dan/california

Sanity is optional, you need look no further than the RFK jr campaign....

Three things about this system, it indicates defense contractors are really working on quadcopter based mine detection, which is a very good thing. The system shown is also a really nifty automated mortar. You are still looking at a LOT of ordinance to clear a lane in minefields the size and density the Russians are laying in Ukraine. My first take is that it might make more sense to have a drone deposit the approximate equivalent of a DPICM submunition, rather than using the mortar, but this would need detailed analysis of the rate at which each system can take out mines, and how vulnerable it is to being killed while doing so.

WINNER!

The article has some really good stuff, as quoted above. It also has some completely clueless bits. The author seems to gravely underestimate the size of the miracle it is that Ukraine is still in this fight.

It isn't getting enough press that Ukraine simply can't make a deal with Russia, because Russia simply doesn't keep its word.

Sooner or later I am convinced Putin is going to have this problem.

Two separate issues, apologies if I was unclear. What I was trying to say is that a LOT of ATACMS, and the freedom to employ them against the highest value targets in Crimea, at least, could really move the needle. If Biden's NSC just wants to send a few of them to be able to say they did, it won't make much difference. In that case I think Ukraine would be better off with more Patriots. I think Ukraine has always used them to shoot at planes instead of glide bombs. I am sure some have been used against cruise missiles around Kyiv. If they push them forward again they clearly need better protection, that may or may not be a viable thing to do. A way to knock down Orlan/Zala class drones faster than the Russians can put more in the air remains one of Ukraines great unsolved problems. Those new Laser based AA Strykers can't do anything but that? Every one of them should be in Ukraine doing it.

I think patriots are higher on the list than ATACMS actually. It is glide bombs and cruise missiles seem to be what is hurting Ukraine the worst. If they could impsoe enough air denial to really reduce those it would take a lot of the pressure off. The calculus might be different if they got enough of the right kind of ATACMS to drop the Kerch bridge. But if they get enough missiles to do that it would reflect a major change in the Biden Administration's approach to this war. They would need enough not just to do that, but to REALLY press the other Russian supply links to the land bridge for it to really count.

But full autonomy reduces the ability to jam them by 95% or better. Even now both sides know that jamming is their only hope, they are putting out enough microwave radiation to fry every egg within 10 kilometers of the front. There is still a great deal of video of stuff blowing up from a drone hit, filmed by a drone. And as The_Capt never tires of reminding us, every one of those jammers is radiating an enormous neon sign that says please kill me first. Drones that will home on jam have to be showing up any week now, if they haven't already.

A whole bunch more to say if I get time, but it was great to come back from vacation to goods news the funding, and the bomber shoot down.

Well they have many billions on developing laser weapons, they might as well put the current iteration in Ukraine, and see if it actually works And this is why it probably won't, but at this point it makes sense to try. 100% agree that an almost entirely unmanned battle at the leading edge will be first, and perhaps nearly decisive going forward. Going out of town for a week, hopefully coming back to good news on the funding.

155, GMLRS, ATACMS. Bradleys. All of these have been proven to work, they just need a ton more of them. NASSAMS and missiles for it. Then put real money and technical effort behind Ukraines drone programs. Last but most certainly not least would be more training, preferably measured in months, not weeks.

Which is whatever is after crazy making.

If I may attempt to summarize, you have to win the war to earn the privilege of making the rules. And if rejecting a new technology means you lose....

Depending on a great many things this may or may not be true. It is certainly possible it is true and the second drone, and the seventh can't learn anything from the previous attempts. There are great many ways that learning could occur though. The first, most obvious, and certainly happening right now is that the same guy is flying the next drone when it shows up in a few minutes, perhaps less if they have an orbit of them already in the air. The drone pilot knows what he did wrong, and doesn't make the same mistake the next time. The second possibility, the FPV drone is being observed by an ISR drone with vastly better sensors, the operators of the two systems are in communication, and the ISR guy can tell the FPV guy what he did wrong for round 2. Third way, the drones are using at least last kilometer autonomy, and start missing., The aforementioned ISR drone can tell the unit flying the FPV drones to change their targeting parameters. The fourth and most important way though, is that every time someone makes a improvement in an autonomous AI drone program, that program shows up in ALL the drones next month, and it will just iterate forever. So the autonomous piloting systems flying nine months after the first ones come out might be five, or twenty five, or 225 times better than the first models.