Syrian Civil War - Baba Amr (DAR)

[LongLeftFlank]

After a 6 month hiatus to work on Makin and le Carillon, I am drifting back to finish my H2H scenario on Syria, which I think means getting my playtest with SBurke going again (turn 42). Since I didn't want to dredge up all the political back-and-forthing from the previous thread, I decided to quote some of the CMSF-relevant posts to re-kick things off here.

I was one of the major offenders last time, but let's try to keep this thread focused on the game and the scenario, and take any political debates, Kettler videos of Russian flying saucers in Tartus, etc. to separate threads.

For those interested, here are some excerpts from the BLUE mission briefing, giving background and context. As I've said many times, I'm more of an amateur historian than a gamer, so this stuff is important to me. But for the benefit of gamers who just want to get right into the fight, I've put the "Quick Start" bullets right up front (hat tip, Erwin).....

BABA AMR district, Homs, Syria, late February 2012.

An elite Syrian regime armoured battalion (BLUE) is moving to seize a densely built up rebel neighbourhood, resisted by a force of lightly equipped FSA fighters (RED). The forces are grossly imbalanced, but BLUE will lose if block clearing tactics are slipshod and too many men and vehicles fall to rebel ambushes. This scenario was designed as a what-if; in actual practice the FSA has been unable to take on Army mech forces deployed in battalion strength, preferring to escalate IED warfare against regime supply lines in imitation of the Iraq insurgency and overrunning isolated outposts at night.

*****QUICK START****** (Spare me the history lesson! How do I win?)

1. You have 3 Control objectives, the Consumer Centre traffic circle, the Thabit School and the nearby Zubair bin al Awam Mosque. If you control these and lose less than 8% of your force, you will win. Otherwise, you must inflict at least 50% losses on the enemy without losing more than 20% of your own force to win.

2. You have 2 mobile forces totaling 200 men (mostly Special Forces command units in body armour, without RPG-29s) mounted in 10 BMP-3s and various jeeps, plus 5 T-72 TURMS tanks. The second (commando) group will arrive after 10-15 minutes in the area marked "highway".

3. Your firepower is mostly mounted in your AFVs. Even though most of your infantry are "Special Forces" and part of an elite praetorian division, their morale and leadership is poor relative to NATO troops. They prefer not to die.

4. RED strength is unknown. The only known threats are RPGs and small arms. IEDs and mines have never yet been encountered. Roadblocks, both deliberate and incidental (rubble from the lengthy bombardments), create another hazard in the narrow backstreets. Their ammo is low but they know they won't be taken prisoner.

BACKGROUND

Strategic map

BABA AMR district, Homs, Syria, late February 2012.

In the twelve months since the popular protests of the "Arab Spring" reached the streets of Syria's cities, the Assad regime and army had reacted with increasingly brutal force.

The roots of the unrest were not primarily sectarian, but demographic and economic. With no oil revenues or Cold War Soviet aid to draw on, and the Levantine merchant classes of this ancient crossroads in economic and demographic decline, the Ba'ath welfare state was now failing. For millions of Sunni Arab young people crowding into crumbling cities, Syria had little future to offer beyond day labour and grinding poverty.

In contrast, on the age-old despotic pattern, the Assad court clan of the Alawite Shia sect had systematically amassed to itself all political, military and economic power. The armed forces remained lavishly funded, but unlike Egypt, Turkey or Pakistan their commanders no longer had any institutional loyalty to the nation, only to the Assads.

With little ability or inclination to create broader wealth or opportunity, the rulers had devolved into pure kleptocracy, extracting a Mercedes Benz lifestyle for a shrinking elite. They feared that a Sunni-majority government would exact a brutal sectarian revenge on its oppressors. Thus, with nothing to offer the people, the regime's sole option was to crush them with armed force. And the more blood they spilled, the more there was no turning back.

During 2011, as troops began firing on demonstrators, thousands of ordinary soldiers deserted in disgust to the loose collection of armed opposition groups known as the "Free Syria Army", taking their rifles. This influx of dedicated fighters, who knew there was no going back, allowed rebels to carve out large denied areas in the vehicle-unfriendly cities, and in hilly areas near the borders. More ominous still for the regime, the FSA negotiated informal truces with local garrisons, allowing supplies and arms to flow in.

By the end of 2011, aware that its control was slipping away, the regime marshaled its most reliable forces to crush key rebel centers using brutal, overwhelming force, in the hope of intimidating the rest, as it had done in Hama in 1982.

Its first target was Homs, Syria's third largest city, an ancient trading center whose multi-ethnic and multi-sectarian population had a long tradition of thwarting the will of rulers. In December 2011, hundreds of tanks arrived to seal off restive districts. The siege conditions, together with chill winter weather, began taking a toll on the FSA rebels and their civilian hosts.

But ejecting the FSA from the Old City and the crowded Sunni tenement districts that had sprung up all around it continued to pose a formidable challenge for the armour-heavy regime forces. The neighbourhood of Baba Amr was particularly hazardous. As BMPs and tanks spread out into the narrow streets, unable to support each other, the rebels would incinerate a few with point blank RPG shots, then melt away. They would then return at night in force to overrun isolated outposts. Inevitably, the army was forced to withdraw to defensible bases, unable to hold what it had taken.

Frustrated at the lack of progress, the army ratcheted up the siege of Baba Amr in February, using weapons the rebels could not counter: weeks of intensive bombardment by 122mm artillery and 140mm rockets. Tactically, these weapons were ineffective, as rebel fighters were killed only by accident. But the suffering inflicted on civilians, combined with the privations of the ongoing siege, was grievous.

Situation: Friendly Forces

You command a company of the 402nd Guards Mechanized Infantry Battalion, reinforced by T72s of the 417th Armoured Battalion and Special Forces commandos (see below). Your parent formation is the elite Fourth Armoured Division, commanded by the President's younger brother Maher al-Assad.

The Syrian army suffers the same rot afflicting other Ba'ath institutions. For years, its officer corps has been selected and promoted for loyalty, not effectiveness, and has focused its efforts on graft, neglecting training and readiness. Soldiers and NCOs are virtually unpaid conscript labour, their scant wages routinely skimmed by their superiors.

The army's primary strength is that it remains lavishly equipped owing to generous aid from Russia and Iran. Even with slipshod maintenance and logistics, more than enough mechanized forces can be moved about the aging highway network to saturate flashpoints with an intimidating presence and overmatch lightly armed rebels.

In addition to leadership, the most awkward point is the ordinary soldiers (jundi), who are drafted from the same poor populations they are now being ordered to beat, shoot and lately, bombard with heavy artillery. Even "elite" troops are showing themselves highly unwilling to risk life and limb against determined opposition. They remain in or near their vehicles, sending bullets and shells, not men, allowing the streetwise guerrillas to escape and strike in another place.

Moreover, as of early 2012 the army finds itself badly short of infantry. Many soldiers in frontline combat formations deserted to the opposition in 2011, bolstering FSA combat power. In response, the command hastily reorganized its frontline forces, keeping large numbers of Sunni draftees locked down in barracks.

Reliable troops have now been redeployed to a smaller number of mechanized divisions which have large amounts of armour and artillery, but whose bayonet strength is as little as half their full establishment. In multiethnic cities like Homs, these units are augmented by paramilitaries known as Shabiha (Ghosts), drawn from Alawite and other loyalist sects. However, while these thugs know the locale, their combat effectiveness is even poorer than the regular Army. All in all, the Army units have massive firepower, but lack cohesion, competence and determination in closing with the rebels, much less fighting door-to-door.

As a Praetorian formation tasked with crushing the rebellion, the 4th division has an attached battalion of better paid and trained Special Forces commandos (Wahdat al-Khassa). These experienced fighters are more likely to close with and kill the enemy, although they too have limits on their willingness to die for the regime.

Situation: Enemy Forces

Regime propaganda notwithstanding, it appears none of the Baba Amr fighters are Al Qaeda fanatics, but rather a mix of army deserters and local militiamen, largely though not exclusively Sunni. No foreign volunteers have been confirmed, dead or alive. Furthermore the trademark tools of AQ -- IEDs and suicide belts -- are not (yet) in noticeable use here. The primary resistance weapons at present are what the deserters took with them: rifles, a few machine guns and an even smaller number of RPGs. Ammunition is very short, so they are unable to sustain lengthy firefights.

Their C3 and discipline is extremely poor; they tend to flock to firefights in an unruly mob, and this could be used to trap them if army troops would act more aggressively. As it is, they tend to vanish when confronted with superior force.

A few foreigners remain in Homs; ostensibly doctors and journalists. As far as the regime is concerned they are spies and provocateurs working arm in arm with the traitors. Rumours aside, there is no evidence of Western military support or advisers.

ALL SUBUNIT COMMANDERS BE ADVISED: The irahibin (terrorists) have announced their retreat from Baba Amr under heavy pressure from our forces. Our sniper/observation posts in the high rises have reported a noticeable decrease in activity of all kinds. It is also reported that fewer than 4,000 residents remain of the original 50,000+. Any rafidha (renegades) remaining have no civilians to hide among. Thus, anybody seen on the streets may be deemed an enemy and treated accordingly. [the Population Density setting has been lowered to reflect this].

Mission: Overall Description

Heartened by FSA announcements to the foreign press that its fighters are withdrawing "temporarily" from Baba Amr, the Division has ordered your units to spearhead a final advance into the rubble and trash-filled streets. Your force objectives are to establish a permanent command post in the heart of the district and secure a nearby mosque that is a known center of rebel activity.

Your attack plan has been devised personally by General Assad and, with typical flair, dubbed Operation "Adiyat" (Warhorse), after the 100th *sura* of the Holy Qu'ran. Your forces are effectively committed, and needless to say, you are not inclined to modify your orders.

As the coursers that run, snorting, (1)

And striking sparks of fire, (2)

And driving home the charge at dawn, (3)

And raising dust in clouds the while, (4)

Cleaving, as one, the centre of the foe, (5)

Truly man is, to his Lord, ungrateful; (6)

And to that fact his deeds bear witness; (7)

And violent is he in his love of wealth. (8)

Does he not know? that when the contents of the graves are poured forth (9)

And the secrets of the breasts are made known, (10)

On that day will their Lord be perfectly informed concerning them. (11)

Operational map

Departing from the battalion's forward operating base near the University high rises, your reinforced company is advancing west (South on the map) along the district's wide commercial boulevards. This move is expected to draw any remaining rafidha north toward you.

Meanwhile, a jeep-mounted Special Forces commando platoon accompanied by two tanks is to dash boldly along the elevated highway that forms the eastern boundary of Baba Amr [REMINDER: "East" is North on the game map] and secure the mosque. As the irahibin react to this coup de main, you will catch them on the move between your forces and slaughter them like the traitorous rats they are.

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Here's a pano of the BLUE force setup, looking toward the objectives.

[LongLeftFlank]

The armoured column sets off down the main commercial boulevard, passing as if on parade before the defaced portrait of the Divine Ruler, whose aloof, epicene smile adds no warmth to the leaden sky.

Here's a suitably atmospheric screenie I took of the regime's notorious Shabiha (Ghost) thugs rolling with the 402nd Mechanized battalion. Mord's Mix and Match Fighters mod gives them a great paramilitary look.

Any momentary feeling of invincibility provided by the roar of 20 heavy diesels dissipates now into the chill morning as Major Hassan's armour takes up positions facing into the brooding maze of streets. Half a battalion can vanish here.... quickly.

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The screenie that gives SBurke fits as he starts picking his way along the main boulevard, block by block.

FSA combat groups of the "Farouk Battalion" shadow the army column, seeking revenge for the weeks of unrelenting bombardment of their district.

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But he hasn't left much of an opening.... yet

Very professional combined arms house clearing tactics by SBurke here in our H2H playtest, as glimpsed by my omnipresent Spies (he has a lot more infantry combing this boulevard but they're only visible to me at moments). So far he hasn't left me many openings to whack his armour from the flank or rear. But then, he's only a couple of blocks in.....

[LongLeftFlank]

Holiday snaps from SBurke's side of the hill....

No turn? Okay then I'll just have to post some screenies.

Insurgents practice customary welcoming of guests with gifts.....

More neighbors come over to visit. This team will make short work of the Shabiha sniper team that had gunned down an unarmed civilian just minutes before.

[Erwin]

This looks SO amazing LLF. I may actually have to emerge from my hole and attempt H2H just to play this. (But, I am really scared...)

[Frankster65]

Wow! Very, very cool.

[LongLeftFlank]

This looks SO amazing LLF. I may actually have to emerge from my hole and attempt H2H just to play this. (But, I am really scared...)

And I would PAY to view an AAR of you vs Mord in a grudge match to the death!

[Buzz]

LLF Just typed a long response and clicked to post and it vanished! Have to run but will try later. Looks great.

Buzz

[Buzz]

LLF,

Looks like you have Syrian Civil War - Baba Amr (DAR) pretty well filed in per Situation of Enemy Forces.

I listened to NPR's Syria’s Evolving Uprising Oct 16, 2012 and the guests agree with your set up. The Free Syrian Army fighters are poorly supplied with very little ammunition. Most of their heavy weapons are from captures of regime depots or wining a skirmish with the Syrian army.

Syrian fixed wing and helicopter assets are extremely effective on the often disorganized Free Syrian Army groups. There are some 10-20% Jihadis but they are not any more well equipped than Free Syrian Army.

All in all it sounds like urban trench warfare with block by block fighting and stalemates. Syrian Civil War - Baba Amr (DAR) CMSF looks very realistic but also a very time consuming and bloody scenario.

H2H real time would be intense.

Are you planning a AI version?

Buzz

[LongLeftFlank]

Thanks. Per my OP, I'm going stick to DAR/scenario design talk here and to resist the urge to comment on the NPR stuff you cite. Elsewise, at least one prolific Forum member will be here in about 5 seconds with 15 video clips, 8 red herrings and a partridge in a pear tree.... He and others are welcome to post here, but about this game, not current events or Really Supercool Russian Weapons That Wouldn't It Be Great To Have In CMSF.

I'd like to but no, the AI simply cannot be programmed to systematically clear blocks while maintaining the kind of tight infantry-armour cooperation required to *not* leave dangling targets for the rebels to pounce on. SBurke, a veteran H2H player is finding it harrowing as is. By the same token, the AI simply does not know how to sneak and peak or hit and run against superior forces on an uncertain path and timetable in a MOUT environment. When they move, they take to the streets, generally at a run and don't change course until hit or routed. Once engaged, they stay engaged until hit or routed (permanently). Against tanks advancing along straight boulevards, this is suicidal!

So no, there will be no AI version. Have you tried my Ramadi scenario? Similar environment (less hi rise though) -- in fact, Baba Amr is a modified version of that map. USMC forces are far weaker and the insurgents more numerous and more aggressive (as in the real battle), so dashing through the streets seeking point blank shootouts worked well there.

[LongLeftFlank]

44 minutes in; SBurke continues to advance systematically and cautiously along two parallel boulevards, flushing out my Spies and a hidden RPG team as he clears the buildings. He screens his armour thoroughly with his infantry, plus an overwatch of snipers on various highrise rooftops for good measure (they're the ones who typically unearth the Spies).

And halfway through, without warning 3 more FSA fighters dash boldly across the gunsights of his startled tanks and infantry to escape the closing vise. The US military calls these guys "squirters".

Peter Murphy: The Line Between The Devil's Teeth

[Buzz]

Have you tried my Ramadi scenario?

No. I did DL it but only today made time to load Boot Camp (my mac issue) to check out your Ramadi screenplay. Wow! Impressive and Immersive.

Ramadi as time allows will be a pleasure to test my skills vs AI.

I will give you feedback as I progress.

Thanks.

Buzz

Apologies for my NPR distraction from Syrian Civil War - Baba Amr (DAR).

Fight On!

[John Kettler]

LongLeftFlank,

I congratulate you on a stellar briefing!

Regards,

John Kettler

[Saferight]

have you ever thought of doing syria scenarios in less built up terrain? so to make it more capable for the AI to play...

[LongLeftFlank]

Thanks for the interest. There's this little game called CMSF and it has, oh, 3 modules with HUNDREDS of scenarios, mainly set in all kinds of open terrain. So that market seems fairly saturated.... RED v RED campaigns included.

Problem is, in my experience BLUE annihilates RED 73 Easting-style with long range weapons approximately 100% of the time, barring some kind of designer-engineered and highly implausible (and where was that airpower again?) "RED hordes" advantage and/or an unavoidable Turn 1 ambush. Which is all basically what should happen (realistic) barring a total command SNAFU.

Which is why the modus operandi for RED forces since 2002 (and earlier) is not to even bother engaging BLUE in open terrain (nighttime hit and run raids on isolated outposts possibly excepted), but to withdraw into populated areas and hide amid the civilians, trusting in stone walls and ROE to, if not deter attack altogether, neutralize the ranged weapons advantage. And that's what I'm interested in -- standing in the boots of real world combat commanders facing (somewhat) realistic tactical situations and combat environments.

Otherwise, there's plenty of much prettier games out there to choose from.

EDIT: SBurke, I will try to send you a turn tonight. Job search took first priority this week, although I also plowed through Jules Roy's Dienbienphu book.

[sburke]

EDIT: SBurke, I will try to send you a turn tonight. Job search took first priority this week, although I also plowed through Jules Roy's Dienbienphu book.

No sweat, but heads up. I leave town Sunday for about a week and half and will be sans CM during that time.

[Saferight]

Thanks for the interest. There's this little game called CMSF and it has, oh, 3 modules with HUNDREDS of scenarios, mainly set in all kinds of open terrain. So that market seems fairly saturated.... RED v RED campaigns included.

Problem is, in my experience BLUE annihilates RED 73 Easting-style with long range weapons approximately 100% of the time, barring some kind of designer-engineered and highly implausible (and where was that airpower again?) "RED hordes" advantage and/or an unavoidable Turn 1 ambush. Which is all basically what should happen (realistic) barring a total command SNAFU.

Which is why the modus operandi for RED forces since 2002 (and earlier) is not to even bother engaging BLUE in open terrain (nighttime hit and run raids on isolated outposts possibly excepted), but to withdraw into populated areas and hide amid the civilians, trusting in stone walls and ROE to, if not deter attack altogether, neutralize the ranged weapons advantage. And that's what I'm interested in -- standing in the boots of real world combat commanders facing (somewhat) realistic tactical situations and combat environments.

Otherwise, there's plenty of much prettier games out there to choose from.

EDIT: SBurke, I will try to send you a turn tonight. Job search took first priority this week, although I also plowed through Jules Roy's Dienbienphu book.

maybe i should've been more clear. what i meant to say is more scenarios depicting the current situation in the Levant. this baba amr map seems fairly well made. FSA vs SAA is a bit more well matched if ieds an maybe some captured armor are thrown in.

[Saferight]

i think cmsf shines more in red vs red scenarios that was all i was talking about.

[LongLeftFlank]

Ah, yes, that I agree with wholeheartedly. But the premise of having the FSA having more "armour" on hand in a tactical engagement than a defected BMP or two seems to me implausible -- as you likely know, there's a lot of complex logistics involved in keeping a mechanized formation in the field. Were a large chunk of the Syrian army command to defect, "liberating" a large segment of the country a la Libya, well that's something else entirely. But I'm not personally inclined to model what-ifs like that right now.

The specific topic of interest to me was: why the hell did it take the Syrian Army so long to "retake" Baba Amr with all those tanks, against an enemy armed with only a few RPGs. And by the way, there's still plenty of rebel activity in Homs, 8 months later. Most of the city is still not under government control, although the FSA hasn't formally declared itself in control either for fear of inviting another savage artillery bombardment.

SB, you know what, I'm gonna take a raincheck on Baba Amr until you get back. Want to do a touch more modding for Dienbienphu, which is sucking me in deeper the more I read. Fascinating battle, for both sides!

[sburke]

SB, you know what, I'm gonna take a raincheck on Baba Amr until you get back. Want to do a touch more modding for Dienbienphu, which is sucking me in deeper the more I read. Fascinating battle, for both sides!

np I don't think we'd get more than a turn in anyway. Have you read the following? It is a really good read. I think the US involvement in Vietnam was a huge mistake, but for slightly different reasons than you may usually hear. Anytime you see the world in black and white (or red and blue as the case may be) you miss the subtleties. I think the United States let it's paranoia and French stupidity allow it to miss probably our biggest opportunity to have altered the whole course of history in the cold war. The Vietnamese saw the US as natural allies during the war against Japan and if we had actually backed them in the negotiations in the 1950's to end the war we'd likely have ended up with a staunch ally against China. China invaded Vietnam pretty darn quickly after we were gone and is in current conflict with them over natural resources and Pacific territory (along with every other neighbor they have). And guess who is now their best buddy....us. 50 years of opportunity flushed down the toilet. Yeah it is all hindsight and maybe it wouldn't have worked or couldn't have worked considering the mindset, but we picked far worse and less reliable allies.

http://www.amazon.com/Vietnam-War-The-History-1946-1975/dp/0195067924/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1351312307&sr=8-2&keywords=Philip+B.+Davidson

Weaving together the histories of three distinct conflicts, Phillip B. Davidson follows the entire course of the Vietnam War, from the initial French skirmishes in 1946 to the dramatic fall of Saigon nearly thirty years later. His connecting thread is North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap, a remarkable figure who, with no formal military training, fashioned a rag-tag militia into one of the world's largest and most formidable armies. By focusing on Giap's role throughout the war, and by making available for the first time a wealth of recently declassified North Vietnamese documents, Davidson offers unprecedented insight into Hanoi's military strategies, an insight surpassed only by his inside knowledge of American operations and planning.

Eminently qualified to write this history, Davidson--who served as chief intelligence officer under Generals Westmoreland and Abrams--tells firsthand the story of our tragic ordeal in Indochina and brings his unique understanding to bear on topics of continuing controversy, offering a chilling account, for example, of when and where the U.S. considered using nuclear weapons. The most comprehensive and authoritative history of the conflict to date, Vietnam at War sparkles with a rare immediacy, and brings to life in compelling fashion the war that tore America apart. We witness the chaos in Saigon when fireworks celebrating the Tet holiday are suddenly transformed into deadly rocket and machine-gun fire. We sit in on high-level meetings where General Westmoreland plans operations, or simply engages in some tough "headknocking" with subordinates. And in the end we learn that even the seemingly limitless resources of the U.S. military could not match the revolutionary "grand strategy" of the North Vietnamese.

With its easy movement from intimate memoir to trenchant military analysis, from the conference rooms of generals to the battle-scarred streets of Hue, this is military history at its most gripping. A monumental, engrossing, and unforgettable chronicle, Vietnam at War is indispensable for anyone hoping to understand a conflict that still rages in the American psyche.

[LongLeftFlank]

Oof, I cracked the door and we're way OT. Short answer: no, I hadn't. I'll respond over at the DBP thread.

[sburke]

Oof, I cracked the door and we're way OT. Short answer: no, I hadn't. I'll respond over at the DBP thread.

LOL, okay back on topic. I assume you saw the NY times article on Homs from your previous post?

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/world/middleeast/syrian-soldiers-fight-rebels-and-fatigue-in-homs.html

there are also articles today on the fighting in Aleppo and elsewhere. Seems a ceasefire couldn't even last the day...actually hours I guess if even that.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/world/middleeast/in-syria-cease-fire-for-holiday-falls-apart.html?ref=world

[LongLeftFlank]

Ceasefires are nonsense unless informally agreed to by local commanders. The entire opposition knows they will be murdered the moment they fall under the authority and guns of the Assads again.

However dramatic the humanitarian disaster, the cities aren't truly where the Syrian Civil War is being decided -- the regime shows the reporters only what it wants them to see. I would look instead to the classified NSA satellite imagery that is cataloguing the ramp-up of the IED (roadside bomb) campaign that is, drip by drip, strangling the mech-heavy Syrian army by striking its lengthy logistical tail out in the countryside.

But again, let's keep this thread focused on the game.

Imagine, SBurke, that you have only half as many AFVs to conduct our current game (the others are immobile at base, for lack of spares), and ~20% more poorly trained and undermotivated Shabiha militiamen (OK, they've now been issued body armour) instead? While whatever they say to the cameras, the elite Special Forces units are depleted and weary from being used time and time again for costly close assaults against do-or-die resistance.

In contrast, the weary FSA militias also have slightly fewer infantry but twice as many RPGs, and also have booby traps and IED "paintcan" explosively formed penetrators. These are now manufactured in local workshops using knowhow brought in from Iraq and refined over 8 years of fighting against a vastly more capable opponent.