hcrof

Aftermath of M30A1 close hit on Russian S-400 radar
 

Not only ATACAMS.
France will deliver Aster-30 missiles for single SAMP-T complex, recently handed over to Ukriane
 
UK in own aid package will deliver Paveway IV 
... And what also important alot of equipment for State Emergency Service
 

This night UKR UAVs successfully hit next two oil bases in Smolensk oblast
In Lipetsk oblast, particilarly was struck Novolipestk steelworks plant, producing 18 % of overall Russian steel. This plant also produce many armor steel for military purpose and already was hit several months ago. This time drones destroyed oxigen feeding workshop, which may cause disruping of some technological processes.

About the influence of Russia & China into German politics: both the number 1 & 2 for the upcoming vote for the EU parliament of our local fascist party AfD are under the suspicion of taking Russian money. Additionally, the head of the office of #1 has been detained for being a Chinese spy.
And people still vote for them: they get about 15-30% (depending on state). If we had only two parties, I guess the political landscape wouldn't be much different than in the US.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3754238/biden-administration-announces-significant-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
 

This.
+their PsyOps campaign targeting "illegitimacy" of Zelenskyi after 31st of May. GUR chief Budanov told today that "hard times await Ukraine in second half of May and June, but nothing apocaliptic will happen" - and he meant i.e. Russian attempt to rise "Maidan-3", especially if this is accompanied by front failures and further destruction of power generation.  
Russians wrote most of UKR tanks moved on rear lines further from Lancets. They episodically move to zero line - to support infantry if need and roll back. Though, you can see regularly UKR tank and light armor losses in Oryx team reports, so they still in use. Now is a time of infantry and drone war. Why too few videos of artillery usage? Lack of the shells. Serviceman of 43rd arty brigade (PzH2000 + Pions) wrote they have so few shells, that mostly maintain own vehicles, than fire. Also in conditions of shells lack almost all UKR artilelry battalions obtain FPV pilots speciality - this gives them opportunity to hit the enemy, though not on so big ranges, like with guns.  

Hard sitauation we have also in Krasnohorivka town north to occupied Maryinka. Several days ago Russians could break through of our rare artilery fire and drones and despite some losses in vehicles landed infantry in southern and south-eastern part of the town. Russians seized railway station area - this is area of dachas and private cottages, also Russian infantry was too few to continue advance. But we also had few infantry to clear this territory. Russians became to use their usual tactic of gradual forces accumulation in captured area for new further burst. Reportedly yesterday UKR troops again threw out Russians from SE part of Krasnohotivka and partially from southern part, recapturing railway stattion. But today Russians again slightly advanced in southern part of the town. BTW southern part is the contested area, because there too hard hold the ground for both sides. Main stronghold of UKR trrops (by Russian opinion) is a local fireproof structures plant, which Russian aviation "processes" with 500 kg and 1500 kg KABs. 
 

Russian MoD rises money award for enlisting motivation to space levels. 
Soldier from Robotyne direction writes:
We take a captive. He says they get 700 000 rubles of additional payment for first coming to assault. They usually don't come back from these assaults, but who thinks about this...
So, any Russian, who enlists got a money for contract signing - from 650 000 to 1100000 depending of region (initially was 500 000 in all regions). This is 6900 - 17000 $. Than he gest monthly 250000 (initially was 200000) - 2600 $. And at last for first assault (I don't know how much shared this practice) he gets 700 000 - 7500 $
This is unprecedented money for most Russians, especally from outbacks. 

Russian attacks activity on different directions for a week.
Kupiansk after Free-Russia units remains calm (6 attacks).
Lyman-Terny is activating again (64 attacks)
Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vuhledar directions consistently high activity

Meanwhile frontline situation still hard.
On Vuhledar direction Russians seized western part of completely destroyed Novomykhailivka village

On Avdiivka sector after UKR successfull conter-attack 2-3 days ago, allowed to recapture lost positions in eastern part ot the Ocheretyne town, yesterday unnamed UKR unit in front of the face of next Russian attack along railways just abandoned positions and Russians again seized part of Ocheretyne, but in this time in south-eastern part. UKR command was forced to throw in the battle elements of 47th mech.brigade, which was partially moved to second line for short rest. 
Russians have choosen Ocheretyne as priority objective now and use here the same tactic like in Chasiv Yar. Unlike Wagner during the battles for Soledar and Bakhmut with a tactic of multiple small group attacks, with continous changing of these attack directions, Russians now use strong flanks pressure - this doesn't lead to decisive results without concentration of forces on one direction, but in conditions of personnel and aartillery support lack of UKR forces, this method hampers our reserve manuevers. 

Russians after short rest have thrown in the battle units of 41st CAA on the section Novokalynove - Ocheretyne - Berdychi.  This did for consolidation of battle orders and widening of offensive line in area where 30th motror-rifle brigade of 2nd CAA operates on Ocheretyne and create a narrow salient, which can be in theory attacked by UKR forces from north and south. To avoid this 35th motor-rifle brigade of 41st CAA now entered in offensive line of 2nd CAA from the north in Novokalynove area and 74th motor-rifle brigade in Berdychi area on the south  
Around Chasiv Yar Russians desperately try to breakthrough toward two sections of canal, where it flows under the ground, so there are two section about in 1 km wide each, where they can cross the canal and outflank the town from north and south. Soldiers report from there Russians gathered there many "meat", likely their command has an order to seize Chasiv Yar on 9th of May. 

Some time ago this was biosphere reservation "Sribnianskyi forest" (Kreminna area). Complete devastation. Filmed by "Azov" brigade on retaken positions.
CM should have this type of trees after period of intensive shellings - just a standing or falling down barrels without branches and leaves. 
 
 

Soviet Union/Russia always had strong artilery school, so they hadn't enough problems with new young officers graduatins and new personnel trainig. Implementing of differnt UAVs and PDAs (though Russians to this time coldn't create something similar by functionality like UKR Kropyva or Delta info systems) in more wide scale than in 2022 allows Russian artillery in theory to increase own capabilities. In real Russians still to take by advantage of barrels. Russians complained on terrible quality of N.Korea ammunition for guns and mortars - their charges have weights, which may significantly differ each of other, so rang of fire can variate and you don't know where along the range this shell will impact. Russian gunners now forced manally unpack charges and equalize powder weight in delivered batch of shells. But even after this due to bad quality of producing these shells often hit out of estimated disperse ellips. 
The same issues, but in much less scale are about Russian-made ammunition. Iranian in somne cases even better that Russian. 
The range of Russian systems didn't change, though there were spotted some modern Chineese 122 mm shells with incresed on 2 km range. So, most of their counter battrey activity are Lancets, Tornado-S/Smerch or even Iskander-M in case of HIMARS/CAESAR/Archer.

As I could understand, long google-translated post reflects common trends in current artillery usage. That part, which was translated by me, reflects a situation in particular regiment.
What I can add, Russians mostly still work with batteries in 4-6 pieces, but they now try to disperse guns by platoons or singke guns. Albeit, not always. Several days ago "Magyar" issued a video how UKR FPVs took out four 2A65 howitzers on one firing position

Russians gradually have been learing of Ukrainian experience of artillery fire control. If in 2022  - mid 23 we have seen typical Soviet style of whole batteries and even battalions of side-by-side standing guns simultainous work, that now Russians are more and more shifting to dispersing of artillery and work by single guns of a battery with individaual targeting for each.
Here is google-translated post about changes since 2022. "The work was carried out in areas with a low coeeficient of UAV use" - means "ineffective area fire with low UAV usage", though for summer 2022 it's not always could be true, or soldiers then reported about dozen Orlans and Zala, ajusting fire. Probably ajusting was inefefctive or come on too long command chain, which made it ineffective.

 
And addition to this post by other Russian artillerist with my translation:
I'l throw my 5 cents:
Regimental artillery tied on artillery chief (of regiment). He, sitting on command post (let's call it in such way) together with chief of recon, watch streams from UAVs (and intercepted streams of the enemy). Spotting the target chief of artillery transmits it to battery commander or senior battery officer  [he is commander of 1st artillery platoon also] and they transmit this data to the gun. 2-7 minutes for targeting of the gun, the bird [drone] in the sky. First shoot - the fire ajustment from artilelry chief directly to the gun. Or artillery chief opens the map, come into communication with gun commandr through the radio and gives the targeting (angle, azimuth, lines). The gun crew lives on position 2-5 days, further a rotation is coming. Nobody drink on position, it's taboo, else they go to "zakrep" [probably those who have to hold the ground after assault] - and this is more scary than to stormers. 
We don't work with mortars since new year. This is no longer relevant becaus of crews life preservation purposes. Drones already fly on 10 km in the rear, so they clicks them at once  

And here Russian feedback about CAESERs

Ukraine hit one of Sevastopol bays with "Neptun" missile. Local authorities claim "the missile was intercepted, but debrises caused small fire, which was quickly extinguished". 
Though after some of locals issued a video with a fire on the some ship, thre were information appeared Russian submarine salvage vessel "Komunna" was hit.
"Komunna", belonging to 1st group of 145th resque vessels detachment is unique and oldest vessel in military service in the world. It was laid down as far as in 1912 (!!!) and was comissioned in 1915 as a vessel for submarines resque and sunken ships and other ojects lifting. As prototype was used German vessel "Vulcan". Initially it named "Volkhov" and served on Baltic, passing WWI, Winter War and WWII. In 1967 the vessel was moved to Black Sea. Since 2016 "Komunna" was equiped with more modern AS-28 deep-submergence resque vessel, having opportunity to reach 1000 m of depth. Though, in 1967 "Komunna" had more capable deep vessel AS-6, wich could reach 2000 m, but was decomissioned in the mid of 80th. Othe one interesting fact aboyt this vessel - it hull made of unique ductille mallable ship steel - the hull of the vessel even now, since 102 years in very good condition, but the technology of such steel producing was lost after Russian Civil War
Here is "Komunna"


    

Ukraine this night conducted large drone attack on Russian infrastructure objects with at least 50 drones, including jet ones. This was combined operation of SBU, GUR and SOF
Russian side as usual claimed all drones were shot down/supressed, BUT:
Most successful attack was on "Lukoil" and "Nyeftyanika" companies oil depots near Kardymovo village in Smolensk oblast. Both bases, standing side-by-side were set on fire. This is transit oil bases - Russian oil accumulates here before transporting on Belarusian refineries and then a gas and other products mostly go back to Russian market.

 

Locals also reported in TG they heard a sound of jet engine and explosion in area of Smolensk aviation plant. This object, which specialized on light aircraft and Kh-59 missiles producing already was hit by a drone in November 2023
In Vygonichi, Briansk oblast power substation was hit

Staryi Oskol, Belgorod oblast - also reportedly power object was hit
Reportedly a fire on power substation in Ufa, Bashjortostan Republic, but this is 1500 km from Ukraine. Maybe technical failure or diversion

 

More detailed sattelite shots of Dzhankoy airbase has appeared
Large article with preliminary analysis: https://www.twz.com/news-features/major-damage-at-russian-airbase-in-crimea-after-ukrainian-attack
Some photos from this article:
At least battery set of S-400/S-300 destroyed

Something similar to separately standing radars in zone of cluster subminition explosions

 

TG channel of 177th naval infantry regiment servicemen mothers and wives says for two months in Krynky only 10 % of regimemt were turned back intact from initial 3000 of personnel. So 2700 killed, wounded and missed.
Regiment now in own permanent station preparing new replenishment. 

There were six launches of Kh-22/Kh-32 today. Typical payload of Tu-22 is two such missiles. Reportedly one Russian bomber turned back after his leading Tu-22 was hit. So, probably 8 bombers participated in this raid and it's hard to designate which of them is Tu-22M3M

This is probably wasn't posted here
Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko in own intervew about week ago let it slip (or not), hinting about Putin's startegy for nearest time. He told that it would be great if Ukraine and Russia sign peace up to 31st of May. Because in this day powers of Zelenskiy expire and if, God save, other president will come to power like Poroshenko again, he may just to reject any agreements, signed after this data, because they were signed by illegitimate president. 
Many of Poroshenko followers in unison with Russian propaganda try to share among Ukrainian society an opinion, that after 31st of May Zelenskiy will become an usurper and army shouldn't execute his directives. Really in Ukrainian Constitution has wriiten that in conditions of emergency and martial law any elections are prohibited. But there is no definition what should happen with powers of current president in this case. And this gives a food for different speculatoins. 
So, probably, desperate and fierce meat assults, strikes on energy system, blocking of the military aid with help of MAGA side and some other factors, like blocking of Ukrainian borders by Polish farmers under protection of pro-Russian political force, urgent requests to stop hit Russian refineries are the chains of one plan to broke Ukraine and force to sign peace agreement. But something getting wrong...
 

Chief of GUR Kyrylo Budanov told in own comment to BBC Ukraine, that AD and GUR have been waiting Russian Tu-22M during a week in the ambush. The bomber was shot down on the range 308 km.
Budanov told some thing was used, deeply upgraded by Ukrainian enginners. Some OSINTers on the GUR video recognized interiror of S-200, but with complete changed equipment.
If true, looks like we could extend the range of missiles much more than 180-240 km of Soviet S-200V/M variants
PS. Ukraine hadn't latest S-200D system with range 300 km. USSR had a time to produce and deploy only several complexes of this type in the late 80th, and they were only in Russia and were withdrawn from service in the mid of 90th. 
Ukraine had S-200V with 180 km range and S-200M with 240 km range (255 km on AWACS planes). They were withdrawn from service in 2011-2013


https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3g58qn2jvgo?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR2AfBzV1Eh_3H9H3O2ycqZbVOnB3WvjlLJhYLm5Fh4_3lVpdQphJ-pBTRU_aem_AdlSS5xReobUX09lrT-tHx8agDHkU2b3y0ncsvUX982bv2sWMivU_F_W5V7t4OaV4MVejUFjlmfwVQc283wuhDYP
 

On the topic of democracy (democracy indexes, democratic backsliding and the like) I can actually contribute with more than my typical "expert amateur's" opinion since poli sci is my academic background.
The Economist Democracy Index appears to be from 2021 (based on Norway's and Sweden's scores of 9.75 and 9.26 respectively). That year Switzerland dipped down below 9.00, which changed its colour in the map @The_Capt posted. It might be a colour vision thing @kimbosbread? Personally I know that my red-green colour vision is in the dumps, and I cannot make out any distinction what so ever between the colours assigned to 8, 7 and 6 in that map. That still places it as a full democracy though.
It should be noted for the Economist Democracy Index's use of the term "Flawed democracy" doesn't mean that it's not a democracy, undemocratic or the like:
In the case of the USA, this likely refers to issues such as voter turnout, gerrymandering, first-past-the-post and the virtual two party system, civil rights, etc. Emphasis on "likely" though, because the Economist Democracy Index is based on anonymous scoring from undisclosed experts, so no one can say with certainty what particular aspects influenced a state's scoring.
 
V-dem is in my experience the preferred democracy index, notwithstanding any personal bias (it's from my alma mater). What makes the most difference (going by the examples cited here) though is how you measure democracy: Visual Capitalist choses to measure shares of the global poluation as opposed to number of states. This leads to statistical oddities/misrepresentations of the scale of democratic backsliding, since states are entities: if say State A and State B have become democracies whereas State Z has become an autocracy, that's a net increase in democracy, regardless of the fact that State A & B only have a combined population of say 20 million whereas State Z has a population of 1 billion. That's how Visual Capitalist arrives at the dire conclusion of "2010 Democracy: 50.4% vs 2021 Democracy: 29.3%".
India alone being reclassed from "electoral democracy" to "electoral autocracy" is behind a not insignificant portion of that change: the number of people living in electoral autocracies increased by 1.76 billion between 2010 and 2021 (India's population today reaching 1.41 billion). The remaining net global population which has shifted from "liberal/electoral democracy" to "electoral/closed autocracy" is "only" 0.7 billion. I.e., one single country falling back into autocracy is behind a smidge over 2/3 of that shift.
 
If we were to look at states instead (the typical poli sci method and arguably the more accurate measurement), we get this more positive picture:

Between the end of the Cold War and 2022, liberal democracies have remained virtually the same, more than half the world's closed autocracies have gone the way of the dodo, and electoral democracies and electoral autocracies are tied at 32.58%: back in 1990, electoral autocracies were almost 30% ahead of electoral democracies, and a staggering 36.84% of the world's states were closed autocracies. Closed autocracies were by far the most common form of government in the world when the Cold War ended: today its the opposite, it's the least common.
 
That was an argument against Visual Capitalist's measurement of democracy. Democratic backsliding is accepted among most experts, but there's not much certainty as to whether or not this will turn out to be a lasting development or if it's simply a symptom of many politically and socially underdeveloped/unprepared states which were democratised when the Cold War wrapped up simply having reverted to forms of government which are more in line for what could be expected of them.
 
 
Edit: I was going to write a brief reply. Instead I wrote more here than I've gotten done on my thesis during the last two months combined. FFS...

First Tu-22 kill? Pilots reportedly bailed out. 
 

https://forbes.ua/ru/news/ukrainskiy-virobnik-gotue-seriyne-virobnitstvo-analoga-dji-mavic-shmavik-forbes-diznavsya-yogo-kharakteristiki-ta-tsinu-17042024-20603
Via: https://mastodon.social/@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl/112296332321909985
I still don't know why Ukrainians allies don't seem able to get projects like this on the way. The cost of development is a fraction of the cost of a leopard... Peanuts to what else is being sent. 

Formed from volunteer units of the armed wing of the Right Sector, the 67th Mech. is being divided up.
From one of the articles linked:
Imo, if true, that the unit could not integrate and was doing such Russian Frontline mobik tactics, then absolutely replacing with Syrskyi was the right move.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/14/7451183/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/16/7451501/
https://t.co/SGm9I4j1l0