The Road Ahead

[Sequoia]

Thats not what the pentagon think...300,000 allied casualties in first few weeks..

300,000 expected casualties? Surely that must include civilians as Seoul is within artillery range ( not that a civilian loss is worth less), but IIRC the planned invasion of Japan wasn't much more in expected Allied losses.

[z1812]

A "Patton vs. Zhukov" special module for either the Bulge or the Bagration game would be sweet, and sort of what the modular system is made for. Although it could be hard for BFC to tell if there's any money in it - but since they're working simultaneously on the end-of-war in both west and east fronts (and Italy), once they have both covered to May 1945 adding either Russians to Bulge or Yanks to Bagration should be trivial.

I would like to see this as well. The Soviet Union facing the Allies would be quite interesting.

[Sergei]

300,000 expected casualties? Surely that must include civilians as Seoul is within artillery range ( not that a civilian loss is worth less), but IIRC the planned invasion of Japan wasn't much more in expected Allied losses.

I recall a similar figure, and it didn't include civilians (the northern parts of Seoul within artillery range would be evacuated before an outbreak of hostilities, anyway, and the volume of artillery pieces that can reach there is relatively low). South Korean army would be receiving quite a barrage in that scenario. Also this scenario was based on a US/ROK attack, rather than DPRK surprise attack.

That report was written back in 1990's (when North started rattling nuclear sabres) so the estimates have probably changed since.

[Vanir Ausf B]

The Pentagon tends to be pessimistic in it's casualty predictions. IIRC they were expecting 5000 casualties in the first Gulf War against Iraq.

[Sergei]

You don't want to give overly optimistic figures to the powers that be, lest they believe in them...

[JonS]

Thats not what the pentagon think...300,000 allied casualties in first few weeks..

Do you have some context for that assertion? I'm curious as to the cirucumstances under which that number is derived. 300,000 cas is almost half of the entire active US Army and USMC combined - or over half the entire combined South Korean and US 8th Armys - which doesn't seem terribly plausible.

[Quintus Sertorius]

Man, I guess Korea really is The Forgotten War...

My father was in the USAF during the Korean War, and he told me that when he came home after three years he would meet people and they would say, "Where have you been?"

[YankeeDog]

300,000 expected casualties? Surely that must include civilians as Seoul is within artillery range ( not that a civilian loss is worth less), but IIRC the planned invasion of Japan wasn't much more in expected Allied losses.

Nope; expected casualties in the invasion of Japan were generally much higher than 300,000.

There is a pretty large range in the estimates of Allied casualties in Operation Downfall; they vary not only depending whose estimate you're looking at, but also at what point in time the estimate was made. In general, casualty estimates increased as 1945 wore on and the planned invasion dates approached. Okinawa, tiny compared to the Japanese home islands, cost 72,000 casualties. Many planners, such as Admiral Nimitz, revised their casualty estimates for Operation Downfall dramatically upward as a result of what was experienced on Okinawa.

U.S. military and other Government estimates for the entire campaign started at about 500,000 on the most optimistic side, and went as high as 4 million. These figures are for the whole enchilada -- from Operation Olympic (initial landings on Kyushu slated for October, 1945 to establish a forward operating base) through the end of Operation Coronet (landings on Honshu in Spring 1946, with the objective of the Kanto Plain, including Tokyo). If you look at just Operation Olympic, then casualty estimates started at about 70,000, and got as high as about 500,000.

Rather Macabre trivia: The U.S. had so many Purple Heart medals made in anticipation of the needs for the invasion of Japan that the U.S. military is still working through this stock; new Purple Heart medals have not been minted since 1945.

[Wodin]

Do you have some context for that assertion? I'm curious as to the cirucumstances under which that number is derived. 300,000 cas is almost half of the entire active US Army and USMC combined - or over half the entire combined South Korean and US 8th Armys - which doesn't seem terribly plausible.

It was a Pentagon wargame I believe..you can find info on it if you google.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/07/north-korea-the-war-game/304029/

"The North Korean situation is also ripe for war-game treatment, because of the extraordinarily difficult military and diplomatic challenges it presents. Iran, considered an urgent national-security priority, is thought to be three to five years away from possessing even a single nuclear device. North Korea is widely believed to have as many as ten already, and to be producing more every year. (It is also the first developing nation thought to be capable of striking the continental United States with a long-range ballistic missile.) And whereas Iraq did not, after all, have weapons of mass destruction, North Korea is believed to have large stockpiles of chemical weapons (mustard gas, sarin, VX nerve agent) and biological weapons (anthrax, botulism, cholera, hemorrhagic fever, plague, smallpox, typhoid, yellow fever). An actual war on the Korean peninsula would almost certainly be the bloodiest America has fought since Vietnam—possibly since World War II. In recent years Pentagon experts have estimated that the first ninety days of such a conflict might produce 300,000 to 500,000 South Korean and American military casualties, along with hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths. The damage to South Korea alone would rock the global economy."

https://www.google.com/search?client=aff-maxthon-newtab&channel=t2&q=pentagon%20300%2C000%20casualties%20north%20korea#client=aff-maxthon-newtab&channel=t2&q=pentagon+casualty+estimate+north+korea&spell=1&sa=X&ei=xV-4UZ6DI8ea0AXs9YHIBw&ved=0CCoQvwUoAA&bav=on.2,or.r_cp.r_qf.&bvm=bv.47810305,d.d2k&fp=11b04e84fb06dfb5&biw=1440&bih=777

[sburke]

It was a Pentagon wargame I believe..you can find info on it if you google.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/07/north-korea-the-war-game/304029/

"The North Korean situation is also ripe for war-game treatment, because of the extraordinarily difficult military and diplomatic challenges it presents. Iran, considered an urgent national-security priority, is thought to be three to five years away from possessing even a single nuclear device. North Korea is widely believed to have as many as ten already, and to be producing more every year. (It is also the first developing nation thought to be capable of striking the continental United States with a long-range ballistic missile.) And whereas Iraq did not, after all, have weapons of mass destruction, North Korea is believed to have large stockpiles of chemical weapons (mustard gas, sarin, VX nerve agent) and biological weapons (anthrax, botulism, cholera, hemorrhagic fever, plague, smallpox, typhoid, yellow fever). An actual war on the Korean peninsula would almost certainly be the bloodiest America has fought since Vietnam—possibly since World War II. In recent years Pentagon experts have estimated that the first ninety days of such a conflict might produce 300,000 to 500,000 South Korean and American military casualties, along with hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths. The damage to South Korea alone would rock the global economy."

https://www.google.com/search?client=aff-maxthon-newtab&channel=t2&q=pentagon%20300%2C000%20casualties%20north%20korea#client=aff-maxthon-newtab&channel=t2&q=pentagon+casualty+estimate+north+korea&spell=1&sa=X&ei=xV-4UZ6DI8ea0AXs9YHIBw&ved=0CCoQvwUoAA&bav=on.2,or.r_cp.r_qf.&bvm=bv.47810305,d.d2k&fp=11b04e84fb06dfb5&biw=1440&bih=777

Actually it looks like a wargame run by The Atlantic not the Pentagon.

[Wodin]

If you search the net..the figure comes from the Pentagon. Infact in the paragraph I quoted it says from Pentagon experts..plus just google it you'll find several sources stating the same thing..the figures came from the Pentagon.

[Bil Hardenberger]

I say that 300,000 casualty figure is pure BS. Against N. Korea? It's as certain to happen as finding WMD's in Iraq was or of a tornado blowing you to Oz, pure fantasy.

Seriously N. Korea is not a threat to the US military, or even to the S. Korean military... the only thing they have is one or two functional nukes.. but can they deliver them? I have my doubts that they would even get the chance if it went hot over there.

[JonS]

A near future Korean War conventional war wargame would be utterly boring.

... nuclear device. North Korea is widely believed to have as many as ten already, and to be producing more every year. ... North Korea is believed to have large stockpiles of chemical weapons (mustard gas, sarin, VX nerve agent) and biological weapons (anthrax, botulism, cholera, hemorrhagic fever, plague, smallpox, typhoid, yellow fever).

Spot the difference?

The paragraph from your experts talks exclusively about NBC weapons. And, ok, I guess they might get lucky and cause 300k cas ... probably mostly to themselves. But, you know. Whatever. However your experts don't appear to mention conventional weapons at all. Probably because that is an utterly foregone conclusion.

Now think a bit about what CM includes, and what it excludes, and what that means in terms of an hypothetical conflict with DPRK.

[Yeknodathon]

I think they could deploy Chuck Norris too.

[Quintus Sertorius]

I was thinking more along the lines of Combat Mission: Inchon Invasion 1950.

[sburke]

I am currently reading To the Last Round off a recommendation. Fascinating if you haven't read it.

The most notorious and celebrated battle in the Korean War, from a British point of view, has never previously been written about at length: this is the story of the Battle of the Imjin River, when the British 29th Infantry Brigade, and above all the Glorious Glosters of the Gloster Regiment, fought an epic last stand against the largest communist offensive of the war. It lasted just three days, by the end of it a battalion of 750 men had been reduced to just 50 survivors. This definitive history is accessible, pacy, narrative, and paints a moving and exciting picture through the extensive use of eyewitness accounts of veterans.

[Sublime]

told ya it was a good one

[sburke]

told ya it was a good one

Heh heh yes you did. Actually it is pretty brutally graphic. Also makes a great argument for the effectiveness factor for the MGs in CM 2.0. At one point in the account I am reading now, the riflemen were passing their rounds over to the Vickers crews to use. Both the Chinese and British MG crews were primary battlefield weapons.

[jakla1027]

Combat Mission fans have a lot to look forward to in the next year as the CMx2 game engine continues to produce games at an every faster pace. At the moment we have three games in active development and more planned. While we aren't in a position to make detailed announcements right now, we can tell you what the three are about (in no particular order):

1. CM: Battle for Normandy Module 2. This Module picks up where CM:BN and Commonwealth left off... with the September push out of France to the German border. The content centers around Operation Market Garden, though it covers more ground than just that. The game includes a number of new vehicles, formations, and new terrain models/textures. Adding new terrain, a first for any Module so far, ensures that you feel like you're fighting near Germany and not still back at the beacheads.

2. CM: Eastern Front 1. The first of four Eastern Front "families" starts with Operation Bagration (June 1944) and eventually covers through to the end of the war (May 1945). For many tactical warfare enthusiasts, this period is considered the most tactically interesting since both sides were at their peak of their military technology, organization, and experience. The scope and scale of the combat offers plenty of subject matter to explore.

3. CM: Shock Force 2. Our return to modern warfare is long overdue! Given how close Shock Force 1 was at predicting a conventional conflict in Syria, we're a little nervous about choosing a topic this time around. Especially because we've chosen to simulate a full spectrum conventional conflict between NATO and Russia in the Ukraine. This gives players a rich tactical environment to explore with the most advanced militaries the world has ever seen. Having said that, we hope the politicians aren't insane enough to try it for real. Even thought this is great stuff for a game, it's the last thing this world needs in real life.

We have more games planned for 2013, however we are making no formal announcements at this time. These three mini-announcements should be enough to keep you busy for a while.

Well It's been over a year since this post....& we've seen none of the 3 main games listed....just Gustav Line.

[Vanir Ausf B]

TBH, I would be surprised if any of those other than the Market-Garden module make it out by the end of this year. But I've been surprised before.

[ridethe415]

TBH, I would be surprised if any of those other than the Market-Garden module make it out by the end of this year.

I'm actually in no hurry. Gustav Line will take at least 4 months to get through completely, and I still haven't done all of CW.

I think two more games this year would be too much gaming material. I'd still buy them...

[Sublime]

Well It's been over a year since this post....& we've seen none of the 3 main games listed....just Gustav Line.

Yes, but you're leaving out 2.00-2.01 and the news on M-G. I take any BFC announcement on time with a grain of salt because it's ready when they think its ready, not some abstract calender date. As Vanir said I highly doubt we'll see SF2 or EF 1 this year at all. I bet we'll see MG, and perhaps one of the touted battlepacks...

[A Canadian Cat]

The thing is this last year has been much easier to take than the months before CMBN came out. Waiting for CMBN was sooooo hard:D Now, even though I am looking forward to the new stuff, I have great stuff to play while I wait.

Thanks BFC

[Michael Emrys]

Yes, but you're leaving out 2.00-2.01 and the news on M-G. I take any BFC announcement on time with a grain of salt because it's ready when they think its ready, not some abstract calender date. As Vanir said I highly doubt we'll see SF2 or EF 1 this year at all. I bet we'll see MG, and perhaps one of the touted battlepacks...

Since we are speculating again, I'll throw in my 2¢ worth. I think we will have MG before Labor day, possibly—but not too likely—before the end of July. Then a reasonably good chance of having one of the other two before the end of the year. Aside from that, it's anybody's guess. Space Lobsters of Doom maybe?

Michael

[Holman]

I'll bet we get MG about a month after it goes up for pre-order, and it will go up for pre-order a couple of weeks after the first official preview shots appear. July is too early--I guess August.

Then perhaps Bulge for Christmas?

(I was hoping for symbolic surprise previews of Bagration on 6/22, but alas.)