Strategic and tactical realities in CMBS

[wee]

Givi's situation reports from the Donetsk airport are fun to watch.

 

I start to giggle like little girl every time he or his subcommanders start to comment Ukranian forces. They are described like Germans in old Dirty Dozen movies, and in the other hand like Spielberg's title Saving private Ryan.

 

They are either stupid, poorly trained and motivated, and can't stand to the "real men of separatist forces" in a real and honest man-to-man fights. And always killed like flies in huge numbers. Only time when Ukranian forces prevail are situations where they use unfair advantage of superior firepower or manpower and "unfair" methods of fighting like snipers, boobytraps and mines.

 

Some other situations they are described as "bandits and rogues" or nearly as cannibal child eaters who get satisfied only, when they destroy civilian targets and kill, abuse and torture helpless civilian population. 

 

I'm quite sure that things ain't that simple. So naive propaganda, who the hell even believes that?  

[wee]

 

Crimea is the russian soil too. And the ppl leve here are russian citizens.

 

 

I know that russian people generally have that opinnion. I give you the right think so, while I personally disagree in many points. Like some Finns think that Carelia is a genuine part of Finland and should rightfully be returned to us. Personally I think that Carelia was lost in a war, and so be it. No hard feelings.  

 

Do you have any infromation, have RF military organized or mobilized any motorized infantry brigades or other military units from Russian citizens in Crimean peninsula region? 

Edited January 20, 2015 by wee

[wee]

I am sure Russia isn't an exception.

You forgot that there are actually three purposes for local militias:

1. Be a ready source of manpower for formal military duties (either on their own or absorbed)

2. Serve as "partisans" in the event of losing the territory

3. Reinforce the ties between the local population and the ruling regime

#3 is quite important if there is a challenge to the central authority. Nothing beats rooting out troublesome locals than other locals. Especially armed ones.

Steve

 

I agree 100%. Well placed words. 

[Battlefront.com]

Givi's situation reports from the Donetsk airport are fun to watch.

 

I start to giggle like little girl every time he or his subcommanders start to comment Ukranian forces. They are described like Germans in old Dirty Dozen movies, and in the other hand like Spielberg's title Saving private Ryan.

HAHA! I just got finished writing that to someone else. I said watching his reports makes me think I am now in 1940s. They are hilarious! And wrong, too

Best I can figure Ukraine took back quite a bit of territory around the airport. The gloves appear to have come off. There is fighting and artillery duels in many places now. And yes, there are reports of Russian forces coming over the border again. Given what is going on it doesn't surprise me.

And now I guess the talks in Kazakhstan are not going to happen. It was in doubt anyway because Merkel told Putin she wouldn't go unless he proved he was serious about ending the war. I guess Merkel got an answer at least.

Steve

[Weer]

Do you have any infromation, have RF military organized or mobilized any motorized infantry brigades or other military units from Russian citizens in Crimean peninsula region? 

 

Crimean conscripts serve in russian army just like evrybody else. We do not form brigades formed from ppl from only one region - in all or units serve coscripts from different regions. 

[ikalugin]

The trouble with arguing with you guys is the sub could have surfaced, been clearly a Kilo class, flown the Russian flag, had the crew come out on deck and sing the national anthem and there would still be with some excuse- it is faked, someone photo shopped it, the sub was a US CIA operation using an old captured/purchased sub, lord knows what, but it would be anything other than, yes Russia violated Sweden's territorial waters.  Really a USN intel run in Swedish waters?  That is the best you can come up with? If anything the declarations from Sweden are an embarrassing revelation as to how poor their ASW capabilities are.

 

Russia has clearly stated it is intent on restoring it's great power military status.  This includes an increase in aggressive overflights, armed forces demonstrations along it's borders and naval maneuvers.  Is it really that hard to think that maybe Russia is also testing the anti submarine warfare capabilities of it's neighbors?

So US does not gather intel on it's allies and neutral countries?

[ikalugin]

One of the tenants of Soviet, now Russian, propaganda is to create distrust of media in general. If you are convinced that your own government lies then you can more easily conclude that all other governments and media lie. More importantly, they lie to the same degree as Russian government and media. Further, the encouragement of "conspiracy theory" mentality undermines people's abilities to use basic logic to determine truth from fiction. Because whatever is advanced as truth could be a trick.

When hard evidence is put forward to dispute a major point of view, it is dismissed as either irrelevant, misinterpreted, falsified, or (my favorite) ignored completely. This is an intellectual defense mechanism, commonly called "denial".

I would love to think that in a few years time Russians will figure out what the truth really is and learn from it so they won't be taken advantage of again in the future. Unfortunately, based on how much love I see for the Soviet Union I don't have much hope.

Steve

  Interesting line of thought, or one could trust the sources he sees without verifying those, for example like with the AK100 usage myth. Note - AK100 is actually a 100mm ship borne cannon, Ukrainian media was showing those rifles off, while in reality they were fairly regular AK74Ms (for example in case of Strelkov), which in turn is a 1991 version of the rifle.

  Add in a preconception, exposure to conspiracy theories (such as the perceived influence of various actually fringe groups on the unfolding events), selective sourcing and you would get a well made, consistent, well descriptive, yet ultimately false version. 

 

Hence why I would prefer a rational, objective discussion, where every point is clearly referenced and sources, as memory alone could play dirty tricks on us.

Edited January 20, 2015 by ikalugin

[ikalugin]

Also, an amusing article:

http://periscope2.ru/2015/01/19/8298/

[BTR]

One of the tenants of Soviet, now Russian, propaganda is to create distrust of media in general. If you are convinced that your own government lies then you can more easily conclude that all other governments and media lie. More importantly, they lie to the same degree as Russian government and media. Further, the encouragement of "conspiracy theory" mentality undermines people's abilities to use basic logic to determine truth from fiction. Because whatever is advanced as truth could be a trick.

When hard evidence is put forward to dispute a major point of view, it is dismissed as either irrelevant, misinterpreted, falsified, or (my favorite) ignored completely. This is an intellectual defense mechanism, commonly called "denial".

I would love to think that in a few years time Russians will figure out what the truth really is and learn from it so they won't be taken advantage of again in the future. Unfortunately, based on how much love I see for the Soviet Union I don't have much hope.

Steve

Then put forward actual evidence. 

 

-4 BTG's (4200 men) in active Russian service active in Ukraine before.

-X amounts of whatever formations crossing the border in Ukraine now.

 

In the age of everyone owning a camera and almost everyone having access to internet, that shouldn't be impossible.

 

There is no doubt in my mind about consultancy and hardware support for separatists (which is sort of logical given the geopolitical objectives). Russian nationals have also been involved on their own accord. Now, that's what we can clearly see and prove. The rest is really up to faith on both sides. What I don't like is some sort of self-righteous attitude of some members here, like you know better. Facts and figures, that's all that counts.  

 

 

 

If the Ukrainian government and media has zero credibility, then Russia is even worse than zero.

 

Which is a slightly childish thing to say, I hope you don't get offended. This begs a question of why? Because Ukrainian media reports fall within a certain mentality's pre-conceived notions? Doesn't make it any more valid, and over the course of the conflict, from the beginning in last year, Ukrainian media has been caught red-handed way more on average, not only twisting the story, but outright creating them out of thin air.   

[Sgt Joch]

Then put forward actual evidence.

(.....)

In the age of everyone owning a camera and almost everyone having access to internet, that shouldn't be impossible.

the evidence is extremely easy to find, many, many, many, many videos and photos of russian troops in russian uniforms in russian eqipment in formation, regrouped by units, inside Ukraine etc., etc., etc.,....

.....there is a site called You Tube.

Edited January 20, 2015 by Sgt Joch

[Baneman]

...

There is no doubt in my mind about consultancy and hardware support for separatists (which is sort of logical given the geopolitical objectives). ...

 

Even if this is all that Russia is doing, it is still illegal and technically state-sponsored terrorism.

 

And that's ok ?

[Weer]

And that's ok ?

 

Ask Assad.

[BTR]

I can buy a Russian uniform in my hunting shop, and a lot of that actually has been done by our volunteers for the separatists in Ukraine. Doesn't qualify though. Ranks, comms, battalion tactical markings are things that are unique. More specifically comms, since those are the most hi tech and are usually state produced.

 

 

 

And that's ok ?

Everyone has to answer that question personally. For me that's ok.  

[Sgt Joch]

here's one:

 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2015 by Sgt Joch

[Baneman]

...

Everyone has to answer that question personally. For me that's ok.  

 

So if someone did it to Russia, that would also be ok ?

 

ie. some country sends ammunition, tanks, artillery and volunteers/vacationers to aid the ( for example ) Chechens in an armed uprising to gain independence from Russia, that would be ok ?

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

 

 

ie. some country sends ammunition, tanks, artillery and volunteers/vacationers to aid the ( for example ) Chechens in an armed uprising to gain independence from Russia, that would be ok ?

 

 

Excessive amounts of Deutch speaking airsofters start appearing in Kaliningrad? 

[ikalugin]

here's one:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dq1iBchjVFk

Says "Ukrainian rebels", not "Russian Armed Forces".

[ikalugin]

Excessive amounts of Deutch speaking airsofters start appearing in Kaliningrad? 

The closer example would be Russian speaking air softers from Baltic states, as Ukraine is largely Russian speaking (2 main languages - Russian and Ukrainian plus the intermediate mix of those - surzhik).

Edited January 20, 2015 by ikalugin

[Sgt Joch]

Says "Ukrainian rebels", not "Russian Armed Forces".

 

AP is just being politically correct, you have a video of a military column in Ukraine in formation, of troops all wearing regulation Russian uniforms, driving brand new Russian trucks, pulling Russian equipment, all painted in the same Russian military green, etc.

 

we have a saying, if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, then it is probably...wait for it...a duck.

[BTR]

ie. some country sends ammunition, tanks, artillery and volunteers/vacationers to aid the ( for example ) Chechens in an armed uprising to gain independence from Russia, that would be ok ?

 

Which was done at scale during the first and, more interestingly, second Chechen campaign. We've been on the receiving end for a while, and while it's unfortunate, a) every country should be prepared for this eventuality, I'd rather see proactive territorial geopolitical actions, then reactive ones. That said, the whole Russian involvement has been largely a reactive one to the Maidan.  

[BTR]

here's one:

 

 

 

 

Which looks like a supply battalion (I presume) since no actual fighting vehicles are there, which doesn't go against hardware support efforts for the local militias as I've mentioned. In effect, since border control  is non-existent, no precautions have been made.   

[Weer]

some country sends ammunition, tanks, artillery and volunteers/vacationers to aid the ( for example ) Chechens in an armed uprising to gain independence from Russia, that would be ok ?

 

They allready did it in the 90s.

[ikalugin]

AP is just being politically correct, you have a video of a military column in Ukraine in formation, of troops all wearing regulation Russian uniforms, driving brand new Russian trucks, pulling Russian equipment, all painted in the same Russian military green, etc.

 

we have a saying, if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, then it is probably...wait for it...a duck.

At the same time it is as consistent with simple delivery of vehicles, as there is no actual specific geolocation, much less independently verified geolocation. The video appears to be filmed from the car registrator.

 

Also, regulational green is the standard colour for essentially all Soviet/post Soviet vehicles.

 

Thus this video does not actually prove direct Russian participation in fighting, it only provides strong (but not legally conclusive) evidence that the rebels indeed did receive equipment from Russia.

Edited January 20, 2015 by ikalugin

[VladimirTarasov]

Whenever NATO bombed Serbia into the stone ages for Kosovo it was alright, But whenever Putin takes Crimea without one single conflict starting "Putler has arrived!!!" hahaha you guys are so double standard.

[Sgt Joch]

here is another video of Russian troops in Ukraine: