Degsy

A link to Mark Galeotti's latest podcast, on the death of Prigozhin. He starts, "today I wanted to talk about agriculture in the Tver region, and what must be the expectation of a truly bumper crop, given the amount of bull**** being spread around following the crash of Evgenii Prigozhin's jet..." In Moscows Shadows-112-Goodbye Prigozhin

Twitter - Jason Jay Smart Interesting series of tweets purporting to show vehicles leaving Belgorod, helos flying over the area and a stack of printed ballot papers on a proposed referendum asking the locals, “Do you think Belgorod should leave the Russian Federation and become the independent Belgorod People’s Republic?” ballotBelg.jfif

Mark Herman (who designed Gulf Strike) is designing a commercial board wargame on the first months of the 2022 invasion. Article here > First draft of history and it shows the draft game map and some of the game materials. The article doesn't say who the piblisher will be, but the game is due out early next year. The thread on Board Game Geek has a useful link to some of the other professional games being played or designed. The thread is here > Boardgame geek: modeling ongoing conflict

A short video of Tatarskii at a Kremlin reception last year. Here's the approximate translation of what he says, "Hi to everyone from Georges Hall. Here are the names of our regiments that fought and beat different bitches. In short, 200 years ago we took all of Europe and bent them over, and this time it will be the same again, we’ve got everything going for us - not just some abstract allied forces but a Russia with nuclear weapons, with an army, with the mobilisation, that’s going to happen so that we can arm ourselves. Anyway we're going to give it a go, because we won't get a second chance. I congratulate everyone who’s made it this far. We will conquer everyone, we will kill everyone, we will steal everything we need and everything will be the way we like it. Go with God."

Podcast - The Russian Volunteer Corps An interview with Michael Colborne, the head of the Bellingcat Monitoring Project, about the RVC, its leader Denis Nikitin, and the recent cross border raid. The time stamps are:- (3:56) What is the Russian Volunteer Corps and who is Denis Nikitin? (13:49) What is Denis Nikitin’s ideology? (20:19) The ties between the Russian Volunteer Corps and Ukraine’s Armed Forces (24:23) Previous border incursions into the Bryansk region (30:57) Probably not a Russian false flag

"Russian media reports that Russian nationalist mercenary Igor Mangushev, who called for the genocide of Ukrainians, performed on stage with the skull of an alleged defender of Mariupol, and was shot in the skull under unclear circumstances, died in the hospital. https://t.co/pLon0oBvxC — NOËL (@NOELreports) February 8, 2023" More information about Mangushev's shooting in the latest Mark Galeotti podcast here "In Moscows Shadows". Start listening at the 9 minute mark. In summary, Mangushev's car was shot up at a checkpoint presumably to stop it, then he received a 9mm bullet in the back of his head, fired down at an angle of 45 degrees. So, either suicide or Alternative Dispute Resolution по русски then.

It's just been officcially confirmed that Britain will be sending "about a dozen" Challenger 2's to Ukraine. BBC News "The UK's prime minister has confirmed the UK will provide Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine in a call with President Zelensky Rishi Sunak says the tanks will help Ukraine's forces "push Russian troops back" President Zelensky has thanked the UK for making decisions that "will not only strengthen us on the battlefield, but also send the right signal to other partners"

An interview today with British Defence Minister Ben Wallace about continuing British support for Ukraine generally and about the British, Danish, Dutch and Norwegian joint fund of 600m Euros to buy eqpt or ammo. He's cagey about what weapons we're going to supply, "Russia would love to know what weapons we may or may not put into Ukraine", but unequivocal about the continuing support. And about Russian threats - "...Russia can be angry all it likes but I've got friends and they haven't..." Times Radio interview - Ben Wallace

Another short Channel 4 report, this time focussing on artillery and front line medical support. On the frontline of Ukraine's artillery war.

Link to a 30+ minute podcast interview with Rob Lee - The Naked Pravda podcast - Ukraine Timestamps for this episode: (2:38) What’s so special about HIMARS, or High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems? (10:22) What other advanced weapons could give Ukraine new advantages in the war? (14:57) What’s the military impact of Russia’s airstrikes against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure? (18:57) How far might Ukraine’s counteroffensive reach into occupied territory? Will Russian defenses hold at some point? (25:19) Is the Russian military regrouping or on the verge of collapse? (27:41) What happened with the missile(s) that recently killed two civilians in Poland? (30:26) Is Russia going to run out of rockets or ammunition?

Extract from an article (paywalled unfortunately) in the Spectator, based on operational data from the Ukrainian military. The whole article is here: Article - Why didn't Ukraine fall. ..."However, the operational data reveals that 90 per cent of Ukrainian UAVs flown before July were lost, mainly to electronic warfare. The average life expectancy of a quadcopter was three flights. The average life expectancy of a fixed wing UAV was six flights. Surviving a flight does not mean a successful mission; electronic warfare can disrupt command links, navigation and sensors, which can cause the UAV to fail to fix a target. Contrary to the narrative, Russian EW has been successful on the battlefield. Instead, what has proved decisive is the sheer number of drones that Ukraine has been able to deploy. The most useful UAVs, according to the data, are cheap fixed wing models. This is not because they are difficult to defeat but because they are inefficient to target, flying too high for short-range air defences while being too inexpensive to engage with medium or long-range systems."

"Inside the Ukrainian resistance" "...Last week saw more mass “filtrations” ... in reality (it) means that occupying forces violently interrogated locals and then deported many to Russia. It’s a system designed for both simplicity and cruelty: cars and trucks and troops arrive in the villages, and then either take locals to a special “facility” or dig a large hole and stuff them in it. The goal is always the same: to turn them into collaborators...yet at the same time, the Russians also try to ingratiate themselves. Key to their efforts is the concept of what they call “swift justice”. The principle is simple: justice through the courts can take forever, so why not let them deliver it instead? Of course, it’s also a way of legitimising violence. Soldiers now accept “complaints” from locals and when they break into houses and administer more beatings, they can say they are merely responding to citizen requests." The Russians still have some way to go understanding the whole 'Hearts and Minds' concept.

Boris's visit today to Kiev. British MoD announcement about UK led training for Ukrainian soldiers. "....Each soldier would spend three weeks on the training course, learning battle winning skills for the front line, as well as basic medical training, cyber-security and counter explosive tactics. Alongside the training offer, the leaders also discussed how the UK can play a pivotal role in ending the blockade of grain..." I hope it's two way training because I suspect we've got a lot to learn from them as well.

Interesting Youtube discussion from 3rd May about Ukraine with US generals McMaster and Hodges (former commander of USAEUR). They talk about amongst other things, the likelihood of nuclear escalation, Russian performance so to date, the lack of Rus cyber warfare so far, the surprisingly long lead time for US manufacturers to produce fresh systems like Javelin, and perceived failings on the Ukrainian side. Those failings were seen as weak logistics chains, taking too much time to activate the TDF, and lack of ammunition for the Russian legacy 122 and 152 arty. You can judge their conclusion from the title of the vid, but they make the point that it's going to be long and bloody road to get there. "Ukraine is going to end up winning" - McMaster and Hodges discussion.

Interview with captured Russian airborne soldier. A video of a captured Russian soldier from 31st Airborne Assault Brigade, who was part of the first wave to attack (presumably) Hostomel, and is the only survivor of his company. He doesn't appear to be coerced and amongst other things (a) says that the individual soldiers weren't briefed about the mission until they were on the helicopters inbound for the attack (b) describes the effects of Ukrainian artillery on his unit (c) describes another company being merged with his own because their combat losses (d) gives his opinion about his units level of training. The interview is 25 minutes long, subtitled,and repays watching.