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ukraine military vs russia

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No objection at all, just surprise.

I have to confess that I didn't look at any numbers before posting. It Looks like I gravely overestimated Russias military capacity.

I take back everything I said and Claim the contrary.

Thanks for the post! Yes, many things have changed over the past 20 years. The simple fact is that the Soviet Union was a match for NATO because a huge portion of Europe's population was in the Warsaw Pact. Russia also had a massive military which was unsupportable even in the 1980s, which is a large reason for the collapse of the Soviet Union's economy and political existence. Therefore, it was impossible for Russia to continue having such a large military. Some time in Putin's rule he terminated the contracts of more than TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND senior officers all at one time!

Since the Soviet Union collapsed, 100% of that population switched from being aligned with Russia to being aligned with NATO. This is what we call a "double whammy" in English. What that means not only did Russia lose a huge population base and its military, but that population base and its military are now aligned with NATO. I will illustrate this using fake numbers to be simple:

Pre 1990

Soviet Union 1,000,000 armed force

NATO 1,000,000 armed force

Ratio = 1:1

Post 1990

Russia 500,000 armed force

NATO 1,500,000 armed force

Ratio = 1:3

Then there is the quality gap. The majority of NATO's forces are "first line" quality, the majority of Russia's forces are "second line" quality. Which means Russia has a smaller military than NATO and less of it is equal to NATO's average forces.

At the tactical level everything is different. Which is why CMBS is going to be very interesting to play!

And I thought that I finally found someone I could believe everything and praise it as truth.

Looks like I have to keep searching.

If you ever find such a person, I would love to meet him or her :)

Steve

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here's what I found: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/03/ukraine-soldier-youre-better-clueless-because-truth-horrible-moscow-ilovaysk

and http://news.yahoo.com/over-100-russian-soldiers-killed-eastern-ukraine-russian-155412872.html

in august it may have been regular units

That wiped out company the two paratroopers were talking about may be the one that you are talking about steve, or the ammo trucks convoy

The first article you posted is about the battle of Ilovaysk where Pro-Kiev volunteer paramilitary units were surrounded and routed by Oplot and Vostok (Donbass one not Chechen one) The encirclement occurred because the Prykarpattia BN whom (according to the Kiev investigation - take it for what it is worth) in one month due to casualties and desertion whet from a strength of 4000 (I find that a quite liberal estimate) to a mere 300 at the time of the battle, "on their own initiative retreated from the battle" allowing the units in Ilovaysk to be encircled. The Kiev inquiry solely put the blame of the defeat on the Prykarpattia unit's unauthorized retreat, but the prosecutor declined to press any charges.

The second article mentions people who were discredited later when their lists of Russian 200s(KIAs) included 8 year old football club rosters from lower level leagues among other things, showing how .

The problem with trying to follow this war is not only its complexity (it is not a simple good guys - bad guys scenario some outlets try to communicate) but also that nobody involved can be trusted, at least not 100%. The idea put forward that the war in Donbass is a completely Russian (as in Russian government) orchestrated, controlled, armed, manned, and supported is ludicrous. The idea that there is no complicity from the Russian government or at least agencies/agents of that government is just as ludicrous.

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It appears to be this one, which is 2nd hand from a friend who helps me with research:

I believe the website he got it from is this one:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/gruz200/

And an article about the website:

http://m.censor.net.ua/photo_news/303218/pod_debaltsevo_rossiyiskaya_svodnaya_gruppa_21yi_otdelnoyi_motostrelkovoyi_brigady_popala_pod_artobstrel

I did find some notes of my own from the 19th of September:

I found some other notes about #1 above that mention the Russian force was a supply unit. I do not have a link, but the source was a Russian activist by the name of Yelena Vasilyeva.

Sorry I don't have better information than that!

Steve

I live in Russia and am not what some one would call a supporter of the Russian government, and completely disagree with the annexation of Crimea- (it has nearly destroyed the Russian domestic tourism industry with the government trying to pressure companies to convince people to visit Crimea, it lead to the bankruptcy of several long standing tour companies.) As well as many other economic hardships that aren't even connected to the diplomatic spats over sanctions I must tell you - Yelena Vasilyeva is an awful, awful source to use, as well as censor.net.ua.

It seems that you are using sources that are definitely skewed one way that are not fully trustworthy (which is typical on all sides) It is the same as reading a report from Motorola that his unit destroyed 20 enemy tanks in 15 minutes (a common report) and taking it as the truth.

I could list plenty of stuff from the other point of view (with the same level of reputation of the sources you posted) that are going to say completely different things. I guess it boils down to this, if you are convinced of a certain narrative - you are going to believe those sources.

Edit: As a side, Steve since you are an administrator, could you tell me why to access any BF page no matter where I am trying to access it from I must use VPN software and change my IP to outside of Russia?

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I live in Russia and am not what some one would call a supporter of the Russian government, and completely disagree with the annexation of Crimea- (it has nearly destroyed the Russian domestic tourism industry with the government trying to pressure companies to convince people to visit Crimea, it lead to the bankruptcy of several long standing tour companies.) As well as many other economic hardships that aren't even connected to the diplomatic spats over sanctions I must tell you - Yelena Vasilyeva is an awful, awful source to use, as well as censor.net.ua.

It seems that you are using sources that are definitely skewed one way that are not fully trustworthy (which is typical on all sides) It is the same as reading a report from Motorola that his unit destroyed 20 enemy tanks in 15 minutes (a common report) and taking it as the truth.

I could list plenty of stuff from the other point of view (with the same level of reputation of the sources you posted) that are going to say completely different things. I guess it boils down to this, if you are convinced of a certain narrative - you are going to believe those sources.

Edit: As a side, Steve since you are an administrator, could you tell me why to access any BF page no matter where I am trying to access it from I must use VPN software and change my IP to outside of Russia?

1. I live in the West, and would love to hear much more from independent Russian sources. So please do post anything when you can.

2. Agreed it is difficult sometimes to screen out the propaganda, personal, and sociological biases. But many of us prefer the truth so strive to balance these and be as objective as possible.

3. "As well as many other economic hardships that aren't even connected to the diplomatic spats over sanctions". Please do tell us, or list examples of the other economic impact.

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Hi,

On a more cheerful note, I am not a fan of politics on these forums but each to their own.. Russia really does have a mass of new kit coming. All very real and available to place your orders now if the right export customer. So in say a year’s time or so, Steve would know I can only guess ;), the latest, most modern Russian kit available in CMBS could be very different.

Battlefront had a truly impossible job of picking what kit to go for as it estimated what may be available in three years time. They have done a very balanced job and shown great caution, thankfully. Fantasy kit would kill the game stone dead for me :). But there is none of that. Also, as of now, due to higher defence spending the US would have more “latest...” model kit than Russia.

But it just so happens that Russia is on the very cusp of introducing new everything.

New main battle tank, new IFVs both tracked and wheeled and new Active Protection Systems in Arena 3 to protect them.

They also have new RPGs, RPG 32/30, and a new ATGM version Kornet-D on the Tigr that are designed to penetrate the current/near future western Active Protection Systems. But this of course will be an ongoing arms race in itself.

Let’s wait for equipment to actually be issued before including it, as general rule anyway, but even going by this rule in the editor you may have a lot of new Russian kit to represent the very latest stuff a year or more from now.

All very good fun,

We are lucky to have CM at all.. just look at that completion ;),

All the best,

Kip.

PS. Steve... speaking as a wildly unreasonable and over demanding customer.. I do think you dropped the ball on the RPG 32/30 ;). Not the same but they do the same trick. The reason is that they “pre-date...” APS on NATO tanks by so much that it is inconceivable that even if there were a clash next/last summer Russian infantry would not have them if there was even the remotest chance of NATO managing to fit APS by then. Note I am not lobbying for the Kornet-D until fielded.. it does not pre-date NATO APS in quite the same way.

PPS. It would also “very realistically..” help with game balance as an area, very close range AT warfare, where the Russians have an edge over the US now.

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1. I live in the West, and would love to hear much more from independent Russian sources. So please do post anything when you can.

2. Agreed it is difficult sometimes to screen out the propaganda, personal, and sociological biases. But many of us prefer the truth so strive to balance these and be as objective as possible.

3. "As well as many other economic hardships that aren't even connected to the diplomatic spats over sanctions". Please do tell us, or list examples of the other economic impact.

As for 3, it is a bit off topic, but state pension funds are being 'borrowed' from to bring Crimean infrastructure and administration up to the RF standard, which is not an incredibly high standard. By all accounts though things were ignored completely in Crimea and now must be fixed all at once, mainly for political reasons. Already low pensions have been in some cases lowered or in most cases frozen, despite coming inflation. It is an unfortunate situation.

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As for 3, it is a bit off topic, but state pension funds are being 'borrowed' from to bring Crimean infrastructure and administration up to the RF standard, which is not an incredibly high standard. By all accounts though things were ignored completely in Crimea and now must be fixed all at once, mainly for political reasons. Already low pensions have been in some cases lowered or in most cases frozen, despite coming inflation. It is an unfortunate situation.

That's a fairly huge one.

Not completely off topic. From war-game scenario view it could be adding pressure to Russia for a quicker 'win'.

edited, and thank you for taking time to provide some information that's not so mainstream news.

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I must tell you - Yelena Vasilyeva is an awful, awful source to use, as well as censor.net.ua.

Good to know. Some of the sources I use are more verifiable, but there is an inherent problem with discovering some types of information.

It seems that you are using sources that are definitely skewed one way that are not fully trustworthy (which is typical on all sides) It is the same as reading a report from Motorola that his unit destroyed 20 enemy tanks in 15 minutes (a common report) and taking it as the truth.

This is the biggest problem with the war so far. The details of combat are extremely difficult to verify. At times it was almost impossible to know where the front lines were because both sides made outrageous claims of where their forces were. Plus, early on both sides would load up a couple of mini-busses/SUVs, drive a couple of towns over, raise a flag, take pictures, and claim it was theirs. Then they would get in their mini-busses/SUVs and drive as fast as they could back to safer places.

The Ukrainian government sources have improved their accuracy since the conflict started, but like all government information anywhere... some trust problems exist. However, the information coming from Ukraine's defense ministry tends to have a basis in reality.

The major problem is that there is no official Russian source of information. None. Why not? Because officially the Russian government says it has no troops in Ukraine at all. Therefore, they can challenge casualty reports because they can't even admit their forces were involved. Worse, we also know very well that Russian government disinformation campaign is massive. Russia, as with the Soviet Union, has a trick they play by feeding information to "activists" that they know is untrue and will discredit the source. In fact, sometimes the "activists" are on the FSB payroll.

And getting information from LPR/DPR/Novorussian sources is extremely unproductive. These organizations are criminal from bottom to top, so the information they provide is always suspect. Even when some basic facts are correct, the rest is exaggeration or outright lies.

So it is very accurate to say that low level information (how many KIA/WIA, what unit was involved, the details of the attack, etc.) are often impossible to verify with any degree of certainty.

I could list plenty of stuff from the other point of view (with the same level of reputation of the sources you posted) that are going to say completely different things. I guess it boils down to this, if you are convinced of a certain narrative - you are going to believe those sources.

Well, it is true that I am "convinced" that Russia invaded Ukraine starting around February 25th and has been actively fighting a war against Ukraine ever since. The evidence for this is overwhelming. The details, however, are definitely difficult to know for sure because.

The choice we have is to either not pay any attention to the details until 10-15 years from now, or we try to make sense of the information we have available. Sometimes it will be wildly incorrect, but if care is taken the overall picture can at least be understood.

Edit: As a side, Steve since you are an administrator, could you tell me why to access any BF page no matter where I am trying to access it from I must use VPN software and change my IP to outside of Russia?

It has to do with the Russian ISPs that are available to you. Unfortunately security in many country's ISPs are very bad. Hackers use the huge security holes to launch attacks against our servers. Russia, Belarus, Turkey, and China are some of the worst ones. The only way to guard ourselves is to block very large ranges of IP addresses. We do not like blocking IP address, but we like attacks on our servers (which happen sometimes thousands of times in a day!) even less.

Steve

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As for 3, it is a bit off topic, but state pension funds are being 'borrowed' from to bring Crimean infrastructure and administration up to the RF standard, which is not an incredibly high standard. By all accounts though things were ignored completely in Crimea and now must be fixed all at once, mainly for political reasons. Already low pensions have been in some cases lowered or in most cases frozen, despite coming inflation. It is an unfortunate situation.

This is off topic, but in contrast to what I stated above about the fighting... the economic difficulties within Russia are actually very well documented by reputable sources of information. Of course the Russian government tries to hide things it doesn't want known (like all governments do!), but the information is much harder to suppress.

BTW, the raiding of the pension fund started before Crimea. From what I remember... in 2013 the government stopped adding money to the fund. The money that was supposed to go into the fund was diverted into other spending needs. Since Crimea, however, money has been removed from the fund itself. As far as I know that did not happen before Crimea.

Steve

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1. I live in the West, and would love to hear much more from independent Russian sources. So please do post anything when you can.

Absolutely.

2. Agreed it is difficult sometimes to screen out the propaganda, personal, and sociological biases. But many of us prefer the truth so strive to balance these and be as objective as possible.

I consider myself a historian and a true historian is only concerned about the truth. As I just posted, the problem is that the quality of information is not great during a conflict even in the best of circumstances. However, in this case it is lopsided in favor of the Ukrainian point of view. That is because the other side is Russia and Russia is lying on a massive scale at the most fundamental level. That complicates discovering what the truth is when one side refuses to participate in documenting current events or is proven to be inherently untrustworthy. It is further complicated by Russian state controlled media and efforts to control independent media reporting. Imprisonment, beatings, and interference are not uncommon. Murder, fortunately, has decreased under Putin. However, it still happens, such as this one in August:

http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/aug/05/journalist-safety-russia

Still, even with these limitations a trained and experienced eye can understand the larger events. This understanding allows for two things:

1. To have a sense of what might come next

2. To recognize changes when they are happening (preferably just before!) instead of after

Although the information from the combat zone is unreliable in detail, I was also able to recognize, and predict, that in early August Russia would be forced to either give up DPR/LPR or have to invest its own forces to halt the Ukrainian counter offensive. As the full blown Russian counter offensive started (roughly August 15) I knew right away what it was and what it's immediate military objectives were. I was only mildly surprised by the attack towards Mariupol, but recognized its role in the counter offensive on the first day it started because it was consistent with my understanding of the bigger picture.

Was it important to know if X Russian unit lost Y men in Z location? No. The report could be 100% fake or 100% real, in terms of the "big picture" it doesn't matter because it is only one thing that is being considered.

Put another way... if I were forced to write a book about the history of the war in Ukraine now, and was given a choice between detailing the strategic and operational history or the tactical history, I feel confident I could write a pretty accurate strategic/operational book from the information that is available already. I feel even more confident that I could NOT write an operational/tactical book with the available information. The available information is sufficient for one, completely insufficient for the other.

Steve

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I have a friend who was training young Ukrainian officers before the war started. He is ex-US military working directly for the Ukrainian government. He said that it was a daily frustration of dealing with the "Soviet mentality".

I'm sure they had trouble with his "American mentality". So he was CIA and was assisting with the coup d'état ?

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the source was a Russian activist by the name of Yelena Vasilyeva.

Cross off this source from your list. I don't know, is she a little mad or just trying to earn some popularity or money. But she sometimes says such nonsense. Like football team and characters from fiction book in "200" list. :)

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Cross off this source from your list. I don't know, is she a little mad or just trying to earn some popularity or money. But she sometimes says such nonsense. Like football team and characters from fiction book in "200" list. :)

That is what the Kremlin alleges, but it has a long history of smearing and jailing anyone who does not follow the Party line.

Yelena Vasilyeva is certainly a more credible source than Russia Today. :P

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Russian GRU became to "leak" for Vasilyeva fake information in order for further "disclosure" of her information and in such way for defamation of any info about Russian troops involvement. Alas, Vasilyeva can't differ where true info and where GRU trap, so her information can assume, but thoroughly to filter.

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That is what the Kremlin alleges, but it has a long history of smearing and jailing anyone who does not follow the Party line.

Yelena Vasilyeva is certainly a more credible source than Russia Today. :P

No, that is not what the Kremlin alleges, it is what reality shows. There are plenty of credible and legitimate activists (whom are not jailed, btw) but Lenka Vaska is not one of them. If you want to play conspiracy theorist you might think she was actually an agent of the Kremlin working to discredit dissident activism. That is how untrustworthy anything she says is.

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Russian GRU became to "leak" for Vasilyeva fake information in order for further "disclosure" of her information and in such way for defamation of any info about Russian troops involvement. Alas, Vasilyeva can't differ where true info and where GRU trap, so her information can assume, but thoroughly to filter.

I think the origin of her football club list was VK, one of the countless lists of 200s that were being copy pasted on everybody's page. On a side note, when these lists began appearing, suddenly the European and American media began to explain what груз 200 and груз 300 meant, though they often translated it as the literal meaning and not the colloquial meaning.

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Russian GRU became to "leak" for Vasilyeva fake information in order for further "disclosure" of her information and in such way for defamation of any info about Russian troops involvement. Alas, Vasilyeva can't differ where true info and where GRU trap, so her information can assume, but thoroughly to filter.

I thought about this. :) Then she believes to any information, if GRU can "leak" fake information for her, then why SBU can't.

That is what the Kremlin alleges, but it has a long history of smearing and jailing anyone who does not follow the Party line.

Yelena Vasilyeva is certainly a more credible source than Russia Today.

I don't watch nor RT, nor BBC, nor CNN. I don't think that RT is less credible then CNN, for example. But there is internet, no need to believe media. And Vasilyeva is absolutely incredible. :) Even less credible then CNN and RT. If you would watch some her videos...

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I don't think that RT is less credible then CNN, for example.

RT is still claiming there are no Russian troops at all in Ukraine, when the evidence that Russians troops are fighting and dying in Ukraine is now too widespread to be deniable.

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RT is still claiming there are no Russian troops at all in Ukraine, when the evidence that Russians troops are fighting and dying in Ukraine is now too widespread to be deniable.

Bringing up RT, CNN, BBC, or whatever has nothing to do with the fact that Elena Vasilyeva is crap, always has been and always will be. All of her information is discredited and proven false quite quickly. She is actually a detriment to Russians with dissenting opinions.

BTW, not everyone with a dissenting opinion is harassed or jailed. I have a large bookmark list of dissenting blogs by authors that do not attempt to hide their identity. They have been posting for years, and have not been beaten, jailed, etc. While there is certainly a lot to be desired in the realm of freedom of speech in this country - it is not the police state cracking down on anyone that dissents that seems to be portrayed in western news sources.

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RT is still claiming there are no Russian troops at all in Ukraine, when the evidence that Russians troops are fighting and dying in Ukraine is now too widespread to be deniable.

Only real, undeniable proofs of that - several real Russian soldiers with documents, (!) captured by Ukrainians near border, and that photos of T-72B3 and BTR-82A . Not too much for "widespread evidences that Russians troops are fighting and dying in Ukraine", right?

So, RT have possibility to claim what it claims.

I wonder, why NATO doesn't publish sattelite or UAV photos of "Russian army" columns.

Western media also conceal some things, I won't list them, as they are political and off topic on this forum. Would you exept another?

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You don't even need to take the American's word for it, just go to liveleak and try to identify the Russian vehicles. I haven't done that in a while, but a while ago I saw what looked like a BTR-80A/BTR-82A, which Ukraine doesn't have. I'm sure you can find more Russian vehicles, like the new tanks that entered Ukraine recently.

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