General Jack Ripper

Sad news.
I got a new PC, finally got all my stuff ported over, and just discovered my Road to Montebourg save file got missed.
I pulled everything from the my documents folder out, but because CMBN doesn't use that file setup, the save file was in the game install folder instead.
Sigh.
I dunno why BF went with that stupid idea to put game files and data folder in the f*****g MY DOCUMENTS folder, then to not retroactively apply that change to CMBN.
JUST
INSTALL
THE
F*****G
GAME
WHERE
I
WANT
IT
INSTALLED
Anyway, having already had this problem previously I'm not doing it again.
Thanks for the memories. Maybe now I can actually start playing the Commonwealth Module. 😆

Thanks for the nice pics and ermm extensive videos 👍.  Haven't been there before, but I do hang around at the Bovington Tank Museum (Dorset, UK) on a fairly regular basis, taking in the sights and the smells.  If you're ever in the area I highly recommend it.

Video tour up on youtube.
I have been informed the tube thing is a snorkel for fording rivers.
Feel free to comment on anything else I messed up, I know there's a few misplaced words and screwed up factoids here and there.
 

Had no idea that there were so many museums with so many great exhibits around the country.  This is one more if I get to MA.  Thanks...

The rational discussion I've received has been for people to tell me I'm wrong, then tell me to read 275 pages of forum posts.
I work for a living. Give me a break.
Starlink.
Okay. What about all the other altitudes?
I do think the Russians had the plan to establish air superiority, they failed to do so. There were a ****load of cruise missile attacks on radar sites and AA positions early on, but the Ukrainians proliferate mobile systems just like the Russians do.
I don't think a complete absence of threat was ever in the cards, but being able to cruise around largely unmolested at the higher altitudes you mentioned is still a huge advantage, and the complete absence of UKR air power these days is a big disadvantage to the defenders.
Thank you.
Which makes me wonder one burning question, "Are they waiting for something else to happen first?"
I don't know, but it will be interesting to find out.
Honestly I think Putin is safe politically, unless the entire population rises up against him, but I don't see that happening yet.
Economic? Definitely. This does seem to have been a massive throw of the dice on a very shaky bet. HOWEVER: Nord Stream 1 and 2 are still pumping gas, aren't they? We'll see.
Militarily? Seems so. But like I said before, let me know when the UKR counterattack shapes up because I REALLY want to see how that plays out.
Yeah, but a lot of that is shaped by a media perspective. One thing is for sure, all the media and information we receive is dominated by Ukrainian sources. I'm not saying I don't believe them, but I do question things when it's this one-sided.
One thing is for sure, Ukraine isn't going to surrender, so once again it's up to Mr. Putin to throw in the towel.
What I don't get is that they really seem to have drank the kool-ade and not deployed their best stuff. Either they didn't think they needed it, or they're waiting. If they are waiting, why?
If it is a matter of them simply tripping and falling on their own faces, then Putin should trow in the towel, come to the table, and just take whatever we tell him because Russia's days as a power of any scale are well and truly over.
But for some reason, I just don't see that happening.
I don't side-step that at all, I said repeatedly and many times it's up to Mr. Putin to end things. Ukraine is obviously going to fight, so this war will last as long as Putin makes it last.
That is my point and it's directly in line with everything stated here, but let me know when Ukraine invades Russia, because that would be awesome.
Russian Nationalism being destroyed by the Neo Cossack. What a reversal of history that would make!
Admittedly that's just a fever dream and I have no doubt if Russia is kicked out of Ukraine terms will be set.
IF...
That assumes Russia isn't content to control 15% of the country.
That may have been the plan all along. Who can say? Putin isn't talking to CNN so we don't know.
As much as I enjoy that old forum game. I've been around here for a very long time.
I take your point though, all I was trying to do was post 'Wot I Think'. Y'all were free to ignore it.
I whole-heartedly agree, which is why I'm not casting dispersions, blame, guessing at motives, propagandizing, describing anyone as hitler, or screaming to high heaven about support for one side or the other.
I just want to know whats happening, why, and how things might turn out. I gave my best assessment according to the information I have received over the past few weeks, layered it atop an assessment of likely capability going forward into the future, and made my conclusion.
This war will go on until Putin throws in the towel. Period.
I say the best way to get there is to kick his dudes back across the border with their tails between their legs, and until that happens victory will be incomplete. There will be that lingering doubt on the other side about, "If we try it again it might work next time." The problem is the UKR dudes are going to have to do it themselves. I don't think there will be a no-fly zone established, I don't think NATO will get involved, and beyond sending money and weapons and few crazy redditors trying to join the foreign legion, Ukraine is in this by themselves. The real test is whether or not they can do it. They have the will to fight, but can they physically do it?
I don't know. We'll see.
Thanks for the conversation.

I cannot speak to that except to say self-awareness is a rare trait in human beings.

I hadn't seen the March 17 report yet. I've been busy reading.
And yes, that's why I just let that comment slide right off my eyeballs, and my brain. But I simply cannot resist the 'Muh Winter War' meme. It's like a cat with a laser pointer. Gets me every time. As far as the previous one, well, let's just say it my way of making a statement about politics by rolling my eyes and groaning for all to hear.
I do get a bit irritated at being told to 'learn to read' given I could read before kindergarten. So I apologize for getting snippy. But I really do think drawing conclusions on a war that's been going for a matter of weeks, when we have no idea when or how it will end, is foolish. To turn around and tell someone they're wrong without at least explaining, with one or two sentences at least why you say that is also foolish.
I also think it's dumb to say something like, "It's ovah!!!" When the example of all of human history is before you.
It's over when BOTH sides say it's over, and not one nanosecond before then.

Okay.

You're right. I misread your post replying to me.
I blame the advil not working fast enough.

You're right. I misread your post replying to me.
I blame the advil not working fast enough.

Oh I'm sorry, am I not allowed to say what I think?
Geez, where do I think I am, a discussion forum or something?
Like I said, I'm wading through the hundreds of pages of posts as fast as I can, but it's definitely not a shining beacon of knowledge and education.

1) I don't care what the original plan was, and you should know by now as literally everyone on this forum should know, no plan survives contact with the enemy. As I stated in my post, things will continue until Mr. Putin decides to stop them.
2) I never said Russia has uncontested control of UKR airspace, please read my post again, or just learn to read in general, thanks.
3) I specifically reference the fact the Russian Navy has not been aggressive. What they have NOT done though is turn around head back to home port.
4) I would like to see this evidence of defeat please. I'm sorting through the pages of this thread as fast as I can, but the reddit-tier cringe and literal tweet posting is ruining my vision and giving me a headache, especially having to once again observe videos and tweets of stuff that was disproven, mistaken, or redacted weeks ago.
5) Yes, Russia is still winning. Until they are actually forced to go BACKWARDS they will continue winning. Key word: BACKWARDS. I'll say it again: UNTIL THEY GO BACKWARDS.
It's like you're desperately trying to both insinuate I'm saying something I'm not, and also make points that simply fly in the face of reality. The Russians have hundreds, or thousands of tanks and vehicles, hundreds of planes and helicopters, and thousands of troops in Ukraine. That is not what losing looks like. When Ukraine announces they've retaken Kherson, relieved Mariupol, or some other such thing, then I will be the first to say, "Yup, looks like they're winning."
Until the Russian comes to the table, or announces his intention to talk, then he thinks he's winning. If he thinks he's winning, then he still has a plan. If he still has a plan, then he's not just going to roll over and die.

🤣 I do wonder what universe some people live in.
 
They lost. Just have to remind you they lost. Okay? They lost. All right, let's move on.
 
So it's been about a month since this thread was started, and I think we have an answer to the question posed in the title. This is as hot as it's going to get. Whether or not Russia takes the entire country, or whether they are content to partition it is up to them to decide (but personally I'm leaning towards partitioning as a means of keeping them out of NATO), but a few things are clear now the situation has developed:
Ukraine cannot stop all of the Russian advances. They have had success with local counterattacks, and have stopped some advances temporarily, but Russian forces continue to advance in other areas. There have been 'operational pauses' but there have been no STOPS. The presence of western AT weapons and other lethal support extended to Ukraine by (he who shall not be named) (and others) has given them much more than the walkover they were expecting, but the Russian is tough and used to hardship, even those inflicted upon him by his own command structure. No supplies? No problem! Just steal food and gas from Ukrainian gas stations! People throwing molotov cocktails at you? No problem! Just tell them to go away or you will shoot them! The Russian is used to operating this way. Ukraine cannot control it's airspace. The Russians have taken losses, but they remain free to operate combat aircraft and helicopters over most of the country. Ukraine itself seems only capable of operating aircraft and helicopters in certain areas, and they cannot replace their losses without outside help. Very early in the invasion we heard reports of Ukrainian helicopters and aircraft attacking advancing Russian columns but those reports have died down, and the Russian wouldn't be parking a 40km long line of tanks, trucks, and other vehicles on the highway if there was any existing air threat. The Russian Navy has free access to the Black Sea, which means they can conduct fire support and amphibious operations anywhere they want to at any time. Ukraine has shown exactly zero capability to effect this outcome, although something makes me think there are still existing defenses in some areas., because the Russian has not operated as aggressively as I would think he could. The United States will do nothing but levy sanctions. The current leadership is incapable of doing anything else, an entire generation of people are now sick of foreign wars and interventions, and there will be no groundswell of support for intervention in Ukraine despite the froth mouthed rhetoric of people on twitter and reddit. The average American is more concerned about the crashing economy, inflation, the price of food and gas, and the fact we're currently stuck with a President and a Congress that doesn't seem capable of undoing the decisions that led to this outcome in the first place. I certainly am not running over to the recruitment center any more than I didn't for Afghanistan, or Iraq, or Syria, or Libya, etc. That's just me though, if you want to get your nuts up, and hop on a plane to Ukraine go right ahead. If you happen to meet a guy named Yuri Gavriluk tell him I said hi. Europe will do nothing more than levy sanctions. They rely too much on Russian oil and gas to make up shortfalls in their overall energy production, and they have long since allowed their defense spending to fall below the minimums set by NATO participation. They will need to increase funding, acquire new equipment, recruit and train  new troops, and then maybe a couple years from now consider intervention. Despite the fact (he who shall not be named) tried to call them out years ago for their lack of defense spending, insisting they 'pay their fair share' Europe at large just didn't care. Now the situation will most likely end before the EU is in a position to do anything about it. It really comes down to, how long does Russia want to keep this up, when they do call a stop, and what are going to be their terms for a ceasefire?
I'm only on page 12 right now but I doubt I'll see anything to refute any of this.

🤣 I do wonder what universe some people live in.
 
They lost. Just have to remind you they lost. Okay? They lost. All right, let's move on.
 
So it's been about a month since this thread was started, and I think we have an answer to the question posed in the title. This is as hot as it's going to get. Whether or not Russia takes the entire country, or whether they are content to partition it is up to them to decide (but personally I'm leaning towards partitioning as a means of keeping them out of NATO), but a few things are clear now the situation has developed:
Ukraine cannot stop all of the Russian advances. They have had success with local counterattacks, and have stopped some advances temporarily, but Russian forces continue to advance in other areas. There have been 'operational pauses' but there have been no STOPS. The presence of western AT weapons and other lethal support extended to Ukraine by (he who shall not be named) (and others) has given them much more than the walkover they were expecting, but the Russian is tough and used to hardship, even those inflicted upon him by his own command structure. No supplies? No problem! Just steal food and gas from Ukrainian gas stations! People throwing molotov cocktails at you? No problem! Just tell them to go away or you will shoot them! The Russian is used to operating this way. Ukraine cannot control it's airspace. The Russians have taken losses, but they remain free to operate combat aircraft and helicopters over most of the country. Ukraine itself seems only capable of operating aircraft and helicopters in certain areas, and they cannot replace their losses without outside help. Very early in the invasion we heard reports of Ukrainian helicopters and aircraft attacking advancing Russian columns but those reports have died down, and the Russian wouldn't be parking a 40km long line of tanks, trucks, and other vehicles on the highway if there was any existing air threat. The Russian Navy has free access to the Black Sea, which means they can conduct fire support and amphibious operations anywhere they want to at any time. Ukraine has shown exactly zero capability to effect this outcome, although something makes me think there are still existing defenses in some areas., because the Russian has not operated as aggressively as I would think he could. The United States will do nothing but levy sanctions. The current leadership is incapable of doing anything else, an entire generation of people are now sick of foreign wars and interventions, and there will be no groundswell of support for intervention in Ukraine despite the froth mouthed rhetoric of people on twitter and reddit. The average American is more concerned about the crashing economy, inflation, the price of food and gas, and the fact we're currently stuck with a President and a Congress that doesn't seem capable of undoing the decisions that led to this outcome in the first place. I certainly am not running over to the recruitment center any more than I didn't for Afghanistan, or Iraq, or Syria, or Libya, etc. That's just me though, if you want to get your nuts up, and hop on a plane to Ukraine go right ahead. If you happen to meet a guy named Yuri Gavriluk tell him I said hi. Europe will do nothing more than levy sanctions. They rely too much on Russian oil and gas to make up shortfalls in their overall energy production, and they have long since allowed their defense spending to fall below the minimums set by NATO participation. They will need to increase funding, acquire new equipment, recruit and train  new troops, and then maybe a couple years from now consider intervention. Despite the fact (he who shall not be named) tried to call them out years ago for their lack of defense spending, insisting they 'pay their fair share' Europe at large just didn't care. Now the situation will most likely end before the EU is in a position to do anything about it. It really comes down to, how long does Russia want to keep this up, when they do call a stop, and what are going to be their terms for a ceasefire?
I'm only on page 12 right now but I doubt I'll see anything to refute any of this.

Indeed. And don't forget the Russian minorities in the Baltic countries. Heck, Putin can even claim London since half of the Russian population lives there.

Agree, agree, agree, agree…. Wow! Dare I say we are all on pretty much the same page.
 
If NATO was this united it would scare the heck out of Putin. 

Can tell you from long and bitter experience that vehicles can and will bog on dry ground.  Not only that, they can and will Immobilize! If you have a high end AFV, that's the one this will happen to--with its flank exposed, no less. Contrariwise, if your oppnent had one it will kill everything of value, starting with your Combat Mission hopes and dreams, while being immune to anything you try to do to it. 

Regards,

John Kettler

Well for all those that moan about moving large numbers of vehicles down roads in CM as being a tedious and drawn out exercise at least now know that CMBS delivers hard core realism.

MikeyD et al.,

At least in some competitive group format, the Nabla System, the brainchild of our own Jarmo Hurri (Nabla) and Mike Meinecke back in the CMx1 days, was specifically built for imbalanced and even sure loss scenarios, because the metric wasn't how you did in absolute terms, but in how you did relative to everyone else playing your side in that particular scenario. Instead of obsessing over how unfair the scenario was, the player on the feces covered end of the stick instead focused on not just combat performance but force preservation and especially evacuating unhorsed AFV crews and prisoners, since both counted double points in assessing your individual performance. No longer was it a fight to the last tank and last grunt. See no reason why what worked great in CMx1 wouldn't do just as well in CMx2

http://cis.legacy.ics.tkk.fi/jarmo/nabla-system/manual-alpha.pdf

Regards,

John Kettler

The Game didn't get it wrong, Russian MoD got it wrong. 
CMBS is uncomfortably correct and accurate in how RUS should have done it, and frankly if they had copied CMBS op plans we'd all be talking about the Fall of Kiev and POW Zelensky right now.
 
 

No I don't see Russians as OP. What game got wrong is the assumption that Russia would deploy their latest HW on mass in Ukraine. We the gamers would have probably caused a riot in here if Battlefront did provide us originally with old instead of newer Russian HW.  People woud have been crying out all ove the place for their T90s, they still did with Armatas yet we still haven't see a single one; not even close to the border.  I second the suggestion to include older Russian HW + more modern AT for Ukraine as part of the future expansions. 

CMBS is, and always has been modeling a hypothetical scenario.
Let me say that again, HYPOTHETICAL.
One more time for posterity, and because some people have comprehension problems: HYPOTHETICAL.
There. There is no solution because there is no problem. Happy St. Patrick's Day to you all.
See y'all in a few more months I guess.

Actually there is one area where CMBS  might be overmodelling the Russians in a way that players can't do much about: ERA and active defense systems. The t-90s and upgraded t-72s in CMBS tend to come fully stocked with ERA packs and Shtora. On the evidence of what we've seen in Ukraine so far, they are significantly lacking in ERA coverage, particularly on the hull sides. Tanks in Ukraine seem rather more vulnerable to infantry AT weapons (aside from the Javelin) than the in-game counterparts. At least when it's my guys committing suicide by using their AT-4s to achieve nothing but drawing fire.
On the other hand, it's hard to say how much of that is selection bias. By definition, the ones we see photos and videos of are the ones that have been successfully knocked out, not the ones where someone missed, where a hit didn't penetrate, or where ERA was present and worked,

...and the video closeups of that beauty should rustle the jimmies of the Cold War players.