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Combatintman

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  1. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Vergeltungswaffe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You're missing my point which has been nicely demonstrated already by the citizens of Belgorod turning fuel stations into carparks following the strike desperate to get fuel - this wouldn't have happened had the attack hit a military fuel depot.  It has also been demonstrated in part by the response of the Russian authorities as they have publicly admitted it has taken place.  The net result is that there is a section of the population that now knows that the 'mighty' Russian armed forces cannot protect them, that this war is by no means over and for those living in Belgorod it has triggered panic buying.  It may trigger some of them to evacuate which means that the message propagates more widely.  A small additional bonus effect maybe, but this will also cause some traffic disruption thus hampering military movement down the highways in the area.
    Now let's' say that those helicopters zapped some Russian logistical node in a remote area/"Nowheregrad".  The attack can be denied by the Russians and this has less effect in the information operations domain and its a rinse a repeat of other military logistical vehicles getting whacked which we have seen ad nauseum now.  Such attacks of course have an effect but it is more physical than cognitive, and it is very localized say to XX Motor Rifle Brigade's ability to manoeuvre.  
    By attacking something in a city we have had a reaction and the Russian military now needs to consider ringing its border cities with SAM systems and/or committing aircraft to CAP coverage of the borders - all of which divert resources from the front.  Or it ignores the problem and risks a repeat attack and more civilian dismay.
    There's been a lot of talk here about what 'new warfare' looks like and I think this is an example of it.  Small forces exploiting gaps in a dispersed battlespace attacking carefully selected and weakly defended centres of gravity/targets to achieve operational effects.
  2. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So to summarize, you still don't know then.  Here's a bonus question for you - which facility is it?
  3. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from Zatoichi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My read on British advances in tank invisibility are that they are called defence cuts. 😉
  4. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from c3k in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My read on British advances in tank invisibility are that they are called defence cuts. 😉
  5. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My read on British advances in tank invisibility are that they are called defence cuts. 😉
  6. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Splinty in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My read on British advances in tank invisibility are that they are called defence cuts. 😉
  7. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Field Oggy in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My read on British advances in tank invisibility are that they are called defence cuts. 😉
  8. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My read on British advances in tank invisibility are that they are called defence cuts. 😉
  9. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My read on British advances in tank invisibility are that they are called defence cuts. 😉
  10. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from laribe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My read on British advances in tank invisibility are that they are called defence cuts. 😉
  11. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Meanwhile, Putin's Special Representative for Afghanistan rolled into Kabul yesterday hot on the heels of the Chinese Foreign Minister.  Promising all sorts of economic cooperation which followed an announcement earlier in the week that Russia would resume LPG/LNG (media isn't sure which) supplies to Afghanistan which it had previously suspended because there wasn't enough money in it.
    Then today, this made me laugh ... (auto-translation from Pashto)

    Made me wonder if this was a delivery that was over 40 years late and a metaphor for the cr@ppy management of logistics we're seeing in Ukraine.  The other angle is that if I was in charge I would be sending my military medical supplies to somewhere there is a war involving Russian troops rather than somewhere there isn't a war.
    Actually saw this one come in as well, the aircraft flew over our roof at about 1,000 feet around late morning/lunchtime today.
  12. Upvote
    Combatintman reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Anyone posted this?  First if genuine this is really impressive open source work.  Second, holy crap.
     
     
  13. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from LukeFF in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Land corridor to Kaliningrad has the strong whiff of something similar in 1939 on that same coastline which ended in tears.  Of course they are talking out of their @rses when they say it would be 'even easier than what's happened in Ukraine.'  Personally this is where I would like to see Poland focus its efforts rather than banging on about no-fly zones, peacemaking/peacekeeping forces and transferring Migs.  I doubt the Kaliningrad Oblast is self-sufficient so 'interruptions' to power plus anything else in transit would cause enough grief there for starters.  Then I would just saturate the place with messaging.  Stick huge screens up on the border and play footage of Russian casualties etc.
  14. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from BletchleyGeek in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Land corridor to Kaliningrad has the strong whiff of something similar in 1939 on that same coastline which ended in tears.  Of course they are talking out of their @rses when they say it would be 'even easier than what's happened in Ukraine.'  Personally this is where I would like to see Poland focus its efforts rather than banging on about no-fly zones, peacemaking/peacekeeping forces and transferring Migs.  I doubt the Kaliningrad Oblast is self-sufficient so 'interruptions' to power plus anything else in transit would cause enough grief there for starters.  Then I would just saturate the place with messaging.  Stick huge screens up on the border and play footage of Russian casualties etc.
  15. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Artkin in MASTER TOE (1981) - V Corps   
    Fire and Fury is a set of miniatures wargaming rules.
    I also wouldn't set too much store on them being totally accurate either.  I had a rummage through the British lists for the Cold War and found them a useful starting point for sure but found some pretty glaring errors in them once I dug into the research.
  16. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from MOS:96B2P in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There seems to be some plunging in the projectile's trajectory.  The projectile can be seen first at the 4 second mark which is the first red circle on the image.  Follow it from there ...

    The range is very approximate - I used the BTR as my reference measurement.  If you look at the second to last circle before impact and follow the projectile from there, that is where the plunging is most obvious.  Not saying it is a Javelin, just something that has plunged.
  17. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from BletchleyGeek in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Its a science, if you forgive the pun, in itself.  Blood agent, nerve agent, choking agent, incapacitating agent, persistent agent, non-persistent agent are just a few variables for starters.  Generally you need mass, so MBRLs in battalion handfuls should be the preferred method of delivery.  Then of course there is the weather factor - wind direction, wind speed, temperature and humidity.
    In terms of effect, it is going to depend on whether the folks on the receiving end have equipment to protect themselves against it and, where applicable, have taken drugs to ameliorate the effects of certain agents, and have the means to decontaminate.
    They generally work on the basis of being a terror weapon so there is potentially a huge psychological effect but also as just a means of causing casualties that the medical chain has to deal with.  Combine that with AFVs operating closed down and just the rigid PITA of performing basic tasks with a bulky suit on, your view of the world being restricted to two pieces of glass, your ears covered by the suit hood and wearing two pairs of gloves.  Shooting, which I learned was a vaguely important soldiering skill during my time in two armies, in NBC kit is an art in itself.  Now try and write on a log sheet, type on a computer, twiddle the dial on your radio or even speak, listen and be understood/understand on the radio with those gloves and that mask on.
  18. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Sandokan in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Its a science, if you forgive the pun, in itself.  Blood agent, nerve agent, choking agent, incapacitating agent, persistent agent, non-persistent agent are just a few variables for starters.  Generally you need mass, so MBRLs in battalion handfuls should be the preferred method of delivery.  Then of course there is the weather factor - wind direction, wind speed, temperature and humidity.
    In terms of effect, it is going to depend on whether the folks on the receiving end have equipment to protect themselves against it and, where applicable, have taken drugs to ameliorate the effects of certain agents, and have the means to decontaminate.
    They generally work on the basis of being a terror weapon so there is potentially a huge psychological effect but also as just a means of causing casualties that the medical chain has to deal with.  Combine that with AFVs operating closed down and just the rigid PITA of performing basic tasks with a bulky suit on, your view of the world being restricted to two pieces of glass, your ears covered by the suit hood and wearing two pairs of gloves.  Shooting, which I learned was a vaguely important soldiering skill during my time in two armies, in NBC kit is an art in itself.  Now try and write on a log sheet, type on a computer, twiddle the dial on your radio or even speak, listen and be understood/understand on the radio with those gloves and that mask on.
  19. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There seems to be some plunging in the projectile's trajectory.  The projectile can be seen first at the 4 second mark which is the first red circle on the image.  Follow it from there ...

    The range is very approximate - I used the BTR as my reference measurement.  If you look at the second to last circle before impact and follow the projectile from there, that is where the plunging is most obvious.  Not saying it is a Javelin, just something that has plunged.
  20. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from White2Golf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Its a science, if you forgive the pun, in itself.  Blood agent, nerve agent, choking agent, incapacitating agent, persistent agent, non-persistent agent are just a few variables for starters.  Generally you need mass, so MBRLs in battalion handfuls should be the preferred method of delivery.  Then of course there is the weather factor - wind direction, wind speed, temperature and humidity.
    In terms of effect, it is going to depend on whether the folks on the receiving end have equipment to protect themselves against it and, where applicable, have taken drugs to ameliorate the effects of certain agents, and have the means to decontaminate.
    They generally work on the basis of being a terror weapon so there is potentially a huge psychological effect but also as just a means of causing casualties that the medical chain has to deal with.  Combine that with AFVs operating closed down and just the rigid PITA of performing basic tasks with a bulky suit on, your view of the world being restricted to two pieces of glass, your ears covered by the suit hood and wearing two pairs of gloves.  Shooting, which I learned was a vaguely important soldiering skill during my time in two armies, in NBC kit is an art in itself.  Now try and write on a log sheet, type on a computer, twiddle the dial on your radio or even speak, listen and be understood/understand on the radio with those gloves and that mask on.
  21. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Pete Wenman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Its a science, if you forgive the pun, in itself.  Blood agent, nerve agent, choking agent, incapacitating agent, persistent agent, non-persistent agent are just a few variables for starters.  Generally you need mass, so MBRLs in battalion handfuls should be the preferred method of delivery.  Then of course there is the weather factor - wind direction, wind speed, temperature and humidity.
    In terms of effect, it is going to depend on whether the folks on the receiving end have equipment to protect themselves against it and, where applicable, have taken drugs to ameliorate the effects of certain agents, and have the means to decontaminate.
    They generally work on the basis of being a terror weapon so there is potentially a huge psychological effect but also as just a means of causing casualties that the medical chain has to deal with.  Combine that with AFVs operating closed down and just the rigid PITA of performing basic tasks with a bulky suit on, your view of the world being restricted to two pieces of glass, your ears covered by the suit hood and wearing two pairs of gloves.  Shooting, which I learned was a vaguely important soldiering skill during my time in two armies, in NBC kit is an art in itself.  Now try and write on a log sheet, type on a computer, twiddle the dial on your radio or even speak, listen and be understood/understand on the radio with those gloves and that mask on.
  22. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Its a science, if you forgive the pun, in itself.  Blood agent, nerve agent, choking agent, incapacitating agent, persistent agent, non-persistent agent are just a few variables for starters.  Generally you need mass, so MBRLs in battalion handfuls should be the preferred method of delivery.  Then of course there is the weather factor - wind direction, wind speed, temperature and humidity.
    In terms of effect, it is going to depend on whether the folks on the receiving end have equipment to protect themselves against it and, where applicable, have taken drugs to ameliorate the effects of certain agents, and have the means to decontaminate.
    They generally work on the basis of being a terror weapon so there is potentially a huge psychological effect but also as just a means of causing casualties that the medical chain has to deal with.  Combine that with AFVs operating closed down and just the rigid PITA of performing basic tasks with a bulky suit on, your view of the world being restricted to two pieces of glass, your ears covered by the suit hood and wearing two pairs of gloves.  Shooting, which I learned was a vaguely important soldiering skill during my time in two armies, in NBC kit is an art in itself.  Now try and write on a log sheet, type on a computer, twiddle the dial on your radio or even speak, listen and be understood/understand on the radio with those gloves and that mask on.
  23. Thanks
    Combatintman got a reaction from Machor in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    For those interested in the information operations space - ExTrac is worth a look:
    I haven't got the bandwidth to delve into the detail of this stuff to establish its veracity; however, I can tell you for a fact that their analysis of the Afghan media space that I read today is absolutely bang on the money so on that basis I highly recommend it for those that are interested in this aspect of the conflict.
  24. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Deeks in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    About 7 degrees is the best you can hope for ...

  25. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @kraze - five medals isn't 'that many medals' however ...

    And I never shot anybody ... just got shot at a bit and blown up once.
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