ukraine military vs russia

[Battlefront.com]

nice picture... RPG-28s at the front .. 1000mm armor penetration .. not in the game... unfortunately...

how can you prove it was taken in slaviansk ? not that I doubt it.. there has been a steady flow of modern weapons coming in. Remember, no such thing as an open reliable source in war.. especially this one ! and on both sides

It was witnessed by Western journalists and was laid out for inspection by them. I found them archived in our internal discussion July 5th (when Slavyansk was retaken). You can see the infamous steps of the Slavyansk government building to the left. Here is another set of pictures that show it more clearly:

There are other pictures, some of which you can see here:

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrainian-liveblog-day-138-pro-russian-separatists-reportedly-flee-slavyansk-leaving-prisoners/

Ukrainian forces found caches of weapons and ammunition in the area for weeks after retaining them. Sometimes they were found neatly organized and ready to use, sometimes they were hidden. I remember one Ukrainian diver coming up from a pond or river with a MANPAD that someone threw into the water.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

So in your opinion Steve what do you believe will happen over the next few years from a military action perspective?

No idea. Putin has been improvising since he failed to get "peace keepers" (or as they are jokingly called, "Piece Keepers" because they keep pieces of other countries ) into Ukraine during the Spring and early Summer. This means that Putin has been taking Russia "off script" from previous actions against neighboring countries. The reason I, and others, were able to predict Ukraine 2014 back in 2009 is because the script was largely followed from action to action. All we did was predict that it would be followed again with little to no change until NATO got involved (our story, of course, required us to make this huge leap in order to have a game!).

Because of all the improvising the best I've personally managed to do (with help from lots of people and sources) is predict general trends and cause/effect stuff to look for. This allows me to better recognize what's going on at the time, and have a good sense of the significance, but not predict how Russia will act. It all comes down to Russia since the separatists, left on their own, would collapse quickly.

An example of this are the comments of mine that I recently reread from late July and early August. As the Ukrainian offensive pushed forward I was able to see what Ukraine's overall goals were, but not really knowing where the separatists were going to hold or flee other than predicting key points the separatists couldn't afford to lose. It was because of this I started saying "this will be over in a couple of weeks unless Russia invades" a few days before I concluded that the Russian counter offensive had started (but before it really hit hard). But I never predicted, for sure, that Russia would counter attack or how exactly it would shape the attack. I simply predicted it was necessary to keep the war going and then recognized when it started.

My general prediction is we will see sporadic fighting for the rest of the winter and then in the Spring Ukraine will go on the offensive if there has been no political resolution before then. There is always a possibility of a political settlement, though I suspect that's not going to happen unless Russia tells the separatists they are *really* on their own.

The one big wildcard is how Russia views its options in the Spring. Russia's economic problems and the separatists' repeated demonstration of dependence on direct Russian military support, coupled with a realistic assessment of what Ukraine will be capable of in the Spring, might change the equation.

So that's all I got for you

Steve

[Hister]

Steve, what you got to say about wikipedia's day to day report about the war? Good enough or too far fetched?

[GAZ NZ]

Thanks for sharing that Steve.

I can see your logic and basis.

As for all the other posts disputing who did what.

Im in New Zealand.

I read multiple military forums and read NZ, US , RT and other alternative news websites.

With news these days it hard to really know whats going on. Even in NZ someone has there spin.

I find photos which are posted alot on military forums the best source of info myself.

Alot of military people know there stuff and share photos.

A picture paints a thousand words.

Photoshoped and bull**** pics are often clear to see.

There are alot of clued up people out there who can see fake pics and everyone seems to have a camera lol.

Those pics are clear to me.

With other sources checking into the plates you can generally trace or find out vehicle info and sometimes movements. So you can get into it more with intelligence assets.

Any way good work.

And i think before people are critical of your comments to remember you clever fellows predicted this or close to to make this game. And they should be critical of there sources....How accurate are they?

RTs full of spin on this subject

Shock force and syria is another great prediction.

Cheers

[LarsS]

There are no definitive sources of information, of course. What is for sure known is that the number has moved up and down dramatically since the conflict started.

From memory, in the very early days the initial wave of Russians and Russian organized Ukrainians seizing buildings and surrounding military bases was in the low thousands. Considering they were spread out over a vast amount of space, this is not a big number. They relied on the heavily corrupt Donetsk and Luhansk police to not respond. At the time there was plenty of evidence to suggest money was used for this purpose.

The number of forces went up dramatically after this period. I just looked around and found a statement from Girkin that said his force went from 350 to 4000 by June. The original Vostok was said to be 1000 by Khodakovsky, it's leader. Other forces probably brought the number up to 10-15000 at the time.

In late August NATO estimated that 1000 Russian Army forces were actively fighting in Ukraine, but that number has been all over the place. I think it is unlikely it was that low during the height of the counter attack in mid August.

Impossible to know how many "volunteers" moved over from Russia. In one day OSCE counted 600+ moving over the border, but they also saw a constant flow of fighters coming back over the border. Sometimes lightly wounded, often times not.

The numbers are likely lower now due to the bad weather and prolonged length of the conflict. I think it is very safe to say that whatever the size of the Russian military presence in Ukraine is today, it is far less than it was in mid August.

As for AFVs, Grad launchers, artillery pieces, etc... the number have been going up steadily. Safe to estimate several hundred armed vehicles minimum.

Reports in the last two days cited Russian 16th and 22th Special Forces Brigades were involved in a large attack on the Donetsk Airport. According to early reports, they were caught in a firetrap (indirect and direct fire) and suffered large numbers of casualties. Ukraine claims 110 KIA and about 38 WIA (about 1/2 were probably from Motorola or another unit). Reports state that many of the KIA were the result of WIA that were not evacuated before they died from blood loss or exposure to the cold. There are also reports that the fighting stopped only when senior Ukrainian and *Russian* officers appeared and secured a cease fire for the Russian KIA and WIA to be evacuated. We will have to see what comes of these reports, but I think the basic facts are likely accurate (even if the KIA/WIA count is perhaps inflated).

Steve

I appreciate the answer and the fact that you are willing to give estimates on the numbers involved. Most knowledgeable commentators I've encountered aren't -- which is perfectly understandable since it's so very easy to be wrong when the FoW lies as thick as it does over the eastern Ukraine.

[Battlefront.com]

Steve, what you got to say about wikipedia's day to day report about the war? Good enough or too far fetched?

From the times that I've scanned through the various Wiki sections, such as on Maidan and Crimea, as well as the fighting in eastern Ukraine, I found them reasonably good sources for getting a feel for it. Timing, who is involved, roughly what they contributed, key events, general outcomes, etc. are likely to be reasonably accurate. Where things get dicey are with details on any specific event or things which continually get edited out by partisan groups. For this you really do need a lot of other sources to fill in the gaps. Even then, there's going to be a large number of gaps and things you thought were true or false today might turn out to be false or true tomorrow.

I find photos which are posted alot on military forums the best source of info myself.

Alot of military people know there stuff and share photos.

A picture paints a thousand words.

Photoshoped and bull**** pics are often clear to see.

There are alot of clued up people out there who can see fake pics and everyone seems to have a camera lol.

Those pics are clear to me.

Now that the basic facts have been settled, I am seeing a lot less deliberate disinformation than I saw at the beginning. The Russian media and Putinbots were prolific at posting images from other wars and claiming them to be from Ukraine. Especially "atrocities" that Ukraine wasn't committing (funniest one was a picture of a civilian massacre which turned out to be from Chechnya during the 1st war ). Likewise, the Ukrainian sources were known to post pictures as proof of Russian involvement and either misidentify the equipment or (again) show pictures that weren't from eastern Ukraine. Making matters more complicated, Russians would post as Ukrainians to discredit Ukrainian reporting, Ukrainians would do the same to Russia. The difference here is that Russia had about a half Billion USD budget for the information and disinformation war, so it was rather lopsided.

Now that it's very clear that Ukraine is not murdering people and Russia is directly involved there's less incentive for them to post fake stuff. Russian media has ceased the most outrageous lies and is more-or-less back into routine information censorship and spin. Ukrainian bloggers have gotten better at not passing along bad information or at least knowing who does. So the quality of information, though still far from reliable, has gotten to be a lot better compared to when the crisis started.

And i think before people are critical of your comments to remember you clever fellows predicted this or close to to make this game.

The events in Ukraine have unfolded almost exactly as we predicted prior to anything happening. We either made a totally wild guess that turned out to be pretty much right, or we correctly analyzed Russia's past behavior and reasonably predicted how it would react if there was a change in power within Ukraine. And we predicted the change in power in Ukraine because we understand historical trends. The most basic one is that corruption and oppression are inherently unstable and unsustainable. The more that is artificially prolonged, the more dramatic the correction at some point down the road. It's the same logic (though very different in detail) I used to predict the housing bubble bursting about 6 years before it did. Which is why I didn't take a hit in the stock market or lose my house when it collapsed

First rule at predicting what is to come is paying attention to what has already happened. Sadly, most people don't have a clue what has happened and that means they can only be surprised by future events.

I appreciate the answer and the fact that you are willing to give estimates on the numbers involved. Most knowledgeable commentators I've encountered aren't -- which is perfectly understandable since it's so very easy to be wrong when the FoW lies as thick as it does over the eastern Ukraine.

Yup, it's really difficult to put down any sort of estimate. Mine are largely those of others who have made their own guesses, then I modify them a bit based on what I see going on at the time. It's extremely imperfect and very, very rough at best.

Steve

[akd]

nice picture... RPG-28s at the front .. 1000mm armor penetration .. not in the game... unfortunately...

how can you prove it was taken in slaviansk ? not that I doubt it.. there has been a steady flow of modern weapons coming in. Remember, no such thing as an open reliable source in war.. especially this one ! and on both sides

Pretty sure those are ATGM tubes.

Separatist road block outside Slaviansk in May:

[Battlefront.com]

Pretty sure those are ATGM tubes.

I'm not great at ID'ing tubes like that, but I'm sure many of them are AT tubes (AT-7/13?). IIRC Girkin had at least two AT-4 launchers pretty early on. They claimed they took the launchers from captured Ukrainian BMPs. True or not, they did have them early on. And based on how under equipped the Ukrainian forces were at the time, it is hard to imagine the separatists "capturing" all that stuff simply because it wasn't there to capture.

Steve

(heh... I see we cross posted some edits. Yeah, AT-7/13 is the likely candidate. For sure it's not ammo for AT rifles!)

[Battlefront.com]

Ukrainian reports about "brigades of Specnaz" attacking airport show that they have troubles there, nothing more. "Kiborgs" can't lose to that "vatnik" milita.

A convenient conclusion for you to make considering your position about Russian involvement. There have been reports of Russian special forces and FSB units engaged at the airport for months now, and yet the Ukrainians still hold it.

Fighting is continuing again today. Not surprisingly the cease fire from yesterday was extremely temporary. Ukrainian losses are said to be 3 KIA and 30-40 WIA. That seems reasonably proportional to the casualties suffered by the attackers (roughly 3 times higher) and the way the majority were caused (zeroed in artillery).

Here is one source for the report of fighting over the past few days. The source is Yuri Briukov, who is certainly in a position to have good information, but of course he is only passing along reports and not witnessing these things in person. And of course, as an activist civilian, his reporting is definitely one sided:

https://www.facebook.com/yuri.biriukov/posts/1526409304294548

A summary of other information shows that over a few days the separatists, backed by Russian special forces, made significant gains into the airport. Motorola was wounded for a third time, this time light shrapnel or splinters (no specifics), so it's pretty good guess that his forces are still the main force operating in the area. Anyway, they took the old terminal by storm and Ukrainian forces there either went underground or retreated to the new terminal. In either case Ukrainian artillery pounded the old terminal, partially collapsing it. Attempts to retrieve the wounded resulted in more casualties. The next day (yesterday) the Ukrainian and Russian officers showed up and got a temporary ceae fire to evacuate the KIA/WIA. Now that has been accomplished the fighting has resumed, including separatist grad fire. It is unclear if Ukraine has reoccupied the old terminal, though it appears that the separatists/Russians are no longer in possession of it.

This is a pretty typical event in the long saga of the airport battle. Roughly company sized attacks, sometimes directly supported by tanks (as was the case this time) and artillery, make some progress amongst the ruins. The Ukrainians counter attack with artillery, tanks, and infantry to retake lost ground.

Definitely good material for CM sized battles, but unfortunately I doubt the information scenario makers want will ever be known in detail.

Steve

[Lethaface]

A convenient conclusion for you to make considering your position about Russian involvement. There have been reports of Russian special forces and FSB units engaged at the airport for months now, and yet the Ukrainians still hold it. Steve

Not too hard to believe I would say. Special forces aren't that special anymore when fighting 'normally' on an established front and especially not very good at taking accurate incoming, just like the rest of us humans

[Battlefront.com]

Special Forces are also not immune to things like accurate artillery or shot out of the sky while on a mission. In my adult lifetime I know of two helicopters loaded with US Special Forces that were shot down, one by friendly fire. Intensive training and experience doesn't do you much good when you're thousands of feet in the air tangled up in a falling and burning helicopter

Using special forces as "shock infantry" is generally not a good idea. Especially when the defender is deeply dug in and expecting the attack. The US Special Forces learned that the hard way in Afghanistan in the Battle of Takur Ghar. 7 dead, 2 helicopters lost, one of their own tortured and executed, and not much to show for it. Definitely not enough to justify the losses.

Russia's other uses of special forces in Ukraine have shown very good results from what I can tell. The securing of the Crimean Parliament building in Simferopol was bloodless and a complete success. Though there was no armed opposition it could still have been botched. Securing the Simferopol airport was also a major success, and very important for what followed. Various actions around Crimea, including securing communications hubs and other important physical installations, were all done quickly and bloodlessly (as far as I remember) within an obviously highly coordinated and detailed operation to secure Crimea ahead of regular army and marine reinforcements. The results speak for themselves.

In eastern Ukraine Russian special forces have been suspected in a number of "hits" on separatist groups that refused to follow instructions. Most recently the attack last week on a Don Cossack group that I mentioned. It's unclear if the special forces unit suffered any casualties, but for sure the Cossacks did and the end result was apparently a success (i.e. the main road cleared of bandit Cossacks). That's the sort of stuff that you want special forces for. Go where needed, wherever needed, when needed, with a very specific mission, hit hard, get the job done, and get out before anybody even knows what happened. It is very hard for "normal" military units to do all of those things with a great deal of confidence ahead of time.

These are the things that special forces do and do better than any other type of military unit. Fighting their way into the teeth of an extremely competent and successful defender that has artillery registered everywhere... not such a good idea.

Steve

[DMS]

A convenient conclusion for you to make considering your position about Russian involvement.

I don't believe in stupid, senseless involvement. A different universe, really.

May be when you read that "reports" you think that author is a kind of a blogger or a journalist, who cares about reputation. If you would know language, you would see that "reports" are not serious and are emotional. It is not an information, it is a kind of a bravado, I don't know how to say in English. To encourage readers, to troll "wata", to show that you are a patriot and "ours guy".

I read "report" about 600 dead west mercenaries delievered from Borispol airport. Would you believe in it?

[Hister]

Thank you for the answer to my question Steve.

[sburke]

Definitely good material for CM sized battles, but unfortunately I doubt the information scenario makers want will ever be known in detail.

Steve

Except we can't go underground . . . . . yet

[Battlefront.com]

May be when you read that "reports" you think that author is a kind of a blogger or a journalist, who cares about reputation.

Sometimes that is the case, but often it is not.

If you would know language, you would see that "reports" are not serious and are emotional. It is not an information, it is a kind of a bravado, I don't know how to say in English. To encourage readers, to troll "wata", to show that you are a patriot and "ours guy".

Yes, a lot of stuff from both sides is exactly like this. And when I use translators for Russian and Ukrainian information it is pretty easy to see the emotion. Mostly because the translators make more errors, sometimes very funny ones, when people are "ranting" instead of presenting information calmly.

Having said that, it is a total mistake to dismiss such information without evaluating it. When doing research one should always separate the message from the messenger.

But more importantly it is necessary to use skill to examine the message. I am a trained and experienced researcher with 25+ years of education and professional experience. I am not perfect, but I can tell you that my experience makes me believe the average person couldn't research their way out of a paper bag if someone gave them a map, a flashlight, and enough supplies to last a week. Russian propaganda is totally dependent upon exploiting this failing of Humanity.

I read "report" about 600 dead west mercenaries delievered from Borispol airport. Would you believe in it?

No, for three reasons:

1. For each KIA there is about 3-4 WIA. For each casualty there should be at least 1 person that did not get hit. Minimum. That means if there are 600 dead western mercenaries there should be about 6,000 western mercenaries in total. Yet in 10 months of reporting I have seen examples of about a half dozen. In fact, I've seen more Chechens and Georgians fighting for Ukraine. Even though western and Russian journalists have had plenty of access to the frontlines.

2. The Kremlin pays people to make up stories like this. It has been a problem since before Yanukovych fled Ukraine, but it really started after. Totally invented stories about non-Ukrainians in Ukraine have been a common part of the Kremlin disinformation campaign since the earliest days. The early "Blackwater" and "Polish mercenaries" stories come to mind very quickly. The continued "Polish sniper" story, which you have repeated several times here, is another example.

3. There is no reason for me to believe the person making the report has connections to that sort of information. In fact, usually there is no indication there is anybody real making the report at all!

So no, this sort of report is not even remotely believable to me. Researchers often call this a "sniff test". Basically, if you are told you are smelling an apple pie, but it smells like something from a sewer, you can be pretty sure it's not an apple pie. At the very least you don't want to try eating it without a lot more information

Contrast this with Briukov's report of the fighting at the airport:

1. We know who he is and that he has extremely close ties with primary sources of information.

2. He has a pattern of publishing information and, from what I can tell, his information has proven to be reasonably accurate.

3. He is extremely critical of Ukrainian government and military competency, especially in the early days. He is certainly a "patriot", but he is not a "blind patriot".

4. There are other sources that state the same info. Some sources state the Russian casualties are even higher.

5. The physical evidence that Russian military are directly involved in Ukraine is massive. By now anybody that doubts this is discredited before a debate even starts.

6. There have been reports, including from the Ukrainian military, about the involvement of Russian military and internal security forces in direct fighting at the airport for many months now.

7. The majority of the deaths appear to have come from an artillery strike on the old terminal building. We know that Ukraine has repeatedly shown itself capable of hitting targets like this.

8. Known facts, such as an attack on the airport and the cease fire, are more widely reported and do not seem disputable.

Does this mean what he says is true or accurate? No. But it absolutely passes the "sniff test" and the circumstantial evidence supports the report's basic claim. On the contrary, I do not see any information to dispute this report except "I don't believe it". To me, as a researcher, that is not a good enough reason when there is no other reasons stated.

Another thing to consider is that the casualty numbers are not unbelievable given the details of the fight. Roughly speaking, Russian special forces and separatists (Motorola?) attacked with some supporting fire. They took the old terminal from the defending Ukrainian forces. Ukrainians hit the old terminal with a large amount of artillery and hurt the attackers badly. Attempts to reinforce and evacuate did not work because they were also hit by artillery. Overnight the temperatures were well below freezing and many of the wounded did not survive.

The attacker casualties were reported as roughly 50 KIA and 90 WIA, of which roughly 1/2 were separatists. Due to the cold weather and time delay for evacuation another 50 WIA became KIA. On the defending side they suffered as much as 40 WIA. Looking at simple statistics, these results seem believable given the other pieces of information. Anybody that has played Combat Mission should see that.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

For the record, I do not believe the Gruz-200 report of 4000+ Russian military KIA in Ukraine. The number is far too high. I might possibly believe 4000+ Russian citizens KIA/WIA/MIA/POW in Ukraine. That means about 750 KIA for mercenaries, real volunteers, "vacationers", and organized Russian military. For 10 months, that's about 400 casualties per month average. Given the fighting we know about, I still think that is too high. I think total casualties on the separatist/Russian side is about 4000, so Russian citizens would be a portion of that and organized Russian military a smaller portion of that.

Steve

[Lethaface]

But more importantly it is necessary to use skill to examine the message. I am a trained and experienced researcher with 25+ years of education and professional experience. I am not perfect, but I can tell you that my experience makes me believe the average person couldn't research their way out of a paper bag if someone gave them a map, a flashlight, and enough supplies to last a week. Russian propaganda is totally dependent upon exploiting this failing of Humanity.

Steve

This is my most important lesson in life. Growing up among researchers I have long felt that critical thinking was common sense. In fact I am still continuously learning how uncommon common sense actually is, it should be called uncommon sense :-D

[vincere]

The attacker casualties were reported as roughly 50 KIA and 90 WIA, of which roughly 1/2 were separatists. Due to the cold weather and time delay for evacuation another 50 WIA became KIA. On the defending side they suffered as much as 40 WIA. Looking at simple statistics, these results seem believable given the other pieces of information. Anybody that has played Combat Mission should see that.

Steve

After what I've read and followed on Vice news, and Motoral type videos and considering how skilled, entrenched and motivated the Ukranians are (I they are rather than may be motivated by fact of how long they've defended).... then those figures sound very plausible and credible.

[Macisle]

This is my most important lesson in life. Growing up among researchers I have long felt that critical thinking was common sense. In fact I am still continuously learning how uncommon common sense actually is, it should be called uncommon sense :-D

+1. As humans, our higher thinking skills tend serve the masters of emotion and identity. This is why leaders always have, and probably always will, be dishonest to varying degrees about most things. The percentage of the population that can divorce itself long enough from emotion and identity to objectively analyze something, embrace a course of action on it, and see that action carried through to its conclusion, is just too small in any given case to truly solve problems.

As an independent whose views are issue-dependent, run the spectrum, and always evolving as I learn more, it's been sad over the years to realize that friends and family, no matter how intelligent otherwise, are forever stuck in their "tribal zones."

I'm nowhere close to Steve's level, but I have noticed more than one once, how surprised people seemed to be at something happening that was so obvious, if they could just get past their need to see the world as they want to see it.

[Battlefront.com]

There is an emerging school of thought on Human decision making. Basically that sucks. People are more likely to base their conclusions on neatly packaged "answers" that most closely fit their already held views. It is a form of active apathy. They claim they want to be informed, but they would rather not have to work at it. The majority don't even care enough to be misinformed. To them most of the stuff that goes on around the world isn't their concern at all unless the media, politicians, their "tribe", etc. tell them they should be upset/concerned.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Back to the question of casualties so far. Here's the best info I've found that's fairly recent:

[ukrainian] Casualty count in Russia’s war against Ukraine, through Nov. 26

Civilians killed 4,317

Civilians wounded 9,921

Soldiers killed 1,184

Soldiers wounded 3,908

Displaced people from Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts and Crimea 472,605

Sources: Ukrainian Health Ministry, Defense Ministry Medical Service, Defence Ministry, United Nations, anti-terrorist operation spokesman Andriy Lysenko, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/at-least-1184-soldiers-killed-in-russias-war-against-ukraine-373390.html

There are reportedly another few hundred POWs that have yet to be exchanged for captured separatists/Russians.

For separatist and Russian casualties, it's a lot more difficult. The separatist "governments" can not be trusted because of who they are and how unlikely it is they know what's going on. The Russian government is pointless to think about since they denny that Russians are involved at all in any significant way. So Russia isn't even printing numbers that can be disbelieved... they aren't printing any numbers!

In July the separatists said they lost about 1000 dead in total:

http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.interpretermag.com/pro-russian-separatists-say-their-fighters-death-toll-has-reached-1000/&sa=U&ei=lPl_VN7WFMe1ggSH04CwBg&ved=0CDMQFjAF&sig2=Hh6l6B9dgb4csGXY5xdfFw&usg=AFQjCNGLST6AMivjbByzX8tdUTUu4VFMUA

This number is before the Poroshenko offensive really got going, so obviously the number must be much greater than that in total. I'd guess at least double. Russian casualties would be on top of this. I've seen reports of anywhere from a few hundred dead to several thousand. As I outlined earlier, it's definitely not in the thousands as far as I can tell. So maybe the total separatist/Russian casualties are about 2000 KIA, 6000 WIA minimum, perhaps 3000 KIA and 9000 WIA.

If we look at ratios, roughly speaking the Ukrainians have 2:1 force headcount advantage and 1:2 or 1:3 advantage in casualties. Those numbers and ratios look plausible to me.

Steve

[DMS]

This is the new type of war - post modern, in information and psychological areas. And the last are not less important then classical war. Social medias are field of that war. It is not WW2 radio that informs people, because if you not inform or missinform, they believe in horrible rumors. In WW2 enemy casualties could be overestimated in times - not intentionally. You can divide by 2 or 3 and get an estimate of true number. Now they don't need a real event, if media and social media power is enough.

Only real proof nowdays - photo and video. BTR-82 - true. T-72B3 - probably true, I believe to experts. "Vacationers" - probably true, as there are several credible sources (not from Ukr media, as they reported about "Russian army" since may, when they fought with 50 Strelkov's veterans and locals with SKS)

Although photos and videos can be fakes. For example, Ukrainians showed "Russian BMPs" with Russian documents since spring.

What about airport - militia tries to block supply routes now, they report about destroying AFVs that transport troops for rotation.

Numbers of enemy causalties, of course, are far from reality, as always, and should be divided by... I don't know. If German reports had to be divided by 4 (in case of air victories on Eastern front)... I think, that Ukrainians overestimate enemy losses more, than Germans.

[Battlefront.com]

This is the new type of war - post modern, in information and psychological areas. And the last are not less important then classical war. Social medias are field of that war. It is not WW2 radio that informs people, because if you not inform or missinform, they believe in horrible rumors. In WW2 enemy casualties could be overestimated in times - not intentionally. You can divide by 2 or 3 and get an estimate of true number. Now they don't need a real event, if media and social media power is enough.

Yes, the casualty counts are difficult. I will say that Ukraine's casualty counting of its own forces has been pretty good. Independent Ukrainian sources, which openly challenge Ukrainian government reports, are not too much higher than the official counts. Ukraine is a little slow to report casualties when things go badly, but eventually they do document them.

Only real proof nowdays - photo and video. BTR-82 - true. T-72B3 - probably true, I believe to experts. "Vacationers" - probably true, as there are several credible sources (not from Ukr media, as they reported about "Russian army" since may, when they fought with 50 Strelkov's veterans and locals with SKS)

And Russia said it didn't invade Crimea and now it said it isn't fighting in Ukraine. Which means Russia, as a source of information, has ZERO credibility. Nothing it says can be "taken at face value". That is not to say that everything Russia says is a lie, just that it must be presumed a lie until it is proven true.

Yes, early reports of "Russian Army" being in Ukraine were largely incorrect. There were Russian forces that also fought in Crimea present on Day 1, but these were the "self defense forces" and probably not explicit Russian Army. Of course there were plenty of Cossacks and Chechens in the very early days too, but again that was not Russian Army.

However, since then there's been so much evidence of Russian armed forces operating in Ukraine only someone willfully ignorant or in denial could not admit that it is true.

Although photos and videos can be fakes. For example, Ukrainians showed "Russian BMPs" with Russian documents since spring.

I've not seen any proof that Ukraine faked any information like this, though it would not surprise me. But with so many Russian military vehicles being documented crossing the border recently there is certainly no reason to fake the information now.

The most infamous documents came from the artillery strike on the 76th Pskov. Ukraine reported they hit a Russian military unit that had entered Ukraine, they fought their way to the positions and found loads of personal documents, rosters, and other proof that they belonged to 76th Pskov. Then they started researching the names on one of the rosters and found they were currently serving Russian Army soldiers. Then they discovered a number of them were dead. This included two fresh graves in Pskov that matched the roster.

On top of this journalists in Luhansk saw wounded Russian soldiers in a hospital. Journalists within Russia interviewed survivors of the artillery strike and family members of some that were dead or missing. A local politician was badly beaten up for asking questions about this and a BBC crew was also beaten up and their equipment destroyed when they attempted to conduct interviews.

So if this is not enough evidence to show you that Russia is actively sending its military units into Ukraine, then I suppose the only thing that will convince you is going there in person and seeing it?

What about airport - militia tries to block supply routes now, they report about destroying AFVs that transport troops for rotation.

Numbers of enemy causalties, of course, are far from reality, as always, and should be divided by... I don't know. If German reports had to be divided by 4 (in case of air victories on Eastern front)... I think, that Ukrainians overestimate enemy losses more, than Germans.

It is always difficult to estimate enemy losses when you do not gain ground and are able to count bodies. US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq have problems because by the time they clear the area the dead/wounded are gone.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Regarding losses and force sizes.

I just saw a Ukrainian military estimate that there are 34,200 separatist and Russian military forces operating in Ukraine right now.

http://news.liga.net/news/politics/4298578-zafiksirovano_rekordnoe_kolichestvo_obstrelov_sil_ato_sovbez.htm

As for the fighting in the airport, this interesting information was released today. Ukraine's military is saying that it has "obtained" Russian unit status reports which show which units have fought at the airport recently and how many casualties they took:

December 1st and 2nd the following units were involved (plus separatists):

16th Spetsnaz brigade, 200th spetsnaz brigade, 4th Gds Tank Bde, 2nd GRU special brigade, and elements of 106th Airborne Division were all involved.

According to the information Ukraine says it "obtained", these units suffered a total of 299 KIA, 190 WIA (96 seriously), and 171 MIA. That is roughly inline with previous estimates and those of Gruz-200.

Further, fighting at the end of November resulted in 198 KIA and 116 WIA, but units were not identified. Ukraine military says this backs up their claims that they killed a LOT of Russians in recent days. Ukraine says it has even more information from Russian sources but is not releasing it at this point.

http://inforesist.org/genshtab-perexvatil-otchety-voennyx-rf-o-krupnyx-poteryax-v-donecke/

Those predisposed to disbelieving Ukrainian information will not believe this information any more than any other information released. Unfortunately, since Russia refuses to admit that there are any Russian military units fighting in Ukraine there is lack of competing information to judge.

We'll have to see how accurate this information is, but personally I believe it is closer to the truth than not. I've not been disappointed with my guts and brains so far, which makes me comfortable making such statements.

Oh, and early in the Black Sea story development (probably 2011) I predicted that there would be increasing attacks in the Caucasus as Russia got more and more distracted by Ukraine. The ongoing terrorist attack in Grozny, I am sorry to say, is just the tip of that iceberg. Things are going to get much worse there in the coming months and years. I do not think that is a good thing for anybody.

Steve

[DMS]

By the way, it is surprising to me how key points like tough buildings are important. Dozens of tubes can't destroy that new and old terminal buildings. Militia had taken a building complex - they had to leave it in few hours, as walls collapsed. And most of modern buildings with glass walls are traps for infantry.

loads of personal documents, rosters, and other proof

Papers are easy to print. Or to steal a real ones. Or to buy. SBU are paid for something, right?

So if this is not enough evidence to show you that Russia is actively sending its military units into Ukraine, then I suppose the only thing that will convince you is going there in person and seeing it?

Well, I said that "vacationers" - probably true. If Ukrainians would say true, not lying about "Special force brigades" e.t.c., they would be 10 times more effective in propaganda. But they can't - bad habit since Maidan.