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General Jack Ripper

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Everything posted by General Jack Ripper

  1. Who cares? They've been killing each other for a century. Nothing's changed.
  2. Sad news. I got a new PC, finally got all my stuff ported over, and just discovered my Road to Montebourg save file got missed. I pulled everything from the my documents folder out, but because CMBN doesn't use that file setup, the save file was in the game install folder instead. Sigh. I dunno why BF went with that stupid idea to put game files and data folder in the f*****g MY DOCUMENTS folder, then to not retroactively apply that change to CMBN. JUST INSTALL THE F*****G GAME WHERE I WANT IT INSTALLED Anyway, having already had this problem previously I'm not doing it again. Thanks for the memories. Maybe now I can actually start playing the Commonwealth Module.
  3. Uh oh. Literally who? is mad at me!qPpgqDv.jpg

    lol

  4. >Tanks deployed five feet from each other.
  5. Quote

    Why don't you bend over and fondle Ukraine's genitals like the rest of us?

    You wouldn't get it, even if I explained it to you.

    trrAKFV.png

    He just wanted to be left alone.

  6. Video tour up on youtube. I have been informed the tube thing is a snorkel for fording rivers. Feel free to comment on anything else I messed up, I know there's a few misplaced words and screwed up factoids here and there.
  7. As I explained before, I did not see today's report. EDIT: It is most interesting to see Russian Naval Infantry in the fighting report considering just yesterday it said they wouldn't be able to land. I guess they landed?
  8. I still think all of my bullet points are correct and valid, and I've not seen anything that refutes anything I've said, aside from people misinterpreting what I said to mean something else. For example: I said, "Ukraine cannot control their airspace," which people immediately misinterpreted as me saying, "Russia has complete control of Ukrainian airspace." This is not now, nor has it ever been what I said, what I meant, or even a point I made, but you should be able to understand my frustration when this is the sort of response I get. I think it's called 'The Zebra Crossing Fallacy' (not my name for it) where if you are not one thing, then you MUST be the exact opposite thing! Because there is no middle ground anymore, about anything, ever. Combine that with the fact that I type very slowly and I do tend to get overwhelmed by a fast moving thread which makes me tend to not give a ****. I've been gone for some time, blame the Beer Situation and the fact my workload is directly related to it. I just popped back in because I figured some discussion was happening given current events, started reading the thread, saw how long it was, said "Screw it," and posted my existing synopsis figuring I'd catch up on any replies to it when I eventually read my way up there. What I didn't expect was the response I got. "Everything you said is wrong, go back and read 275 pages to find out why." Well, I don't come here often even on a good day, and given I really thought long and hard about posting, even about the snarky bits, that irritated me immediately. Okay, it's fair to call me out on the bit about the Winter War, or me laughing at the idea the USA is going to play political hardball in any capacity, but if you (not you specifically but a general "you") deny the political maneuvering statement out of hand as nothing but 'trolling' then you haven't addressed it either. What gets me though is if you guys have been discussing this for weeks, I would expect someone to take my bullet pointed synopsis (I PUT BULLET POINTS IN IT! I WAS TRYING!!) and simply refute each point with a sentence or two and go on about their day. I would eventually have read my way through the thread, saw what I had missed or gotten wrong, and said, "Thanks for the info." I think people got more hung up on my tone, than got bothered by anything I actually said. Well I'm not apologizing for my tone. It's just my style. We're all adults here. Sorry, where were we? I do tend to ramble on. It will indeed. I hadn't realized the Russian deployment was so extensive. Most of the info I've seen still maintains the original divisional assignments. Is this a case of RUS using other units as a replacement depot of sorts or are they committing intact units wholesale? Is the call-up for replacements or are entire reserve units being activated? The casualty figures I've seen are quite large, but not nearly enough to consume several divisions wholesale. I have to assume given the fact Russia hasn't fought a major war in a generation at least their divisions were at full strength when they stepped off, with ten thousand of personnel per division or so, and we had several divisions engaged. Even with casualties of up to 10,000 -20,000 (likely less than that?), those initial divisions are no longer combat capable but they are hardly destroyed. It's very difficult to figure though because every single source I see has different numbers which vary wildly, most of which are news articles copy-pasted from other news articles written by people who drink starbucks every morning (it's like five bucks a cup!?) and live in their parents spare bedroom. Aw shoot, I'm rambling again. I guess what I really meant was, what information do we have that all of the Russian first line units have been committed? Did they pull everything from everywhere? Do we have video or satellite of trains hauling divisions worth of stuff to the front? Have they re-deployed their Baltic unit? Has their been a major air power redeployment? Have squadrons or wings been pulled from other assignments? Have we seen indications of gasoline shortages in civilian areas indicating a shortage of production or excessive consumption? Has the pace of their shelling eased off indicating a lack of ammunition? Have we seen food shortages in areas outside of Ukraine? There's a whole lot of stuff we simply don't know (because the Russian media doesn't tell us, and the western media doesn't care to find out), and in the face of this uncertainty I have to assume the reports of 'imminent collapse of everything' are suspect at the very least. I also have to assume there are units elsewhere that have not been committed but could be if Putin wanted to. We've seen units of the Western and Southern District identified, but two 'Armies' (Divisions) are missing (St. Petersburg and Caucasus), and that's not counting if they wanted to borrow units from other districts. They still, (by my count using wikipedia fwiw) have six airborne units (div or bde) and two divisions in the central district which could be easily transported. That's 70-80,000 dudes they could bring in if they wanted to, with hundreds of tanks and various sundries. If this has already happened then I would of course, stand corrected. It just seems difficult to believe that everything available has been consumed in just a few weeks. Geez, is it 9:36pm already? I haven't even had dinner.
  9. If the objective is to negotiate for better terms, literally drum-firing a major city into rubble isn't going to help him one bit. What he would need to do, is demonstrate an ability to hold onto the territory he has taken, and demonstrate the inability of the UKR to take it back. That's if he's interested in negotiation, but the Russian has used a pretense of negotiation as a ruse before. I know your comment is from a couple hours ago, (geez I don't want to be accused of being behind the curve already!) but my later point about kicking him back across the border applies here. I think the best outcome is to kick his ***, until he cries uncle. But that's some starry-eyed dreaming there and I don't think things will be that clean or easy.
  10. You're right. I misread your post replying to me. I blame the advil not working fast enough.
  11. That's not what I meant, but I have to bow out. I meant units as opposed to specific pieces of equipment or vehicles. I shouldn't have said the word 'stuff'.
  12. I hadn't seen the March 17 report yet. I've been busy reading. And yes, that's why I just let that comment slide right off my eyeballs, and my brain. But I simply cannot resist the 'Muh Winter War' meme. It's like a cat with a laser pointer. Gets me every time. As far as the previous one, well, let's just say it my way of making a statement about politics by rolling my eyes and groaning for all to hear. I do get a bit irritated at being told to 'learn to read' given I could read before kindergarten. So I apologize for getting snippy. But I really do think drawing conclusions on a war that's been going for a matter of weeks, when we have no idea when or how it will end, is foolish. To turn around and tell someone they're wrong without at least explaining, with one or two sentences at least why you say that is also foolish. I also think it's dumb to say something like, "It's ovah!!!" When the example of all of human history is before you. It's over when BOTH sides say it's over, and not one nanosecond before then.
  13. The rational discussion I've received has been for people to tell me I'm wrong, then tell me to read 275 pages of forum posts. I work for a living. Give me a break. Starlink. Okay. What about all the other altitudes? I do think the Russians had the plan to establish air superiority, they failed to do so. There were a ****load of cruise missile attacks on radar sites and AA positions early on, but the Ukrainians proliferate mobile systems just like the Russians do. I don't think a complete absence of threat was ever in the cards, but being able to cruise around largely unmolested at the higher altitudes you mentioned is still a huge advantage, and the complete absence of UKR air power these days is a big disadvantage to the defenders. Thank you. Which makes me wonder one burning question, "Are they waiting for something else to happen first?" I don't know, but it will be interesting to find out. Honestly I think Putin is safe politically, unless the entire population rises up against him, but I don't see that happening yet. Economic? Definitely. This does seem to have been a massive throw of the dice on a very shaky bet. HOWEVER: Nord Stream 1 and 2 are still pumping gas, aren't they? We'll see. Militarily? Seems so. But like I said before, let me know when the UKR counterattack shapes up because I REALLY want to see how that plays out. Yeah, but a lot of that is shaped by a media perspective. One thing is for sure, all the media and information we receive is dominated by Ukrainian sources. I'm not saying I don't believe them, but I do question things when it's this one-sided. One thing is for sure, Ukraine isn't going to surrender, so once again it's up to Mr. Putin to throw in the towel. What I don't get is that they really seem to have drank the kool-ade and not deployed their best stuff. Either they didn't think they needed it, or they're waiting. If they are waiting, why? If it is a matter of them simply tripping and falling on their own faces, then Putin should trow in the towel, come to the table, and just take whatever we tell him because Russia's days as a power of any scale are well and truly over. But for some reason, I just don't see that happening. I don't side-step that at all, I said repeatedly and many times it's up to Mr. Putin to end things. Ukraine is obviously going to fight, so this war will last as long as Putin makes it last. That is my point and it's directly in line with everything stated here, but let me know when Ukraine invades Russia, because that would be awesome. Russian Nationalism being destroyed by the Neo Cossack. What a reversal of history that would make! Admittedly that's just a fever dream and I have no doubt if Russia is kicked out of Ukraine terms will be set. IF... That assumes Russia isn't content to control 15% of the country. That may have been the plan all along. Who can say? Putin isn't talking to CNN so we don't know. As much as I enjoy that old forum game. I've been around here for a very long time. I take your point though, all I was trying to do was post 'Wot I Think'. Y'all were free to ignore it. I whole-heartedly agree, which is why I'm not casting dispersions, blame, guessing at motives, propagandizing, describing anyone as hitler, or screaming to high heaven about support for one side or the other. I just want to know whats happening, why, and how things might turn out. I gave my best assessment according to the information I have received over the past few weeks, layered it atop an assessment of likely capability going forward into the future, and made my conclusion. This war will go on until Putin throws in the towel. Period. I say the best way to get there is to kick his dudes back across the border with their tails between their legs, and until that happens victory will be incomplete. There will be that lingering doubt on the other side about, "If we try it again it might work next time." The problem is the UKR dudes are going to have to do it themselves. I don't think there will be a no-fly zone established, I don't think NATO will get involved, and beyond sending money and weapons and few crazy redditors trying to join the foreign legion, Ukraine is in this by themselves. The real test is whether or not they can do it. They have the will to fight, but can they physically do it? I don't know. We'll see. Thanks for the conversation.
  14. Is that his plan B? It looks to me more like plan F. Then again, if they continue to reduce Mariupol the Crimean front and Donbas front will be merged. What happens after that is for the future to tell, but more likely there will be a push from the south towards the Kharkiv front. I don't know Steve, it seems to me he can throw in the towel any time he wants to. It's not like there's someone standing behind him with a pistol to his head forcing him to continue fighting, and if there actually is then we should all be VERY worried. Says the guy who apparently can't read either. So a ready supply of cruise missiles, artillery shells, and a capability for supply distribution that can be operated along the entire coastal region is not relevant to the ground war? Okay Steve, you got me there. It's irrelevant. Or maybe you're so used to sludge you don't notice it anymore. Then again you've been on THIS forum longer than any of us. I'm sure you could tell some horror stories over a few drinks. My definition of winning is 'The Complete Absence of the State of Losing'. Why do you 'hate to break it to me'? I hope you're right. But we'll see, won't we? Maybe after another week or two the glorious counterattack will be plain to see, and beyond all doubt. Okay. A hundred years from now I'm sure the historians will have fun picking this apart, but when Germany surrendered the largest part of their territory they controlled was in Austria. So yeah. They surrendered Austria and Norway and Denmark and Czechoslovakia. When the largest part of Ukraine Russia controls is none of it, they can feel free to surrender that too. Then we can stop dealing with the ongoing fallout of 2014, and the complete lack of political, social, and military response to a blatant invasion and annexation of foreign territory that happened live on camera in front of everyone. Personally I think future learned historians will call this, "The War That Didn't Have to Happen at All, Except Stupid People on Both Sides Made Stupid Decisions, and Now We Have to Deal With It." I am doing my best to read this thread but after taking three advil I think I'll give up. Let me know when that bunker thing happens though, when that nonexistent guy with a pistol pulls the trigger. But he doesn't exist though, so I don't think that's going to happen. Would make a cool movie though. 'From Russia with Love: Downfall Edition' Anyway, I've got a bursting headache, so if anyone wants to actually refute any of the bullet points I made in my first post feel free to PM me, I'd appreciate some extra info I apparently don't posses, and the Institute for the Study of War doesn't possess either.
  15. Oh I'm sorry, am I not allowed to say what I think? Geez, where do I think I am, a discussion forum or something? Like I said, I'm wading through the hundreds of pages of posts as fast as I can, but it's definitely not a shining beacon of knowledge and education.
  16. They did, until they gave up. As I was saying in my post. Do I have to go over this again?
  17. If they resort to such a thing then I will PM sburke and apologize. That would be literally the worst thing they could do.
  18. 1) I don't care what the original plan was, and you should know by now as literally everyone on this forum should know, no plan survives contact with the enemy. As I stated in my post, things will continue until Mr. Putin decides to stop them. 2) I never said Russia has uncontested control of UKR airspace, please read my post again, or just learn to read in general, thanks. 3) I specifically reference the fact the Russian Navy has not been aggressive. What they have NOT done though is turn around head back to home port. 4) I would like to see this evidence of defeat please. I'm sorting through the pages of this thread as fast as I can, but the reddit-tier cringe and literal tweet posting is ruining my vision and giving me a headache, especially having to once again observe videos and tweets of stuff that was disproven, mistaken, or redacted weeks ago. 5) Yes, Russia is still winning. Until they are actually forced to go BACKWARDS they will continue winning. Key word: BACKWARDS. I'll say it again: UNTIL THEY GO BACKWARDS. It's like you're desperately trying to both insinuate I'm saying something I'm not, and also make points that simply fly in the face of reality. The Russians have hundreds, or thousands of tanks and vehicles, hundreds of planes and helicopters, and thousands of troops in Ukraine. That is not what losing looks like. When Ukraine announces they've retaken Kherson, relieved Mariupol, or some other such thing, then I will be the first to say, "Yup, looks like they're winning." Until the Russian comes to the table, or announces his intention to talk, then he thinks he's winning. If he thinks he's winning, then he still has a plan. If he still has a plan, then he's not just going to roll over and die.
  19. So... The Russian advance has been stopped, Ukraine retains control of it's airspace, the Russian navy has been kicked out of the Black Sea, and both the USA and EU have announced a military intervention of some type, or are you just making a joke? Oh you're just making a joke. Ha ha.
  20. Did you not see the entire rest of my post, or are you just casting shade because you want to wag your finger at me?
  21. I do wonder what universe some people live in. They lost. Just have to remind you they lost. Okay? They lost. All right, let's move on. So it's been about a month since this thread was started, and I think we have an answer to the question posed in the title. This is as hot as it's going to get. Whether or not Russia takes the entire country, or whether they are content to partition it is up to them to decide (but personally I'm leaning towards partitioning as a means of keeping them out of NATO), but a few things are clear now the situation has developed: Ukraine cannot stop all of the Russian advances. They have had success with local counterattacks, and have stopped some advances temporarily, but Russian forces continue to advance in other areas. There have been 'operational pauses' but there have been no STOPS. The presence of western AT weapons and other lethal support extended to Ukraine by (he who shall not be named) (and others) has given them much more than the walkover they were expecting, but the Russian is tough and used to hardship, even those inflicted upon him by his own command structure. No supplies? No problem! Just steal food and gas from Ukrainian gas stations! People throwing molotov cocktails at you? No problem! Just tell them to go away or you will shoot them! The Russian is used to operating this way. Ukraine cannot control it's airspace. The Russians have taken losses, but they remain free to operate combat aircraft and helicopters over most of the country. Ukraine itself seems only capable of operating aircraft and helicopters in certain areas, and they cannot replace their losses without outside help. Very early in the invasion we heard reports of Ukrainian helicopters and aircraft attacking advancing Russian columns but those reports have died down, and the Russian wouldn't be parking a 40km long line of tanks, trucks, and other vehicles on the highway if there was any existing air threat. The Russian Navy has free access to the Black Sea, which means they can conduct fire support and amphibious operations anywhere they want to at any time. Ukraine has shown exactly zero capability to effect this outcome, although something makes me think there are still existing defenses in some areas., because the Russian has not operated as aggressively as I would think he could. The United States will do nothing but levy sanctions. The current leadership is incapable of doing anything else, an entire generation of people are now sick of foreign wars and interventions, and there will be no groundswell of support for intervention in Ukraine despite the froth mouthed rhetoric of people on twitter and reddit. The average American is more concerned about the crashing economy, inflation, the price of food and gas, and the fact we're currently stuck with a President and a Congress that doesn't seem capable of undoing the decisions that led to this outcome in the first place. I certainly am not running over to the recruitment center any more than I didn't for Afghanistan, or Iraq, or Syria, or Libya, etc. That's just me though, if you want to get your nuts up, and hop on a plane to Ukraine go right ahead. If you happen to meet a guy named Yuri Gavriluk tell him I said hi. Europe will do nothing more than levy sanctions. They rely too much on Russian oil and gas to make up shortfalls in their overall energy production, and they have long since allowed their defense spending to fall below the minimums set by NATO participation. They will need to increase funding, acquire new equipment, recruit and train new troops, and then maybe a couple years from now consider intervention. Despite the fact (he who shall not be named) tried to call them out years ago for their lack of defense spending, insisting they 'pay their fair share' Europe at large just didn't care. Now the situation will most likely end before the EU is in a position to do anything about it. It really comes down to, how long does Russia want to keep this up, when they do call a stop, and what are going to be their terms for a ceasefire? I'm only on page 12 right now but I doubt I'll see anything to refute any of this.
  22. I cannot speak to that except to say self-awareness is a rare trait in human beings.
  23. I once saw a documentary on RT about the use of video games to teach tactics and strategy to the military, but the games they showed were Blitzkrieg and Sudden Strike. If they had actually bought something like Combat Mission and given all their officers a copy...
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