poesel

There is a non-zero chance that DT will be your next president. And if this time there are no adults in the room, he might just do what he promised he would and leave NATO. Then what, Europe? In a perfect world, that scenario isn't going to happen, and we all work together in NATO. If not, we should have a plan B.

An initiative to create a European Army is underway since 1950, which, depending on the specific proposal, would create something similar than yours - except sans NATO. Of course, this has created some criticism from (amongst others) Jens Stoltenberg (obviously) and DT (funnily, as usual). The English article is a bit terse: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_army The German one explains it in all its glorious detail: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europaarmee Why hasn't it come into existence? Well, following is a graphic that shows the existing military structures in Europe and I think, this is explanation enough:

The 2% are not a contractual agreement. In a 2014 meeting, NATO members agreed to move(!) toward the 2% by 2024 (for those below 2% of GDP). Not a contract, not even about reaching the 2% - just moving towards it. Btw, the 2% were 'invented' in 2002 when the Baltic States joined NATO, and the other members were afraid, they wouldn't invest enough. For the record: I'm all for those 2%.

Russia was on place 23 as a trade partner to Germany, snug between Brazil & India. If it weren't for the unholy dependency on Russian gas, we wouldn't have noticed if it had vanished from earth. That dependency is a thing of the past and will never come back, even if Russia would retreat tomorrow and hung up rainbow flags on the Kremlin. Will Germany start to trade with Russia after this war is over, and all deeds are paid? Yes, of course. Does it matter? No, because the amount of money behind that effort is way too small for any political influence. Btw, there will be WAY more money being made rebuilding Ukraine than trading with Russia. So much machinery & infrastructure has been destroyed and needs to be rebuilt. Germany will give vast amounts of debt guarantees, so Ukrainian companies can buy from German companies all the stuff they need to rebuild. That is where the money will be made. There's probably quite some bankers who are already salivating about this.

Question: after the Kakhovka dam was blown up, there was a lot of talk about the now empty reservoir becoming passable. At least now with frozen ground it should really be passable. There is of course still a river, but I have heard nothing from that front. Why?

Which would probably be the US which traded $109m until Sep 2023 up from $61m in '22 up from $34m in '21. So the US tripled its trade since the war started. But, but, but, ... things are more complicated than a single number. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4635.html

Unfortunately, these systems tend to work right to the end. The Gestapo was operational in the Third Reich in '45, the Stasi worked in East Germany until the wall fell, and I guess that is true for other dictatorships. Avery useful and cheap tool for every oppressive regime and no sign of its upcoming demise.

Detecting something looking up into the sky is probably much easier than looking down or across the ground. There are also fewer obstacles in the sky, your missile has to avoid. The amount of explosives you need to kill a UAS is much lower than what you need against vehicles or probably even troops. I guess you would also have a different type of explosion. If this weapon was available now, both sides would use it, as there is nothing else available against the small copters. In the next war - who knows?

Yes, but only if your company is marketing something for public consumption. Companies like GfM couldn't care less what the public thinks about them because they are selling a very specific product to a niche market. If you need that kind of machine, you buy it. There is no public consumer who could boycott them, no bad PR would hurt their sales.

A few pages back we discussed anti-drone measures. This is a short video of some students (I think) from Nanjing university who build a rocket with a visual sensor. This is not military grade and misses some parts and functions. But if some students can build such a thing, the industry can, too. I think this will be the last war where small drones can roam as freely as they do here. In future wars, it will be much more dangerous for them.

Because neither France nor Austria are at war with Russia. Morale and business do not mix. As long as it's legal, they will sell it. If it's illegal, some will stop, and some will raise the price. That is not nation specific. But some nations have harsher measures which will disincline more businessmen to try to make a profit than others.

Another two of those drone chase video. I feel this makes the killing more personal, and I'm not sure if that's a good or bad thing:

Little story (and I know sample size 1 is not very representative): I have a Russian colleague who started working at our local branch when we closed our Moscow office. He got sick and spent the last three weeks at home in Moscow with his family. Now he's back, and I asked him what people in Moscow really think about the war. He told me it is of not much concern to anyone. It is just something that happens and does not affect the everyday live very much. He is not happy with the situation, but I guess he thinks about this like bad weather: you don't like it, but you can't do anything. My impression from this small interview is, that I better not set my hopes on a revolution from the masses.

Yeah, but those guys are in the send-more-guns camp (thanks Agnes!). At least one thing they do well. I don't think that this war is an existential threat to Europe - at least not as long as Ukraine is not going to lose. We (in Europe) are all in debt to Ukraine, and we know it. Unfortunately, this is not some unknown weirdo on Russia's payroll. He was (!) a respectable journalist who wrote books, made documentaries and often showed up on TV to 'explain' Putin. Really a shame that he could work undetected for so long.

We Germans just loooove recycling

One thing that China would really like to have is a harbor on the Arctic sea. That harbor will be ice-free for most of the year real soon and give China a short and mostly unobstructed route to Europe. I can imagine some kind of reverse Hong Kong where China lends some piece of land for 99 years from Russia. Maybe in the delta of the Lena river. The Lena is navigable to Yakutsk and Yakutsk already has a railway connection to China. That would be a massive infrastructure project, but probably still much cheaper than what they invest to get out of the South China Sea. Also, building infrastructure is something the Chinese are good at. I don't know if this is feasible, but I would bet that someone in China already has the numbers for this project.

Sorry, this is off-topic, but I'm too curious to not ask where the military application of this type of copper band is? I use it quite often at work whenever we have to transmit a few thousand amps over a moveable joint in a converter application. But military application? Maybe for the lasers, but I'd guessed they would use water cooled cables.

Re: shooting down drones: a proximity fuze for infantry use would be a nice solution. But I don't know if you can actually make a round small enough that can be handled by ordinary infantry. The Gepard ammo has such a fuze, but then it is rather impracticable for the average grunt to lug around a barrel that can shoot 35mm rounds. Or you have a missile as complicated as an AT-4, but smaller. Another item to carry around, of course. But maybe useful enough for this war.

IIRC it was protection of minorities, influence of oligarchs and more anti-corruption. This is only about the beginning of talks. Those can take a loooooong time - ask Turkey. Even if Ukraine is still at war, the EU is not a defense pact (although there is something somewhere deep in the contracts IIRC). OTOH, the EU is not going to finance a bridge for Russia to blow up. If Ukraine joins the EU before the war ends, we are talking about a very, very long war...

Ukraine achieved 90% of preconditions for the beginning of negotiations to join the EU. Talk are planned to start in January. Also, Moldova and Georgia now have candidate state.

China builds the first drone carrier (article in German). https://www.wiwo.de/technologie/wirtschaft-von-oben/wirtschaft-von-oben-235-chinesische-marine-china-will-den-ersten-drohnentraeger-der-welt-bauen/29465318.html Seems logical to have such a thing.

Thanks for the answers to the mine roller. I guess some obstacles mentioned could be overcome, but in total that design it is just not useful and reliable enough. I guess we will see specialized UGS which are not much more than a combo of tracks, motor, plow & a remote control (maybe some armor). Low profile and comparably inexpensive. Hmm, if you make the profile low enough and add a ramp, a following vehicle could just drive over it if the plow is disabled.

I have a question regarding mine clearing with rollers: why do mine clearing vehicles have to be tanks? The survivability of mine clearing tanks in this conflict seems to be abysmal. So why bother with armor, and instead use mass. Attach a barrel to a civilian vehicle (4WD or small truck), fill the barrel with water, relieve valve and make that vehicle remote controlled (nothing fancy, just forward, left, right) - you have your el-cheapo mine roller. Works only in light terrain, and doesn't survive any decent shelling. But you can have a lot of them as they are very cheap. This must be a stupid idea because nobody is doing it, but why?

A bit of statistics about this thread. First post 11.2.2022. Page 1000 on 7.7.2022, 2000 on 3.2.2023 and 3000 on 6.11.2023. It took 146 days for the first 1000. Then 211 for the next and another 276 for the last. So we are slowing down. With a bit of extrapolation, it will take 318 days for the next 1000 - that would be September 19, 2024. Let's hope we are discussion the end of the war by then.

Producing ammo is not labor-intensive. What you need is machines and material. That costs (roughly) the same everywhere. The main advantage (for the manufacturer) to produce 'somewhere else' is, that the export restrictions may be lower than in the west. Also, there is no open market for artillery shells. You cannot produce that without state influence. You cannot sell without state influence. You cannot buy without state influence. That makes things complicated in case of crisis. Case in point: Germany couldn't deliver Gepard ammo to Ukraine because it was produced in Switzerland.