Kinophile

So the way I think through this is that the country with the biggest drone budget wins. Whoever can field the most UAV and C-UAV will control the battlespace and everyone else is toast. Therefore if you aren't the largest economy in the world you need to figure something else out. So the natural response will be nuclear proliferation as that is the only trump card left in the deck at that point and if you don't have nukes you are defenseless. 
I guess this is a good thing for defense budgets as all other systems can be scrapped and most countries will only have to maintain a few ICBMs. I reckon we can all look forward to a unprecedented period of peace among mankind or nuclear annihilation. 

Isn't the number one thing that the UA troops were saying was the game changer for recent battles the glide bombing? 
This correlates to the drone discussion as that is what drones can't deliver yet: LARGE amounts of HE. They also can't support long range C4ISR like a HIMARS can. They don't have the kill radius that those tungsten balls do either. 
I'll give FPVs their due as they are the only indirect option that has proven effective on moving targets close to the front. That is where they are very useful is right on the front and close behind it. Anything deeper than that is a toss up. Look at the last airfield strike where quite a few long range UAV's went in. If you had a choice between that many UAV's or the same number of ATACMS, Tomahawks, or Storm Shadows which would you take? Which would give you the most damage and loss to the enemy?
Now that will lead into the what is available question, and that is where this war is a disconnect between the ground in Ukraine and if the US was prosecuting the same conflict: resources. The UA has had to develop the UAVs and FPVs in order to fill a gap that is not present for the US. A thousand pages ago a lot of us agreed that C4ISR and ammo to hit the targets equals success. The UA has been starving for ammo. If we really want to test the theory of where these weapon systems fit into the future, give the UA the platforms and the ammo and see where the drones get meshed in. My bet is company level and below integral fire support and recon. 
For those reasons I don't believe that the UAV's will usurp the other systems, but they will become complementary. I do believe they will be very significantly expanded and should be prolific on the fire team to company level, but I don't see how in their current form they can replace 50lbs of explosive and fragmentation 50 or more kms away in a matter of minutes. 
The defensive primacy will only last until there are effective drone countermeasures, whatever they may be. Once that is done, those layered indirect fire platforms and the other members of the traditional combined arms will be back on deck to make things happen. 

Well no, AIUI it (lack of readily available ammunition) was a major factor in the craking of the Ukrainian lines. The sheer number, duration and dimensions of RUS infantry assaults required far more arty than was provided. 
There were at least two major positions on the northern "shoulders" in lost because of lack of fires support. 
This didn't get better and eventually was a significant factor. Ukraine just couldn't kill and suppress the Rus infantry in sufficient numbers. 

Well no, AIUI it (lack of readily available ammunition) was a major factor in the craking of the Ukrainian lines. The sheer number, duration and dimensions of RUS infantry assaults required far more arty than was provided. 
There were at least two major positions on the northern "shoulders" in lost because of lack of fires support. 
This didn't get better and eventually was a significant factor. Ukraine just couldn't kill and suppress the Rus infantry in sufficient numbers. 

It's far more than that. Try 10 times more.  €14-17m /pzh. 
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/how_much_a_modern_155_mm_spg_gun_costs_now_examples_of_the_german_pzh2000_korean_k9_and_french_caesar-6251.html
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000
By contrast the truck mounted Caesar / Archers are €3-4m / €4.5m. That's a far more useful price, lead-in times and replacability. This would put artillery back into the argument. The current price of 155mm is more a factor of ****ty policies and economic opportunism (demand >supply) than reflective of the actual cost of materials and labour. A proper wartime economy could absolutely churn out dumb 155 at a far lower cost, and probably guided shells too (through sheer scale of production). 
The all weather factor for artillery is definitely a plus over FPV and no matter what, the kinetic and explosive effect of a 155mm plunging from a big F-off height will never be matched by an FPV, cos physics. Modern Caesar and Archers can deliver very accurate salvos from just one gun at about 40km distance, within a few minutes, EW and weather be damned. 
The twilight of the MBT is upon us, but big guns will always have a singular use - massive effect on target in a very short time frame from really far away. 
But they must be mobile, relatively light (weight & logistics) and probably need their own organic drone spotting squad. 

That one I am not so sure of. Setting aside the darkness surrounding a full Russian state collapse, that you have appropriately pointed out, it seems to me that China is actually the one in a position to benefit from that. At least in their near border area they are in a place that the could take over (directly or by proxy) and stabilize huge portions of the country to their exclusive benefit.
Then considering the darkness that may result form a full state collapse China is also the one least effected by those concerns. They have far better and more ruthless control over what nerdowells get up to inside their country and given they could likely stabilize a large portion of the country for their benefit they might skate on the downside of a state wide collapse.

There are two issues here. 
Ju-87 were not military next-to-useless. This is not me being contrary - its well established and researched that in the initial years of the war, and when the Luftwaffe in general was dominant, that the Stuka was highly effective and useful in its intended role - striking enemy strong points and armor formations. They were very effective in France, Greece and the 1st-2nd years of Barbarossa. As the war went on conditions changed and pilot attrition, increased enemy AA and better Allied planes, tactics and numbers all forced the Stuka out as a viable platform. Even so, the weaker skilled Soviet Airforce meant that Stukas were viable for longer than in the West.
This wasn't just an Axis issue - dive bombers in the Pacific gradually faded back as surface warships increased their AA weaponry, specialist AA Cruisers came into being, as the Japanese surface navy was attritted into a glorified armed coast guard and as better weapons came online.
Secondly, V1s (but really V2s later) were never intended as battlefield weapons, so we cant don't an apples-to-apples comparison here. They were a long range strategic terror weapon, intended to flatten London, terrorize the British into negotiations and thereby buy Hitler time. He personally held the idea that the UK might actually cease fire but AIUI I don't think anyone else shared that as a real possibility.
Just some nitpicky stuff to keep us accurate 

There are two issues here. 
Ju-87 were not military next-to-useless. This is not me being contrary - its well established and researched that in the initial years of the war, and when the Luftwaffe in general was dominant, that the Stuka was highly effective and useful in its intended role - striking enemy strong points and armor formations. They were very effective in France, Greece and the 1st-2nd years of Barbarossa. As the war went on conditions changed and pilot attrition, increased enemy AA and better Allied planes, tactics and numbers all forced the Stuka out as a viable platform. Even so, the weaker skilled Soviet Airforce meant that Stukas were viable for longer than in the West.
This wasn't just an Axis issue - dive bombers in the Pacific gradually faded back as surface warships increased their AA weaponry, specialist AA Cruisers came into being, as the Japanese surface navy was attritted into a glorified armed coast guard and as better weapons came online.
Secondly, V1s (but really V2s later) were never intended as battlefield weapons, so we cant don't an apples-to-apples comparison here. They were a long range strategic terror weapon, intended to flatten London, terrorize the British into negotiations and thereby buy Hitler time. He personally held the idea that the UK might actually cease fire but AIUI I don't think anyone else shared that as a real possibility.
Just some nitpicky stuff to keep us accurate 

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-hit-russian-unmanned-mining-system/

UK trying to cover all the bases as Lord Cameron visits Mar-a-Lago, Biden administration officials, and Members of Congress, presumably the ones swallowing the Russian propaganda that need convincing.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/david-cameron-donald-trump-us-aid-ukraine-russia-war-h3w687nkb
As for Russian propaganda, some comments from rational Republicans in Congress on that subject:
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4579289-intel-chair-turner-absolutely-true-russia-propaganda-infected-us-congress/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/06/when-top-republican-says-russian-propaganda-has-infected-gop/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Not that this is any great surprise, but it is refreshing to hear at least some Republicans calling out their colleagues for promoting misinformation.
For The Times and WaPo, I have subscriptions, but I think you still get a certain number of free looks per month without a subscription. If you can't and really want to read them, PM me and I may be able to "gift" the article to you.

Dave
 

Actual, actual....

FSRU Marshal Portovyy out of Kaliningrad (whose pipeline has not been cut off) offloads its cargo at sea to LNG tanker Cool Rover. Which ships the contraband gas to buyers who care less about its provenance than its price.
If [unnnamed Formites] want to act 'wised up' (woke?) about 'strategic global resources', perhaps focus on the stuff that actually moves the needle on balance of trade today.
That would (still) be stuff the belligerents can put in a pipe or a ship or a train and send where it gets the highest price.
Los!

Magyar drone slips into a crack in the brickwork and brings a house down.
In case someone wondered where urban combat and fortifications are heading.

https://thediplomat.com/2024/04/what-chinese-navy-planners-are-learning-from-ukraines-use-of-unmanned-surface-vessels/
Ukraine USV lessons are being absorbed worldwide... 

Leonardo Da Vinci made one of these I think.
.
 

Apologies if this has already been posted. Having a hard time keeping up and just skimming. 
 
Three drone hits on the unit 6 containment dome. No real damage ( containments are VERY strong), but this is still not great. The reactors are all shut down at least, but decay heat and spent fuel still exist and must be mitigated. 
 
Really you could do more damage hitting infrastructure OUTSIDE the containment, like incoming power lines, diesel generators, secondary water supply equipment from the river/lake. Containment? “‘‘Tis but a scratch”
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-drone-a28710a691f3259b5dd6586787838b60
Dave

Just fixed that for you..
😉
This war is giving the West a serious edge against China and its Russian knock off copies...
We can see what is working and we can re-tool and re-arm quicker than China.
This war has stopped China dead on its plans to invade Taiwan as they have seen how badly a 3 day war can go.
We are getting real time updates on what works and does not as we are embedded with Ukraine.
How close are the Chinese military with Ukraine?
Do you think China can magically change it's whole military based upon the Russian knock off kit?
The weapons America had in store have now been disposed of at a fraction of the cost it would have needed to
The kit was designed to deal with Russia and less so China so it is being used for what it was bought for.
American jobs and economy is winning because we are buying more of the kit and it works!!!
You really do need to think through this - It is a no brainer for America!!
Finland / Estonia / Poland are not going to stop giving support any time soon.
France and Germany are another thing but currently show no sign of backing down...
 
 

The story with Tsar-EW-tank got a continue.
After Russian attack was repelled, additional recon showed that this tank hadn't critical damages and can be moved to our positions as valuable source, because almost all Russian portable anti-drone EW assets were mounted which just were possible. It's turned out our FPV damaged only targeting system, then a tank tracks stuck in barbed wire with attached AT-mines, tank lost control, crashed into disabled BMP and stopped - the crew abandoned tank. 
During several nights two "Azov" tankers have been providing reparing works. They unlocked driver's hatch, because a gun was directly under it, then they changed a 70 kg battery, which brought from own positions - this work should be done by three men, but they did it together. Then they unraveled and cut the wire on the tracks and removed a mine under the tank. All this in the nights and not in calm situation - one night Russians tried to recapture tank, sending a group on the bikes (!!!), but it was eliminated. 
After all "Azov" tankers turned on engine and drove to own positions in Terny. But on the route the tank in the darkness fell into bomb crater, the driver hit head and lost consciousness. Fortunately he came to senses soon and could drive out the crater. Tank arrived to Terny, where the crew already awaited Serhiy "Flash" - admin of FB/TG channel about EW and communication systems. On the photo below he already researhes trophy equipmnent
    
 

This is something I am really interested to see and have been thinking about a lot.
I think the strategic level games will remain fairly similar, although the fun challenge remains. For instance something like Afghanistan '11 incorporated a hearts and minds mechanic, but we now know how successful that wasn't in reality. If we see "Ukraine '24" as a proxy war between Russia and "the west", then the strategic-level elements are going to need to be even more macro, with additional "undermining democracy and eroding support" mechanics that target people in a whole nother hemisphere. This might make for a good grand strategy game but it feels a little depressing as a wargame, because it's a random factor whose outcome can't be linked to the decisions the player is making as a general in the theater.
On the tactical level you could argue that real-world technology is finally catching up to what gamers have been privilege to since the beginning - a magical eye-in-the-sky view of the battlefield, a perfect memory of every unit that allowed themselves to be seen, an ability to target specific "squares" with indirect fire even when there isn't a spotter on the ground... But right now with the relatively static front lines it seems like there isn't really any "fun" stuff to sim. Even if it was a drone-based sim, having a scenario where your start and end positions are exactly the same but one side just lost a bit less hardware than the other doesn't really feel like a win, regardless of what impact it might have in the longer arc of the war.
Perhaps a more interesting tactical level sim at the current level of drone warfare would be deep strike ops. Something structured like Phantom Doctrine but with drones sinking ships or bombing oil refineries instead of human spies infiltrating buildings. I guess it's easier to come up with a game-like structure when there is a clear success condition. We might have to wait till the end of this war to understand what that could look like in a CM-style infantry/ground tactics sim.

However it certainly seems to be hardening. 

Within reason there are only two players in this fight who are actually implementing battlefield developments.
Even Western weapons are only provided as-is, with the ZSU doing the additional original work in implementation.
WRT Drones Russia is really only a copycat of UKR cutting edge TTP. 

Within reason there are only two players in this fight who are actually implementing battlefield developments.
Even Western weapons are only provided as-is, with the ZSU doing the additional original work in implementation.
WRT Drones Russia is really only a copycat of UKR cutting edge TTP. 

There is an opinion TG Kremlin Secrets (more literally Kremlin Snuffbox) is UKR PsyOps channel, so it may contain classical 40% of true and 60% of lie. 

Possibly 4 airfields