Red v Red for real in Syria

[LongLeftFlank]

A few screenies from my H2H playtest with SBurke will follow.

Unarmed civilian Mohammed Hamza martyred by Bashir Alawite criminal forces!

[LongLeftFlank]

FSA combat groups of the "Farouk Battalion" shadow the army column, seeking revenge for the weeks of unrelenting bombardment of their district.

[Boche]

Deffinatelly keep us updated!

[LongLeftFlank]

Absolutely! Half the fun of designing hyperrealistic (TIDSSM*) scenarios is capturing action screenshots. Don't have the time to do YouTube vids though.

* Though I Do....

[LongLeftFlank]

Oh, and for those of you readers who may be feeling a little queasy about my seeming to make light of very recent and tragic events afflicting real people in Syria, or to turn their suffering into frivolous entertainment, believe me as the blessed and fortunate father of a little girl I have shed plenty of tears over videos showing shot-up-kids there. This is a military analysis project for me and only secondarily a "game", even though it isn't something I get paid to do.

If I ran the zoo, at bare minimum the Obama admin -- maybe endorsed by the Hague -- would have at least put Maher Assad and the Fourth Division command very publicly on the Big S**t List of wanted international war criminals. And without explicitly saying so, we would effectively put them on notice that they had better sleep in a different tent every night, otherwise they might receive an unsigned Hellfire or Tomahawk suppository. Whether or not we ever followed up on that threat, it would give those bastards a lot of pause, and very likely make their subordinates look at them sideways and perhaps be a tad less enthusiastic in implementing their murderous orders.

[Erwin]

The problem with declaring "War Criminals" is that it cuts both ways. There are senior members of (former AFAIK) US admins who cannot go or transit thru certain countries as they are on the wanted list as "War Criminals". eg famously, Kissinger...

It appears only "safe" to declare someone a war criminal when they no longer represent a state, eg the Bosnian/Serb conflict guys.

[LongLeftFlank]

Very professional combined arms house clearing tactics by SBurke here in our H2H playtest, as glimpsed by my omnipresent Spies (he has a lot more infantry combing this boulevard but they're only visible to me at moments). So far he hasn't left me many openings to whack his armour from the flank or rear. But then, he's only a couple of blocks in.....

[sburke]

FSA combat groups of the "Farouk Battalion" shadow the army column, seeking revenge for the weeks of unrelenting bombardment of their district.

This screenshot is making me feel a little ill. I have already experienced how good LLF has designed this map for the insurgents to take quick snap shots and retreat into cover and LLFs skill at applying those tactics. The avenue that my tank is sitting on is a very long one and my troops are not too keen on getting that deep into built up terrain.

[LongLeftFlank]

Just keep in mind that the FSA supply of RPG rockets is limited. Those T72s are pretty formidable beasts and like I said, you ain't making it easy to get a flank shot, much less a hind shot. All those men would just get mowed down in heaps if they come face to face with you. Your troops' body armour helps too.

PS I'm thrashed from work, so probably no turns incoming tonight.

[sburke]

Just keep in mind that the FSA supply of RPG rockets is limited. Those T72s are pretty formidable beasts and like I said, you ain't making it easy to get a flank shot, much less a hind shot. All those men would just get mowed down in heaps if they come face to face with you. Your troops' body armour helps too.

PS I'm thrashed from work, so probably no turns incoming tonight.

No turn? Okay then I'll just have to post some screenies.

Insurgents practice customary welcoming of guests with gifts.....

More neighbors come over to visit. This team will make short work of the Shabiha sniper team that had gunned down an unarmed civilian just minutes before.

[John Kettler]

Here's a great link showing the destruction Syria's raining down on her people. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0_AgNM7IQs&feature=related

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

I have a new report that UN troops in Syria were subjected to full blown artillery shelling.

Aso, somebody sent me this. Haven't done more than glanced through it, but what I read was pretty disgusting. It might also be yet more propaganda. What is clear is there's a lot going on in Syria and that it doesn't seem to track well with reports from the mainstream media.

http://eyreinternational.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/the-true-situation-in-syria/

Regards,

John Kettler

[Bigduke6]

Those are some excellent screenies, I can almost smell the fallafel.

[John Kettler]

Bigduke6,

Mmm, falafel! Not so mmm is this: http://jhaines6.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/us-to-russia-give-up-or-swim-in-our-sea-of-syrian-blood-must-read/

which is extra special when placed in context with this: http://jhaines6.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/gen-wesley-clark-reveals-us-plan-to-invade-iraq-syria-lebanon-lybia-somalia-sudan-and-iran/

I think a strong case for official insanity can be made based on these two items alone!

Regards,

John Kettler

[sburke]

Those are some excellent screenies, I can almost smell the fallafel.

Thanks, we are on temporary hiatus. I am on the road and LLF is swamped. Bummer as it was a blast for me trying CMSF HTH in a very cool scenario and map. Hopefully we will get a chance to get back at it sometime soon.

[Bigduke6]

Sburke,

I hope you realize you and LLF are really falling down on your obligation to keep the rest of us entertained, try and sort that out please.

[sburke]

Sburke,

I hope you realize you and LLF are really falling down on your obligation to keep the rest of us entertained, try and sort that out please.

LOL working on it sir!!!

[LongLeftFlank]

Yes, some other things are pressing on my mind at the moment, like earning a living, but hope I can get back to this at some point.

[FkDahl]

More red on red, or rather black on red, as the Al Quaeda uses a black flag with some scribble on...

(yes, those same rebels US and Europe supports...seem eerily similar to what the US fought in Iraq, but I digress)

Also of interest http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/neue-erkenntnisse-zu-getoeteten-von-hula-abermals-massaker-in-syrien-11776496.html : evidence points to the rebels committing the massacre in Houla and then blamed it on the government.

[Erwin]

Amazing footage.

If one could turn em against each other in the other countries, Iran, Iraq etc that would solve a lot of headaches. The Brits used to be good at that sort of thing.

BTW: Any way one can get that music for CMSF loading screens etc?

[LongLeftFlank]

More red on red, or rather black on red, as the Al Quaeda uses a black flag with some scribble on...

(yes, those same rebels US and Europe supports...seem eerily similar to what the US fought in Iraq, but I digress)

Also of interest http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/neue-erkenntnisse-zu-getoeteten-von-hula-abermals-massaker-in-syrien-11776496.html : evidence points to the rebels committing the massacre in Houla and then blamed it on the government.

I say again, the inevitable appearance of Al Qaeda branded Salafists and their mad bomber tactics on the anti-government side does not delegitimize the wider armed rebellion. Nor does it suddenly make the Assad regime "the lesser of two evils" as so many people on this board seem to think.

The pre-2010 status quo (a nominally secular Alawite dominated Ba'athist welfare state) could not be sustained; demographics and economics are both against it. Furthermore, due to the regime's violent action against moderate reformers as well as its panicky playing of the secular strife card, it is now impossible to put that toothpaste back in the tube. Do-or-die fighters (not all of them religious fanatics) now dominate the armed opposition and a negotiated settlement is fundamentally unthinkable, for all the delusions of Kofi Annan.

The best that can be hoped for now is the prompt overthrow of the Assad family and its closest associates by elements within the regime itself, most reliably via the assassination or incapacitation of both Bashir and Maher Assad (anonymously Hellfire that bastard, please!).

That way, SOME semblance of existing institutions can open a internationally-brokered dialogue with the rebels and try to restore some kind of pluralistic government and eventually expel the foreign nutjobs. Otherwise, as the conflict drags on, the economy disintegrates and moderates become casualties, you will get a brutal Iraq style civil war (with no Western army to tamp it down), horrific ethnic cleansing, and the eventual and inevitable displacement of the regime and all existing institutions by a hardened group of Sunni Arab supremacists. A lot of that may happen anyway, sure, but there is NO option that lets anybody turn back the clock.

[Sgt Joch]

Without overt foreign military intervention, it is not that clear to me that the Assad regime will not be able to survive.

The bulk of the Rebel forces seem to be centered in one region, around Hamah, which is where the last rebellion occured in 1982. Most of the rebels also appear to be Sunni Muslims. with strong influence from the Muslim brotherhood.

The Assad regime still seems to to have the support of most Alawites, who also form the bulk of the officers in men in the Republican Guards. If the regime is overthrown, there will be retaliation against the Alawite minority, ranging from expropriation/exile to jail/torture/death so the Alawis are more or less tied at the hips with the Assads.

[sburke]

I say again, the inevitable appearance of Al Qaeda branded Salafists and their mad bomber tactics on the anti-government side does not delegitimize the wider armed rebellion. Nor does it suddenly make the Assad regime "the lesser of two evils" as so many people on this board seem to think.

The pre-2010 status quo (a nominally secular Alawite dominated Ba'athist welfare state) could not be sustained; demographics and economics are both against it. Furthermore, due to the regime's violent action against moderate reformers as well as its panicky playing of the secular strife card, it is now impossible to put that toothpaste back in the tube. Do-or-die fighters (not all of them religious fanatics) now dominate the armed opposition and a negotiated settlement is fundamentally unthinkable, for all the delusions of Kofi Annan.

The best that can be hoped for now is the prompt overthrow of the Assad family and its closest associates by elements within the regime itself, most reliably via the assassination or incapacitation of both Bashir and Maher Assad (anonymously Hellfire that bastard, please!).

That way, SOME semblance of existing institutions can open a internationally-brokered dialogue with the rebels and try to restore some kind of pluralistic government and eventually expel the foreign nutjobs. Otherwise, as the conflict drags on, the economy disintegrates and moderates become casualties, you will get a brutal Iraq style civil war (with no Western army to tamp it down), horrific ethnic cleansing, and the eventual and inevitable displacement of the regime and all existing institutions by a hardened group of Sunni Arab supremacists. A lot of that may happen anyway, sure, but there is NO option that lets anybody turn back the clock.

NY Times article today on the introduction of heavy weapons on both sides and the continued sale by Russia of items like Attack helicopters. This keeps up and sooner or later someone is going to decide it is time for a no fly zone. How Russia will react if a few of those choppers become flying fireballs is anyone's guess. It will definitely push Putin into a macho corner.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/world/middleeast/violence-in-syria-continues-as-protesters-killed.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20120613

[Erwin]

I imagine it will be the same as when US Stingers started shooting down their choppers in Afghanistan. So long as there is plausible deniability etc...

[LongLeftFlank]

The bulk of the Rebel forces seem to be centered in one region, around Hamah, which is where the last rebellion occured in 1982. Most of the rebels also appear to be Sunni Muslims. with strong influence from the Muslim brotherhood.

This is a guerrilla war; the rebels are most active where the regime's hold is weakest -- at present that is in the hilly country around Hama. The regime has concentrated heavy forces in the area around Homs, so the rebels have obligingly shifted their efforts north. The moment the boot comes off the neck of Homs it will erupt in rebellion again.

And time is not on the regime's side; the rebels are rapidly importing IED knowhow and materials from Iraq. Those impressive looking mechanized forces are going to start becoming tracked coffins before long, as will the large numbers of supply vehicles needed to sustain those forces. The US Army had a hard enough time with these tactics; the Syrian army, corrupt, inefficient and poorly motivated, is going to lose its mobility and with it, control of most of the country.

The 1982 rebellion was led by a locally based group of clerics and clansmen. The current rebellion is far more broad-based, and its grievances are largely economic, not religious even though religious fanatics are present. There is no useful analog here.

The Assad regime still seems to to have the support of most Alawites, who also form the bulk of the officers in men in the Republican Guards. If the regime is overthrown, there will be retaliation against the Alawite minority, ranging from expropriation/exile to jail/torture/death so the Alawis are more or less tied at the hips with the Assads.

The Alawites are about 10% of the population, and are shrinking demographically and aging, as are the Christians and other wealthier non-Sunni minorities. I have no doubt you are right that they face a grim future at the hands of the long repressed Sunni majority, but these people have made their bed over the last 50 years and must now lie in it. Their best bet is to kill the Assads now and hope that they can broker some kind of multisectarian "government of national reconciliation" that will at least protect some minority rights even if it is Sunni dominated. The longer this drags on, the less likely that becomes.

Big picture, guys: Like it or not, the ancient Levantine Syria, crossroads of cultures and sects, like much of the rest of the Middle East, is drowning in a demographic sea of undereducated Sunnis flocking into cities and towns from the hinterlands, wanting education and jobs and cars and everything else they see on TV. This tide cannot be reversed except through the most brutal form of genocide; and would the group that enacted such measures be worth "saving"?

As for Russian gunships and missiles, I feel like this is a red herring. The world has come a long way since the 1980s-1990s. Chinese dealers will gleefully supply effective SA-18 / Stinger knockoffs to anyone with the cash. Also, there's a lot of mythology floating around about the devastating impact of Hind gunships in A'stan, Chechnya and 1991 Iraq; while they are useful tools, especially in patrolling mountainous terrain, they will not eliminate a popular insurgency on their own. It's not like NATO has been PWNing the Taliban with Apaches.