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Backstory events sliding toward Nonfiction

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Anyway, none of it will happen. Unless the West miscalculates badly. A conventional war between Russia and NATO is impossible. It's either economic warfare or proxy warfare or Nuclear annihilation for all involved. War between nuclear powers is a fallacy

 

Except for India and Pakistan, who have fought a war since both powers have openly had nuclear weapons.

 

A war between Russia and NATO that stayed within Ukrainian territory and didn't involve ground forces entering NATO countries or Russia could possibly stay conventional without too much implausibility.

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India and Pakistan are a different thing. They havent really fought (skirmishes yes, but nothing too existential and national dignity threatening) since the Cold war and back when they last fought for real, you had the Soviet Union and the US locked into a cold war, so this was a fail safe. They intervened fast. They also had a very limited inventory and with uncertain vectors. Nuclear weapons in themselves are not that dangerous. You have to put the bomb on the target. Vectors are more important. The easiest and more sure the way of delivering ordnance on a target is, the more likely it will be used. You won't see a major war between them now that they have launch on warning missiles and a few hundred warheads on each side. This is a very different thing. 

 

Ukraine is a vital national interest of Russia, it is not for the US. They will use it as they see fit to annoy and weaken Russia but nothing more. They will discard it when they see it's no more useful or if it becomes a liability for them. Europe is already doing so despite US threats. 

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Face with the choice of becoming again a submissive colony of the West ... 

 

The nineties, for them that's submission. Maybe not for you. They look at this decade with disdain. Read Putin's speeches, especially the more recent ones. Its not that I love the guy, but I'm a realist. You must take into account perceptions of other people in international politics or else a lot of people will end up dead. They want to be treated as equals but US ambassador at the UN Samantha Powers told them: "you guys lost the cold war, why dont you just accept it". The mask fell. They are now certain that the West will never treat Russia with the respect it deserves (in their eyes) so they are acting accordingly. They were naive to think otherwise for so long but that's another discussion ;) You can impose your will on small countries, but you can try to impose your will on countries like Russia at everyone's risk. You must take their view into account and try to achieve balance. Yes, the world is an unjust place. 

Edited by antaress73

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The nineties, for them that's submission. Maybe not for you. They look at this decade with disdain. Read Putin's speeches, especially the more recent ones. Its not that I love the guy, but I'm a realist. You must take into account perceptions of other people in international politics or else a lot of people will end up dead. They want to be treated as equals but US ambassador at the UN Samantha Powers told them: "you guys lost the cold war, why dont you just accept it". The mask fell. They are now certain that the West will never treat Russia with the respect it deserves (in their eyes) so they are acting accordingly. They were naive to think otherwise for so long but that's another discussion ;) You can impose your will on small countries, but you can try to impose your will on countries like Russia at everyone's risk. You must take their view into account and try to achieve balance. Yes, the world is an unjust place. 

 

I think this war is still unlikely to take place (rather like the Cold War was never likely to turn hot in Central Europe) However, it would be a mistake to rule out a hot war between NATO and Russia in Ukraine. Miscalculation and misunderstanding tend to be the most likely causes of war and there is plenty of scope for that in the Ukraine situation even if what both sides intend is a limited, proxy war. Should the West appear weak the risk is Putiin thinks he can get away with something he should not actually attempt resulting in a direct and very hot war.

 

If such a conflict happens the risk that nuclear weapons will be used is certainly there. However, both sides are well aware of what the consequences would be and that should reduce the chances of a nuclear exchange. Although of course a conflict may end that way, again through accident and miscalculation

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I am not going to let this thread get derailed.  I am forbidding any further response to Skinfaxi's post or I will give them a temporary ban, not lock the thread up. Keep this to discussion specifically about the backstory and how it relates directly to the current ongoing war.

Skinfaxi, you are warned. Do not continue to make political statements in any thread that is not explicitly designed for such a discussion. I will ban you if you do not comply.

As a general point of fact, anybody with 1/10th of a brain can see that the backstory for Black Sea does not blame everything on Russia alone. It is a series of bad decisions and miscalculations by the three sides involved... Russia, Ukraine, and EU/US. In our story each makes selfish decisions which are reacted to with more selfish decisions from the others. This pushes events along to full scale war instead of a diplomatic solution. We did this deliberately. Now, if someone doesn't have 1/10th of a brain, then they might see us as blaming Russia for everything.

Steve

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As a side to Shasko's post, are what is being described as 'UnCon' really 'UnCon' ? I was under the impression this term meant ununiformed fighters fighting a guerrilla/insurgency campaign.  The forces being described are uniformed militia fighting a fairly conventional war with lines and territory being taken and lost.  In Shock Force there was a difference between Syrian Militia and UnCon.  But as is true this game is not modeled after the real situation.

I think it depends on what point in the conflict you are speaking of. The earlier part, say April and May, the forces were a mix of local day laborers with sharp sticks (an exaggeration :)) and small groups of professional soldiers (in particular the ones in Slavyansk and Horlivka). The latter, AT A MINIMUM, contained Girkin's group that participated in the Crimean invasion. Many of his group were veterans from actions against Georgia, Chechnya, Moldova, and Croatia/Bosnia. Similarly, there were a couple of Cossack groups active at the very beginning that also had previous similar experiences. There are, of course, accusations that Russian military special forces were also involved as they were in Crimea, but I think there is definite room to argue against this position.

So in the early stages there were a large number of what CMSF called "Uncons" and a very small number of what it called "Militia". The middle and current stage I would say the non military units are now all "Militia". The degree of competency of both groups obviously ranges from extremely poor to quite good.

And yes, we do intend on releasing a Module that contains both Uncons and Militia.

Steve

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Hehehe dont worry Steve :) I was just trying to reassure people that were unconfortable to play the game that its very unlikely. Enjoy the game. It is amazingly good and I'm always fighting the urge to go play it instead of assuming my different ahm.. responsibilities LOL 

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By the way, it's worth mentioning...

 

There's a much more detailed version of the storyline I wrote in development. 17 pages or so instead of 3. Operational instead of strategic level detail. It was meant for inspiration for campaign and scenario designers, as a framework for scenario designers to create scenarios within. After the game launch craziness subsides, I'll tidy it up a bit and put it on the Repository so that scenario designers can use it as a base for making more campaigns and scenario if they want to stay within the "official story" (not that I actually care if people stay within the official story, hah!).

 

Chris

I can't wait to see the detailed storyline. And of course here is othing t stp anye wanting to genrerate alternative "hisories" uch as the Belorussian and BalticStates variants, a NATO "March on Moscow" or, for tht matter, a Russian advance into Poland an Romania. Much of this could well result in a longer warr. Which of courxsse creates a good excuse to legthen the period covered by the game into the winter and perhaps even into 2018.And perhaps an "earl start" to hostilities sometime during he winter of 2016 - 17 Allowing us to fight a winter war. And of course allowing for the possibilit of the war breaking out in winter or simulatng earlier border clashes and current events,

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The other thing that is just floating out there is the Baltic States. Their independence drives the Russians nuts, and they have black letter Article 5 treaty protection.  Nothing could possibly go wrong......

Edited by dan/california

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The other thing that is just floating out there is the Baltic States. Their independence drives the Russians nuts, and they have black letter Article 5 treaty protection. Nothing could possibly go wrong......

The letter that does not legally bind anyone to do anything in specific.

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The other thing that is just floating out there is the Baltic States. Their independence drives the Russians nuts, and they have black letter Article 5 treaty protection.  Nothing could possibly go wrong......

Im Russian and live near the Baltic States, I am not driven nuts by this nor is anybody I know. I think this tends to be the Baltic perception more than reality.

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I think it depends on what point in the conflict you are speaking of. The earlier part, say April and May, the forces were a mix of local day laborers with sharp sticks (an exaggeration :)) and small groups of professional soldiers (in particular the ones in Slavyansk and Horlivka). The latter, AT A MINIMUM, contained Girkin's group that participated in the Crimean invasion. Many of his group were veterans from actions against Georgia, Chechnya, Moldova, and Croatia/Bosnia. Similarly, there were a couple of Cossack groups active at the very beginning that also had previous similar experiences. There are, of course, accusations that Russian military special forces were also involved as they were in Crimea, but I think there is definite room to argue against this position.So in the early stages there were a large number of what CMSF called "Uncons" and a very small number of what it called "Militia". The middle and current stage I would say the non military units are now all "Militia". The degree of competency of both groups obviously ranges from extremely poor to quite good.And yes, we do intend on releasing a Module that contains both Uncons and Militia.Steve

I missed this post earlier, seems to me to be a quite fair assessment.

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The letter that does not legally bind anyone to do anything in specific.

 

NATO would cease to exist if it did not support a member state that justly invoked Article 5. There may come a day when that would happen, but it isn't now. Some individual countries would provide other support, even if not very much, besides direct military action. But action would be taken.

 

Im Russian and live near the Baltic States, I am not driven nuts by this nor is anybody I know. I think this tends to be the Baltic perception more than reality.

There is a difference between Russia and Russians. I think most Russians are like everybody else... no problem with people minding their own business. But this is not the same thing as Russia, which is the state government. I do not want to sidetrack this conversation, but there is evidence to suggest that Russia (as a state) would like to once again have possession of the Baltic countries as it once did. But I don't think Russia is stupid enough to try (see above comment).

Steve

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Well, looking at the history of said Baltic states, you can understand some degree of mistrust (it is at least as valid as say, residual Russian fears of the West, historical bad acts and all).

Quite. And Russia's most recent behavior isn't very comforting. Unless you call nuclear bombers flying around your country as an act of kindness.

Steve

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Quite. And Russia's most recent behavior isn't very comforting. Unless you call nuclear bombers flying around your country as an act of kindness.

 

UNGRATEFUL LATVIA SWINE DO NOT LIKE COMRADE BEAR AIRSHOW.  GREAT DISGRACE.  INVADE TO TEACH LESSON.  

 

Estonia. we need to attack Latvia.  Our troops just need to pass through.  Please do not concern.  

 

Please note this was done tongue firmly lodged in cheek.

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There is a difference between the USA and Amerikans. I think most Amerikans are like everybody else... no problem with people minding their own business. But this is not the same thing as the USA, which is the state government. I do not want to sidetrack this conversation, but there is evidence to suggest that the USA (as a state) would like to once again have possession of Russia and it's resources as it once did under Yeltsin. I think USA is stupid enough to try.

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There is a difference between the USA and Amerikans. I think most Amerikans are like everybody else... no problem with people minding their own business. But this is not the same thing as the USA, which is the state government. I do not want to sidetrack this conversation, but there is evidence to suggest that the USA (as a state) would like to once again have possession of Russia and it's resources as it once did under Yeltsin. I think USA is stupid enough to try.

 

Being privy to Warplan Really Stupid Romero Alpha, the actual plan is to enslave Russians to serve as shock troops for the real target of US aggression:

 

Australia.  Anyone who has played Risk knows for sure that Australia is the linchpin to World Domination.  Millions of Russians will pave the way through Indonesia with their blood and bodies, having been arranged into giant Roman numerals.  Only once the last half of Australia has fallen will American domination over all things be complete.

 

On topic:

 

I'm almost uncomfortable with Black Sea's setting.  Syria turned into something, but when I was playing through and for most of the game's life it was an interesting super hypothetical scenario that was reasonable, vs an extension of an actual fight.  The Black Sea setting certainly did not stop me from buying the game, enjoying it and playing it lots.  It's just I could have done without the real life interjects that crop up around these parts.  

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I'm almost uncomfortable with Black Sea's setting.  Syria turned into something, but when I was playing through and for most of the game's life it was an interesting super hypothetical scenario that was reasonable, vs an extension of an actual fight.  The Black Sea setting certainly did not stop me from buying the game, enjoying it and playing it lots.  It's just I could have done without the real life interjects that crop up around these parts.

I mostly use CMSF for mout combat stuff for the insurgency.

I suspect I will end up mostly doing my own hypothetical stuff with CMBS unrelated to events in Ukraine.

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Skinfaxi what do you expect to happen if you post things like that? Well, anyways, goodbye, i think Steve will ban you.

And why should he do that? If what he says is according to the rules, then it must be according to the rules if I say the same, too. Otherwise it would be double standards.

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I agree that recent real-life events have diverged from the storyline, however, recent events are proceeding at an accelerated pace.  It seems to me that the storyline and the real world are on a converging path, if not already there.

 

The recent events have caused us to jump ahead in the storyline close to this point:

 

"In response to the observed Russian mobilizations, Ukraine begins to mobilize low-readiness units and call up reservists. An expeditionary NATO force comprised of American and European military units is moved to eastern Poland, adjacent to the Ukrainian border. An American mechanized unit on rotational training in Germany joins them. The United States begins to prepare logistically by moving more prepositioned supplies and equipment to Germany, while transportation plans for stateside units to be moved overseas are put in motion." 

Pg. 5 CM:BS Manual.

 

Isn't Ukraine currently calling up new units?  The U.S. has plans to have "Trainers" in Ukraine near Poland this Spring, and the U.S. 2nd Cavalry was in Latvia last month for a Military Exercise. They brought a number of Stryker vehicles and Gen. Hodges said that over 200 tanks and IFV's will stay deployed somewhere in Eastern Europe.  The U.S. is openly discussing supplying lethal aid to Ukraine now as well.  Also, there are reports that Russia is increasing troops and supplies.

 

There are factions in and around the U.S. Government that love war, and profit tremendously from our military involvement around the Globe.  As we are seeing just this week; they are ramping up the involvement in Ukraine.  So, it looks to me like we are headed for the very real and dangerous potential for a hot war as depicted in CM:BS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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