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melm

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Everything posted by melm

  1. http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages\P\E\PetroofKyivMetropolitan.htm Here is a piece of entry regarding the key figure of the topic.
  2. There is more than bribing. In 2018, Constantinople Patriarch granted Ukranian Orthodox Church "independence" status, which is objected by Russian Orthodox Church(or Moscow Patriachate) because UKR Church is used to be supervised by the ROC(The see moved to Moscow in AD 1325). Then this leads to 2018 schism. I am not suprised to see ROC agrees with Putin's action because they may regard UKR Church as a separarist.
  3. Check 19/. He posted his sources for the map. I didn't check the accuracy but his one is quite popular.
  4. The brigade facing 20th CAA doesn't seem in good situation.
  5. Russo-sympathy administration? No. US may not deeply involved in the conflict, but such administration couldn't happen. Maybe one will be labelled as "Russo-sympathizer" but that's just some political stuff.
  6. Very probable except 5 and 7. I doubt Chinese government will urge Zelenskyy to accept Russian terms. The most probable stance is asking both sides(perhaps all sides that are interested in the crisis) to 'talk'. An useless stance to improve the situation but I bet China will keep such stance. And it's highly improbable that China will involve in the separatists' referendum because it has its own separatists' problem too. That's why it keeps claiming that China supports the territory integrity of Ukraine. The war actually is undermining China's economic interest as China is Ukraine's largest trading partner. However, China won't condemn Russian invasion as long as it needs Russian gas and if Sino-US relationship keeps deteriorating.
  7. Are they willing to give them up? They may still have tension with Turkey.
  8. Perhaps it's written by 'former' FSB employee. But it contains no other information besides the public. The rest is just some deduction.
  9. UAV targeting Russians' artillery seems a good counter-measure. So far, it seems the Russian air defense systems are useless against UAV raid.
  10. I'm bothered by this thought too. What if Putin surround Kyiv and ask the citizens to leave, otherwise, he'll flatten the city to occupy? What can citizens do? Horrible. I just feel so helpless.
  11. Not every statement that some Ukranians do not agree is Russian propaganda. There is WESTERN academic system studying on the history for long time, which is neither pro Russia nor pro Ukraine. If you want me to explain the history of Russia and Ukraine, their culture connection, and why Ukraine uses the trident symbol on their coat of arms, it will be very long. There are quite a lot publications on this topic, so don't worry about their views' independency. I can't imagine that they are all controlled by the Russians. BTW, in fact, Czech and Germany has culture connection.
  12. Sorry, this goes too far for me. It sounds like historical revisionism.
  13. It IS the right terms. If you wiki the term, “Thermobaric weapon" entry lists three names including "vacuum bomb".
  14. Definitely not that optimistic. The info may predict UKR will lose some territory(not all at least) and no ability to drive all the Russians to their home.
  15. I didn't know Steve got an economics degree.
  16. Thanks for the post. I enjoy your seminar notes very much. It's my familiar academic taste when I was working on my PhD. I hold the same "not that optimistic" view with the professors you've mentioned in your note. And I am afraid that when Putin faces hard time, the war will go more brutal, which is the last thing I want to see.
  17. Yeah. Your words perfectly explained why Lukashenko chose to side with Putin this time.
  18. Perhaps you missed Belarus massive demonstration in 2020, that Lukashenko was asked to step down. West of course supports the demonstrators. This is the turning point for Belarus to go east, instead of staying neutral.
  19. You can check the tomhawk's video on youtube. Its warhead is 450kg, smaller than Russian Kalibr.
  20. The destruction looks too small if the hitting projectile is a cruise missile. It must be something else.
  21. Yes, I know the 1994 memorandum. I am not so sure that it's still obligatory for each side. To be honest, it's already violated by the invasion. Any escalation can happen.
  22. Turkey used to border Soviet and its position has already allowed the nuclear missiles having full effect. This is actually what I loathe. One side wants to be safer than the other. Then escalation becomes inevitable. Perhaps that's because I am a generation born after cold war that I already feel safe.
  23. Why nuclear weapons are not allowed in Cuba? And if UKR joins NATO, nothing stops UKR has nuclear weapons as Turkey already has.
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