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Eddy

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  1. Like
    Eddy reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Good question. I *believe* it's still in place, but does not yet have the required signatures to move forward. It requires a majority of the House, (218). But it is still open to be signed by others. 
    The better news is that it sounds now quite likely the aid bill(s) will pass - (s) because it's convoluted. The bills were split to be voted separately, and then will be recombined so that they match the Senate bill already passed - or close to it so the Senate can quickly vote on the House version.
    Complicated, arcane rules.

    Dave
  2. Like
    Eddy reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Many different sources official and unofficial, Russian TG and UKR ATESH underground in Cimea give different information about results. We should wait satellite images. 
    Here is General Staff posted a mixed video - at the start we can see probably ATACAMS launches (on one of videos, filmed by locals clearly sounds of multiple cluster minitions explosions are heard), then intensive flashing burning - likely SAM missiles detonate. 
    FIRMS map of fire on the airfield

    Allegedle (but unverified) photos of destroyed launchers on airfield

    Total claimed losses of different sources:
    3 S-400 launchers + radar, 2 S-300 launchers, staying under repair in repairing units on airfield, 2 Ka-52 and 2 Mi-28 helicopters seriously damaged, about 30 of personnel killed, 80 wounded. 
    GUR claims: 4 S-400 launchers and 3 radars, AD control post, "Fundamnet-M" automatized control complex. 
    Russian TG claims: "nothing what can fly wasn't hit"
    Last one is on the photo:
     
    "Fundament-M" allows to coordinate actions of SAM regiment autimatically in repelling of aerial attack. There are no enough information in open sources about this stuff. First time this system appeared on armament of AD in 2015.
  3. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from ZellZeka in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is the bit I really don't understand. The Ukrainians are targeting refineries, which produce petrol/gas, kerosine, heavy fuels etc. The global oil price is for crude oil, not refined products, and it is global crude oil price that determines how expensive locally refined petrochemical products are, whether that be in the US, Europe, India or anywhere. The Ukrainians have not attacked crude oil production or distribution AFAIK, Hence I can't see how attacking refineries could push up crude oil prices. The present oil price rise is due to Opec+ cutting production and concerns over the Middle East. 
    If you blow up a steel plant it does not push up the price of iron ore. 
    It could well be I'm missing something. I'm happy to be educated because I just can't follow the logic, 
     
  4. Like
    Eddy reacted to Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't know if anyone has posted this yet, but  RUSI just published a paper on the present and near future state of drone warfare.
    Mass Precision Strike: Designing UAV Complexes for Land Forces
    by Justin Bronk and Jack Watling
    Excerpt:
    Swarming capabilities are commonly touted as the most significant area of capability development in the small UAV defence sector. However, the requirement to swarm introduces significant hardware and software complexity, which in turn drives cost growth and reduces the number of individual assets that can be fielded for any given budget. Massed UAV groupings, as seen regularly in light shows at civilian displays, rely on a ground control station tracking the position of all UAVs in a formation at all times and a central mission computer sending commands to each one to coordinate their movements. This allows large numbers of very simple small UAVs to fly in a coordinated fashion, but it is not a practical approach for military UAVs and weapons in a contested battlespace, due to terrain masking, EW, signal range and emissions control challenges – the ground control station would be struck, decapitating the whole swarm. Instead, for a mass precision strike complex to be capable of swarming tactics, the individual assets involved must have onboard sensors and low-latency datalinks that are resistant to hostile EW disruption. In addition, each asset must carry a mission computer powerful enough, and software complex enough, to fuse the information about terrain, threats and targets received from its own  sensors and those of other UAVs in the formation through datalinks, and to react to that information dynamically in real time. These capabilities are not inherently new, nor are they reliant on advances in AI or complex machine learning models. However, what the requirements for sensors, datalinks and advanced software do is raise component costs, even if used with an inherently cheap airframe/engine combination.
    Furthermore, if a mass precision strike system is premised on swarming tactics for its effectiveness against its core target sets, then the number of assets required to use it in a sustained fashion will be increased, due to the need to consistently project sufficient assets into the target area to swarm. In conjunction with the increased hardware and software complexity required, this requirement to sustainably field swarming UAVs in large quantities over time means that fielding this sort of system as more than a ‘Night One’ theatre entry tool is likely to be uneconomical.
    In terms of where swarming capabilities are likely to add value commensurate with the additional cost implied by their inclusion as part of a precision strike complex, the primary application will be to improve the capability to overwhelm air defence systems... Other advantages of swarming capabilities are that they can help reduce wasted warheads by deconflicting target selection so that multiple assets do not hit the same target. However, doing so in a way that can differentiate between a target having been hit and successfully disabled versus a target having been hit ineffectively and thus requiring a repeat strike with another asset requires significantly more advanced sensor and processing capabilities than simple deconfliction. Ultimately, for target deconfliction and strike optimisation, the value added question will come down to whether the additional efficiency against defended and undefended target sets gained from functional swarming capabilities outweighs the strike weight foregone by the increase in individual asset cost and the resultant reduction in quantity.
  5. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from ehbuh in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Free e-book: War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (Project MUSE - War in Ukraine (jhu.edu))
    Found this e-book which is a collection of essays on the invasion (it's from John Hopkins University, released under a Creative Commons licence). The contents and authors are:
    The Ukraine War and Global Order => Hal Brands

    1 Ukraine, Russia, China, and the World => Stephen Kotkin
    2 Why Putin Invaded Ukraine => Michael McFaul and Robert Person
    3 Strategic Fanaticism: Vladimir Putin and Ukraine => Lawrence Freedman
    4 The Failure to Deter: US Policy toward Ukraine and Russia from the End of the Cold War until February 24, 2022 =>
    Michael Kimmage
    5 How the War Will End => Anne Applebaum
    Part ii: The Conflict
    6 The Russia-Ukraine War: Military Operations and Battlefield Dynamics => Michael Kofman
    7 Russian Military Resilience and Adaptation: Implications for the War in Ukraine and Beyond => Dara Massicot
    8 Planning for the Worst: The Russia-Ukraine “Tiger Team” => Alexander Bick
    9 US Strategy in Ukraine => Kori Schake
    10 Nuclear Lessons and Dilemmas from the War in Ukraine => Francis J. Gavin
    11 Fallacies of Strategic Thinking in the Ukraine War  => Thomas G. Mahnken and Joshua Baker
    Part iii: Global Dimensions and Implications
    12 The Ukraine War and Global Cleavages => Ashley J. Tellis
    13 Putin’s Point of No Return  => Andrea Kendall-Taylor
    14 Accelerating Profound Changes Unseen in a Century: Chinese Assessments of and Responses to Russia’s Invasion 
    of Ukraine  => Bonny Lin and Brian Hart
    15 The European Union as a War Project: Five Pathways toward a Geopolitical Europe => Mark Leonard
    16 Lose-Lose: The Economic Sanctions of the Russo-Ukrainian War => Daniel W. Drezner
    17 America’s Global Role in the Shadow of the Ukraine Conflict => Peter D. Feaver and William Inbode
    It's 300-odd pages long in total, but each chapter is it's own essay which should make it a little less daunting. Some distinguished names have contributed; Laurance Freedman, Anne Applebaum, Dara Massicot, Kofman.
    I've only read the first few chapters but so far, so good.
     
     
  6. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from Livdoc44 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Free e-book: War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (Project MUSE - War in Ukraine (jhu.edu))
    Found this e-book which is a collection of essays on the invasion (it's from John Hopkins University, released under a Creative Commons licence). The contents and authors are:
    The Ukraine War and Global Order => Hal Brands

    1 Ukraine, Russia, China, and the World => Stephen Kotkin
    2 Why Putin Invaded Ukraine => Michael McFaul and Robert Person
    3 Strategic Fanaticism: Vladimir Putin and Ukraine => Lawrence Freedman
    4 The Failure to Deter: US Policy toward Ukraine and Russia from the End of the Cold War until February 24, 2022 =>
    Michael Kimmage
    5 How the War Will End => Anne Applebaum
    Part ii: The Conflict
    6 The Russia-Ukraine War: Military Operations and Battlefield Dynamics => Michael Kofman
    7 Russian Military Resilience and Adaptation: Implications for the War in Ukraine and Beyond => Dara Massicot
    8 Planning for the Worst: The Russia-Ukraine “Tiger Team” => Alexander Bick
    9 US Strategy in Ukraine => Kori Schake
    10 Nuclear Lessons and Dilemmas from the War in Ukraine => Francis J. Gavin
    11 Fallacies of Strategic Thinking in the Ukraine War  => Thomas G. Mahnken and Joshua Baker
    Part iii: Global Dimensions and Implications
    12 The Ukraine War and Global Cleavages => Ashley J. Tellis
    13 Putin’s Point of No Return  => Andrea Kendall-Taylor
    14 Accelerating Profound Changes Unseen in a Century: Chinese Assessments of and Responses to Russia’s Invasion 
    of Ukraine  => Bonny Lin and Brian Hart
    15 The European Union as a War Project: Five Pathways toward a Geopolitical Europe => Mark Leonard
    16 Lose-Lose: The Economic Sanctions of the Russo-Ukrainian War => Daniel W. Drezner
    17 America’s Global Role in the Shadow of the Ukraine Conflict => Peter D. Feaver and William Inbode
    It's 300-odd pages long in total, but each chapter is it's own essay which should make it a little less daunting. Some distinguished names have contributed; Laurance Freedman, Anne Applebaum, Dara Massicot, Kofman.
    I've only read the first few chapters but so far, so good.
     
     
  7. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from CAZmaj in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Free e-book: War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (Project MUSE - War in Ukraine (jhu.edu))
    Found this e-book which is a collection of essays on the invasion (it's from John Hopkins University, released under a Creative Commons licence). The contents and authors are:
    The Ukraine War and Global Order => Hal Brands

    1 Ukraine, Russia, China, and the World => Stephen Kotkin
    2 Why Putin Invaded Ukraine => Michael McFaul and Robert Person
    3 Strategic Fanaticism: Vladimir Putin and Ukraine => Lawrence Freedman
    4 The Failure to Deter: US Policy toward Ukraine and Russia from the End of the Cold War until February 24, 2022 =>
    Michael Kimmage
    5 How the War Will End => Anne Applebaum
    Part ii: The Conflict
    6 The Russia-Ukraine War: Military Operations and Battlefield Dynamics => Michael Kofman
    7 Russian Military Resilience and Adaptation: Implications for the War in Ukraine and Beyond => Dara Massicot
    8 Planning for the Worst: The Russia-Ukraine “Tiger Team” => Alexander Bick
    9 US Strategy in Ukraine => Kori Schake
    10 Nuclear Lessons and Dilemmas from the War in Ukraine => Francis J. Gavin
    11 Fallacies of Strategic Thinking in the Ukraine War  => Thomas G. Mahnken and Joshua Baker
    Part iii: Global Dimensions and Implications
    12 The Ukraine War and Global Cleavages => Ashley J. Tellis
    13 Putin’s Point of No Return  => Andrea Kendall-Taylor
    14 Accelerating Profound Changes Unseen in a Century: Chinese Assessments of and Responses to Russia’s Invasion 
    of Ukraine  => Bonny Lin and Brian Hart
    15 The European Union as a War Project: Five Pathways toward a Geopolitical Europe => Mark Leonard
    16 Lose-Lose: The Economic Sanctions of the Russo-Ukrainian War => Daniel W. Drezner
    17 America’s Global Role in the Shadow of the Ukraine Conflict => Peter D. Feaver and William Inbode
    It's 300-odd pages long in total, but each chapter is it's own essay which should make it a little less daunting. Some distinguished names have contributed; Laurance Freedman, Anne Applebaum, Dara Massicot, Kofman.
    I've only read the first few chapters but so far, so good.
     
     
  8. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from fry30 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Free e-book: War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (Project MUSE - War in Ukraine (jhu.edu))
    Found this e-book which is a collection of essays on the invasion (it's from John Hopkins University, released under a Creative Commons licence). The contents and authors are:
    The Ukraine War and Global Order => Hal Brands

    1 Ukraine, Russia, China, and the World => Stephen Kotkin
    2 Why Putin Invaded Ukraine => Michael McFaul and Robert Person
    3 Strategic Fanaticism: Vladimir Putin and Ukraine => Lawrence Freedman
    4 The Failure to Deter: US Policy toward Ukraine and Russia from the End of the Cold War until February 24, 2022 =>
    Michael Kimmage
    5 How the War Will End => Anne Applebaum
    Part ii: The Conflict
    6 The Russia-Ukraine War: Military Operations and Battlefield Dynamics => Michael Kofman
    7 Russian Military Resilience and Adaptation: Implications for the War in Ukraine and Beyond => Dara Massicot
    8 Planning for the Worst: The Russia-Ukraine “Tiger Team” => Alexander Bick
    9 US Strategy in Ukraine => Kori Schake
    10 Nuclear Lessons and Dilemmas from the War in Ukraine => Francis J. Gavin
    11 Fallacies of Strategic Thinking in the Ukraine War  => Thomas G. Mahnken and Joshua Baker
    Part iii: Global Dimensions and Implications
    12 The Ukraine War and Global Cleavages => Ashley J. Tellis
    13 Putin’s Point of No Return  => Andrea Kendall-Taylor
    14 Accelerating Profound Changes Unseen in a Century: Chinese Assessments of and Responses to Russia’s Invasion 
    of Ukraine  => Bonny Lin and Brian Hart
    15 The European Union as a War Project: Five Pathways toward a Geopolitical Europe => Mark Leonard
    16 Lose-Lose: The Economic Sanctions of the Russo-Ukrainian War => Daniel W. Drezner
    17 America’s Global Role in the Shadow of the Ukraine Conflict => Peter D. Feaver and William Inbode
    It's 300-odd pages long in total, but each chapter is it's own essay which should make it a little less daunting. Some distinguished names have contributed; Laurance Freedman, Anne Applebaum, Dara Massicot, Kofman.
    I've only read the first few chapters but so far, so good.
     
     
  9. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Free e-book: War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (Project MUSE - War in Ukraine (jhu.edu))
    Found this e-book which is a collection of essays on the invasion (it's from John Hopkins University, released under a Creative Commons licence). The contents and authors are:
    The Ukraine War and Global Order => Hal Brands

    1 Ukraine, Russia, China, and the World => Stephen Kotkin
    2 Why Putin Invaded Ukraine => Michael McFaul and Robert Person
    3 Strategic Fanaticism: Vladimir Putin and Ukraine => Lawrence Freedman
    4 The Failure to Deter: US Policy toward Ukraine and Russia from the End of the Cold War until February 24, 2022 =>
    Michael Kimmage
    5 How the War Will End => Anne Applebaum
    Part ii: The Conflict
    6 The Russia-Ukraine War: Military Operations and Battlefield Dynamics => Michael Kofman
    7 Russian Military Resilience and Adaptation: Implications for the War in Ukraine and Beyond => Dara Massicot
    8 Planning for the Worst: The Russia-Ukraine “Tiger Team” => Alexander Bick
    9 US Strategy in Ukraine => Kori Schake
    10 Nuclear Lessons and Dilemmas from the War in Ukraine => Francis J. Gavin
    11 Fallacies of Strategic Thinking in the Ukraine War  => Thomas G. Mahnken and Joshua Baker
    Part iii: Global Dimensions and Implications
    12 The Ukraine War and Global Cleavages => Ashley J. Tellis
    13 Putin’s Point of No Return  => Andrea Kendall-Taylor
    14 Accelerating Profound Changes Unseen in a Century: Chinese Assessments of and Responses to Russia’s Invasion 
    of Ukraine  => Bonny Lin and Brian Hart
    15 The European Union as a War Project: Five Pathways toward a Geopolitical Europe => Mark Leonard
    16 Lose-Lose: The Economic Sanctions of the Russo-Ukrainian War => Daniel W. Drezner
    17 America’s Global Role in the Shadow of the Ukraine Conflict => Peter D. Feaver and William Inbode
    It's 300-odd pages long in total, but each chapter is it's own essay which should make it a little less daunting. Some distinguished names have contributed; Laurance Freedman, Anne Applebaum, Dara Massicot, Kofman.
    I've only read the first few chapters but so far, so good.
     
     
  10. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from G.I. Joe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Free e-book: War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (Project MUSE - War in Ukraine (jhu.edu))
    Found this e-book which is a collection of essays on the invasion (it's from John Hopkins University, released under a Creative Commons licence). The contents and authors are:
    The Ukraine War and Global Order => Hal Brands

    1 Ukraine, Russia, China, and the World => Stephen Kotkin
    2 Why Putin Invaded Ukraine => Michael McFaul and Robert Person
    3 Strategic Fanaticism: Vladimir Putin and Ukraine => Lawrence Freedman
    4 The Failure to Deter: US Policy toward Ukraine and Russia from the End of the Cold War until February 24, 2022 =>
    Michael Kimmage
    5 How the War Will End => Anne Applebaum
    Part ii: The Conflict
    6 The Russia-Ukraine War: Military Operations and Battlefield Dynamics => Michael Kofman
    7 Russian Military Resilience and Adaptation: Implications for the War in Ukraine and Beyond => Dara Massicot
    8 Planning for the Worst: The Russia-Ukraine “Tiger Team” => Alexander Bick
    9 US Strategy in Ukraine => Kori Schake
    10 Nuclear Lessons and Dilemmas from the War in Ukraine => Francis J. Gavin
    11 Fallacies of Strategic Thinking in the Ukraine War  => Thomas G. Mahnken and Joshua Baker
    Part iii: Global Dimensions and Implications
    12 The Ukraine War and Global Cleavages => Ashley J. Tellis
    13 Putin’s Point of No Return  => Andrea Kendall-Taylor
    14 Accelerating Profound Changes Unseen in a Century: Chinese Assessments of and Responses to Russia’s Invasion 
    of Ukraine  => Bonny Lin and Brian Hart
    15 The European Union as a War Project: Five Pathways toward a Geopolitical Europe => Mark Leonard
    16 Lose-Lose: The Economic Sanctions of the Russo-Ukrainian War => Daniel W. Drezner
    17 America’s Global Role in the Shadow of the Ukraine Conflict => Peter D. Feaver and William Inbode
    It's 300-odd pages long in total, but each chapter is it's own essay which should make it a little less daunting. Some distinguished names have contributed; Laurance Freedman, Anne Applebaum, Dara Massicot, Kofman.
    I've only read the first few chapters but so far, so good.
     
     
  11. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Free e-book: War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (Project MUSE - War in Ukraine (jhu.edu))
    Found this e-book which is a collection of essays on the invasion (it's from John Hopkins University, released under a Creative Commons licence). The contents and authors are:
    The Ukraine War and Global Order => Hal Brands

    1 Ukraine, Russia, China, and the World => Stephen Kotkin
    2 Why Putin Invaded Ukraine => Michael McFaul and Robert Person
    3 Strategic Fanaticism: Vladimir Putin and Ukraine => Lawrence Freedman
    4 The Failure to Deter: US Policy toward Ukraine and Russia from the End of the Cold War until February 24, 2022 =>
    Michael Kimmage
    5 How the War Will End => Anne Applebaum
    Part ii: The Conflict
    6 The Russia-Ukraine War: Military Operations and Battlefield Dynamics => Michael Kofman
    7 Russian Military Resilience and Adaptation: Implications for the War in Ukraine and Beyond => Dara Massicot
    8 Planning for the Worst: The Russia-Ukraine “Tiger Team” => Alexander Bick
    9 US Strategy in Ukraine => Kori Schake
    10 Nuclear Lessons and Dilemmas from the War in Ukraine => Francis J. Gavin
    11 Fallacies of Strategic Thinking in the Ukraine War  => Thomas G. Mahnken and Joshua Baker
    Part iii: Global Dimensions and Implications
    12 The Ukraine War and Global Cleavages => Ashley J. Tellis
    13 Putin’s Point of No Return  => Andrea Kendall-Taylor
    14 Accelerating Profound Changes Unseen in a Century: Chinese Assessments of and Responses to Russia’s Invasion 
    of Ukraine  => Bonny Lin and Brian Hart
    15 The European Union as a War Project: Five Pathways toward a Geopolitical Europe => Mark Leonard
    16 Lose-Lose: The Economic Sanctions of the Russo-Ukrainian War => Daniel W. Drezner
    17 America’s Global Role in the Shadow of the Ukraine Conflict => Peter D. Feaver and William Inbode
    It's 300-odd pages long in total, but each chapter is it's own essay which should make it a little less daunting. Some distinguished names have contributed; Laurance Freedman, Anne Applebaum, Dara Massicot, Kofman.
    I've only read the first few chapters but so far, so good.
     
     
  12. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Free e-book: War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (Project MUSE - War in Ukraine (jhu.edu))
    Found this e-book which is a collection of essays on the invasion (it's from John Hopkins University, released under a Creative Commons licence). The contents and authors are:
    The Ukraine War and Global Order => Hal Brands

    1 Ukraine, Russia, China, and the World => Stephen Kotkin
    2 Why Putin Invaded Ukraine => Michael McFaul and Robert Person
    3 Strategic Fanaticism: Vladimir Putin and Ukraine => Lawrence Freedman
    4 The Failure to Deter: US Policy toward Ukraine and Russia from the End of the Cold War until February 24, 2022 =>
    Michael Kimmage
    5 How the War Will End => Anne Applebaum
    Part ii: The Conflict
    6 The Russia-Ukraine War: Military Operations and Battlefield Dynamics => Michael Kofman
    7 Russian Military Resilience and Adaptation: Implications for the War in Ukraine and Beyond => Dara Massicot
    8 Planning for the Worst: The Russia-Ukraine “Tiger Team” => Alexander Bick
    9 US Strategy in Ukraine => Kori Schake
    10 Nuclear Lessons and Dilemmas from the War in Ukraine => Francis J. Gavin
    11 Fallacies of Strategic Thinking in the Ukraine War  => Thomas G. Mahnken and Joshua Baker
    Part iii: Global Dimensions and Implications
    12 The Ukraine War and Global Cleavages => Ashley J. Tellis
    13 Putin’s Point of No Return  => Andrea Kendall-Taylor
    14 Accelerating Profound Changes Unseen in a Century: Chinese Assessments of and Responses to Russia’s Invasion 
    of Ukraine  => Bonny Lin and Brian Hart
    15 The European Union as a War Project: Five Pathways toward a Geopolitical Europe => Mark Leonard
    16 Lose-Lose: The Economic Sanctions of the Russo-Ukrainian War => Daniel W. Drezner
    17 America’s Global Role in the Shadow of the Ukraine Conflict => Peter D. Feaver and William Inbode
    It's 300-odd pages long in total, but each chapter is it's own essay which should make it a little less daunting. Some distinguished names have contributed; Laurance Freedman, Anne Applebaum, Dara Massicot, Kofman.
    I've only read the first few chapters but so far, so good.
     
     
  13. Like
    Eddy reacted to alison in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is the key point to take away from the rather tedious past couple days on this thread.
    The challenging part is that propagandists can come up with reams and reams of verbose, officious-sounding nonsense much faster than anyone can challenge it. This was already the case before large language models made it trivial to create pages of vaguely reasonable-sounding claptrap at the push of a button. Now it is worse. And when those propagandists are also working for authoritarian states that exercise near-totalitarian controls over the media landscape within their borders, they are also able to capture plenty of real-life stories that support the views they want to shape, while suppressing the spread of content that does not.
    Out here in the actually-free world, the propaganda coming from these authoritarian government mouthpieces seems laughably ineffective. How could anyone believe something that is such unabashed, unadulterated, full-blown propaganda? They're not even pretending it's otherwise! And yet, people believe it. "Free thinkers" with chips on their shoulders about their own government get bamboozled into believing that they are the ones living in an authoritarian state, actually. And then the "news" coming out of other authoritarian states can surely be no more fake than their own news, and, by the way, what is news other than propaganda, at the core? There are no facts, only interpretations, you see. This is why I don't mind you doubting. What is truth, anyway? Does anybody love anybody anyway?
    It is depressing how many people fall into this hole.
    This is not only why it is important to counter the Kremlin's lies, but also to consistently push back against the same kind of democracy-eroding rhetoric coming from media and political figures in parts of the world where there still is freedom of expression and freedom of association and so on. The people pushing it tend to either be useful idiots, or privileged enough (through age, wealth or power) to be insulated from the consequences. In both cases, not the best folks to be looking toward to inform your view of the world.
  14. Like
    Eddy reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    on the back of French supply of Aster missiles to Ukraine :
    https://www.quora.com/Is-the-SAMP-T-Aster-missile-better-than-the-US-Patriot-surface-to-air-missile-Which-is-better-than-the-other
    Decent comparison of Aster - SAMP/T and Patriot PAC-2.
     
  15. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not sure if this has been posted already, but I found this an interesting read:
    The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
    Here's the co-pilot summary of what is covered in the article
     
  16. Thanks
    Eddy got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not sure if this has been posted already, but I found this an interesting read:
    The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
    Here's the co-pilot summary of what is covered in the article
     
  17. Like
    Eddy reacted to Hapless in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shooting-blast-reported-concert-hall-near-moscow-agencies-2024-03-22/

    Quick tinfoil hat take:

    Putin secures election 'legitimacy'
    Peskov says it's no longer a Special Military Operation, it's a War
    Terror attack in Moscow
    ...
    Mobilisation
  18. Like
    Eddy reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  19. Like
    Eddy reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't know, I seem to remember quite a few reports saying that Ukraine generally struggles with coordination above a certain level. Doesn't mean Russia is any good at this, either. Not sure what is meant here but EW assets are usually higher level assets, right?
  20. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from chris talpas in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This article may explain an increase in Russian ISR:
    Russian Shahed-136 With Camera, Cellular Modem Could Be A Big Problem For Ukraine (twz.com)
    Co-pilot summary
     
  21. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This article may explain an increase in Russian ISR:
    Russian Shahed-136 With Camera, Cellular Modem Could Be A Big Problem For Ukraine (twz.com)
    Co-pilot summary
     
  22. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from LuckyDog in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This article may explain an increase in Russian ISR:
    Russian Shahed-136 With Camera, Cellular Modem Could Be A Big Problem For Ukraine (twz.com)
    Co-pilot summary
     
  23. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This article may explain an increase in Russian ISR:
    Russian Shahed-136 With Camera, Cellular Modem Could Be A Big Problem For Ukraine (twz.com)
    Co-pilot summary
     
  24. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This article may explain an increase in Russian ISR:
    Russian Shahed-136 With Camera, Cellular Modem Could Be A Big Problem For Ukraine (twz.com)
    Co-pilot summary
     
  25. Thanks
    Eddy got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This article may explain an increase in Russian ISR:
    Russian Shahed-136 With Camera, Cellular Modem Could Be A Big Problem For Ukraine (twz.com)
    Co-pilot summary
     
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