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ukraine military vs russia

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Matt Taibbi does a good job chronicling the causes of the financial crash of 2007/2008 in his book "Griftopia" - it's a pretty entertaining read for such a depressing subject.

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Soooo about this so called "Black Sea game" lol. Any chance of volunteer battalions being in? I know that this has its own alternate pseudo history, but volunteer battalions would be legit.

Also, I wonder if the infantry assets and textures will have a varying array of uniforms mixed in throughout. It would be kind of weird seeing all of the Ukrainian forces with one camo pattern, an ACH, and IOTV knock off.

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Soooo about this so called "Black Sea game" lol. Any chance of volunteer battalions being in? I know that this has its own alternate pseudo history, but volunteer battalions would be legit.

Also, I wonder if the infantry assets and textures will have a varying array of uniforms mixed in throughout. It would be kind of weird seeing all of the Ukrainian forces with one camo pattern, an ACH, and IOTV knock off.

Well, maybe they will have fixed their uniform problem 2 years from now.

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Well, maybe they will have fixed their uniform problem 2 years from now.

I am pretty sure I saw Chris state that the Ukrainians will have two uniform options, the uniform they use now a days, and the Ukrainian camouflage they are developing, which is a take on digital I believe.

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We are getting off topic. However, I do wish to state that the patterns of history DO give us the ability to project (not predict) forward. The study of history has been a life long part of who I am, it is what I have a degree in, and it is what brought me to wargaming. My life long studying of history allowed me to:

1. Predict that at the first sign of a power shift in Kiev towards the West Putin would attack and destabilize Ukraine through every underhanded means he learned while a KGB officer and since.

2. Predict specific details of how the crisis would unfold, including taking Crimea first and faking a referendum so it could be annexed.

3. Predict various actions and outcomes within this crisis based on very little, non-classified information.

4. Predict the economic problems that would befall Russia once the sanctions were threatened (not even implemented!). That prediction included Russia running out of money and credit well before the 2 years predicted by Russian government officials recently. And that was even before oil dropped to below $80 a barrel when there is a national budget that goes into deficit spending in the mid $90s a barrel.

How many of you here were talking about a Russian invasion of crimea on February 23rd? Who was predicting the invasion a few days before the first Green Men making their appearance at the airport in Simferopol on the 27th? I certainly was. And this is what I said on February 28, hours after the first Green Men appeared:

This is an invasion, pure and simple. I feel very sorry for the people of Crimea. They are not going to have any choice in their status. Putin is making sure of that.

Yet most people at the time were debating who the Green Men were and what their plan was. I already knew, not because I have a crystal ball, but because I paid attention to what was happening (the first tangible signs of invasion started on the 22nd of February). I am not always right, but so far my track record is pretty damned good when it comes to this particular crisis. I've done pretty well for some other ones too:

I predicted the housing bubble calamity years before it happened and made personal financial decisions that insulated me from the disaster. Those actions caused me to lose less than a partial percentage point of my 401k's total value in 2008 when friends of mine lost 50% or more in a couple of days. It is no coincidence that my home mortgage was held by a bank that came through the crisis with no negative effects on its customers or shareholders. For YEARS prior to the disaster of 2008 I regularly checked my bank's lending practices to make sure they remained tough. If they found my doom predictions silly at the time they didn't say so. They certainly don't say so now :)

Anyway... back to the game...

Soooo about this so called "Black Sea game" lol. Any chance of volunteer battalions being in? I know that this has its own alternate pseudo history, but volunteer battalions would be legit.

They are planned for a Module, because in any conventional attack on the scale of CM they would be a component piece of the Ukrainian force.

Also, I wonder if the infantry assets and textures will have a varying array of uniforms mixed in throughout. It would be kind of weird seeing all of the Ukrainian forces with one camo pattern, an ACH, and IOTV knock off.

We are planning some variety, but already you can see the Ukrainian forces are standardizing equipment more and more each month.

Steve

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Ah, I see that we're going to have some difficulty keeping up the conceit that our virtual Ukraine war and the real Ukraine war only overlap coincidentally. :rolleyes:

I'm reminded of an episode of the sitcom 'Community'. The group was assigned to decorate the school cafeteria for a party. They decided the theme would be bears ("Bear Down For Finals"). After they had finished they only then learned that there had been a vicious bear attack on a grammar school that had been playing live on all the news stations that day. Too late to redo the decorations they instead told everyone the theme for the party was 'really big overweight dogs' - not bears at all. BFC's got the same problem here. We aren't recreating the current war between Ukraine and the Russian bear, its an entirely different wargame between Ukraine and ...uh ...a big overweight Russian dog! Not a bear at all. No resemblance whatsoever! :o

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A most interesting thread! I bookmarked the ARES report, too. A few points.

The US now has an operational BMD Aegis Ashore (Ballistic Missile Defense) installation in Romania. I got this from my sources before this info became public, but here it is in open source. The facility name is a marvel of Pentagon genius in innocuous naming: Naval Support Facility! Only the Pentagon could turn a strategic BMD complex into some logistics base.

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2014/10/14/US-Navy-opens-ballistic-missile-defense-facility-in-Romania/4551413296598/

This is Putin's worst nightmare made real, with more such installations coming soon elsewhere in Europe. Poland's is due to go live in 2018, further constraining Putin. Poland is in the midst of a massive rework and upgrading of its entire air defense and is adding BMD as a priority matter.

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/if-necessary-alone-the-shield-of-poland-022785/

Since it's designed to kill ICBMs, Aegis Ashore will eat the kinematically far easier to engage Iskander for lunch, and well does Putin know it. Effectively, such installations deprive Putin of one of his prime weapon systems, with which some time back he ostentatiously threatened Europe.

http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/russia-announces-iskander-missile-drills-western-military-district/

Late September, Putin did the same thing in the Far Eastern Military district.

http://rt.com/news/189372-iskander-missile-russia-drill/

Iskander is NOT a grid square remover, an assertion ludicrous on its face. The putative obliteration of a grid square would have to be done with a whole 800 kgs, max, of warhead. If we posit no NBC weaponry is used, that leaves bomblets (last known to be Grad equivalents, as seen in SS-21 tests I saw during my military aerospace days) or FAE, neither of which can remotely effectively cover a grid square. Try a radius of effect of a few hundred meters.

http://defense-update.com/products/i/iskander.htm

Both the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic have had trainers and advisers in Ukraine since at least early May. My understanding is that they've been key in getting the Ukrainian Army sorted out. The US was repeatedly asked for this kind of help, but Obama declined to do so. As of 10 hours ago, the US is increasing nonlethal military aid to Ukraine, including still not delivered (see WSJ link below) countermortar radars and newly authorized Hummers.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-ukraine-crisis-usa-exclusive-idUSKCN0J426U20141120

On September 18, 2014, the administration authorized $53 million in nonlethal aid, including the still undelivered CM radar, but including such useful things as body armor, helmets, NVGs and radios.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-leader-calls-for-more-western-military-aid-1411055160

Regards,

John Kettler

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BMD is only useful in the event of a BM. Would have done nothing to stop the 'green men' and the astroturf uprisings using inserted hooligans in eastern provinces bordering Russia. I hear rumors that a fair percentage of European ultra-nationalist movements have Russian money keeping them afloat. Birds of a feather, and all that.

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I stand corrected... not grid square remover.. but very effective indeed in Georgia in 2008. (according to wikipedia, one Iskander knocked out dozens of georgian tanks parked in formation). Imagine what it would do to artillery positions or anything for that matter. Its not a game changer or superiority weapon against NATO, but its something to think about for an army like Ukraine.

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and btw, as soon as the change of power in Kiev happened and trouble began stirring, I told myself : here we go. RUssia will move and was watching the news intently for signs of an intervention. I didnt have to wait long. Frankly if anyone wondered who the green men were and from where they were coming ... what did they expect ? Mars ?

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I'm just afraid that we "The West" are cornering Putin and that he may bite and try to fight his way out. On the other hand something needs to be done, if we are not ready to use force to tell him that behaving like he does in not ok then sanctions are the only tool left. It's just that based on what I hear the Russian media is brainwashing Russian people into beleving that the EU and USA are anti-Russian which may eventually "justify" a more agressive stance by Putin. Let's just hope it doesn't come to that...

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The question I couldn't answer easily is what percentage of them are under 50?

Check out:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html

and:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html

Scroll down to the section "People and Society" click to expand it. Under there they have a break down by age range.

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Hi,

For me this is incredibly timely not specifically because NATO is going to enter the former Soviet Union and take on Russia militarily in the Ukraine, it isn’t, but because the Great Game between nation states is on again globally.

The Financial Times reported, well predicted, that this year the alternative, non-western G7 will have higher GDP at ppp/parity purchasing power then “the...” G7. Not just China overtaking the US according to the IMF and World Bank, but the entire G7 being overtaken. Clearly ten to twenty years down the line, pick your own number... potential military advantage would be expected to follow. At the very least, military parity.

For good or ill, let’s not get into the politics or rights and wrongs, Britain is incredibly restless politically, more so than anytime for decades, because the Brits certainly “get it..” when it comes to the decline of the west. It is talked about here constantly although Britain has declined no more than the US and strangely rather less than Germany if take the old West Germany as the measure. From the ‘80s to now for western countries. Anyway..

It is moving rapidly towards normal competition between nations states and in many parts of the world there will be squaring off by more evenly balanced opponents than we have seen for some time.

I have not looked at contemporary, high intensity warfare for years, no need to. It looks far more interesting than I had expected.

So as a “sandbox...” this is perfect timing. Will be far more fun than I expected. As we are here for the hopefully cheerful and friendly business of enjoying the “tactics and weapons...” of wargaming.

Greatly looking forward to this,

All the best,

Kip.

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I stand corrected... not grid square remover.. but very effective indeed in Georgia in 2008. (according to wikipedia, one Iskander knocked out dozens of georgian tanks parked in formation). Imagine what it would do to artillery positions or anything for that matter. Its not a game changer or superiority weapon against NATO, but its something to think about for an army like Ukraine.

It is also a problem for Russia to think about. So far it seems the majority of armored vehicles destroyed by Ukraine have been through artillery strikes. Which is somewhat surprising until you consider that they have plenty of "agents" phoning in GPS coordinates for concentrations that have stuck around the same place too long.

As the Russian counter offensive in August started there was a case of several hundred Russians being killed and wounded in a single strike. They first mistake was using a single building (abandoned factory, IIRC) to spend the night in. The second mistake was choosing a building outside of a population zone so Ukraine didn't have to worry much about collateral damage. The third mistake was thinking Ukraine wouldn't notice. The fourth mistake was thinking the Ukrainians couldn't hit it if they tried. I'd have to do some digging to find the date, place, and the specific unit that was hit... but all that information was verified at the time.

and btw, as soon as the change of power in Kiev happened and trouble began stirring, I told myself : here we go. RUssia will move and was watching the news intently for signs of an intervention. I didnt have to wait long. Frankly if anyone wondered who the green men were and from where they were coming ... what did they expect ? Mars ?

The first name I saw for them was "Martians" :D But "Green Men" is better and so it got adopted. As for where they came from, at the time Putin said they were average Crimeans who went to good military surplus shops or eBay. I looked for Tigr armored trucks on eBay right after that, because I figured I could get a sweet deal on one since I know Crimeans are rather poor. I guess the Crimeans bought the all up using eBay's "Buy It Now" feature because I didn't see a single one. Then months later Putin gave an explanation as to why I couldn't find them for sale... the Green Men were Russian military and the Tigrs were never available for sale to ordinary citizens. Damn, I really wanted one!

Steve

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As the Russian counter offensive in August started there was a case of several hundred Russians being killed and wounded in a single strike. They first mistake was using a single building (abandoned factory, IIRC) to spend the night in. The second mistake was choosing a building outside of a population zone so Ukraine didn't have to worry much about collateral damage. The third mistake was thinking Ukraine wouldn't notice. The fourth mistake was thinking the Ukrainians couldn't hit it if they tried. I'd have to do some digging to find the date, place, and the specific unit that was hit... but all that information was verified at the time.

Please do, and post it ASAP. I speak English, Russian and Ukrainian so feel to post anything you dig up in any of those 3 languages. I'm mostly interested in whom it was verified by.

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This sounds like you disagree with my statement, but I don't know what your objection is?

Steve

No objection at all, just surprise.

I have to confess that I didn't look at any numbers before posting. It Looks like I gravely overestimated Russias military capacity.

I take back everything I said and Claim the contrary.

I already knew, not because I have a crystal ball, but because I paid attention to what was happening (...).

I am not always right, but so far my track record is pretty damned good when it comes to this particular crisis. I've done pretty well for some other ones too:

Steve

And I thought that I finally found someone I could believe everything and praise it as truth.

Looks like I have to keep searching.

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and if that factory hit is true.. well... never underestimate an enemy. It wont happen twice. That's also what happens when you try to be sneaky and you do not soften up an enemy with air power, missiles, long range modern arty and helicopters before going in ;) the enemy can also get lucky, remember that Scud hit during the first gulf war.

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from what I've been reading, most russians in Ukraine are fighting disguised as rebels with second rate equipement that could be not be traced 100% to RUssia, so that's not the real Russian Army there with all the bells and whistles. We would need to see an overt intervention with everything but the kitchen sink to really evaluate the russian army. In Crimea it was actual operational units with all the cool stuff that invaded and it was impressive even according to american generals.

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here's what I found: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/03/ukraine-soldier-youre-better-clueless-because-truth-horrible-moscow-ilovaysk

and http://news.yahoo.com/over-100-russian-soldiers-killed-eastern-ukraine-russian-155412872.html

in august it may have been regular units

That wiped out company the two paratroopers were talking about may be the one that you are talking about steve, or the ammo trucks convoy

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Please do, and post it ASAP. I speak English, Russian and Ukrainian so feel to post anything you dig up in any of those 3 languages. I'm mostly interested in whom it was verified by.

It appears to be this one, which is 2nd hand from a friend who helps me with research:

the soldiers' relative site reports that near Snezhnoe what must have been a BMG (tanks, BTRs, BRDMs, ADA, trucks, fuel carriers) were hiding on the ground of a factory and the Ukrainians hit it with a Tochka-U missile. According to the site 400 (!) soldiers survived alive and unhurt, the remainder are missing or not yet formally counted. No date tied to this strike.

I believe the website he got it from is this one:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/gruz200/

And an article about the website:

http://m.censor.net.ua/photo_news/303218/pod_debaltsevo_rossiyiskaya_svodnaya_gruppa_21yi_otdelnoyi_motostrelkovoyi_brigady_popala_pod_artobstrel

I did find some notes of my own from the 19th of September:

1. there is a report of a major artillery strike on the Russian 21st Separate Motor Rifle Brigade. It's reported that 21 KIA, 40 WIA, 7 tanks destroyed, other vehicles destroyed. It was in the process of maneuvering on the eastern? side of Debaltsevo. Unknown if it was Ukrainian or separatist/Russian artillery that hit them. I think the date was the 16th of September.

2. Related to the above, it is reported that the majority of these soldiers were conscripts forced to sign papers making them contract soldiers and then were sent into Ukraine as "separatists" along with the usual promises of money and medical care. After they were killed the army backdated their deaths to when they were still conscripts and have denied the benefits due to the families. I can't say with any certainty how accurate this one report is, but I can say that this has been a standard part of the story from other family members of those killed in Ukraine.

3. A separate, and unconfirmed, report of a massive kill of Russian battalion task force near Snezhnoe. Due to the lack of suitable housing, and not wanting to mix with the local population, they chose a remote factory to settle down in. Ukrainian forces found out about this and knowing there was little chance of causing civilian casualties they fired Tochka-U missiles at it. It is reported that 400 soldiers survived the hit, but the rest were killed or wounded. I'd guess that means 200-400 casualties, though I don't know what the size of such a group typically is. The report specified that the logistics tail (fuel and ammo vehicles) were also present.

I found some other notes about #1 above that mention the Russian force was a supply unit. I do not have a link, but the source was a Russian activist by the name of Yelena Vasilyeva.

Sorry I don't have better information than that!

Steve

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On September 22nd I cleaned up various sources about what Russian units have been in Ukraine up to that point. Note that some of these units were only company sized, but usually only the parent unit was noted:

Regular Army Brigades

6th Tank Brigade, Mulino

8th Mountain Motorized Rifle Brigade, Borzoy, Chechnya

9th Motorized Rifle Brigade, Nizhniy Novgorod

15th Motorized Rifle Brigade (part of the so-called “Peacekeeping forces”), Samara

18th Motorized Rifle Brigade, Shali, Chechnya

19th Motorized Rifle Brigade, Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia/Stanitsa Troitskaya, Ingushetia

21st Motorized Rifle Brigade, Totskoye

23rd Motorized Rifle Brigade, Samara

33rd Mountain Motorized Rifle Brigade, Maykop, Adygea

74th Motorized Rifle Brigade, Yurga, Novosibirsk

136th Motorized Rifle Brigade Botlikh, Dagestan

Airborne Elements

7th Division – 247th Regiment, Novorossiysk/ Stavropol

76th Division – 234th Regiment, Pskov

98th Division – 331th Regiment, Ivanovo/Kostroma

106th Division – 137th Regiment, Tula

31th Airborne Assault Brigade (“Peacekeeping forces”), Ulyanovsk

Special Forces

25th Regiment of Special Forces, Stavropol

45th Separate Regiment of Special Forces, Kubinka

200th Brigade of Special Forces Northern Fleet, Pechenega village, Murmansk region

Special groups from military unit No.35690, Center of Special Forces, Codename of the base: “Sputnik”, Balashyha, Moskow region

Airborne Intelligence Group, 16th Brigade of Special Forces, Tambov

Support Units

7th Military Base (support personnel), occupied Abkhazia, Georgia

4th Tank Division - 275th Self-propelled Artillery Regiment (elements), Naro-Fominsk

In addition, I've seen references to these units having conducted ops in Ukraine that may not be in the above list because they've since rotated out of the area:

31th Air Assault Brigade (Ulyanovsk)

10th Independent Spetsnaz Brigade (Molkino)

24th Independent Spetsnaz Brigade (Berdsk, Siberia)

22nd Independent Spetsnaz Brigade (Rostov region)

346th Independent Spetsnaz Brigade (formed recently in Solnechnogorsk)

32nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (Shilovo, Novosibirsk)

Most of the information above came from this website:

http://burkonews.info/identification-units-russian-armed-forces-deployed-fight-eastern-ukraine/#more-1622

This is an English translation of a group effort done on a Ukrainian website which has proven very reliable.

I had compiled my own (small) list and found nothing on my list that was missing from the above. I have links to some of the sources from my list.

Steve

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and if that factory hit is true.. well... never underestimate an enemy. It wont happen twice. That's also what happens when you try to be sneaky and you do not soften up an enemy with air power, missiles, long range modern arty and helicopters before going in ;) the enemy can also get lucky, remember that Scud hit during the first gulf war.

The Ukrainians suffered huge losses from an artillery strike back in August when they were surprised to find Russian Army Grads, on Russian soil, shelling them while they were lazily sleeping in a big field. They were not dug in at all. This was widely covered at the time and it was the beginning of Russia Army's obvious direct involvement. More strikes followed, many were documented. One was documented by Russians enjoying a nice swim and the videos were later removed. But the Internet is not so easily censored and they still exist :D

After this time the casualties in Ukrainian units due to artillery fire was dramatically reduced. They did learn the value of digging in!

from what I've been reading, most russians in Ukraine are fighting disguised as rebels with second rate equipement that could be not be traced 100% to RUssia, so that's not the real Russian Army there with all the bells and whistles.

Correct. I mentioned this in a post a few pages ago this is accurate for most Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. There is a lot of documentation, including from the soldiers themselves, about the uniforms, armaments, how they into Ukraine, etc. But there are also organized Russian Army units that are going into Ukraine as full units. Still, they are largely going into Ukraine in older vehicles with older weapons. Sometimes there's a piece or two or Ratna equipment found, but for the most part it's the older stuff.

This was widely covered at the time it happened. From what I remember this was the infamous 76th "Pskov" Division strike that caused such a problem for Russian authorities. It was the first concentrated battlefield losses that they were unable to totally hide. Several articles have been written about it including from survivors of the strike.

Steve

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