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ukraine military vs russia

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Are you sure they're not simply Yorkshire blokes on a day trip? as their telltale ferret-leggings on their trousers, arms and tucked in socks give em away ;)

Many years ago while doing an install in Düsseldorf my buddy was out and about during a street festival when he ran across this really drunken Scotsman. Trying to understand the guy was so hard he recorded and we attempted to decipher it later. We'd have sworn he'd said something about a squirrel down his pants which we interpreted in a not so literal sense. Looks like we were wrong. I just forwarded it to my buddy, mystery solved!! Thank you!

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Steve is in his element on this topic. :) He's been 'practicing up' on a similar threat over on the restricted Beta board that's now 10 months old and has passed 3,700 posts. Say what you want, you can't claim that we haven't been paying attention to events! Hopefully the finished title will reflect Steve's passion for the topic.

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Well done Steve.

Throughly researched lol

The media should be coming to you for info.

Those last pics you posted they looked pretty geared up and professional.

So with all this info you are obtaining is it influencing the game / scenario development?

Have you been surprised at any specific events or units being effective / ineffective.

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Well done Steve.

Throughly researched lol

The media should be coming to you for info.

At one point I definitely think I could have reported on events better than the average English language news source. They took a while to catch up (there was actually an internal fight at Associated Press!), but now the reporting is OK. It still is irritating to see the journalists in big news agencies continue to give Russia the benefit of the doubt about its involvement (i.e. that it is not passively sitting by), however the caveats are getting weaker as time goes on. That's good at least.

Those last pics you posted they looked pretty geared up and professional.

Yes. And with toys they should not have ;)

So with all this info you are obtaining is it influencing the game / scenario development?

Yes. Though only because we got a better look at the equipment currently being used by both sides, improving the accuracy of what extras to model on vehicles, weapons, etc.

Have you been surprised at any specific events or units being effective / ineffective.

Artillery has been a major factor in the war so far. In particular Grad fire. Early in the war neither side was very good at hitting anything but trees and poor civilians. As the war ground on the Ukrainians got very good at coordinating artillery and intel. Quality and quantity of strikes on the separatist side probably improved, but it's hard to say because much of the strikes since August have been carried out by Russian Army units more than true separatist or volunteer units.

I was really impressed with the Ukrainian counter offensive that started in July. It was amazing to see how quickly the separatists, after months of beating their chests and yelling about how great they were, fell apart. The few battle details that came out during the fighting showed that the Ukrainians quickly figured out how to inflict disproportionate casualties on their enemies. Which is why I started saying in early August that Putin would either have to give up his dream of a "frozen conflict" in Ukraine or would have to intervene militarily in a far more significant way. Which, unfortunately, he did.

I will say that I've seen more pictures and videos of body parts than I really wanted to :( Early on most of the battle footage was coming from the pro-Russian side and a bunch of that came from people that can best be described as sadists. In one case there was a real sadist (Russian national) that Ukrainian media covered because the guy was, for sure, insane. I'm pretty sure he got killed.

Steve

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Hi,

Yes.. Steve has certainly followed this in incredible detail, it is remarkable!

Masses of information for us all :).

With China and Japan squaring off too and a general unwinding up of the big blocks it’s incredibly timely to return to contemporary, conventional war.

Greatly looking forward to BS,

All the best,

Kip.

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Thank you very much for the information and all the links, Steve.

While I have not covered the conflict myself as thoroughly as you did, I do come to similar conclusions.

For me, it is really shocking how parts of German society mindlessly believe the Kreml-talk of "fighting the fascists" in Ukraine and still deny russian involvement there. Sorry if that is offtopic, but as a historian with an MA in cold war history, this just grinds my gears too much :D

Ontopic: I fear it will be a hot spring in Ukraine indeed. I am not entirely sure if Putin will be willing to commit more russian military to the conflict when the ukrainian Army will start an offensive in spring. Which I am nearly sure it will, after it has consolidated its forces over the winter.

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And it's wrong :D There is plenty of evidence of full scale Russian Army and FSB (OMON fought at the airport recently) units in the Ukraine. Russian soldiers have documented this, including describing switching uniforms, painting over tactical symbols, and other things.

That source is 99% fake. OMON - it is like SWAT. Even in Chechnya they only "cleared" liberated by army towns. FSB forces are also mainly antiterroristic. Who would waste elite specialists for mech inf job. Ukrainians often report nonsence. They reported that Russian military students fight in Ukraine.

Also, it is impossible to have 10s of thousands of organized "volunteers" rotating into Ukraine on a regular basis and then immediately conducting combat operations. The logistics of such a thing is physically impossible. Not to mention all of the weapons and vehicles that are absolutely, without a doubt, Russian Federation military.

Population of Donbas - 7 millions. + a lot of real volunteers. 30 thousands army - not too much. No need to have thousands of "volunteers".

The biggest evidence of direct Russian military intervention happened around August 15th when the Russian counter offensive started. Two major attacks happened from Russian soil into Ukrainian territory that had never been held by "separatists". Two other large groups of Russian forces crossed into Ukraine through Luhansk, with one going to Luhansk city and the second towards Torez.

Bolotov had said about counter offensive plans, concentrating vehicles and about personell, being educating in Russia a month before.

Do you believe in that "reports", that Ukrainian media do every week? "100 Russian soldiers killed", "Russian tank column destroyed", "Russian army lost 4000 men to the present moment", that story with Tochka missile and many others.

How many soldiers did U.S. lose in Iraq? Do you really believe, that Russian army would lose 10 times more in 2 weeks, fighting with weaker (or equal) than Saddam army enemy and with full support from local population?

If that was so rude and direct, where are tons of indeniable proofs? Sattelite photos of BMD columns, (if they say about regular VDV units) at the boder, inside Ukraine, attacking in line formation, retreating back. Dozens of photos with SPG batteries. They can't be hidden from sattelite, right? So, that actions were limited, I guess.

Which Russian soldiers confirm, so I don't know why there is doubt

Do you mean that poor yesterday consripts, that was captured near border? Shame on them, reading that speech wrote on a paper. They even "didn't know", that Russia is federation, repeating Ukraine propaganda cliche - "If you want federalisation in Ukraine - make federalisation in Russia! Make Tatar language a state language!"

I thought Putin also said that if Russian soldiers were in Ukraine they were on "vacation". I know he also said that the captured 76th Pskov soldiers "got lost" and accidentally crossed the border. What a laugh :D

Ukrainan soldiers got lost and crossed border many times. Hundreds of them.

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Steve,

Thanks much for that riveting Sidorenko account. With you on its credibility, despite the shocker of a LTGEN commanding a battalion equivalent. The only ways my brain can deal with such things are taken from WW II in the winter of 1941, where an entire tank division's strength might be as little as three tanks.

From a military analysis standpoint, he seems to be indicating that Russian CB capability is robust and fast, though he doesn't tell us specifically. It does, though, seem to mirror Russian Cold War doctrine, which was based on 4 minutes before NATO CB fire was received. Modern CB and CM radar can do a complete trajectory backplot almost as soon as the projectile breaks radar mask, so the number may be well below that. I suspect the mortars survived because their high trajectories made them harder to hit when opposed by standard arty, not to mention they're much smaller and more easily protected. Also of interest is the explicit mentioning of Russian UAVs for artillery targeting, as opposed to their signal lack of use in the Ossetia op. Despite being savaged by UAV-directed Georgian arty, I've repeatedly seen the Russians are still using ancient linear artillery formations. This is clearly visible in imagery released by NATO. Noteworthy, too, is that Sidorenko makes no mention whatsoever of COMJAM. Maybe the Russians feel it's unneeded and are choosing to preserve OPSEC? Also appreciated the colonel's mentioning of thermal sights for the TC and gunner!

Regards,

John Kettler

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it is really shocking how parts of German society mindlessly believe the Kreml-talk of "fighting the fascists" in Ukraine and still deny russian involvement there.

This research in this thread seems to lean to one side. What are the NATO advisers doing? washing dishes?

Oh heres some Ukrainian nationalists at play.....

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Oh heres some Ukrainian nationalists at play.....

There are a lot of them. Official volunteer batalion "Azov" has SS sign on emblem. But probably it is off-topic.

1019877873.jpg

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Oh heres some Ukrainian nationalists at play.....

There seem to be on balance groups of neo-nazis similarly proudly parading in Moscow.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/11/russian-march-draws-thousands-haters-2014114161437560714.html

Heck last night I disturbingly discoved the social secretary of a nearby local cricket club here in the UK is a proverbial goose stepping neo-nazi racist. Unfortunately ultra nationalists throughout Europe are gathering under a similar banner.

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There seem to be on balance groups of neo-nazis similarly proudly parading in Moscow.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/11/russian-march-draws-thousands-haters-2014114161437560714.html

Heck last night I disturbingly discoved the social secretary of a nearby local cricket club here in the UK is a proverbial goose stepping neo-nazi racist. Unfortunately ultra nationalists throughout Europe are gathering under a similar banner.

The difference is the Ukrainians were legitimized by the government allowing their paramilitary units to be absorbed into the ATO, however I think this was a political measure as they were poorly trained and suffered high levels of casualties thus cutting down the number of possible militant vocal trouble makers drastically when their extreme nationalist concerns are subsequently ignored by the government.

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I regularly read news, but first time read about "Kornilovsky" battallion. By the way, that 3 freaks is that battalion? :D About "Azov" battalion knows everyone.

Ah, and google picture search doesn't reffer to any Russian site. Strange, right? "Russian" battalion, and no photos on Russian sites. Link

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That source is 99% fake. OMON - it is like SWAT. Even in Chechnya they only "cleared" liberated by army towns. FSB forces are also mainly antiterroristic. Who would waste elite specialists for mech inf job. Ukrainians often report nonsence. They reported that Russian military students fight in Ukraine.

And yet I have pictures and video of an organized unit fighting at the airport in OMON equipment, including their special titanium helmets that sell for $600-$800 on eBay when they appear. I don't know if the visual evidence caused the reports to be generated that OMON fighting there or if it was independently arrived at.

Here is the video:

I do not have a link to the report that OMON SOBR was reported fighting there, but it was noted and that they took significant casualties. Timeframe was very late September or very early October.

Population of Donbas - 7 millions. + a lot of real volunteers. 30 thousands army - not too much. No need to have thousands of "volunteers".

Except this is fantasy. The separatists themselves have complained, over and over and over again, that they have extreme difficulties finding anybody in Donbas to fight. Plus, I don't think the Donbas has a huge Chechen, Ossetian, and Abkhazian section of the population to recruit from :D

Bolotov had said about counter offensive plans, concentrating vehicles and about personell, being educating in Russia a month before.

At the same time a column of Russian Army APCs were witnessed crossing the border by Western journalists. Nah, those two things couldn't possibly be connected.

Do you believe in that "reports", that Ukrainian media do every week? "100 Russian soldiers killed", "Russian tank column destroyed", "Russian army lost 4000 men to the present moment", that story with Tochka missile and many others.

No, of course I do not believe "reports" that are untrue. Just like I don't believe Russian media's months long statements that "genocide" was being conducted in Donbas.

How many soldiers did U.S. lose in Iraq? Do you really believe, that Russian army would lose 10 times more in 2 weeks, fighting with weaker (or equal) than Saddam army enemy and with full support from local population?

No, I don't believe those casualty figures. But comparing the situation in Ukraine to an insurgency in Iraq against a huge and extremely well organized and equipped military in an arid environment is absolutely silly. There is almost nothing in common. Insurgents didn't have batteries of mobile Grad rocket launchers or self propelled artillery for starters.

If that was so rude and direct, where are tons of indeniable proofs? Sattelite photos of BMD columns, (if they say about regular VDV units) at the boder, inside Ukraine, attacking in line formation, retreating back. Dozens of photos with SPG batteries. They can't be hidden from sattelite, right? So, that actions were limited, I guess.

I hear the same arguments from people who say the Holocaust did not happen. No matter how much evidence is presented, there is always an excuse to say that it isn't real and more needs to be presented. I'm not going to waste my time.

Ukrainan soldiers got lost and crossed border many times. Hundreds of them.

False. The biggest case was the Ukranian units along the south that were cut off by separatists and were being hammered by Russian Army artillery from Russian soil. They had no food, no water, ran out of ammunition, and had no where else to go. They formally moved into Russia under an agreement with the Russian government and the separatist commanders. Sure, there were individuals who moved over the border before that, but they knew they were going into Russia to escape death in Ukraine. They were never "lost".

Steve

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About the "Nazi" issue. For sure Ukraine has far right (fascist/nazi) groups. Every single country in Europe has them, including Russia. For sure the Ukrainians have them at the front line fighting for their country. Why wouldn't they? Their country is being invaded and was caught totally unprepared for the assault. So it is only natural that the government is supportive of motivated volunteers to fight against invaders. Desperate times call for desperate measures, as the old saying goes.

What excuse Russia has for its fascist/nazis fighting in Ukraine? And yes, there is plenty of evidence that this is true. The best example is Pavel Gubarev, who is Russian and a former member of the neo-Nazi "Russian National Unity" (Всероссийское общественное патриотическое движение "Русское Национальное Единство). He appeared out of thin air, apparently, and appointed himself the head of the DPR. I guess in Donetsk the first person that walked in off the street got the job, without any help of any other organization or foreign government.

Here's what a Jewish leader has to say about the neo-Nazi threat posed by Russian groups:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-crisis-who-are-russian-neo-nazi-groups-fighting-separatists-1463489

At the end of the day, the Ukrainian government and the voters have rejected the far right groups in Ukrainian politics. This is the opposite of Russian politics. It is also less of a problem in Ukraine's government than in governments of France, Hungary, Austria, and even Sweden. But the Russian state controlled media propaganda hammer has done a lot to convince people otherwise.

Steve

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Its been documented that Russia itself has been funneling money to those fringe European neo-Nazi and ultra-nationalist groups. Either in support of like-minded individuals or as agent provocateurs so Putin can have a propaganda stick to beat Europe with. Not much difference between thugs is the Netherlands beating up ethnic minorities and thugs in Moscow beating up ethic minorities.

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> Not much difference between thugs is the Netherlands beating up ethnic minorities and thugs in Moscow beating up ethic minorities.

I know you just took a random European country, but neonazi's or other groups beating up minorities is extremely rare in the Netherlands, as are neonazi's in general here. (Not saying there is no other racism here though).

In the East of Germany it is a real problem though, with arson attacks and murder occurring regularly. But one cannot accuse the German government of supporting such things.

That is the big difference with Russia, but unfortunately Hungary as well. And Ukraine.

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And yet I have pictures and video of an organized unit fighting at the airport in OMON equipment, including their special titanium helmets that sell for $600-$800 on eBay when they appear. I don't know if the visual evidence caused the reports to be generated that OMON fighting there or if it was independently arrived at.

Here is the video:

I do not have a link to the report that OMON SOBR was reported fighting there, but it was noted and that they took significant casualties. Timeframe was very late September or very early October.

Donetsk "Bercut" and "Alpha" joined DPR. Hodakovsky is Alpha commander.

All Ukrainian reports about enemy casualties should be divided by 10. :) Not only Ukrainian.

Except this is fantasy. The separatists themselves have complained, over and over and over again, that they have extreme difficulties finding anybody in Donbas to fight. Plus, I don't think the Donbas has a huge Chechen, Ossetian, and Abkhazian section of the population to recruit from :D

Strelkov (Girkin) told recently in his interview about it. He said that complains were for mobilisation effect, to attract more volunteers. Also he said that there were more volunteers than arms in srping.

Ossetians and Abkazians fight mainly in "Vostok" battalion. Now I am afraid that uncons in Black Sea will have eastern apperiance. :D

No, of course I do not believe "reports" that are untrue. Just like I don't believe Russian media's months long statements that "genocide" was being conducted in Donbas.

There are different forms of genocide. One of them - forcing to leave homes.

I hear the same arguments from people who say the Holocaust did not happen. No matter how much evidence is presented, there is always an excuse to say that it isn't real and more needs to be presented. I'm not going to waste my time.

Question is in scale of actions, not did it happen or not. Of course it did happen, imagine communists would make a revolt in Mexica and started hardcore military operation in proamerican north regions. :) I think, that if Putin would do nothing (may be he would like to do nothing) he would lose all his support in the country.

False. The biggest case was the Ukranian units along the south that were cut off by separatists and were being hammered by Russian Army artillery from Russian soil. They had no food, no water, ran out of ammunition, and had no where else to go. They formally moved into Russia under an agreement with the Russian government and the separatist commanders. Sure, there were individuals who moved over the border before that, but they knew they were going into Russia to escape death in Ukraine. They were never "lost".

There were some other cases, one time they lost their BMP on Russian territory. And they shelled town near the border with 1 Russian civilian killed.

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There are different forms of genocide. One of them - forcing to leave homes.

Not so fast, that actually is not quite true particularly in the context.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide

While the Ukrainian army may be guilty of certain violations in using artillery near populated areas that is not the same as an enforced program against the entire population. Most of the ukrainian artillery fire into populated areas is counter fire against well documented use by DPR of artillery positions deliberately set up in civilian areas.

An actual program of genocide by internationally accepted standards of what genocide means has not been documented. When throwing around terms like genocide you do not get to define the term however you want and expect to maintain any credibility. Russian use of the term has not met those international standards and has frequently been proven to be based on photographic evidence of Russia's own atrocities in Chechnya.

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sburke, they regularly shell towns and cities where were no DPR forces. People who suffer from shelling would note if rebel's mortar would shoot in this place 10 mins ago, right?

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sburke, they regularly shell towns and cities where were no DPR forces. People who suffer from shelling would note if rebel's mortar would shoot in this place 10 mins ago, right?

Regularly? Source? The OSCE monitors are not reporting that and they have documented the rebel practice of firing from civilian areas which is a human rights violation. This particularly around the battle over the airport.

Here is the OSCE website for those who wish to see what the monitors are saying. Note the DPR/LPR forces continue to prevent the OSCE from fulfilling their role in the occupied areas in violation of the Minsk agreement making reporting on activities in those areas problematic.

http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/daily-updates

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