Combatintman

Either with us or without us .... congratulations on winning comedy hour with a false dichotomy.  I support a Ukrainian victory, I have a flushable toilet and know how to use it, so I tick the civilization box if that is the measure by which civilization has been judged occasionally in this thread.  I am not and never have suggested that Ukraine should cease existing, and I am not taking the Russian side.  So "hypocritically" shall I take a dump on the floor for expressing this view?

Subtlety is rarely on show in his posts.

Either with us or without us .... congratulations on winning comedy hour with a false dichotomy.  I support a Ukrainian victory, I have a flushable toilet and know how to use it, so I tick the civilization box if that is the measure by which civilization has been judged occasionally in this thread.  I am not and never have suggested that Ukraine should cease existing, and I am not taking the Russian side.  So "hypocritically" shall I take a dump on the floor for expressing this view?

Either with us or without us .... congratulations on winning comedy hour with a false dichotomy.  I support a Ukrainian victory, I have a flushable toilet and know how to use it, so I tick the civilization box if that is the measure by which civilization has been judged occasionally in this thread.  I am not and never have suggested that Ukraine should cease existing, and I am not taking the Russian side.  So "hypocritically" shall I take a dump on the floor for expressing this view?

Either with us or without us .... congratulations on winning comedy hour with a false dichotomy.  I support a Ukrainian victory, I have a flushable toilet and know how to use it, so I tick the civilization box if that is the measure by which civilization has been judged occasionally in this thread.  I am not and never have suggested that Ukraine should cease existing, and I am not taking the Russian side.  So "hypocritically" shall I take a dump on the floor for expressing this view?

Subtlety is rarely on show in his posts.

Either with us or without us .... congratulations on winning comedy hour with a false dichotomy.  I support a Ukrainian victory, I have a flushable toilet and know how to use it, so I tick the civilization box if that is the measure by which civilization has been judged occasionally in this thread.  I am not and never have suggested that Ukraine should cease existing, and I am not taking the Russian side.  So "hypocritically" shall I take a dump on the floor for expressing this view?

Either with us or without us .... congratulations on winning comedy hour with a false dichotomy.  I support a Ukrainian victory, I have a flushable toilet and know how to use it, so I tick the civilization box if that is the measure by which civilization has been judged occasionally in this thread.  I am not and never have suggested that Ukraine should cease existing, and I am not taking the Russian side.  So "hypocritically" shall I take a dump on the floor for expressing this view?

Either with us or without us .... congratulations on winning comedy hour with a false dichotomy.  I support a Ukrainian victory, I have a flushable toilet and know how to use it, so I tick the civilization box if that is the measure by which civilization has been judged occasionally in this thread.  I am not and never have suggested that Ukraine should cease existing, and I am not taking the Russian side.  So "hypocritically" shall I take a dump on the floor for expressing this view?

Either with us or without us .... congratulations on winning comedy hour with a false dichotomy.  I support a Ukrainian victory, I have a flushable toilet and know how to use it, so I tick the civilization box if that is the measure by which civilization has been judged occasionally in this thread.  I am not and never have suggested that Ukraine should cease existing, and I am not taking the Russian side.  So "hypocritically" shall I take a dump on the floor for expressing this view?

Ok - my promised offering is about a week off which will be for CMBS - final test complete so just got to do the graphics and the orders.  It is set on a real piece of ground 4.8km x 3.6km in Ukraine but is a fictional mission as the Russians never got that far.  I'll start a dedicated thread for it on the CMBS board once it is all put together.  Meanwhile, some tasters ...

Ok - my promised offering is about a week off which will be for CMBS - final test complete so just got to do the graphics and the orders.  It is set on a real piece of ground 4.8km x 3.6km in Ukraine but is a fictional mission as the Russians never got that far.  I'll start a dedicated thread for it on the CMBS board once it is all put together.  Meanwhile, some tasters ...

New CMBS scenario:
Buran-30 Battalion Tactical Group (BTG).
Command a Russian BTR Battalion Tactical Group.                                                                                                             Russians vs AI only.                                                                                                                                                                      Three hours (tentatively).                                                                                                                                                              Map: 5104 meters x 2512 meters = appx 12.8 square kilometers.                                                                                                  Ground conditions: Wet.  Weather: Hazy.                                                                                                                                  Supply: Scarce.  Headcount: 70%.
SITUATION:  It is 1300hrs on March 30, 2022, in northeast Ukraine.  The Russian Federation is conducting a withdrawal in order to redeploy units to the south.  The withdrawal is under pressure from Ukrainian Army units and partisans.  Many of the Russian units suffer from low morale, low supplies and have lost many vehicles and infantry.  The muddy conditions of the rasputitsa confine vehicles to roads limiting maneuver and increases the danger of ambushes.  
MISSION:  Your call sign is Buran 30.  Your mission is to withdraw your Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) to the east in order to refit and prepare for a future offensive.  It is important to preserve your BTG along with an attached air assault unit (V markings).  A related mission is to destroy Ukrainian units.  Exit all friendly units off the east edge of the Area of Operation (AO) by 1600hrs.
FRIENDLY FORCES:  Your BTG has been in the field for several weeks with inadequate logistics.  Supply is scarce with the headcount at about 70%.  The soldiers are in a weakened state with low morale.  Many vehicles have been lost.  Artillery and artillery shells are generally in good supply. 
Elements of the BTG are arriving in the AO from the west.  A platoon of 120mm heavy mortars is positioned at Derusova Farm and ready to support.  One battery of 152mm and one Orlan drone are also in support.  Lead elements of the BTG have arrived in the northwest and southwest and are standing by for orders.
Status:  Map completed. TOE completed.  One of at least three AI plans completed. 
Map looking northeast from Sonyashnk village.  Eight villages, one river, one powerplant (Ukrainian preserve objective) and one cell tower (Ukrainian preserve objective). 

Random screenshots from testing.




I'll probably eventually start a separate thread in CMBS Maps and Mods forum.  

Let's not get out of hand with what I said about this equipment left over from Afghanistan stuff.  Russia is buying stuff from local dealers that fits into shipping containers.  It is individual kit - so webbing, PPE (body armour and helmets) and combat lifesaving stuff like tourniquets and quick clot.

Let's face it - our cathedrals are nicer than anybody else's.  On a less light note ... it illustrates the power of messaging and how it sticks in the psyche if promoted often enough.

Since when did what become an acknowledged fact?  
To restate my point - the Afghan withdrawal pathway started in February 2020 and was supposed to have been put to bed well before it actually was put to bed.  There is an argument to say that it was sooner than that as the previous US administration was widely reported to be on the cusp of a deal in 2019 but stepped away from the dialogue in September 2019 following the death of US personnel in a Kabul IED attack.  From those start points the obvious question to ask in relation to the theory that the Afghan withdrawal is related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February this year is ... was a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the cards in 2019 or 2020?
In my response to the reemergence of this canard ... President Biden announced the withdrawal decision on April 14, 2021 and being an insider on matters Afghan and somebody who regularly attended meetings at the European Delegation, HQ Resolute Support and the UK and US embassies, I can tell you for a fact that nobody in the international community in Kabul had any idea which way President Biden was going to go until the decision was announced.  The supplementary question; therefore, is ... was a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the cards in April 2021?  The article I posted in my last post indicates that this was not the case until September 2021 which was after the last US service member walked up the ramp of a C17 in Kabul. 
The main problem with politically motivated theories of this ilk (and this is one, because it has been doing the rounds for at least over a month now and the handling of the Afghan withdrawal is a subject of justified scrutiny in the US) is that very few people are prepared to run the facts down and, as I said in my August 18 post, the most obvious explanation is usually the right one
Feel free to challenge any of the above (on another thread) but Afghanistan and intelligence analysis is my day job, so it is always handy to have some facts to hand before doing so.
As to "actual proof that there was early intel" - that is a big ask - intelligence is generally classified and/or on a limited distribution.
To bring this back on topic - guess which country beginning with 'R' and ending with 'ussian Federation' has been buying up container loads of medical equipment, body armour, helmets and other assorted military paraphernalia from local suppliers in Kabul this month?

Let's face it - our cathedrals are nicer than anybody else's.  On a less light note ... it illustrates the power of messaging and how it sticks in the psyche if promoted often enough.

The PWs don't look frightened or hesitant enough to me but I have no doubt that it is reflective of similar arranged surrenders that have taken place.

The PWs don't look frightened or hesitant enough to me but I have no doubt that it is reflective of similar arranged surrenders that have taken place.

Thank god no one has noticed where @Combatintmanright hand is whenever I am talking. Let me just say it is damned uncomfortable.

Let's face it - our cathedrals are nicer than anybody else's.  On a less light note ... it illustrates the power of messaging and how it sticks in the psyche if promoted often enough.

Most of the good (US) kit is being worn or carried by Taliban Special Forces (Badr 313 etc) or went to Pakistan.  It will be mostly Chinese knock-off kit that is going to Russia.

Most of the good (US) kit is being worn or carried by Taliban Special Forces (Badr 313 etc) or went to Pakistan.  It will be mostly Chinese knock-off kit that is going to Russia.

At some point in the future you and The_Capt need to write a book about Afghanistan. Between the two of you there is is just too much knowledge, history, and lessons learned not to get it all on paper. We will do a kickstarter if needed to get you off the ground on the project. I realize it might be five years from now, depending on who knows what, but it needs doing.

A good explanation. Russia started messing with European gas supplies in the spring 2021. Putin gave all kinds of reasons to limit the sale of spot gas, used to built up storage for the winter. It was obvious to alot of people that this was a precursor to something more serious, but most from the outside thought Putin would go for full scale invasion, although Russian watchers figured this was the first step in Putin's dream to reestablish Greater Mother Russia. We don't know the level of intel in the US administration, maybe there was/is a high level of penetration. The odds are quitting Afghanistan was fortunate precautionary timing