Incredible Footage

[agusto]

What about Syrias chemical weapons? If it turns out they could fall into the hands of radical clericals or terrorists (like the regime loses control of the country and a new goverment isnt yet established so there is a power vacuum), couldnt that result in a US/western intervention? I have to admit that i didnt follow the conflict much in the past months, but if i remember correctly there was discussion about that.

[agusto]

More footage that you might find interesting:

SAA T-72 hit by several RPGs. Second T-72 attempts to tow it to safety.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c56_1363981215

Another video purporting to show an opposition tank taking out an SAA tank. This time a T-55 (Thanks for the tank ID tips Vanir Ausf .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=EmXFEUbv9yI

2nd video: that tank crew is ridicolusly unprofessional: scores a hit and immideatly jumps out of the tank, throwing their hands in the air and cheering .

[Erwin]

Didn't see the video, but it was probably the first hit they had in weeks.

[LongLeftFlank]

In my oppinion we are not likely to see Syria split into two countries. The current behaviour of the regime would indicate that they are playing an all or nothing game. Erwin talked about the regime's determination to deny the rebels any cities. I believe that the regime is concerned that the loss of a major city in its entirety to the rebels would result in increased international recognition for the opposition. Were Aleppo to fall to the rebels for example, it is likely that it would become a seat of governance for the opposition and a kind of rival capital city just as Benghazi did in Libya. This could result in more countries recognising the opposition as the legitimate government, potentially removing any legal barriers to direct military intervention by foreign powers at their behest.

As Assad's regime increasingly loses controll, it may well decamp to the coast, just as Ghadaffi fled to his stronghold of Sirte. However, I think this would only be done as an act of desperation. By the time that occurs, the Syrian Army will likely have been left in tatters. The Syrian Air Force would be forced to leave whatever bases they still retain at that time behind. Huge stock piles of equipment and ammunition would be left in the hands of the rebels (it is unlikely that the SAA would be able to transport or destroy a significant amount of materiel, even if they have already begun doing so, especially when the logistical problems which they are already facing are considered. I doubt that a coastal 'rump' Syria would be able to hold out in the long term. From what I've read, the rebels have already infiltrated beyond the mountain ranges into Latakia and Tartus.

Interesting points, but I don't buy the Libya comparison. There is no sign of foreign intervention which would create the kind of rout of regime forces you describe; so they have plenty of time for an orderly evacuation of essential equipment to the coast. They've already purged most of the unreliable Sunnis out of the army, and those who remain are mortally afraid of rebel retribution for their many war crimes. The Assads can't bring the entire loyalist population and all their families along into exile to where? (Tehran or Moscow I guess). Ergo, they will consider a defensible separate state their best option. This is not risk-free, but IMHO their foreign supporters plus Western indifference / dislike of the Sunni Islamists will make that division accomplished fact over time. Just my opinion.

"All or nothing" makes a great slogan, but there is simply no way in my view that the Assads/Alawites will win this civil war ("All"), still less reconcile with any of the Sunni opposition. That door is closed and the longer the war goes on, the fewer moderates remain. And as this becomes clear, I find it impossible to believe the well-armed Loyalists will meekly shrug and say "Nothing" (i.e. ethnic cleansing and dismal exile, following the Palestinians)

The only thing that will hold the country together now within its current (postcolonial) boundaries is a foreign occupation. And again IMHO, that simply ain't gonna happen unless the regime begins gassing cities en masse or sumfink. Which I suppose is conceivable but unlikely. Nobody wants to implement the Powell doctrine in Syria. It's not like anyone there will be grateful for more than about 6 weeks, if that long. The West is Crusaded out; only an Arab-Israeli war will bring them back in on the ground. Again, one man's view.

PS. There was an independent 'Alawite Republic' in the coastal zone for a period between the collapse of Ottoman rule and the French "it isn't really a colony, it's a 'mandate' or umm 'protectorate' or something" arrival. Too lazy to wiki the details right now.

[George MC]

HD version video and shows shooters POV of Syrian armour being taken under fire from RPG to deadly effect.

[agusto]

Asymetrical warfare in Syria, seen from Al-Nusrahs perspective:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a24_1359578798

The 1080 HD video documents:

1) target reconnaissance (SAA Base)

2) assembly of a vehicle born IED

3) "mission briefing" (or possibly just propaganda. i dont speak arab, cant tell)

4) execution of the operation (3 different cameras)

EDIT: Non-HD version for those of you with slow internet connections:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b38_1357593611

[Seedorf81]

I wish I had the music-rights of this "allahoeahkbar"-phrase they endlessly keep on chanting in these vids.

[Nidan1]

I wish I had the music-rights of this "allahoeahkbar"-phrase they endlessly keep on chanting in these vids.

Interesting how tolerant we are of these rebel fighters invoking the greatness of God every time they destroy a vehicle or kill SAA soldiers.

I remember not so long ago how folks in these forums got all over American soldiers and Marines for hooting and cheering after destroying Iraqi positions shown in videos during the second Iraq war.

The stresses of combat certainly affect people in different ways.

[Saferight]

interesting way to use a DShK, dude in black gets a little too close to the muzzle flash at the end. Also note the Yugoslav M-60 recoiless rifle in background. Seems like a lot of weapons from Croatia are making their way to the rebels hands....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6I5652BL2g&feature=player_embedded

edit: guy in black actually puts a pillow on the muzzle ?????

[black_prince]

2nd video: that tank crew is ridicolusly unprofessional: scores a hit and immideatly jumps out of the tank, throwing their hands in the air and cheering .

Pretty much my reaction when I destroy enemy armour in CM!

LLF: I take your point, the war in Syria is a very different situation to the one in Libya with a great many more complicating domestic and international factors. True, there is very little sign of direct foreign military intervention at this time. However, it is still a possibility that Assad must guard against.

Regardless, I didn't mean to imply that the SAA would be left in tatters as the result of some foreign military intervention. The brutal and unrelenting war of attrition in which they are involved will probably be sufficient to achieve that given enough time. I remain convinced that by the time Assad and co decide to head to the sea side, the war will already have been lost and they won't be able to hold out in Latakia and Tartus for long. Moreover, I''m very skeptical that an orderly withdrawal will be possible. AFAIK, a withdrawal is one of the riskier, more difficult types of operation. The SAA still has forces scattered about all over the place. Any large scale withdrawal would only be further complicated by a simultaneous exodus of Alawite civilians. It would also probably mean abandoning much of the air force as I doubt that those two provinces have the infrastructure to support it. Moving ballistic missiles and chemical weapons could also provoke an Israeli airstrike.

In summary, I still think that a withdrawal to a coastal enclave is probably a strategy so risky that by the time it is implemented, it will be too late for it to be successful.

[Seedorf81]

interesting way to use a DShK, dude in black gets a little too close to the muzzle flash at the end. Also note the Yugoslav M-60 recoiless rifle in background. Seems like a lot of weapons from Croatia are making their way to the rebels hands....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6I5652BL2g&feature=player_embedded

edit: guy in black actually puts a pillow on the muzzle ?????

Muzzleflash bounces off the wall, to hot for gunner, hence the pillow. Though not a real clever solution, by the look of things.

[akd]

Another video of dudes firing a recoilless rifle from a building:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJHyM7Rgs_g

[LongLeftFlank]

Interesting how tolerant we are of these rebel fighters invoking the greatness of God every time they destroy a vehicle or kill SAA soldiers.

I remember not so long ago how folks in these forums got all over American soldiers and Marines for hooting and cheering after destroying Iraqi positions shown in videos during the second Iraq war.

The stresses of combat certainly affect people in different ways.

Well, keep in mind that for Muslims, the takbir isn't only a battle cry or an exultation of bloodshed, even though we infidels associate it with that (and it can certainly be intended that way). It is also used both in celebration (football matches, weddings) and as an anxious benison against evil, a la "Hail Mary, full of grace").

Black Prince: no arguments there. Time will tell.

[Saferight]

@seedorf guy had to be seeing stars for awhile...

some footage from the fighters of ahrar al-sham. interesting things done using a level to aim a rifle grenade from fn-fal. few shots of them using more Yugoslav weapons m79 osa's rgb-6 mgl's. at the end they use sacks from the nearby farms im guessing to reach the 2nd floor of a building to engange the SAA defenders on the roof. stairs probably blocked.

[Vanir Ausf B]

Another video of dudes firing a recoilless rifle from a building:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJHyM7Rgs_g

It appears that someone forgot to tell the rebels that they are not allowed to shoot those things from inside buildings.

Backing-up fail at 1:11

I wonder if it is the same tank hit both times, or 2 different tanks (or the same tank on different occasions). I assume the tank survived both hits or they would have shown the aftermath.

[Nidan1]

Well, keep in mind that for Muslims, the takbir isn't only a battle cry or an exultation of bloodshed, even though we infidels associate it with that (and it can certainly be intended that way). It is also used both in celebration (football matches, weddings) and as an anxious benison against evil, a la "Hail Mary, full of grace").

That is my point LLF, when our guys cheer they are immature and bloodthirsty. When the Jihadists cheer, we call ourselves infidels and make excuses for them.

It just seems odd to me.

[Saferight]

That is my point LLF, when our guys cheer they are immature and bloodthirsty. When the Jihadists cheer, we call ourselves infidels and make excuses for them.

It just seems odd to me.

HUH? :confused:

[Nidan1]

HUH? :confused:

What don't you understand, my friend?

[agusto]

That is my point LLF, when our guys cheer they are immature and bloodthirsty. When the Jihadists cheer, we call ourselves infidels and make excuses for them.

The Jihadists are already having that bad-guys image so if they act "bloodthirsty", if you will, that is just what people expect. "Your guys" on the other hand are supposed to behave like the good guys, so cheering about a kill (wich can be interpreted as expressing enjoyment about the loss of human live) may be offensive to some.

[LongLeftFlank]

Read literally in translation, the Holy Qu'ran does seem to leave little room for doubt or interpretation. Man is sinful, proud and avaricious; he has rebelled against his One True God. He is perforce consigned to flames of hell unless he Submits (Islam) to the true word of God, as expressed by the Prophets, especially Mohammed (pbuh).... As interpreted by the Prophet himself (hadith) and by numerous scholars and imams for 1500 years since -- reread that last bit, it's important.

The universe is divided into Dar al Islam and Dar al Harb ("the domain of war"), and it is the sacred duty of every Muslim to bring God's true religion to every corner of the world. There is no command laid on the faithful to honour any promise or contract with the unbelievers, or indeed, to spare their lives: "When you encounter the infidels, strike off their heads." Sharif don't like it, blah blah blah.

Hmm, so it seems that Muslims are divinely commanded to be fanatical, intolerant, murderous, insistently proselytising bigots. Not much leeway for interpretation.

Except for that 1300 years of Islamic jurisprudence that short-circuits the fundamentalist line, saying that only he who is without sin may rightfully cast the first stone of holy war or claim the rewards of martyrdom. So "jihad" is in practice a 24x7 struggle to remain just, humble and charitable toward one's neighbour, whomever he be. Does that allow a clean path to reconciling a traditional Muslim life with living a conflict-free life side by side with nonbelievers in a secular world that permits ceasing to believe, blasphemy, Internet porn and your own son to legally marry another dude in direct contravention of God's word? Hardly, but there is precisely no religion whose adherents do not feel "under attack" by the above right now.

I have little patience for those who unceasingly blame our own (Western) civilization for the world's ills and injustices while eagerly making excuses for ignorant fanatics and mass murderers, be they Salafists, Communists or Falangists. But I also see no reason to tar 1.5 billion Muslims as terrorists or fifth columnists, especially when they form the vast majority of victims of their own fanatics.

[Alan8325]

But unlike Alan and some others here I simply don't see the Assads outlasting (or ha! coming to terms with) the resistance and holding the entire country, even if the war drags on for another year or more. But even if the Assads fled, they couldn't take 2 million non-Sunni Syrians along with them. I have simply lost faith in the ability of these populations to live together under a single regime at this point, given their respective leaderships. Even though they've lived together since the Prophet's Companions kicked out the Byzantines, the old social contract is broken -- by the stupidity and greed of the Assads, and the Sunni extremists they've empowered through their actions aren't inclined to put it back together. It's basically Yugoslavia redux. Only the US could reimpose an (unstable) single state solution, by basically repeating the Iraq counterinsurgency. And the chances of that happening are _______.

I also suspect that the IED (roadside bomb) war is well underway in the rural areas between the cities and that the Syrian army is rapidly losing its ability to resupply and shift large (and politically reliable) mech forces among hotspots. That same kind of hit and run war nearly paralyzed the vastly more capable US force in Anbar.

Guys, the rebels don't have to destroy the regime's tank divisions in head-to-head combat to win. They just need to keep bleeding them dry one IED or sniper shot at a time. Local regime outposts may already be reaching informal truces with the rebels -- if the Assads can't stop that happening that's the beginning of the end for them.

Nonetheless, the coastal area remains a relatively safe haven for them. And btw, I misnamed the Antitaurus mountains guarding the coast (they're in Turkey). It's the Nusariyah escarpment, an extension of the Anti-Lebanon range. And it is a hell of a lot more defensible from the west than from the east.

I didn't say that I think Assad will hold the entire country. His loyalists are far too spread out for that. I'm saying that I agree that he will pull back to the more Alawite areas and from there he will be much more difficult to dislodge because the Sunnis will NOT be able to easily use IEDs and snipers to bleed his forces dry in areas where there is more support for Assad's forces than for the insurgency. Maybe I'm overestimating Alawite support for Assad, but I tend to think that even long-term use of insurgent tactics by Sunnis won't force a large number of people, Alawites, Christians, Kurds, etc. to accept a perceived future of Sharia Law.

[Alan8325]

Also, even if Assad is soundly defeated and the Alawites effectively surrender by discontinuing the fight, I predict widespread infighting between rebel factions. The more Islamist factions backed by Turkey and Qatar will be at odds with the more moderate ones backed by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Europe and the United States. A united Sunni government would be ruled by either one or the other, but it will probably be Muslim Brotherhood dominated with Al Nusra as an ally. If the initial Sunni govenment were moderate, it would probably either be in all out combat with the Islamist factions until the Islamist prevail (again, unless the West steps in), or lose to the Islamists during later elections.

Once there is a Sunni Islamist government in Syria, Shiite-dominated Iraq will become a new rival as well.

[Schmoly War]

Syria - Strengthening the protection of SAA tanks in Darayya 26/3

WW2 fashion is back.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlQOmODmsec

[Erwin]

That tank looked like it was from a movie about some post-apocalyptic world like Mel Gibson's Road Warrior series.

[agusto]

Description as found at liveleak:

"FSA film two SAA T-72 tanks in action - I see 3 rpg hits on first tank: 0:32, 1:50, 4:46. Engine and hydraulic failure - second tank tows it back, and continues firing. Another close call at 6:10 on first tank. Note no reactive armor upgrade on these T-72. Excellent footage."

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c56_1363981215