Jump to content
H1nd

Strategic and tactical realities in CMBS

Recommended Posts

Well I haven't seen those aid efforts, especially not on the scale that Ukraine would need to rebuild the economy.

P.s. I don't read everything in this thread anymore, so if you wish me to reply to something specific please message me about that directly.

No that was a suggestion as to a possible action. I did not say it was something they actually are doing yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No that was a suggestion as to a possible action. I did not say it was something they actually are doing yet.

Is there a plan to provide such aid? You would also need to refinance the existing loans.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there a plan to provide such aid? You would also need to refinance the existing loans.

US will hardly invest enough money into Ukraine to make it a prosperous country, but to let it survive, not to get economics disaster (what can lead to an uncontrolled goverment change) - sure, why not? US can give it enough money for it. It's not a business loan for US it's their geopolitical expenses.

Edited by Rusknight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But that reinforces my point - the guy who made those claims was totally ridiculed - his credibility is as low as it can go

Yep, that is the main point of having multiple media sources (and why many are concerned about the trend of media consolidation but that is a concern for another thread). One media outlet cannot get away with putting out lies or propaganda or even making a mistake without one of the other guys calling them on it. And yes sometimes there is a near total failure (for example the reports on weapons of mass destruction in Iraq) but even then the truth comes out in the end. So, you can trust, in a big picture sense, that the free western media basic will eventually sort out the basic facts and the discussion can then happen about what the right course of action should be or who is to blame for where we are at. I know you guys like to pull at any little thread that looks out of place but the thing is there will always be something that is reported incorrectly or some twist of the story that is not right. But my point is the big picture will be clear. That is how the free media works - checks and balances.

The trouble with some of the discussion going on here is that all the energy is being spent on asserting or denying some of those basic facts. We should be discussing who should be punished and who should do what to allow everyone to move forward but instead we are still discussing the basic facts. In my opinion that is all part of the plan. If Putin's regime can keep his citizens engaged in an argument about what is true and what is false rather than what he is doing right or wrong he wins. There is plenty of room to disagree and discuss things even when the facts are straight but without that it is not a discussion or a debate it is just a waste of time. Again that waste of time is all part of the plan. IMHO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there a plan to provide such aid? You would also need to refinance the existing loans.

 

no plan at this time, none that I have read anyway.

 

The only solid aid that I know of is a $17 billion loan from the IMF, at least $3 Billion of which has been disbursed, although as I understand it the IMF and the Ukrainian govt. are still arguing about what reforms they have to put through before they get all the money.

 

The EU had pledged up to $15 billions, but I dont think any or a substantial number has been paid. Their aid also hinges on political and economic reforms.

 

The U.S. has pledged various amounts, close to $500 million at last count, as I recall, although I think only a fraction has been sent and a lot of that is in military hardware, mostly non-lethal, not hard cash. The U.S. also garanteed a $1 billion loan to Ukraine.

 

Reading between the lines and not based on any hard facts, I get the impression the US and the EU are having a behind the scenes arguments has to who should be providing the aid. So far, everyone seems happy to leave it as a IMF problem.

Edited by Sgt Joch

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just as an example, this guy obviously carries a little more clout than I do. It is not an official govt position by any means, but this guy does have some influence and is making the argument to back Ukraine financially. Whether it will actually translate to action, who knows. Given current suspicions on Russian escalation though I would not be surprised. The west is not going to allow Russia to win this by default. It would send absolutely the wrong message to our friends and allies.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/08/news/soros-ukraine-europe-50-billion/index.html

Edited by sburke

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem as always is money.

 

Ukraine has a lot of problems even without the war, inefficient economy and government, massive corruption. Yes, they have made some small steps, but Greece looks like Switzerland when compared to Ukraine . :)

 

on top of that you have the war and the billions it will cost to rebuild  East Ukraine.

 

Giving them money without asking for reforms is just throwing good money down the drain and where will that money come from? German taxpayers have no interest in bailing out Greece, even less in bailing out Ukraine when they know a good chunk will wind up in the pockets of corrupt politicians.

 

EU has no interest in bailing out Ukraine alone. The US seems to view this as essentially a European problem.

 

Now if the U.S. was to say, we will give Ukraine $25-50 billion no questions asked, they might be able to get an equivalent commitment from the EU, but what are the chances of that?

 

We also have to remember that Russia has been, in essence, subsidizing Ukraine for 20 years with cheap natural gas and favorable trade terms. Once that is gone, someone will have to make up the difference.

 

No matter how you look at it, the only way this has a happy ending is if BOTH the EU and Russia help Ukraine and that will obviously only happen if both sides get something out of the deal.

 

p.s. - I'm sure Steve will pop in soon mumbling something about "appeasement". ;)

Edited by Sgt Joch

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As the OP I would ask Steve to lock this thread since it has derailed once again.

 

All tho it has been a nice distraction from the wait of the game to release and I thank every one for participating, I am quite certain that in the future i will try to narrow down these threads as much as possible right from the start. I guess the "realities" part in the topic was slightly misunderstood since I originally intended this thread to me about aspects of modern super mobile warfare vs underdog defender but instead we got derailed into "what is reality in "donbass/ukraine atm?". We could probably use a tactics and strategies section to the forums where we could pile up individual case studies similar to the one I presented in this thread.

 

Cheers!

-H1nd

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It may be just my impression but I get the sense that EU is setting a harsher and harsher line against Russia with time due to the Minsk protocols not being respected by Russia. Leads me to think that they'll continue to ramp up their support to Ukraine the more Russia plays games.

 

Also, thanks for your thorough answer to my request for a prediction Steve!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BFC might as well let it run until the game comes out.  When we can have a raging fight over the performance of the BMP-3 30mm the politics will be easier to clean up.  Ukraine is on the front page of the NYT.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As the OP I would ask Steve to lock this thread since it has derailed once again.

 

All tho it has been a nice distraction from the wait of the game to release and I thank every one for participating, I am quite certain that in the future i will try to narrow down these threads as much as possible right from the start. I guess the "realities" part in the topic was slightly misunderstood since I originally intended this thread to me about aspects of modern super mobile warfare vs underdog defender but instead we got derailed into "what is reality in "donbass/ukraine atm?". We could probably use a tactics and strategies section to the forums where we could pile up individual case studies similar to the one I presented in this thread.

 

Cheers!

-H1nd

 

 

You should probably assume that your thread will wander into off topic conversation within 5-10 pages of it starting. This is now at 37 pages. Expecting the same topic to be stuck to is maybe a little much.

 

Anyway, folks are having an interesting discussion. I'm not sure why it should be stopeed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You should probably assume that your thread will wander into off topic conversation within 5-10 pages of it starting. This is now at 37 pages. Expecting the same topic to be stuck to is maybe a little much.

 

Anyway, folks are having an interesting discussion. I'm not sure why it should be stopeed.

 

And the past 20 pages have been all the same back and forth that get's us nowhere. I enjoyed following the off topic discussion as much as anyone but I sense that the semi friendly and decent atmosphere of the discussion is now trending towards more hostile and unfriendly direction. If BF wants to keep it going then by all means but in my opinion this serves no purpose any longer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the past 20 pages have been all the same back and forth that get's us nowhere. I enjoyed following the off topic discussion as much as anyone but I sense that the semi friendly and decent atmosphere of the discussion is now trending towards more hostile and unfriendly direction. If BF wants to keep it going then by all means but in my opinion this serves no purpose any longer.

 

Lots of really interesting sources being posted though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Steve, I hoped to get an answer from a native american on why US goverment keeps so many citizens in prisons? I am just puzzled with this fact. Is it how true democracy functions? You ignored this question so you don't know the answer (it's ok you may not know) or US goverment will prosecute you if you tell me the truth?

Oh, I just missed it. The answer is very, very obvious to Americans. And it is hotly debated a lot. Unlike in Russia, we don't have to fear opposing the government in public. If they don't like what we have to say, they just ignore us.

America has a horrible problem of treating symptoms and not problems. This is a systemic problem in the American concept of "free enterprise". I can cite many examples of American citizens, or government on their behalf, paying $10 to fix a $1 problem. A good example is with our local roads in my town. We asked people to pay roughly $150 more per year in taxes to fix the conditions of the roads. They said no because they didn't want a tax increase. Yet the state wide average is something like $500 per year in car repairs due to bad roads. Which means the average person is paying $350 more out of pocket per year to have a less comfortable ride and the hassles of unnecessary repairs. This makes absolutely no financial sense, but Americans are inherently against taxes and therefore are (stupidly) willing to spend more to save less.

With the prisons it is the same thing. It is far more expensive to lock up someone for using heroin than it is to get him drug rehabilitation or some form of state provided work. Worse, the statistics show that when the heroin user is released he is likely to offend again (quickly) and probably with more violence than the last time. When taxpayers are asked to spend a fraction of the money to prevent such things from happening they say no and wind up spending a lot more after.

So the answer to your question is that we have so many people in American prisons because we're stupidly short sighted. Other nations have less prisoners because either they aren't as short sighted or because they simply do not arrest people for the same sorts of criminal behavior. And it's not like Russia (or any other country) doesn't have problems with similar issues. For example, drug addiction:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/oppression-wont-cure-russias-drug-addiction/509379.html

 

Steve, you pile up state and corporate numbers together, without knowing about corporate reserves for example.

True, but based on what I've seen those corporations do not have sufficient reserves to cover debt and have enough left over for operations. At lest not for very long.

 

Morever you pile up the costs in rubles and in the USDs together, which again is faulty.

Not faulty when it comes to assessing interaction with foreign markets. I used USD equivalents just like everybody else. The only exception was domestic spending deficit. I explained that because there is no surplus in the domestic economy, therefore the debt will have to come from somewhere. If it comes from domestic sources then there is less available for other domestic needs, which once again pushes things into foreign markets and non-Ruble values.

 

However I think that I won't reply into this thread anymore, as it went down the political OT route, the one you have said it won't go. If you wish to continue this discussion then please split this OT stuff into a new thread or do so in private.

P.s. actually what you could do is to brand this thread as political OT, then it would make sense.

 

All threads are OT and all threads will go down this route. Either I shut them all down for good and stay on it, or I allow them to proliferate. The other option, of course, is to keep it in one place. For now I'm content to do that.

Adding fuel to the fire -

 

Apparently U.S. forces will be "vacationing" in Ukraine this Spring:

As been said, it's old news. There were NATO forces training in Ukraine already in 2014 since this mess started. It's fairly routine, though of course it has new meaning these days since whatever NATO teaches Ukrainian forces will be utilized in defense of their country within a short period of time.

Steve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can anyone tell me the likelihood of a potential artillery provocateur from the russians in this case? I find it unlikely but there might have been real life cases in other events in history, I dunno.

It is a little suspicious that right after Russian backed forces were definitively blamed for hitting a bus full of civilians (not deliberate, I am sure) that there is a similar bus hit only a few days later. But there has been so many shellings of civilian areas by both sides, it is possible that it was purely coincidental.

Separatists have been well documented to have:

1. Fired from civilian areas to use civilians as a "Human Shield"

2. Fire on each other when they get into disputes (I think we'll see less of this thanks to Spetsnaz actions).

3. Hit things they likely weren't trying to hit (i.e. bad gunnery, faulty ammunition, etc).

4. Fire upon Russian territory (long ago, nothing since August at least)

5. Fire upon Russian Federation forces (long ago, nothing recently I know of)

In all cases Russian and separatist media blamed Ukraine for every single one of these instances. Despite geolocated photos, separatists bragging on social media, video, etc.

The purpose of #4 and #5, incidentally, was to drag Russia into a full on invasion. In one incident Russia sent an investigation team to try and get to the bottom of a mortar barrage of its forces and was itself taken under fire. At least one Russian officer was killed. I know, I know, I know... independent verification? No, of course not. Who is going to verify it when independent media isn't allowed to do it's job? Certainly Putin or Zakharchenko aren't going to mention this.

 

Oh and the servicemen here have their faces censored at 1:15 for some reason...

 

I'm glad the DPR/LPR are so thorough in documenting their warcrimes. Not that it matters since their supporters will find an excuse.

BTW, it appears the primary reason why more Russian military prisoners haven't been shown is an arrangement was made between Ukraine and Russia after the 10 "lost" soldiers were paraded in front of the cameras in August. The arrangement is that Russia will exchange Ukrainian prisoners for Russian ones only if Ukraine keeps prisoner information more-or-less secret. Doubt it if you will, but it makes a lot of sense for both countries to agree to such an arrangement. Ukraine wants its soldiers back and everybody who matters knows Russian forces are operating in Ukraine, so parading them in front of the cameras gives no benefit:

http://m.censor.net.ua/news/321016/stets_video_s_plennymi_russkimi_po_kakimto_vajnym_prichinam_ne_dayut_snimat_nashi_spetsslujby

Steve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...

As been said, it's old news. There were NATO forces training in Ukraine already in 2014 since this mess started. It's fairly routine, though of course it has new meaning these days since whatever NATO teaches Ukrainian forces will be utilized in defense of their country within a short period of time.

Steve

 

And if a few Javelins and TOW's should disappear from NATO training stocks, no one would be able to prove a thing since flat denial appears to be such a powerful tool...

I'm sure there are a few Baltic NATO members who wouldn't look too hard if such a thing should happen...

 

Unfortunately, here in the "west", we tend not to let vacationing soldiers take their kit with them on holiday...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it really that difficult to determine the direction from which shells/rockets came given dispersion etc?  Or do those variables change way too much depending on system and training + info given for targets?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Is it really that difficult to determine the direction from which shells/rockets came given dispersion etc?  Or do those variables change way too much depending on system and training + info given for targets?

It's really pretty easy.  Like not I could walk out and do it myself right now, but the blast patterns are pretty constant. The the shell is coming at an angle, so the distribution of fragments and impact damage of even an airburst shell is going to vary based on the approach angle.  From that it's pretty easy to just math your way through it to a loose range and firing location. 

 

We used to it in Iraq fairly often to verify points of origin* if the counter-battery radar had issues with it (we were in an urban area, there was a lot of clutter and interrupted LOS that might make a track less accurate).

 

*immature random fact: Point Of Origin got abbreviated to "poo" quite a lot, which lead to much shenanigans when asked if someone out on patrol had found the poo in sector yet.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Being an artillery officer (now nearly 20 years retired), I received some training in shell crater analysis.

 

Firstly, it isn't particularly precise.  You can generally get caliber of the weapon, bearing/azimuth of the trajectory, and the sometimes the angle when the shell struck the ground.  but unless you known something about what bag charge the round was fired at, you are not going to get any precision on location other than somewhere along the bearing and maybe within a 500 metres plus or minus.  Fragments of the shell can tell caliber and perhaps manufacturer but only if you can recover enough fragments for that analysis.

 

The real problem is we are not talking clean fixed lines of contact between forces.  If the shell analysis indicated the rounds came from very near a town and that town is being contested, you can't tell which side fired it.  That is generally the situation on the ground in the Donbass - forces in close proximity and roving around.  Makes shell crater analysis giving you details only in generalities that probably don't offer much useful intel.

Edited by BlackMoria

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The whole circumstances of the civilian casualties at the bus are tragic, but given the intensity of the shelling by both sides and the propensity (well documented by OSCE) of separatists firing from residential areas, this is bound to happen. The only surprising thing is it hasn't happened more.

The answer is for Russia to close the border to all military arms and force everyone to the negotiating table. If Russia were to actually do this in short order you'd likely see sanctions lifted and Ukraine would also have to comply to insure continued aid from the West. It really is in Putin's hands and he could close that border in an hour if he so desired.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

... It really is in Putin's hands and he could close that border in an hour if he so desired.

 

This really is the ultimate simple logic counterpoint to Russia's denials of military aid to the separatists. If Russia really wasn't aiding them then

a) Russia has the most porous border on the planet

b )  Armed bands can rove around on Russian territory at will, training and buying weapons and crossing back into Ukraine at any time.

c) The Russian army / border guards are powerless to prevent this. ( even while on manoeuvers on that very border ! )

 

Hands up anyone who thinks the above is true.

Anyone ?

Edited by Baneman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it really that difficult to determine the direction from which shells/rockets came given dispersion etc?  Or do those variables change way too much depending on system and training + info given for targets?

The others answered this very well, but they forgot to mention that there is other evidence to examine. For example, the bus slaughter at the Ukrainian checkpoint is on video. The separatists bragged on social media right after they conducted the attack, saying they wiped it out. Then they backtracked after it was shown they hit the bus. This behavior has happened before, including MH-17. Afterwards they denny, denny, denny as if nobody saved a copy of what they wrote or there isn't a website where it is still posted.

In other instances the separatists show themselves firing artillery from residential areas. They also have occasionally taken video that can be geolocated. Months ago there was a separatist mortar round that killed some civilians and a video clearly showed how many charges went into the mortar, the angle the mortar was at, and the direction. Someone did the math and showed that, within a decent probability of error, that that mortar most likely hit the civilians.

But this is stupid to argue over. Both sides are firing artillery at each other. Both sides have forces in residential or near residential areas. It is inevitable that civilians who have not evacuated the combat zone are going to get hit. So there is no point for either side to denny it.

 

 

This really is the ultimate simple logic counterpoint to Russia's denials of military aid to the separatists. If Russia really wasn't aiding them then

a) Russia has the most porous border on the planet

b )  Armed bands can rove around on Russian territory at will, training and buying weapons and crossing back into Ukraine at any time.

c) The Russian army / border guards are powerless to prevent this. ( even while on manoeuvers on that very border ! )

 

Hands up anyone who thinks the above is true.

Anyone ?

Nope! Which is why every "outrage" that Russian leaders and media make is obviously not sincere. If Russia cared about the people of Donbas and Ukraine, they wouldn't be waging war there.

Let us not forget that the OSCE, which Russia is a member of, has offered to monitor the border for Russia since Russia seems incapable of doing so. Russia was eventually forced into a limited, almost laughable, amount of monitoring. Even despite that, the OSCE has regularly reported the flow of men over the border into Ukraine and, occasionally, military equipment too. But since Russia knows exactly where each and ever one of these OSCE monitors is, they simply don't cross within their view. Doesn't fool anybody but a fool.

BTW, Ukrainian hackers got into the Rostov police archives and it confirmed that Russia has stepped up control of the border a few months ago. But guess what? It was to stop weapons from coming OUT of Ukraine, not stopping them from going into Ukraine.

steve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't want to be offensive but you have offended me, you have no right to talk about my country you have no clue about my people nor have you ever been to my country and you are talking, If you really do care about Ukraine so much COME to Donetsk Peoples Republic and see for yourself. What you wrote passed the line and I will not just read it and say "let me just ignore" I didn't serve my country so that you can disrespect my president and my country. Russia and Ukraine are brothers, I would die for Ukraine just like I would for Russia, BUT what I will not die for is those fascists which are running Ukraine and killing and shelling people WHY? you ask? Oh sorry, sure you can tell whats going on from Ukraine's post and "independent" news sources, And act as if you know it perfectly... I know very well about politics countries can do but going as far as to saying Russia is responsible for everything in Ukraine PASSES the limit. If anything the one responsible for Ukraine is the EU supporting the maidan protest and giving money to Ukraine to "rebuild" when Ukraine's economy is getting worse every day this war continues. I wonder where that money goes to? Oh sorry Poroshenko uses it to rebuild his country, And you guys do know that he is a billionaire right? I mean if all this is not obvious then listening to Jen Psaki is probably better. This will likely be my last post about Ukraine on here as this game is made for fun not arguing sensitive topics. And arguing about the army's in the game and comparing them is way better and would lead to less anger being thrown around. 

Topic was about strategies and arguing about if a freaking Oligarch being good and that Russia is destroying its own ethnic people is not a strategy related to this game. Unless a DLC "lets destroy Ukraine" with "Putler" being the main general you play as. 

Edited by VladimirTarasov

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I prefer independent news sources to state owned or naturally-biased ones belonging to multimedia groups.  Especially when several branches of the former tend to help each other to formulate and find out whats actually going on there in a cooperative way.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...