Combatintman

Heh, he just couldn’t resist showing up an officer.  Trust me, if it comes down to believing me or @Combatintman when it comes down to intel analysis, go with him every time.

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...
MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission
I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
The broad COAs for Russian are basically:
COA1 - Deep Envelopment. COA2 - Medium Envelopment. COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.
Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.
Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.
BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz
 

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...
MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission
I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
The broad COAs for Russian are basically:
COA1 - Deep Envelopment. COA2 - Medium Envelopment. COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.
Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.
Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.
BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz
 

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...
MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission
I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
The broad COAs for Russian are basically:
COA1 - Deep Envelopment. COA2 - Medium Envelopment. COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.
Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.
Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.
BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz
 

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...
MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission
I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
The broad COAs for Russian are basically:
COA1 - Deep Envelopment. COA2 - Medium Envelopment. COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.
Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.
Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.
BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz
 

Yes it is enough of an obstacle in many places - hence the 'Severely Restricted' marking in many places.  Severely Restricted in IPB terms = cannot be bridged by an AVLB.  I haven't finished doing that river yet but a lot of it is 'Restricted' which means that it can be crossed by an AVLB and some stretches will be 'Unrestricted' which is 5' gap or less (1.5m ish in new money).  Russia needs tactical bridging whichever Avenue of Approach is used and will likely need a lot of it.

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...
MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission
I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
The broad COAs for Russian are basically:
COA1 - Deep Envelopment. COA2 - Medium Envelopment. COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.
Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.
Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.
BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz
 

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...
MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission
I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
The broad COAs for Russian are basically:
COA1 - Deep Envelopment. COA2 - Medium Envelopment. COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.
Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.
Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.
BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz
 

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...
MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission
I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
The broad COAs for Russian are basically:
COA1 - Deep Envelopment. COA2 - Medium Envelopment. COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.
Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.
Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.
BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz
 

Theoretically Russia could spare the troops.  The Taliban and Islamic extremist threat is over egged massively by both Russia and Tajikistan.  A couple of months back the Tajik President came out with the outlandish figure of something like 6,000 Islamic militants active in Afghanistan's north east which was 'confirmed' by Russia.  In reality the numbers don't even come close to what's up there in Afghanistan's Badakhshan, Takhar and Kunduz provinces - maybe 2,000 at best and even that would be an optimistic assessment.  Coupled with this is that the Taliban are keeping a lid on these guys.  However, it plays into a good narrative of being strong on terrorism and allows Russia to trumpet the CSTO as well as find good reasons to station its forces in non-Russian territory.

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...
MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission
I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
The broad COAs for Russian are basically:
COA1 - Deep Envelopment. COA2 - Medium Envelopment. COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.
Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.
Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.
BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz
 

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...
MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission
I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
The broad COAs for Russian are basically:
COA1 - Deep Envelopment. COA2 - Medium Envelopment. COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.
Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.
Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.
BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz
 

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...
MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission
I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
The broad COAs for Russian are basically:
COA1 - Deep Envelopment. COA2 - Medium Envelopment. COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.
Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.
Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.
BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz
 

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...
MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission
I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
The broad COAs for Russian are basically:
COA1 - Deep Envelopment. COA2 - Medium Envelopment. COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.
Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.
Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.
BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz
 

Theoretically Russia could spare the troops.  The Taliban and Islamic extremist threat is over egged massively by both Russia and Tajikistan.  A couple of months back the Tajik President came out with the outlandish figure of something like 6,000 Islamic militants active in Afghanistan's north east which was 'confirmed' by Russia.  In reality the numbers don't even come close to what's up there in Afghanistan's Badakhshan, Takhar and Kunduz provinces - maybe 2,000 at best and even that would be an optimistic assessment.  Coupled with this is that the Taliban are keeping a lid on these guys.  However, it plays into a good narrative of being strong on terrorism and allows Russia to trumpet the CSTO as well as find good reasons to station its forces in non-Russian territory.

^What he said! Having said that, my own CM experience level is very much at the beginner end of the spectrum. I bought all the WWII titles (CM1 on gog.com and CM2 direct from Battlefront) over the course of 2019 but work and parenthood have left me little time for gaming of any description. Wouldn't feel right about buying CMBS until this war is over, but I did pick up CMCW recently to support the team...
And welcome to my fellow newcomers...I've had a lurker account here for a few years but these discussions finally drew me out of the shadows. I meant to start off with a tip of the hat post like this as others have done, but ended up chiming in a few times and it just snowballed from there...apologies for the lack of manners.
I will echo what others have said: This thread has become my go-to source for news and analysis on the current conflict, the variety of experience and expertise here is quite remarkable. @Battlefront.com and @The_Capt have definitely earned all the accolades, along with many of the other contributors.
And of course, a special thanks to @Haiduk and everyone else contributing from Ukraine. Anything I can say in these terrible times would feel utterly inadequate, so I'll leave it at a heartfelt stay safe and stay strong. Hopefully better times are ahead soon...

No not quite - I have yet to meet a commander that admits they have enough ISR assets for a starter.  I don't doubt that the coverage is there but there are the issues of whether:
The coverage is persistent or time limited. There are overlapping and separate sources reporting. There is information overload in the analysis cell. The analysed product is getting to the right people at the right time. That leaders make the right judgements based on the product. Khafji in Gulf War 1 is a good example of how surprise by the Iraqi Army was achieved in the face of pretty good coverage by a headquarters that vaguely knew what it was doing ... 
"Throughout 28 January, the Coalition received a number of warnings suggesting an impending Iraqi offensive. The Coalition was flying two brand-new E-8A Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (Joint STARS) aircraft, which picked up the deployment and movement of Iraqi forces to the area opposite of Khafji.  Observation posts 2, 7 and 8 also detected heavy Iraqi reconnoitering along the border, and their small teams of air-naval gunfire liaison Marines called in air and artillery strikes throughout the day. Lieutenant Colonel Richard Barry, commander of the forward headquarters of the 1st Surveillance, Reconnaissance and Intelligence Group, sent warnings about an impending attack to Central Command. CentCom leaders were too preoccupied with the air campaign to heed them however, and so the Iraqi operation came as a surprise."
Sure the Iraqis got booted out a few days later and the attacking force suffered on the way down to Khafji but the attack was still a surprise even though this was an advance over a piece of ground not well endowed with hiding places by an organization not known for its prowess against a Coalition led by a nation which had trained and equipped itself to be probably the most competent executor of conventional manoeuvre warfare at that time.
That said, I doubt that Russia will be able to achieve much in the way of significant surprise in where it decides to strike to the extent that Ukrainian forces will be unable to recover.  Likewise, the thing with surprise is that you need to capitalise on it by rapid exploitation, maintaining the initiative and thus ahead of the Ukrainian OODA loop.  The Russian Army has done nothing in this conflict that suggests it is capable of this.

We call them assessments in the trade and yes it is possible to achieve surprise.  There will always be gaps in coverage and there is the issue of sorting out the wheat from the chaff and then getting that recognized picture to the people who need the information.  Additionally the vehicles do not necessarily have to start moving to be able to work out the Courses of Action available.  It is fairly easy to narrow down the courses of action using processes such Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) and once you narrow those down, you can task your ISR to look into areas where they might travel and when they might travel through their areas.  Ideally you cover areas where the enemy has to make a decision, called a Decision Point in the trade and if you get it right, you end up well ahead of the enemy's' Decision-Action cycle which allows you to trigger counter actions or strikes as necessary.

We call them assessments in the trade and yes it is possible to achieve surprise.  There will always be gaps in coverage and there is the issue of sorting out the wheat from the chaff and then getting that recognized picture to the people who need the information.  Additionally the vehicles do not necessarily have to start moving to be able to work out the Courses of Action available.  It is fairly easy to narrow down the courses of action using processes such Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) and once you narrow those down, you can task your ISR to look into areas where they might travel and when they might travel through their areas.  Ideally you cover areas where the enemy has to make a decision, called a Decision Point in the trade and if you get it right, you end up well ahead of the enemy's' Decision-Action cycle which allows you to trigger counter actions or strikes as necessary.

We call them assessments in the trade and yes it is possible to achieve surprise.  There will always be gaps in coverage and there is the issue of sorting out the wheat from the chaff and then getting that recognized picture to the people who need the information.  Additionally the vehicles do not necessarily have to start moving to be able to work out the Courses of Action available.  It is fairly easy to narrow down the courses of action using processes such Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) and once you narrow those down, you can task your ISR to look into areas where they might travel and when they might travel through their areas.  Ideally you cover areas where the enemy has to make a decision, called a Decision Point in the trade and if you get it right, you end up well ahead of the enemy's' Decision-Action cycle which allows you to trigger counter actions or strikes as necessary.

No not quite - I have yet to meet a commander that admits they have enough ISR assets for a starter.  I don't doubt that the coverage is there but there are the issues of whether:
The coverage is persistent or time limited. There are overlapping and separate sources reporting. There is information overload in the analysis cell. The analysed product is getting to the right people at the right time. That leaders make the right judgements based on the product. Khafji in Gulf War 1 is a good example of how surprise by the Iraqi Army was achieved in the face of pretty good coverage by a headquarters that vaguely knew what it was doing ... 
"Throughout 28 January, the Coalition received a number of warnings suggesting an impending Iraqi offensive. The Coalition was flying two brand-new E-8A Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (Joint STARS) aircraft, which picked up the deployment and movement of Iraqi forces to the area opposite of Khafji.  Observation posts 2, 7 and 8 also detected heavy Iraqi reconnoitering along the border, and their small teams of air-naval gunfire liaison Marines called in air and artillery strikes throughout the day. Lieutenant Colonel Richard Barry, commander of the forward headquarters of the 1st Surveillance, Reconnaissance and Intelligence Group, sent warnings about an impending attack to Central Command. CentCom leaders were too preoccupied with the air campaign to heed them however, and so the Iraqi operation came as a surprise."
Sure the Iraqis got booted out a few days later and the attacking force suffered on the way down to Khafji but the attack was still a surprise even though this was an advance over a piece of ground not well endowed with hiding places by an organization not known for its prowess against a Coalition led by a nation which had trained and equipped itself to be probably the most competent executor of conventional manoeuvre warfare at that time.
That said, I doubt that Russia will be able to achieve much in the way of significant surprise in where it decides to strike to the extent that Ukrainian forces will be unable to recover.  Likewise, the thing with surprise is that you need to capitalise on it by rapid exploitation, maintaining the initiative and thus ahead of the Ukrainian OODA loop.  The Russian Army has done nothing in this conflict that suggests it is capable of this.

No not quite - I have yet to meet a commander that admits they have enough ISR assets for a starter.  I don't doubt that the coverage is there but there are the issues of whether:
The coverage is persistent or time limited. There are overlapping and separate sources reporting. There is information overload in the analysis cell. The analysed product is getting to the right people at the right time. That leaders make the right judgements based on the product. Khafji in Gulf War 1 is a good example of how surprise by the Iraqi Army was achieved in the face of pretty good coverage by a headquarters that vaguely knew what it was doing ... 
"Throughout 28 January, the Coalition received a number of warnings suggesting an impending Iraqi offensive. The Coalition was flying two brand-new E-8A Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (Joint STARS) aircraft, which picked up the deployment and movement of Iraqi forces to the area opposite of Khafji.  Observation posts 2, 7 and 8 also detected heavy Iraqi reconnoitering along the border, and their small teams of air-naval gunfire liaison Marines called in air and artillery strikes throughout the day. Lieutenant Colonel Richard Barry, commander of the forward headquarters of the 1st Surveillance, Reconnaissance and Intelligence Group, sent warnings about an impending attack to Central Command. CentCom leaders were too preoccupied with the air campaign to heed them however, and so the Iraqi operation came as a surprise."
Sure the Iraqis got booted out a few days later and the attacking force suffered on the way down to Khafji but the attack was still a surprise even though this was an advance over a piece of ground not well endowed with hiding places by an organization not known for its prowess against a Coalition led by a nation which had trained and equipped itself to be probably the most competent executor of conventional manoeuvre warfare at that time.
That said, I doubt that Russia will be able to achieve much in the way of significant surprise in where it decides to strike to the extent that Ukrainian forces will be unable to recover.  Likewise, the thing with surprise is that you need to capitalise on it by rapid exploitation, maintaining the initiative and thus ahead of the Ukrainian OODA loop.  The Russian Army has done nothing in this conflict that suggests it is capable of this.

We call them assessments in the trade and yes it is possible to achieve surprise.  There will always be gaps in coverage and there is the issue of sorting out the wheat from the chaff and then getting that recognized picture to the people who need the information.  Additionally the vehicles do not necessarily have to start moving to be able to work out the Courses of Action available.  It is fairly easy to narrow down the courses of action using processes such Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) and once you narrow those down, you can task your ISR to look into areas where they might travel and when they might travel through their areas.  Ideally you cover areas where the enemy has to make a decision, called a Decision Point in the trade and if you get it right, you end up well ahead of the enemy's' Decision-Action cycle which allows you to trigger counter actions or strikes as necessary.

We call them assessments in the trade and yes it is possible to achieve surprise.  There will always be gaps in coverage and there is the issue of sorting out the wheat from the chaff and then getting that recognized picture to the people who need the information.  Additionally the vehicles do not necessarily have to start moving to be able to work out the Courses of Action available.  It is fairly easy to narrow down the courses of action using processes such Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) and once you narrow those down, you can task your ISR to look into areas where they might travel and when they might travel through their areas.  Ideally you cover areas where the enemy has to make a decision, called a Decision Point in the trade and if you get it right, you end up well ahead of the enemy's' Decision-Action cycle which allows you to trigger counter actions or strikes as necessary.

We call them assessments in the trade and yes it is possible to achieve surprise.  There will always be gaps in coverage and there is the issue of sorting out the wheat from the chaff and then getting that recognized picture to the people who need the information.  Additionally the vehicles do not necessarily have to start moving to be able to work out the Courses of Action available.  It is fairly easy to narrow down the courses of action using processes such Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) and once you narrow those down, you can task your ISR to look into areas where they might travel and when they might travel through their areas.  Ideally you cover areas where the enemy has to make a decision, called a Decision Point in the trade and if you get it right, you end up well ahead of the enemy's' Decision-Action cycle which allows you to trigger counter actions or strikes as necessary.