Machor

By the way, yesterday, in the Day of UKR Air Forces, Russia hit some Air Forces facilities in Vinnytsia oblast with theree Kh-47 Kinzhal supersonic missiles, launched from MiG-31M heavy interceptors. 
I some worry about this night. Russians can retaliate on Kyiv for today boom. 

Thank you. Just doing what I can. Would like to do more but I do not have the required contacts.

Despite locals write they didn't see any missiles on web-cameras, which set on many beaches around, this really could be Neptunes. This missile can hit not only ships but coastal objects by GPS. Also let recall, in previous days UKR struck with HIMARS and HARM more than dozen of SAM and radars in Kherson oblast. After this we could move Neptun launcher somewhere to Ochakiv area and to send missiles in appeard "window". Neptun has a range in 280 km, so its enough to hit Russian base from Ochakiv.

I wonder if flying high 50+ km from the front is safe enough or not at the moment, probably not, but with HARM in the picture it can change maybe? HARM itself has advertised range of 110 vs JDAM-ER's 70 km, but it's also for high altitude launch.
I wouldn't even bother with that thought, but as US surprisingly put that much of an effort to giving UA the SEAD capability, I think there's a reason and it will be followed up by something. Otherwise what's the point? Of course the goal might just be a more permissive environment for Bayraktars and other drones, but I think there might be more here. The sale of Azerbaijani LGBs for Su-25 is a bit telling I think, these are even riskier to use than JDAMs and yet UA is getting them. 
Perhaps bridgehead is the better analogy when we look into more recent historical analogies, I agree. I thought about siege cause earlier (well, looking to the times of the Commonwealth, not Mongolians) fighting in the steppes more often than not took the form of sieges, which might be a bit counter-intuitive for anyone not  familiar with the place and period. Fixed fortification weren't that common and usually would only serve as a base to creating a system of field fortification/ armed camp. It usually wouldn't be the full proper siege too, with circumvellation and contravellation of the besieged position, as there just wasn't enough men and spaces were too vast and open (sounds familiar?  ). Instead the fight was more mobile, the sides would bombard each other, fight a series of skirmishes and sorties and try to intercept the supply convoys. 
First battle of Khotyn is a great example of how that worked.

This popped up on another site I follow and seems a pretty good explanation of what has been done with the AGM-88
The chap seems to have a good knowledge of what the different uses are and what is possible if attached to a non NATO plane.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556751670402596865
 

Well, how about the JDAM-ER kits then? AFAIK these are in service already, and for sure can be manufactured really easily, basically being just a wing kit attached to regular JDAM. And with range of 70km, I'd think attacking targets on the frontline should be relatively safe. Pure speculation of course, but if US is going to invest in UA planes (as is clearly is already) I'd think that would be the next step, with quite "gamechanging" potential.
Also a general thought that with HARM appearing in UA, we see another case of slowly crossing the escalation threshold. First HARMs appeared there, Amraams (ground launched for now) are on the way. Next might be some other A2G ordnance, and then a small number of F-16 suddenly won't bother anybody that much. Then number of airframes increases. We saw the same mechanism in the work a few times already.
 
Edit: oh, and more stuff is going UA way, from quite unexpected direction. Erdogan is surely trying to milk two cows at once:
 

HARM is inertially guided with terminal radar-seeking. It doesn't need a lock to be fired.

http://www.ausairpower.net/API-AGM-88-HARM.html
Based on the wreckage, it is also the AGM-88D, which has GPS guidance supplementing the inertial guidance. This allows it to accurately hit radar emitters even after they have been turned off.

 
 

It is even worse.
Due to info from Friday the loss of control in Pisky most likely was just retreat from forward defensive position to the main. The main was just far away and nobody knew about the main until much later. All together It created impression that UKR defense was collapsing. RU avoids assaulting fortified positions. Neither Pisky main position, no Bridge republic not Anthil neither taken nor assaulted yet. RU looks like they intentionally avoid assaulting defended positions. Just wait till arty levels the hole place and UKR leaves. 

You are correct. RU Nats are completely silent about Anthill. Also due to RU comments I believe they hit hard Bridge Republic but did not attempt to take it. So, it is contested in my book (there should be still some UKR forces, but I suspect they will not hold full scale assault). Also, UKR are still holding heavily fortified main defensive position. 
I am still preoccupied with family staff, so I took DefMon map and corrected it.

 

UA uses Romanian 122mm ammo produced in 2022. I wonder if CEE countries combined can outproduce Russia when it comes to artillery ammo. At least  when combined with NATO 155, the answer has to be yes.. While RU has the vast stores of USSR, they will run out at some point, and will have to sustain themselves  with what can be produced. Another argument that long war is RU doom.
 

For last 3-4 days General Staff reported about destroying of 17 SAM launchers and radars, mostly on Kherson direction. Looks like at least a part of such results can be explained with HARMs  

The range for ground-launched Standard ARM was described as "several dozen km", which has a 90 km range when air-launched. HARM has an air-launched range > 111 km.

Yes that's the one I was referring to.

@Vet 0369

The 120mm RTF-1 = Rayé, Tracté Modèle F-1 (stands for Rifled, Towed, Model F-1). Its role is almost that of a howitzer because it serves as specialized artillery (no longer attributed to the infantry but to the artillery) and serves to fill the absence of fire support at "short" range where the CAESAR is long range. Its rifles turning to the right gives it better stability and above all a derivation of the shell (we are talking about shells like a cannon, OE-120 = Obus Explosif 120mm (means Explosive Shell 120mm)) known, which makes it easier to calculate.

120mm and CAESAR mortars are still paired in the French army. A gunner knows how to use a CAESAR as well as a 120mm mortar. In general, during deployments of a battery, one of the two platoons uses the CAESAR, the other the 120mm mortar. Conversely, in Afghanistan for example, our platoon being often in a rather defensive role had both mortars and CAESARs in the FOB and used one or the other depending on the distance.

Russia's force projection in the Caucasus is down to nil:
 

Russia's force projection in the Caucasus is down to nil:
 

FancyCat already posted a tweet linking to this, but I think it's worth posting more detail: The Bellingcat report on the latest Russian torture/murder videos is out. I'll quote the introduction as a summary; TL;DR:
1. The primary suspect is a Siberian ethnic minority fighting alongside Chechens.
2. It looks like the Russians considered charging him, but changed their mind and claimed that it was Ukrainian soldiers who tortured and murdered the Ukrainian victim.
Tracking the Faceless Killers who Mutilated and Executed a Ukrainian POW
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/08/05/tracking-the-faceless-killers-who-mutilated-and-executed-a-ukrainian-pow/
 
And a new atrocity:
 

Russians are moving to South through Cremean bridge own newest PP-91M (other name PP-2005) pontoon park. Main visual difference - KAMAZ trucks as carriers instead KRAZ or Ural.
PP-2205 can maintain 268 m pontoon bridge (32 pontoon chains + 4 coast chains) for weights in 60-90-120 tons. It's possible to build two lesser bridges from one PP-2005 or to build big britge in 572 m from two PP-2005
Also it can maintain ferries in different configurations for weights up to 720 tons. For this purpose pontoon park has 6 MZ-330 motorized chains
For moving pontoons and other utility purposes PM-2005 has also 4 tugboats BMK-225
Since 2017 at least three PP-2005 were received by Russian army.

Pierce Brosnan will always be my favourite Bond.
Seriously, who doesn't love that tank chase sequence from GoldenEye? 😁
 

It is possible to like both...and even to have room left over for submarines.

On Donetsk direction operates at least one group of PzH2000 or M109 155mm howitzers. This was found in Kirovskiy district of Donetsk. In comments somebody answered this is submunition for SMART 155 rounds
 
 
 

Zero surprise here. Putin is indeed a master strategist:
 

Wow, wow, wow, cowboy, hold your horses! The situation is not getting worse. It might appear as such for public that does not study my maps but in reality, it is not.
RU reached outskirts of Travneve around 2-Aug and till 4-Aug there were fighting in and around the village. On 4-Aug UKR were out of village but continued to contest the area. Right now UKR stopped contesting the village as it does not make any sense (see below)  Gladosove does not seem to be an important village (there were no any significant RU attacks at all there). It was taken probably due to UKR general withdrawal from the area.  Vesela Dolymna village as under RU attacks from 31-jul. There were fighting on 2-Aug and 4-Aug. Right now RU is probably capturing it due to general UKR withdrawal.  The situation is not getting worse. It is just enemy assault is progressing. As I said on 4-aug RU main force in the North grinded through UKR forward defense and now engaging main UKR defenses of this area in outskirts of Bakhmut and Soledar (possibly  Kodema as well but I have insufficient info wether Kodema is fortified). Thats why you see UKR forces pulling forces back and blowing some bridges - they are making new forward defensive zone shifting everything behind it.
It will be like this for some time - RU pushes, UKR resisting as long as they can then withdrew. So far, I would be concerned if RU breakthrough Soledar or Kodema (boiler in Bukhmut) or Pisky-Vodyano (boiler in Advdyivka). However Pisky is still holding. Soledar is tough nut to crack (see my intro to Soledar battlefield with RU current location and UKR probable main defensive area). It leaves us only with Kodema as source of concern
If you can please tell us something about Kodema.