of another game! :D

I definitely see that CMBN forum has enjoyed that. 

 

When will we see a Bulge forum? I want to make the first thread! :D

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6 March 2015 ( a month later)

 

Forum-threads-replies

 

CMBS-443-11677 now 860-19103

 

CMRT-1734-32518 now 1786-33281

 

CMT-89-606 now ....the same!

 

CMFI-2032-33767 now 2049-34027

 

CMBN-11027-165,643 now 11,111-166,973

 

CMSF-11913-200,142 now 11920-200,207

 

CMA-287-3074 now 289-3075

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almost 2 months later....

Forum-threads-replies

CMBS-443-11677 after 1 month became 860-19103 now after almost 2 months later 990-22093 seems to be less steep!

CMRT-1734-32518 , 1786-33281, 1824-33815

CMt ..flatlined...CODE BLUE!! STAT!!!! ,<dramatic doctor scene pounding patient's chest,...>

CMFI-2032-33767, 2049-34027, 2066-34,249

CMBN-11027-165,643 : 11,111-166,973   :  11,175-168,028

CM Bulge 0-0  <hint, hint!>

I won't track the others anymore...

Edited by kohlenklau

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well the setting of cmbs is in the news so that helps . also steve has been posting in the cmbs forum alot so that helps too. but for me i am waiting anxiously for the bulge. bought cmbs and like it, but still find myself going back to shock force for some reason.

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Thanks for tracking this - it is kind of interesting.

 

Personally I hope they put off a dedicated Bulge folder for as long as possible and then a week longer.  :)  The earlier the forum opens the more time people with time on their hands and nothing to talk about fill up a new forum with total tosh. IMHO.

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Thanks for tracking this - it is kind of interesting.

 

Personally I hope they put off a dedicated Bulge folder for as long as possible and then a week longer.  :)  The earlier the forum opens the more time people with time on their hands and nothing to talk about fill up a new forum with total tosh. IMHO.

+1. I can do without the extra speculation.

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kohlenklau,

 

Love the way you express yourself! "Modwarians," a group not previously identified by the wargamer ethnologists. Genius neologism. As for your ongoing analyses. CMSF, had it not been released in the rather dire state it was, would've done much better than it has. After all, it was the first. CMSF has/had, I suspect, nothing like the overall level of interest CMBN commanded. But CMSF was, until recently, the only US/NATO modern game there was. And it's got lots of goodies these days. I don't know much about it, but I think it's grown on the Forumites, with many taking it up (once it got sorted out) who thought they'd never play it.

 

Scads of gamers are WW II buffs, and most of the game buyers are US centric and ETO focused, not to mention Panzer besotted, so it's no surprise CMBN has flourished, especially with CW, MG and now the Vehicle Pack. MTO is far less well known, so was guaranteed, based on known wargamer preferences, to play second fiddle to CMBN in the West. To my knowledge, the second most popular combat area for US gamers is the Eastern Front. Consequently, I'd expect it to go: CMBN, CMRT, CMFI. But now the drumbeat for Bulge is thundering, and I expect the rank ordering will quickly be, once it's out: CMBN, CM Bulge, CMRT and CMFI. Had CMRT been set at Kursk or earlier, it'd certainly be showing better metrics, for most gamers never heard of Op Bagration. Again, if you want to play CMx2, it's CMRT or nothing for now. CMRT has also, I'm sure, benefited from attention and sales via our colleagues who live in the region. CM:Battle of Berlin should stomp CMRT, with lots of Forum activity from East and West, helped by movies such as "Downfall" and a slew of books.

 

I think what's happening with CMBS reflects a bunch of things: first modern CM in practically a decade; very high media and public interest in Ukraine situation; subject area of great interest to non US players in region and from a variety of national and other perspectives, and pretty much everything short of laser-armed sharks when it comes to toys and war piggery!  Further, I think a lot of FPS franchises have helped grease the skids for CMBS with all their modern releases. My best guess for where the CMBS will fall relative to the four WW II titles is: CMBN, CM Bulge, CMBS, CMRT and CMFI. A major variable here has to do with which game gets what and when, developments slips, mod involvement. CMBN has the considerable advantage of having two Modules and a Vehicle Pack. CMFI has a Module, and neither CMRT nor CMBS yet has a Module. Additionally, there is the vexed matter of whether a new purchaser will need to buy an Upgrade immediately in order to be current. 

 

Something else I've noticed has become more and more evident--plummeting duration of "it girl" status for new releases. I got into CMBN, which already by then had CW, shortly after CMFI came out. But it seemed to me that CMFI had very little time in which to get established before CMRT took over, and very little time after that before CMBS in turn displaced it. And now, with CMBS barely released, CM Bulge has practically stolen the show. The situation is even worse with Modules, going back to GL, at least. Bil and c3k did their fabulous Beta AAR for GL, yet practically as soon as GL got going, here comes MG, which got obliterated by the tsunami of CMRT. Seems to me we're both blessed and accursed. We're blessed in that BFC keeps turning out CM wonders, but the more CM games titles are out there, the more fractionated the overall CM community becomes and the shorter the effective (in terms of "hotness") life of a particular product becomes. This isn't to say people won't be playing and talking about an earlier game for years, but that what is currently of mass interest to the CM community has increasingly less and less time to make a splash before being swept aside. It's kind of like the observation that dozens of classic TV shows would never have made it under the operating conditions and limited amount of time the network execs of today give a show in which to become viable and maybe even truly succeed. 

 

In other news, I left you some goodies in the Op Herkules and vehicle painting threads.

 

Regards,

 

John Kettler 

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almost 3 months, howz it lookin'?

 

Forum-threads-replies

CMBS-443-11677 after 1 month became 860-19103 after 2 months hit 990-22093 after 3 months 1100-24489 

CMRT-1734-32518 , 1786-33281, 1824-33815,   1861-34412  (CMRT closing up on the CMFI forum post count!)

CMFI-2032-33767, 2049-34027, 2066-34249,  2083-34452

CMBN-11027-165,643,   11111-166973,  11175-168028,    11247-169462

 

:D

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kolenklau,

 

Good stuff, but my brain overloads with all the numbers? Could we please have some sort of graph, histogram, pie chart or whatever else will visually tell the tale? I believe it would help tell your story better to everyone, and I'd certainly appreciate it. My what seems to be one brain cell gets tired easily, so I try not to overload it!

 

Regards,

 

John Kettler

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