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Lethaface

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Everything posted by Lethaface

  1. If ultimately there is no more Black Sea Fleet good enough to protect any Russian shipping / ports in the Black Sea and it's ports, that might become problematic for any Russian shipping in the Black Sea. (and like others said, will help allow Ukraine shipping)
  2. The problem is more with Orban's oligarch tendencies than those numbers imo.
  3. Thanks for shedding more light on the potential worth of the target.
  4. To be honest I don't really pay much attention towards predictions anymore, nobody can predict this stuff without inside info, if even anyone with inside info can do it better compared to the average tarot card layer. That being said, since last week orso there have been various positive developments. I think it's too early to say these developments will actually bring tangible changes beyond the intrinsic value/impact of the strikes/achievements themselves. But positive signs they are.
  5. AFAIK they don't have that many to begin with. So if it is true I guess small will be more like 20 than 200. Anyway it might help decision making in Germany for sending (small number of) Taurus and or other countries. All in all I don't see such developments making a crucial difference, given what Ukr is already achieving. But it could allow extra strikes against important targets, like the strike against the drydock. On the other hand, if Ukraine would be able to source hundreds of extra long range precision cruise/ballistic missiles it could make a large impact.
  6. Guilty as well. I think it would be a good name for a beer, 'Schadenfreude, best enjoyed silently'
  7. I agree that Aragorn, at times, can put things out of proportion and or have a certain bias I don't necessarily share. In fact, the war in Ukraine is probably one of the not so many subjects I mostly agree with him about. At the same time there are also posters here on the other side of the spectrum, blaming all west Europeans for thinking of East Europeans as lesser (I'm not thinking about you, nor do I think that way). Among other things. And yes part of the critics regarding Germany were very on point. I do personally think there is to be made fair criticism against Poland/PiS too, although mostly outside of their conduct in this war. But you know how the media work, they're going to create as much drama as possible. First with Germany, now with Poland. Since I don't like PiS, my opinion is: fair game. There is also much critical to say about our (NL) government (at least I do), although regarding Ukraine they have done quite well so far. All the lists have limited value. These ones and the ones about who gave the most in support to Ukraine. I do think it is important to realize that all the average people in EU/Europe are impacted by the consequences of the war and our support for Ukraine. If one will leave the ship (or talks about leaving), it is not unlikely others will follow. Poland playing hardball by itself, because national economic interests, is sort of openings pandora's box. Therefore I think criticism is very much fair, even (or especially) if it was only election rhetoric with no real consequences other than the impact from media. If you are PM you know very well how your words will be spinned. Your PM seems above average with regards to skill in playing that game. So soon? but i agree, I had my fun already.
  8. You are (also) manipulating yourself here. Germany has given Leo2A6, among other stuff which aren't museum pieces. But I'll digress, I just think it is funny when people who do like bashing can't take bashing themselves.
  9. If I had m I think you have a fair point. Personally I feel Poland (especially the Polish people) was an important force behind the support of Ukraine after the war started and probably / hopefully still will be. At the same time, on this forum (and beyond) it was German bashing day for quite a while because of, mostly, stupid words by German politicians. There were also lists about who has the largest support stick and Germany was frowned upon for not playing their part. In the meantime Germany has been growing their stick relatively and absolutely (as some had expected) and generally says less stupid stuff. Now Polish PM says some stupid stuff, which amounts to 'our farmers will lose money because of Ukraine grain and we don't like what Ukr says, so now we will stop all military support'. (everybody lost money because of Ukraine and sometimes they can be a bit rude with their requests. But hell they are in a war). And now 'the media' does the exact same thing to Poland as what they did to Germany earlier. If you don't like the heat, stay out of the kitchen. And especially since the Polish government were happy to jump on German bash bandwagon themselves not too long ago, I think this is a form of tit for tat which they will just have to take on the chin like a man. 'wie een bal kaatst ...'
  10. The larger picture you mention here (Global) is a 'critical' understanding imo. If documentaries about key turning points in history will still be produced in a hundred years I guess there will be a couple of interesting episodes about what happened /changed during and after the invasion of Ukraine in feb 2022.
  11. While I haven't read Pinker, a limited list will always be a only a limited list. We humans often have desires to categorize stuff which isn't easily categorized into specifics. However fact is that unlike popular belief, 'the world' has become more pleasant for the average human to live his life; relatively you had more chance of hunger, disease, violence and or war in previous generations. At least pre-covid, I haven't really looked into the subject since. Also let's not forget that the bulk of humanity lives in SE Asia. So yes we will probably always retain our violent nature (which isn't necessarily something 'wrong') and it is very plausible the trend will reverse at some time in the future (if it hasn't already), it is also good to realize that during the 20th century and onwards life improved rather drastically for the average human being.
  12. Well let's hope there won't be snowball effects but it won't help in other countries where political support for the (significant) military aid to Ukraine and the impact of sanctions is opposed by significant part of the electorate. And I am nor ever was a big fan of Scholz, probably I have similar feelings about him as many others here but I felt some words about him or rather Germany were uncalled for / unproductive. In the light of this new development one could at least say that all those words from the Polish government was hollow rhetoric for political gain or to be considered hypocrisy. Edit: I hope 'you' manage to get rid of PiS in the election.
  13. Well, geopolitics is (or should) not a playground for elections. The declaration that Poland will stop military support for Ukraine is, to put it mildly, a 'stab in the back' for Ukraine but also the other partners with which Poland was 'cooperating' like the EU, USA, etc. Furthermore it disqualifies all what has been said by Polish officials on the subject of Scholz, etc. There were quite some articles about the rise of influence of Poland in the EU and larger. Actions like this put dynamite under such developments which is imo a shame because all of Europe is better off with a stable / stronger Poland.
  14. At least I don't feel 'torqued' or whatever you mean by that ;-P. My question was more in the context of 'there have been many articles about the Russian economy and how the sanctions are/aren't working' or how much the war has an influence on the economy, all based off probably the same data (or lack thereof). Plenty of 'derivative' indexes/numbers/predictions continue to operate and produce periodic sets without much consideration (and or because they're contractually obliged and don't really care what other parties do with their calculations). Maybe that is what you mean about torqued people. We at least know for sure that Russia has interest to present a case that the sanctions aren't working and that those participating in it are hurting themselves for little/no gain. One could also put forward that Russia has interest to portray, at least internally, that their economy isn't really affected much by the war or the sanctions. So I wondered if he (Tooze) found something 'new', but I'll read the article now that the sun is slowly going down on this side on the globe. Sometimes a question is just a question and there's not much more behind it then an enquiring mind.
  15. FWIW I always find his understanding/theories very interesting and well thought out. However even the brightest mind can't fix 'garbage in, garbage out'. It's not unheard of for think tanks, academics, researchers etc to work with the data that is available to them and make the best of it. Even if that data ought to be tossed out the window Russia style. Not saying Tooze is directly guilty of that in this instance, but how did he get the data he uses and how does he know that it's 'good'?
  16. Having some form of engineering, for instance AFVs with rollers/dozer blades in the modern CMx2 games, wouldn't mean the simulation has to go balls deep into the engineering subject/specialization. A limited set of eng capabilities could make the 'things go boom' more fun and allow one to sort of simulate/portray the RL problems we see on 'the news'. At the moment there is no real way to clear minefields in CMx2 modern. The same goes for fortifications; I wouldn't enjoy a 'dig your own fort' simulation but the current modelling of fortifications in CMx2 limit the amount of tactical battles one can setup up decently enough. I guess some improvements could also be made to fire-planning in order to keep everyone on board ;-P. I was already happy to have learned that the modelling of artillery effects against AFVs is going to be improved. Anyway I thought you both have a valid point and that there is some fruits in the middle.
  17. The planned background editorial's and video's sound great for building immersion! I'm not sure if I'm able to compete, I'm surely tempted but I don't want to perform another no-show like (I had to in) the last battle of the CSMF2 tournament.
  18. Oh I agree on the escalation subject, although that front didn't necessarily change today because Musk did previously proclaim to have stopped WW3 before by preventing a similar strike in the past. However I guess my point was more on the side of do they really need to specifically escalate after this incident?
  19. Make do with less? It is fortunate though that because of the Bosporus thing they can't really reinforce the Black Sea fleet. I don't think we're there yet, but they can't keep losing ships indefinitely before they will have issues with enforcing the blockade and or protect their shipping around the black sea area. So indeed a strategic strike imo, a welcome one too, but not directly tipping any scales in my understanding.
  20. Sorry @Teufelshund for the noshow, I had to deal with some stuff as mentioned in PM.
  21. I think CMBS is/was a great game, without the 2022 war we would have already seen a module (and without the war we wouldn't have known about what things are off; there used to be discussions about how Russian forces are under modeled in CMBS). It can do a decent job of modelling 2022+ scenario's but there's certainly things that are off compared to 'reality'. I too hope for either a module/upgrade for CMBS and or a new game portraying the 2022 war. BFC has said CMBS will never be about the 2022 war, so there's that. But maybe some alterations regarding artillery effectiveness against AFVs and availability of drones could be improved for the CMBS module. Perhaps some tools which had came up by 2017? All in all given that CMBS features drone directed artillery and other things, I think it's rather decent for a game that came out almost a decade ago. And for all it's features and constraints it's perfectly playable both SP and MP.
  22. Had some fun with these little scraps as well, we too were behind schedule mainly due to my agenda but we managed to finish the games just before the bell. The oppo matching is more advanced than I was expecting ;-), given the positions I assumed a rematch against @MeatEtr but we have now been paired with the #3 and #4. Good for variety I guess. I have been coupled to Dawg327, not sure if he is on this forum. First file send and GL & HF!
  23. In my perspective the West certainly plays a role in Russia's behavior, in several ways. But ultimately the power competition is for internal reasons; elements inside Russia want to show that Russia can compete with the big boys. Having a Ukraine (for historical reasons) which is moving towards the western hemisphere is a threat to the image they want to have. Ultimately it could be a threat to the Russian Federation, not only the current regime, because the people 'demand' change after seeing Ukraine developing and thriving with the other 'friend -group'. But that doesn't mean the 'leading subject' of the war is the West, at least I think that's a fallacy. Of course wars are fought because of interests. But Ukraine is fighting this war for THEIR interests, which may align with ours, but not primarily to serve our interests. That was the imo not subtle difference I was missing when people talk about they are fighting the war on our behalf.
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