DavidFields

Thank you for the courteous replies to my post.
Or, 3.  The primary purpose of the flank attack was to ensure the withdrawal from the city of Bakhmut was not hampered?
I think I learned from this forum that Bakhmut was not strategically important, and also that advance planned, massed, artillery grid fires against fixed or small geographic areas is one thing that Rus seems to be able to do.
In addition, and yes, as wargammer, I think people like you have tried to make me understand:
1. That to control a position, sometimes it is better not to occupy it, but to be able to put effective fires in and around it.  (Which, possibly, the two UKR flank positions can do to the Bakhmut area, if they do not withdrawal nor get pushed back.)
2. If an opponent does "recon by pushing units ahead, and watching what blows them up", a counter to that is to move the defense revealed units (over an hour, day, week--depending on the operational level), so that no effective information is gained by that recon style.  This, from what I have read here, is something Rus has largely not solved for.  And thus a dispersed, mobile, defense by UKR west of Bakhmut will likely be effective?
 
Again, giving Rus the choice of commiting high quality offensive troops to try pursue, or letting the area go quiet.
 
DF
 
 

He is still seeing this war through a western lens.  He makes a lot of very good points, however, appears stuck on “winning through manoeuvre”, which we have seen little of in the prosecution of this war.  A deliberate assault - frankly, I disagree with him here, as the RA proved back this spring the opposed water xing is probably harder - to break through and then exploit is employing western biased metrics.
Corrosive warfare does not do this, or at least it is not on the critical path.  As we saw in quick time at Kharkiv and slower time at Kherson, the aim is to employ precision strike to erode an opponent to the point their operational system fails. This has happened three times to the RA - northern advances in Ph I, Kharkiv and Kherson.  This was all done by merciless corrosion until the RA failed and was forced to withdraw, while taking casualties on high value systems they cannot replace.
South and east of Kherson will be the same story.  If the UA can continue to erode RA logistics, ISR and longe range fires - with the added pressure of the weather, the RA system will likely buckle again.  They can dig all the trenches they want, once the ammo, food and ability to rotate troops all cease it is simply a matter of time.  Why the UA would want to risk valuable assets and people on reckless direct assaults the make no sense?  Infiltrate-Isolate-Eliminate-Repeat : Fog eating snow but now with winter on their side it is “fog eating Russian soldier-popsicles”.
Fundamentally the good general is describing the employment of fast-mass to beat defensive mass which is exactly what our dogma…er, “doctrine” says. The UA has been employing anti-mass far more effectively on both defence and offence - which links back to that Finnish approach post.  It would appear that it is anti-mass’s time to shine

I think the writer would agree with you. As long as the Brits used their resources properly reserving enough to defend against an unlikely crossing. Germany's fantasy quickly became a reality when they directed their resources at the wrong targets - civilians. The writer is drawing a similar conclusion with Russia wasting attacks on civilians. In either war, production was/is a limiting factor and a focus on either civilians or the battlefield did not/ will not matter in the end. However, a focus on military targets is more efficacious because, given sufficient support, populations can be very durable. 

Pretty good concise student article on the attrition war - missile exchanges vs costs and ultimate effects:
 https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/11/26/ukraine_can_beat_russia_in_the_bombardment_war_of_attrition_866862.html
AKA ... 
"It's the battlefield stupid". You can't get rid of Putin, or similar regimes, without giving Russia's elites the military catastrophe their deserve. The current missile war appears almost like a death wish. 
 
 

I don't think @danfrodo was suggesting that Ukraine be given a pass because of the good treatment they've rendered in other instances. I think his point was that we shouldn't lose sight of that.
It's an unfortunate side effect of the nature of journalism harkening back to Journalism 101, "Dog Bites Man" is not news, but "Man Bites Dog" is news. So when the "good guys" do something bad (the unexpected) it's more newsworthy than good guys doing something good (or bad guys doing something bad).

We have dozens and dozens and dozens of videos of RU prisoners being treated well, often better than required, by UKR soldiers.  We have one instance that, depending on how one views it, can be viewed as very bad.  So let's take that one instance and paint everything with that and let it change our view on the much bigger picture of Putin's ongoing war of serial mass murder, child kidnapping, city destruction, and economic ruin.  And then let's debate it ad nauseum.  

I watch all of it with the volume off. The one in fifty that has narration in in Ukrainian, sadly I don't speak it so....

Excellent ,if grim, article. Assuming the author is correct, and that is a largish assumption, there is nothing for it but to redouble support for Ukraine. If the Russian elite cannot be convinced to change course there is no choice but to kill chmobiks until they simply refuse to show up. Ukraine needs what it has needed for months. Abrams, IFVs, ATACAMS, and as much 155 as it takes. Concrete for new ammo plants needs to be poured YESTERDAY. Ukraine needs to be able to put the best part of a KILOMETER of the Kerch Bridge in the water just to make a statement of resolve. We will see what Russian elite opinion is when they simply don't have an army left.

I think this forum has a good handle on technical, tactical, and strategical discussion of events in the battlespace. But these discussions of NATO, Article 5, no fly zones, world politics, nuclear weapons, and so are usually weak and come to people just making gut feelings or wishes of events.

I think it would be good to step back from edge and think with a more sedate mindset about what might happen now. Or better to keep larger focus on this groups strengths

Yes, that's the high water mark, maybe (season adjusted). The flood quickly ebbs again, leaving lots of property damage in that zone, but probably no military losses worth speaking of.
...And then you're right back where you began. Except Russians have committed their latest act of scorched earth vandalism to add to the 'reparations' tab. The cession of Krasnodar oblast to Ukraine ought to about square it. Maybe throw in Rostov as an 'autonomous Cossack Republic' (buffer zone) or sumfink.
...The Muscovites can now pay hefty tolls for use of "Novoukraina" port (formerly Novorossiysk).

Zelensky amazes me.  Here's a guy that only 4 years ago was an actor, comedian and businessman with a law degree and no foreign policy, governmental or military experience.  But yet, he's leading one of the most complex, challenging globally high profile and difficult situations of this century.  And he seems to be making all the right moves time and again.  The way he handles himself, his words and quiet but confident demeanor continue to be on point.  Yes, I'm sure he's getting expertise, coaching and direction from multiple sources---but he's choosing to listen and take advise from seemingly all the right people which is an art unto itself. 
And to think what his life is like on a daily basis, to have to be "on" month after month.  The guy flat out has my respect and I hope to someday read his memoirs on from late 2021 until this ends.  
 
 

Perun discusses the culture of lying in the Russian military.

I can only imagine how proud he feels for liberating Kherson from RU occupation.
A true hero.
When this war is over I hope Ukraine's military leaders will write about their experiences in this war, and those books will be translated into English. I really want to read them.

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

https://www.thebulwark.com/the-liberation-of-kherson/
A big outcome of the US elections is that the candidates pushing hardest to reduce aid to Ukraine last pretty badly. For you non-US folks, the out party tends to crush in the mid terms. This time, it didn't. Really good news.

Wow.
Just wow.
Putting the flag of the EU up in Kherson, smart. Amazingly smart.
This war and everything it has exposed thus far is one for the history books, generations will refer to it. 
 
 
 
 

Nothing to be glum about. For months in this thread and worldwide, most people doubted the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retake Kherson, to defeat the Russian military, to illustrate the ability to liberate their homeland through military means and today means all doubters are silenced.
Russia was not supposed to lose Kherson. It was to one day take Odessa from Kherson as a launch point. Nevermind military strategy, the Russian military was supposed to be powerful enough and have defeated the Ukrainian attacks in such a manner that Kherson was "forever Russian".
All of that is dashed and with it, the image of the Russian Armed Forces.

It appears that retreating remains the Russian army's only actual military skill. Perhaps that is because they get so much practice. And while i am sure the list of revealed crimes will be nearly unbearable, Kherson does not look like Severodonetsk. A victory by any measure. Hopefully the Russians will get practice their one real skill again, very soon.
 
Edit: I cross posted with the The _Capt, who of course said all of it much better than I did.

well, hopefully RU folks believe.  Hopefully they are seeing UKR ghosts everywhere and this will cause rear echelon panic, at least for a few days. 

I see what you're saying but looking at the big picture it's still a masterpiece.  A huge portion of UKR territory liberated without high cost to UKR.  A lot of RU losses along the way in men and especially material.  A lot of RU resources spent on a lost cause for many months.  A political humiliation for Putin.  UKR will be able to redeploy its fully equipped units elsewhere.  RU will have an unarmed, demoralized rabble to redeploy.  A huge victory via an opportunity created by interdiction of supply.
Catching all those men in kessel would be extra icing on the cake.  But it's still a huge and delicious cake.  

It's a monumental waste of money that we can't and should not afford. Wasting half a billion dollars on a plane that was never profitable and would fly twice a year is even ethically wrong at this point. Especially since we are donating to buy winter uniforms for our soldiers and many of them aren't getting paid for 3 months because MoD is heavily under budget.

I would argue that the game being played here is much, much bigger than this.  This is a contest of wills between Russia and the western global order, the stakes are so much higher than the single nation of Ukraine.  They speak to the course our species will chart for the rest of the century.  If the western global order is finished we are back to the anarchy of states and then a power competition to create a new order which will likely make Ukraine look like a "minor border skirmish".

That Zelensky feels comfortable pushing and Biden feels comfortable pushing back is an indication of closeness in an alliance rather that the opposite. I would put this story in the ‘normal alliance horse trading’ box.

Russia was threatening to pull out of the grain deal days ago, and for that matter weeks ago. If they hadn't pulled out this week over the USV strike, they would have pulled out next week over a Himarsed convoy of hapless mobiks, or something. Putin is losing, and he has realized time isn't on his side after all. That winter is going to push Russian KIA from 500 a day to 1000. He is desperate to kick the the chessboard over. So what NATO needs to do is say fine and give Ukraine the hardware to make Russia's casualties 2000 KIA a day. It is a war, you have to kill them until THEY know they are beaten. I can't remember who I stole that from, but it is true. Boiling the frog slowly is just running up the body count on both sides. We need to blow pot out of the kitchen and three houses over, and send the Russian army HOME.
 
The frog needs to be part of that smear on the ceiling.