Vanir Ausf B

More specifically Mi-29NM and Ka-52M. Fortunately, Russia probably only has a handful of these models available. The contracts were signed in 2021 and the first 10 Ka-52M were delivered in January of this year.

Russians are testing new type of kamikdze drones of long range, but much smaller than Shakheds. Yesterday two were launched on Kyiv oblast and one of them struck Vyshhorod town, also one explosion probably was in Irpin'. No significant damage, this is a sound of this small sh...t. 
Now again drone attack alarm in Kyiv oblast an reportedly again against Vyshhorod
Press-secreter of Air Defense Command told that they investigated fragments of these two drones of unknown type - they had engines, being ordered on AliExpress. 
 

Russians hit a house, where allegedly were deployed UKR troops with LMUR heavy helicopter missile.
LMUR can ve launched from Mi-28, Ka-52 and special versions of Mi-8 - Mi-8MNP-2 and Mi-8AMTSh-VN
Comparely with "Ataka" and "Vikhr' " ATGMs this missile has larger HE warhead (no info about HEAT version) - 25 kg and maximum range 14,5 km.
The missile has two modes of homing: "fire and forget", when operator marks the target and makes a launch and online guidance like UAV. In this latter mode it can be launched on maximal range. For this LMUR just launched toward the enemy, using inertial homing with GLONASS corrections if need, and then operator can choose any target, directing the misiile in desirable course. In this mode operator receives a picture from warhead and can control a flight like UAV.
 

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1715836719071686908

Rob Lee and Michael Kofman underline not to underestimate this.
North Korea has significant production capacity and latent production potential. And they are more than happy to exchange ammo for technology transfer and food.

47th mech.brigade "Magura" is moved to Avdiivka sector. Or at least one of their battalions on Bradleys. 
Ukrainian film director Oleh Sentsov, who is an officer in this brigade, has written a post in FB about their actions during repelling of Russian zreg-rush, where he was slightly wounded. Alas UKR attempt to recapture the tree-line was unsuccessful - they at the start completely lost one assault group, other two could seize enemy positions and held them some time, until other group was pished back with losses by arriving Russian reserves. Sentsov's group held own part of trenches, when they had seen six arriving tanks, with infantry, who sit on the top so dense like monkeys on the tree. Russian column didn't spotted them an passed along, so UKR soldiers shelled last tanks with small-arms and killed several Russian infantrymen. Further under pressure of Russian attacks, they received an order to withdraw. Two Bradleys covered their maneuver. Group of Sentsov had only one wounded from 13 men, second group had bigger losses, some soldiers counting as MIA, the third group was lost completely by KIA.
Some people in comments says to author of tweet Viacheslav Sikora, who reposted the screen of Sentsov's FB, that 47th brigade is on Zaporizhzhia front and he was wrong, saying this is about Avdiivka, but in comments one of soldiers of this brigade told he is in the same batatlion with Sentsov and they are now moved to Avdiivka
So, maybe this video of Bradley, firing at tree-line, occupied by Russians already filmed near Avdiivka, not near Vervbove as claimed in this tweet. Terrain is more similar to Avdiivka area
 

I can't remember if I posted this once before when CW first came out, but I have still a small pocket handbook that was issued to all FIST Chiefs in the 1/320FA back then. At the time I got this book I was a FIST Chief in A Btry, 1/320FA (Abn), later a Fire Direction Officer at battery and battalion level (in 2/321FA (Abn), and later still a Fire Support Officer (at both Bn and Bde level in 1st Bde). 
It's 5 separate pdfs. The first one has a lot of info on how a Soviet MRR would operate in the attack, which may help with tactics opposing them. It describes the recon element, the advanced battalion, with tactics and TOE. There is a nice table on how each element is organized and fights, along with (importantly!!) vulnerabilities. There is a lot of fire support information which will be more useful for background information, but does include a lot of specs of both US and Soviet equipment - rates of fire, shell weights, even airlift requirements to move a battery and supply it by air. In those tables DRF and DRB refer to the Division Ready Force, and Division Ready Battalion, referring to the artillery units associated with the infantry brigade that is on "Mission" cycle - the ones who are always ready to fly away at a moment's notice. One battery is direct support for an infantry Bn, one artillery Bn in direct support of an infantry brigade. Back then those direct support roles remained rigid, so that the same units batteries always supported the same infantry. For example as a FIST Chief, I supported C Co, 1-325 Inf (Abn). We trained with them in the field all the time, so we built a good working relationship. 
The TOE for US is specific to the 82d Airborne so you can't really apply it to a US mechanized unit. More men per squad, limited vehicles, etc. The 82d is kind of unique, and keep in mind that it's walking infantry, and the tactics for defense are described as the 82d being put in a position to oppose a mechanized Soviet advance, but in general terms, they still apply pretty well. 
Hope you find it useful. Feel free to download and save copies for yourself. This was freely given out, never classified in any manner, and we carried them around. 
They may help with tactics opposing Soviet advances, which in the AI scripting are pretty well based on how it's described here. Any fans of Flashpoint Campaigns (either Red Storm or Southern Storm) may also find them useful there - easier to see the larger scale Soviet organization unfold.
Enjoy.
Dave
Fire Support Handbook -5.pdfFire Support Handbook -4.pdfFire Support Handbook -3.pdfFire Support Handbook -2.pdfFire Support Handbook -1.pdf

For what it's worth, Abrams tanks are ready to roll.
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The U.S. has delivered all the previously pledged 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command's spokesperson Martin O'Donnell told the Voice of America.
The Ukrainian soldiers who trained on Abrams with U.S. troops in Germany have also returned to Ukraine, along with ammunition and spare tank parts, according to O'Donnell.
"We have lived up to our end of the bargain. From this point forward, it is up to them (Ukraine) to determine when and where they will deliver this capability,"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/voa-us-military-says-31-164251864.html

I don't think there is any chance the US will ever order more ATACMs now that it's replacement is nigh.
Supplying the longer ranged versions to Ukraine would be good but the Kerch Bridge is apparently off-limits for western-supplied munitions because of politics.

Perhaps. I have a growing suspicion that what Ukraine needs more than anything is what the West cannot give them: soldiers.

Perhaps. I have a growing suspicion that what Ukraine needs more than anything is what the West cannot give them: soldiers.

I don't think there is any chance the US will ever order more ATACMs now that it's replacement is nigh.
Supplying the longer ranged versions to Ukraine would be good but the Kerch Bridge is apparently off-limits for western-supplied munitions because of politics.

For what it's worth, Abrams tanks are ready to roll.
______
The U.S. has delivered all the previously pledged 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command's spokesperson Martin O'Donnell told the Voice of America.
The Ukrainian soldiers who trained on Abrams with U.S. troops in Germany have also returned to Ukraine, along with ammunition and spare tank parts, according to O'Donnell.
"We have lived up to our end of the bargain. From this point forward, it is up to them (Ukraine) to determine when and where they will deliver this capability,"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/voa-us-military-says-31-164251864.html

I mean... it's the Egyptian army that controls the border crossing.

I don't think there is any chance the US will ever order more ATACMs now that it's replacement is nigh.
Supplying the longer ranged versions to Ukraine would be good but the Kerch Bridge is apparently off-limits for western-supplied munitions because of politics.

I mean... it's the Egyptian army that controls the border crossing.

Random image from Israel, but 1.) MBT Cope is spreading and 2.) confirmation of vertical limits of Trophy engagement (could be less, of course, but can’t be more):

This guy is platoon commander of L119 in 46th air-assault brigade
https://twitter.com/denintern
I remember he complained about 105 mm shortage, but long time ago. His last posts havn't nothing about this

- Russia controls Bakhmut
- Russia got rid of its prison population, net societal gain. Nobody misses them and will march through the streets in protest.
- In return, UA had some of the better units exhausted, among them 93rd if Im correct and tens of thousands of some of the best people dead and many more wounded, crippled.
- Keeping supply line was very costly, watch drone footage of the road of life, its littered with UA vehicles that were taken out there, trying to evac and resupply the city with the frontline hundreds/sometimes just dozens of meters away. Loss rates were not nearly as in favor as in other areas, with street fighting leveling the playing field a lot.
 
Operationally, I dont think it matters but if you count it, small Russian win. Strategically -> politically, they won.
In a raw balance of what was used up, Russia also comes out ahead far better than in any other engagement in this war, with the exception of the current counter offensive.
_________________________________________________
The fact that the Russian army can throw away hordes of tanks and infantry and level the frontline with massed artillery, as if it was 2022 tells me that they do not suffer "shortages" as much as people would like them. Major use of airpower, both fixed wing and rotary, yet the only confirmed downed aircraft are friendly fire in a completely different place - funny but also tells a story about the state of UA frontline AD.
It seems to me that there are enough resources to hold the line in the south for a quite a while longer.

Dmitri is on it today.

AP is reporting the same:
The White House said on Friday that North Korea has delivered more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions to Russia for its ongoing war in Ukraine.
The White House released images that it said show the containers were loaded onto a Russian-flagged ship before being moved via train to southwestern Russia. The containers were shipped between Sept. 7 and Oct. 1 between Najin, North Korea, and Dunay, Russia
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-us-munitions-ukraine-war-7091eaba254b680888a9b1ec8a68135f

Russians moved to front even old experimental armor, which wasn't in service of Russian army. Near Avdiivka was spotted BTR-90 "Rostok". This is developing of 1994 year armed with 30 mm gun in the turret similar to BMP-2. Despite MoD adopted this APC in 2008, it was never ordered. Later in 2011 MoD finally rejected BTR-90 for the sake of developing of newest platform "Boomerang". Later BTR-82/82A was choosen as wheeled APC
Probably only several BTR-90 exists. 

 

Well yes and no.  The problem with green lighting deep/strategic strike is gauging what you want it to do.  If you want to harass or disrupt something specific, we could be talking a workable solution.
If we are talking broad scale strategic corrosive warfare, well that is essentially a systematic campaign at things like Russian industry, energy and transportation infrastructure.  Go down that road and I suspect things would spiral out of control quickly.  The working theory is that Putin only has so much support for this thing - we were just talking about this.  Start hammering every railyard, airfield, power generation and military factory in western Russia and he may very well get green lit for some really crazy responses.  In many ways it could play into his hands.
So from a US perspective it is risk vs gain.  What are a few longer range systems really going to do?  Ukraine would need a lot of systems to break Russia through strategic corrosion.  Not as much as say WW2, but still a lot higher than anyone is comfortable to go with right now.
So we are back to military operational victories in Ukraine strung together.  Closest we came to strategic disruption of Russia was back when Priggy made his thunder run.  But the poor dumb bastard fumbled to ball and balked, and we all know how that ended.

I can't understand why SBU issued this unverified info. Even though there were some attacks, they likely didn't reach own goals. No evidences that any ship was damaged. 
Here is today's "damaged" ship, after incident, passed as missile corvette "Buyan" - indeed patrol ship pr.22160 "Vasiliy Bykov"-class

And here is "blown by mine" two days ago patrol ship of the same pr.22160 "Pavel Derzhavin", reportedly yesterday photo. No damages are visible.

 

The key evidence will be whether the frontline starts to move in either direction.

The offensive isn't over so it's too early to judge. Having said that, the most fair bar to measure against is the one the Ukrainians are holding themselves to:
The general (Tarnavsky) conceded that for the counteroffensive to be a success, Ukrainian forces need to at least reach the city of Tokmak.
“Tokmak is the minimum goal,” he said. “The overall objective is to get to our state borders.”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/23/europe/ukraine-biggest-counteroffensive-to-come-intl-hnk/index.html