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1944 Bagration - AAR


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CARPATHIA & ROMANIA

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- Very quiet front in Romania as the Soviets retreated to reorganize north of Bucharest after failing to force their way towards the Capital. 26 corps immediately seized the chance to buy time for nearby 123 engineers and claimed back the valley entrance. It received support from 1rgt/45 & 1 bulgarian div to secure its retreat path once Russians counterattack.

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General der Infanterie Johannes Friessner commander of the Narva "army".

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- Thanks to various counterattacks well executed the loss of 41Pz is easier to accept. With 4 armies and 1 AT destroyed plus coming reinforcements OKH jumped back from a low ebb to reach 95 land units against 117 a net difference of 10 in one turn ! MPPs count wasn't bad either with 340 to 599 or a near parity over two turns (17,337 to 19,909 overall).

- Despite heavier losses than expected my plan to attack in Poland very soon is still on track. Soviet forces move as expected and Stavka's offensive assets are dispatched all over the front with artillery units in Romania, Hungary and Finland. Knowing the Kharkov tank group won't be in Poland any time soon is also a good thing as it will be easier to achieve local superiority.

- I'm a bit mad at myself about those two corps near Polotsk. They were supposed to join the fun but instead will have to fight for their lives. Not sure what Stalin is doing in Romania but there shouldn't be any surprise possible down there given the amount of tanks on other fronts.

- Speaking of that Russians ability to pop new tanks seemingly from nowhere is veeeeeery demoralizing :P . Each time I think that's it another one appears and makes a massacre. It's especially annoying when your panzer numbers are dwindling continously (by my own fault ok :D ). They are clearly trouble magnets as the Reds mob them each time they have a chance but maybe I'll be able to use that fact to my advantage at some point.

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Anyway time for some stat screens in CH10: Operation Aster (13-18 August 1944)

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  • 2 weeks later...

CH10: Operation Aster (13-18 August 1944)

- Time to pause a bit after two monthes of heavy fighting so let's take a look at the historical situation for 19 August at the end of operation Bagration. There are some similarities with our ongoing campaign though we lost less ground overall. The front is closer to Bucharest in the south but follow the Carpathian Mountains otherwise and is right on the hungarian border northwards. In Poland we own Warsaw, Radom and Krakow but also kept Brest-Litovsk and Bialystok in our hands though those are already on the frontline.

- The main difference is in the north where we still control Minsk which should have fallen one month and a half ago ! Most of soviet objectives in AGC area wern't captured with Kaunas, Vilna and Ovinsk safe while Polotsk, Vitebsk and Mogilev are now back under the despicable communist rule. However AGN had to retreat to avoid a complete collapse and Pskov was lost as well as Narva with Tallinn and Tartu about to be seized by Stalin. Finns had to evacuate Viipuri but are still in the war not a bad deal.

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- Now about what happened this turn: congratulations to Will for winning the "What will Stavka do next ?" contest : D . As you can see above Russians actually went north in Poland probably trying to bag AGC and AGN in one go. Ivans concentrated their efforts there against those two army groups with nearly no activity in the south. There is nothing left to stop the red rush in Estonia so Operation Aster was ordered calling for the evacuation of the Baltic States and by extension Bielorussia.

- However the pressure also extended to Finland giving a bleak (and mostly empty) picture of what was once seen as the strongest part of the eastern front. We hadn't that many units (7) destroyed since turn 5 and the end of the Kessel Battle but three of them were already considered lost (1 HQ & 2 GAR). That said 3 corps and one division out at this stage is still bad news leaving us at 92 units to 122 on land.

- Actually we even reached a low point at 88 before our beloved Fürher snapped again and ordered 4 volksturm corps to be raised out of nowhere (but even thin air has a cost as you can see below...). They will be deployed in the back to entrench in german cities and will be our last defensive line if the front crumbles (uh ? it already has ? : p). NB: their upgrade cost is equal to Axis allied corps meaning not cheap at all so no modern weapons for them as long as I can avoid it.

- Because you see Speer is a bit short on MPPs those days though he promised everything will be better very soon. For the second soviet turn in a row Ostheer lost more than Red Army at 897 to 682 (18234 to 20591 total). At this rate we're just digging our own grave but getting out of fortified positions to retreat has a cost. At least we avoided full encirclements and reduced as much as possible the casualties in experienced personnel...

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- OKH overall situation is quite clear below with its evolution from one month ago between the various army groups:

1) Finland's forces continue to slowly melt away unit by unit though they're still worth around 8% of all Axis forces.

2) AGN was gutted by losses and transfer of units losing half of its power and now below 10% of Ostheer total strength.

3) AGC maintained its combat abilities by sucking out most of available reserves but has clearly declined (below 25%).

4) AGNU becomes the main force as planned concentrating around 35% of our means and still rising.

5) AGSU hadn't much to do and was able to relatively increase its share near 25% with the same number of troops.

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Weeee what do I win? :P

How will AGN evacuate the northern states in time to prevent total encirclement- by train? But so expensive....

Any plans to build any Rocket units btw? I so rarely see them (read: never) in games against other players, I'm sorta wondering if they actually have a purpose as they come so late in the game that you're usually on the defensive by that point.

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Hi Will you gain the right to read the following part of the chapter. Happy :D ?

About AGN there isn't much left of it so that will be cheap :P . I "just" have to outrun Soviets and reach railroad tiles first. More about that below !

I had plans for rockets but no MPPs to spare. They are interesting for one thing: killing advanced soviet supply from afar without exposing Luftwaffe. Say they take one town that is their only supply source around and you keep it at 1/0 supply with rockets you have more chances to face and destroy red units in bad supply.

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BIELORUSSIA & BALTIC STATES

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- Well the picture around Minsk doesn't need much explanation I think as it's now or never to escape. The southern railroad to Baranavichy was cut by roaming 2G cavalry and partisans while a thrust by 31 army reached the last open one to Vilna. Manstein himself had to fire some shots to avoid a morale collapse from growing panick and restore order in the rear. He was clearly aware forces available there couldn't do a thing with 20 & 43 corps below 30% and 2 hungarian at 20%.

- Fortunately german hedgehog around the city is strong adn Soviets declined direct assault. They only sent two divisions (25 & 44G) to probe our lines while 51 army halted in front of 10 corps in the southeastern suburbs. 134div punished enemy 25div badly during one day of bitter fighting in the woods perhaps convincing red commanders to be more cautious than needed... Further north our isolated FBD 4 div was quickly submerged by 33G & 69div but several groups of men managed to escape to Postavy.

- Surprisingly Reinhardt's blunder at Polotsk didn't have any consequences as after taking an undefended Polotsk Bagramyan launched a frontal assault over the Dvina. Our 29 & 52 corps under the threat of an encirclement fared better under such conditions and though the 29 had to retreat the 52 stopped the Ivans (Mobile mech & 62 armies, 93 & 391div). Having Guderian in the back sure helped to motivate the men and his logistical skills were the key to maintain a narrow lifeline to supply them.

- Hansen wasn't that lucky as without 18th army to guard his left he was easily flanked. 16th army previous berserk charge in the masses of red infantry certainly saved 3rd panzer army but butcher's bill didn't wait. Maslennikov came down from Pskov with 3 armies (2S, 8 & 42) and obliterated 72 corps while Yeremenko erased 4 corps near Ludza (1S & 65 armies, 16div). Loch barely saved his skin but had to leave behind most of his HQ equipment only after sabotaging it of course !

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- Given the situation Manstein can't delay Minsk evacuation anymore and several units are immediately operated to Poland including 29 nebelwerfer. 134div os ordered to secure the railroad to Vilna by eliminating remanants of 25div still lurking in the woods north of the city. Other units fall back at full speed on a new temporary line behind the Neman safe for 10 & 43 corps plus 134div holding a defensive bridgehead east of the river.

- Due to geography and diverging retreat pathes 3rd panzer army is attached to AGN or what remains of it. It's the last organized army with combat ability in the area so it is badly needed to keep all the fragments from other units together. The Dvina line is evacuated with only speed bumps left behind at Postavy (207 & 371div) and Ovinsk (81, 93 & 300div). Now our one and only strategy is running faster than Russians with corps first and light units behind !

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FINLAND

Carl Gustaf Emil Mannerheim Marshal and (maybe) saviour of Finland.

Bitter figthing on the Salpa line.

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- And the disaster continues for Mannerheim with 5 corps wiped out west of Viipuri (7 army, 6 & 97div). Seems the poor Finns are at the end of the road and can't stop Govorov and his Leningrad front anymore. At least they didn't flee this time and fougth to death but it doesn't look like the Salpa Line will hold with demoralized and understrength units.

- 8 corps being the last force with some combat ability is ordered to reduce 97div bridgehead though to no avail. On the good side it bought enough time to unpack a late shipment of german weapons and reequip 10div in full. Plans for a new Kotka-Kouvola defensive line are discussed but there is a little problem: how to man it !

- On the other side of the Gulf it is the end for Friessner and his remaining braves from the Polizei div as they're scattered by a furious torrent of russian hordes. We can only hope the friendly population from Estonia will help them to reach safety by land or sea...

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  • 3 weeks later...

POLAND & HUNGARY

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- So in Poland our kind offer to grab an empty Siedlce (60 army) electing to push north instead. The Reserve tank group easily destroyed our weak screening force (340div) exposing Bialystok airfields. With 1 ukrainian tank following closely behind and 7G cav raiding Harpe's HQ OKH can be sure it is no diversion and AGC is the target.

- Further south attacks in Hungary (18 army) are weakening despite artillery support and the Reds didn't move forward from Jaroslaw. There are mostly divisions holding the front in that area leading german intelligence to believe enemy offensive capacity there is spent. Furthermore most of our deployment and preparations south of Warsaw remained hidden.

- It is clear for Guderian and Model there is no way to stick to the initial counterstrike plan. 4th panzer army can barely hold Brest-Litovsk already and taking the Ivans head on with its meager forces (5LW, 22, 52, 131 & 214div) is out of question. The northern pincer starting line is in shambles and won't be stabilized anytime soon leaving no ther choice than to trash it.

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- To avoid a disaster 2nd panzer army is shifted northwards and ordered to reoccupy Siedlce. It was supposed to show just enough activity to relieve pressure on Brest-Litovsk and AGC but 48Pz unexpectedly sent 60 army fleeing. It seems the probing attacks completely surprised the Reds as they panicked very quickly...

- After examining what was left behind on the battlefield it becomes clear enemy reserves are exhausted and supply is scarce. Further evidence is displayed when a risky aerial recon mission by the Luftwaffe revealed an empty Lublin barely guarded. Looks like there is nearly nothing between Radom and soviet primary logistical center !

- More scouting by 4LW AT recently arrived from Postavy by rail confirmed the only in the whole area was the 12 tank group. A new plan is drawing itself as data and reports keep pouring in telling a bewildered german high command they might have a chance for a decisive strike after all if they have the time to seize it that is...

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CARPATHIA & ROMANIA

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- Once again very quiet all along the front safe for an expected soviet counterattack to recapture the ground lost last turn. Our heroic 26 corps fought well facing masses of enemy units (27, 52 & 53 armies, 62G, 30 & 85div) with rocket artillery support but had to retreat to avoid destruction.

- Thus the Ivans retook the northern half of the valley leading to Bucharest but were stopped again by our fortifications held by 1rgt/45div. A regiment of Bulgarians also distinguished itself by repelling a flanking attempt through the ridges on the eastern side losing 40% of its men.

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COMMENTS

Guderian's amended counterattack plan.

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- Though the soviet move around Brest-Litovsk now seems obvious I never actually considered it because of my own plans to withdraw AGC anyway. Looks like Stavka hoped to bag the whole of Manstein's forces in one go as well as retreating AGN maybe with a following move on Koenigsberg. The other reason I discarded it was because of supply constraints in the area: unless the Reds control the fortress they would have dangerously exposed and overextended logistical lines.

- Of course that made our first offensive draft irrelevant and changes had to me made. You can see below the main idea given what we grasped from the evolving situation. The previous northern pincer with 4th panzer army is more or less disbanded being stripped of all its heavy equipment and only remains as a hollow shell to fool soviet intelligence. Every available vehicle will go to 1st and 2nd panzer army for a concentrated strike at the weakest point right in the middle of enemy lines.

- 2nd army will fall back around Bialystock and try to divert forces from our critical Festung. 17th army will remain as it is keeping guard on the bug and providing infantry reserves to support panzers. 16th army will be reinforced to full strength while shifting south to cover the flank of our offensive. It will replace 1st panzer army around Radom and in front of Jaroslaw. Most of our mobile forces will be concealed in the woods south and west of Siedlce as well as troops railroaded from the north.

- That said we will still go for a giant encirclement though the primary objective will be to cut supply of advancing Soviets by taking Lublin. That would leave no less than 1 HQ, 3 tank groups and 3 armies stranded in the open with nowhere to hide or run. Such a heavy blow to Stalin would clearly change the whole situation in the East to our advantage. However we're still short on time as planned reinforcements will arrive one turn late and Soviets won't let the striking window open for long...

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Casualties over a month since the Kessel battle.

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- Here you can see that over five turns or a month of heavy fighting german losses in units are surprisingly low being nearly at soviet level. More infantry and HQs out but most of them in good supply while Stavka lost many specialized units with 1:3 ratio for planes and 1:2 for tanks. The gap is still increasing but +3 at 49 to 40 isn't much of concern though the total count of 93 to 121 units on land or a 3:4 ratio isn't that great either.

- The MPPs overview shows clearly we managed to slow down the bleeding on our turns without a single one above 400 and only two russian ones above 1,000. Overall casualties were also halved from 12,035 to 6,299 but we failed to keep Stalin losing strength after a good start of 2,968 MPPs lost to 4,491 over 3 turns. The last two was more of a mutual butchery than anything else with no difference at all despite clever maneuvering (ahem...).

- All in all OKH succeeded in trading ground for time as the MPPs gap increased a bit in our favor from +1,099 to +1,557. Sadly that's nowhere near enough to truly hurt the Red Bear as we're just keeping him in check as it is. That's why the planned operation in Poland is decisive as Ostheer probably won't have any other chance in such "good" conditions nor the means to exploit it fully. Well enough numbers and more drawings with ingame MPPs screens below.

- I think everyone can spot the pattern here : p ? After Bagration starting shock it was always the same with german offensives scoring early victories before ending because of unsustainable casualties. On the other side and safe for a peak thanks to Guderian's "Das Schlag" Soviets were able to replace most of their losses in August. Since start they were able to invest twice more MPPs in units than us with nearly 100% efficiency (8,058 for 8,970 produced against 3,805 for 5,877).

- Then it's a 1:5 ratio for Germany between investments in units and overall losses while Russians stand at 1:2,5. Anyone understands why Hitler's in trouble : D ? Once again that explains why we can't let the chance slip out in Poland. If that works we'll have a shot at defending Warsaw and aiming for a draw. If it fails our glorious Führer will have a shot at his own head...

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So brace yourselves for new heights of carnage in CH11: Guderian Strikes Back (19-24 August 1944)

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Nice AAR.

You are a bit obsessive with MPP statistics, but on the other hand, MPP is the most important single aspect of the game.

One small nitpick:

In German, its not "Das Schlag", but "Der Schlag".

But its "Das Strafgericht" (judgement day), in case you need another fancy codename for an operation ;-)

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No need to apologize.

German language has a lot of difficult and silly grammar rules and exceptions, making it hard for foreigners to get it right.

Anyone who ever heard a German speak English with this cruel German accent knows the Germans dont do any better if they themselves have to speak a foreign language.

"Muller, GesTTTapo. TTTTis nottt allowttt. You are arrestttett."

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  • 4 weeks later...

CH11: Guderian Strikes Back (19-24 August 1944)

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Bad news all over this turn even from outside the map as we lose the "Gai Paris" to US Brutes :D . Von Choltitz refused to burn the city to the ground as ordered by the Führer but we certainly won't fail to destroy Warsaw if needed ! The front more or less disintegrated in the north though our quick retreat reduced losses to only 4 small units already in bad shape. Main soviet operation was the encirclement of Brest-Litovsk in the center.

Land units: 89 to 121

MPPs lost: 344 to 561

MPPs total: 18,678 to 21,452

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German historical counter in Poland and overall situation ingame.

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BIELORUSSIA & BALTIC STATES

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- The last link between Brest-Litovsk and the Reich along the Vilna railroad was severed quickly. Hordes of Russians (Reserve tank, 7G cav, 1 polish, 40 & 70 armies, 328 & 336div) just rolled over our weak 52 security div but increasing supply problems and an heroic defense by 267div prevented further gains.

- Our positions on the Neman further north are still strong and only face lesser units but Manstein knows tanks are lurking in the rear. With pressure reaching dangerous levels on his southern flank he's glad to have most of his units ready to evacuate by rail.

- However the light screen (207 & 371div) established around Postavy didn't last long and was pulverized by a concentration of mobile red troops (1 belorussian tank, Moscow and Mobile mech, 11G & 31 armies).

- But thanks to their sacrifice most of our forces were able to reach the trains waiting to send them in Poland. Sadly Loch our hero from the Velikaya was trailing too far behind after covering the retreat of his men and was caught by advancing 42 army...

- Guderian probably still has enough men to regroup and defend the Riga-Kaunas line but he has other plans ! Order is given to evacuate all AGN & AGC units and leave Bielorussia and the Baltic States behind with only skeleton crews remaining in key locations.

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FINLAND

The HNLMS Gelderland, built for the Royal Netherlands Navy, seized by the Germans in 1940 and re-named the "Niobe".

Sunk by Soviet bombers in Kotka harbor, on July 16, 1944.

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- Mannerheim managed to stop the Russians on the Salpa line at last ! Or more exactly the enemy decided to pause and regroup before renewing his assaults... Some reinforcements arrived to replenish frontline units but not many.

- Reduced units were sent in the back to prepare a second defensive line between Kouvola and Kotka. A small naval german force tried to disrupt soviet preparations but took casualties from air attacks instead.

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Red artillery pounding Lappeenranta railway station.

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POLAND & HUNGARY

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- Very quiet in Hungary but a lot of action in Poland ! The situation worsened faster than expected and truth to be told we're short two turns for a full scale offensive. Guderian and his trains are coming back full speed but are still somewhere in Eastern Prussia.

- Fortunately it seems Stavka have no idea what's going on around Warsaw and politely declined our offer to battle with panzers for Siedlce. Actually enemy forces in the area dod nothing at all happy with safeguarding the eastern flank of the Brest-Litovsk encirclement.

- An argument opposed Hansen and Roman about attacking at once or not the first being quite sure the chance was now or never. From his experience after the battles of Opochka and Ludza festungen letting Russians reinforce and build supply isn't an option.

- On his side Roman thinks the Brest festung (elite 131div) can hold longer and it's better to wait for scheduled reinforcements. Ostheer only has one chance and should strike with all its might to break soviet advance in Poland.

- What's clear is the conditions are nearly perfect for a counterattack with a wide gap in enemy lines already open. Russians also have thin supply lines while german have Warsaw to feed the fight.

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- The dispute would have terrible consequences as the "compromise" they reached led to one of the worst mistake of the war. Tasked with the first and most critical move of Guderian's plan the 1st division was supposed to recon the way to Lublin.

- However unsure of what his commanders had in mind General der Infanterie Ernst-Anton von Krosigk was too cautious. Though there was no opposition at all for miles he decided to stop and wait for aerial support upon reaching the town.

- When the recon planes realized the whole area was empty with no defense at all it was already too late... Alerted Soviets were rushing any able man around to defend the supply depots including all pilots from nearby air bases.

- Lublin was the only logistical center for two whole fronts including 3 tank groups, 7 armies and 4 divisions plus one artillery and 2 AT units. Taking it without firing a single shot would have been a decisive victory no doubt !

- The missed chance infuriated Hansen and he discarded all Roman objections to order a full scale assault. With Stavka still in the dark about the offensive true scale surprise could still be achieved and a victory gained.

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- With their primary objective out of reach 1st panzer army switched to the secondary and more difficult one: Konev's HQ. The first push unfolded like a dream with 12 tank group flattened by veteran crews of 56Pz & 9 AT. The shock was such it even halved nearby 1G army sending it fleeing in terror for miles.

- That complete collapse of the enemy left flank meant Hansen's intended target was wide open. Sadly and once again Ostheer fumbled at the decisive moment and unleashed 48Pz inexplicably failed to destroy the unprotected command center.

- Konev's desperate defense cost Germans horrendeous casualties. Staff officers were seen throwing themselves at panzers with land mines strapped on their chests. In the end only a few survived but supply to forward units though limited was maintained.

- However just when Hansen started to believe it was over and his gamble ended in an ignominous failure Guderian arrived to save the day ! No less than 10 corps including 2 panzers began to pour in from dozens of trains flooding the frontline and giving a new life to his ailing offensive. But is it too late ? Is victory still possible with those numerous but battered units ?

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COMMENTS

General der Infanterie Ernst-Anton von Krosigk commander of 1st division.

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Land units: 91 to 120

MPPs lost: 506 to 674

MPPs total: 19,184 to 22,126

- What a turn ! Starting with the near complete collapse of the northern front and the encirclement of Brest-Litovsk then followed by hard decisions for Germans about attacking or not. And after deciding to go for it with everything at hand failing twice to reach critical objectives by the smallest margin was an excruciating feeling.

- What's incredible is it seems like it was a major battle but MPPs losses are actually quite low. With their reinforcements arriving in the nick of time Germans could have wiped out the whole polish front in 0 supply with just a bit more luck (or less stupidity I agree : p).

- Russians are in bad shape but can still react and worse they can operate freely around Lublin. Despite that they probbaly have no idea (yet) how strong german forces are now. If Brest can hold one more turn maybe there is still a chance to achieve something big but I'm afraid at least one more panzer will be lost in the process : ( .

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  • 10 months later...

Oops sorry fot that seems I forgot to tell game was over and I was too short on time to continue the AAR !

I'll try to give at least give a quick summary of events with some pics after above fight in Poland.

Well I more or less learned the bad and good things to do an AAR so it wasn't a complete failure :P .

 

EDIT: here is the first part about Finland

 

FINLAND

Nearly crumbled with 8th corps destroyed at Lappeenranta and Finns pushed back on a Kouvola-Kotka line at the end of August.
Kouvola had to be evacuated quickly only two weeks later followed by Kotka as no reinforcements were available due to russian pressure on the Reich's borders.
Then starting October Mannerheim was forced to fall back again towards his last defensive line before Helsinki (Lahti-Lovisa south of Lake Päijänne).
At that point bad weather came in and helped to hold the narrow front but Soviets attacks also slowed down and even stopped due to what happened in Poland.

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Edited by Strategiclayabout
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BALTIC STATES-BELARUS

Nothing much happened there with Germans mostly trying to gain some time while evacuating to the Reich in early September.
Most of the delaying units concentrated around Kaunas Vilna & Bialystok and were able to leave hell in good order despite heavy pressure.
Sadly 22nd security division wasn't mobile enough to keep the pace and was left behind to die at Baranavichy.
In the end Russians captured Riga with ease despite Marinov's last stand and reached Eastern Prussia in two weeks.

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Still there was some kind of twist as Hitler ordered to move all (depleted) panzer reserves to the area.

The idea was to use Koenigsberg as a bait and launch a major counterstrike against unsupplied pursuing Russians.

Actually it never happened as Soviets stopped short of the city for vaious reasons and Panzerwaffe was sent back to Warsaw.

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Edited by Strategiclayabout
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HUNGARY-CARPATHIA

Very quiet area for a long time with Reds limiting themselves to probing defense here and there for several monthes.
One division sneaked through the mountains towards Budapest but was ignored since it was out of supply.
The surprise came on 16th December with heavy tank attacks around Targu Orcna followed by massive paradrops in the rear.
Fortunately snow came in just between and some unusal troop movements had alerted Germans beforehand.
Mountain passes were held and panzer reserves ultimately massacred red paratroops though they survived for more than a month.
Overall result was a clear victory for Germans as other fronts wern't threatened by the shift of numerous mobile troops.

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ROMANIA-CARPATHIA

Static front for monthes though there was a low but constant pressure on Bucharest situation never became critical which was quite the surprise.
After several botched attempts to take down Romanians by opening a path to their capital evil communists tried some kind of a "pincer" move near mid-September.
The left wing threatened Constanta for a while but wasn't strong enough to keep pushing and only minor german help was needed to stop that offensive.
Further north red divisions were able to cross an undefended mountain range but supply couldn't follow and they fell short of flanking Targu Orcna.  
At the end of October Stavka decided to commit enough forces to actually reach its objective there but only after two weeks of vicious fighting.
However it was unable to apply any kind of pressure along other parts of the romanian front and all attacks slowly died.
One last effort was made in February to turn the tables with tanks getting some action around Galati and Constanta but to no avail due to the lack of support.

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Edited by Strategiclayabout
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