Vanir Ausf B

"This does not mean that such an assault is impossible. It simply means that it would require weapons on the battlefield we have yet to see. In my opinion, the only weapons that Russia has which could achieve this in this time frame would be a tactical nuclear weapon or some sort of chemical or biological attack".
Funny how a guy who specialises in chemical and biological weapons predicts an attack by chemical or biological weapons. When you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
I think he's either a Cold War fossil who is unable to realise that the world has changed since he was in the army in the 1980s, or maybe he's paid or instructed by someone to play scaremonger in order to put pressure on the Western public and politicians to provide more aid to Ukraine. Because his scenario seems to make no sense to me.
His piece seems to rest on the assumption that just because some ultra-nationalists in Moscow want a grand offensive, Putin somehow has to deliver that. But Putin doesn't need to take the whole of Ukraine to declare victory. He just has to keep what he has taken.
Also, Hamish de Bretton-Gordon seems to think that you could just use a couple of tactical nukes to "blow a hole" in the front line and then "exploit by mechanised formations". That's Cold War stuff and not how it works now in an age of ATGMs and drones everywhere. You don't just pop a small hole in the front and then race to Kyiv. Especially not now that Russia's mechanised formations have been ground down.
If Putin wanted to use nukes, he would have to nuke the entire front line, burning up most of the Ukrainian Army. And even then, those Russian columns would get mauled by Nato conventional airstrikes inside Ukraine within a couple of days. And then what?

That's going to make for some boring war games in the future.
But we'll always have CMCW.

That's going to make for some boring war games in the future.
But we'll always have CMCW.

That's going to make for some boring war games in the future.
But we'll always have CMCW.

That's going to make for some boring war games in the future.
But we'll always have CMCW.

That's going to make for some boring war games in the future.
But we'll always have CMCW.

That's going to make for some boring war games in the future.
But we'll always have CMCW.

POV: russian mobik riding on tanks through forest. Night is dark and full of DPCIM.
 

Everybody's walking in Ukraine
 
More stories of Russians using tear gas.
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/08/world/europe/ukraine-troops-exhausted-defensive.html

While I don't doubt that Russian conditions are appalling as described, I do want to point out that anything from Radio Free Europe(or Radio Free Asia, for that matter) should be taken with a grain of salt and independently corroborated. It's literally government media, CIA if I'm not mistaken.

The jet shaheds have arrived in Ukraine.

That would be so cool - take my upvote

Here a video with some tactic of drone ammo dropping usage, which only now was allowed to post. Skilled UKR operators, using race mode of FPVs bomb Russian positions and infantry with toss-bombing, when FPV is nor a kamikadze, but a bomber. This video is from summer
Next top-ace bombing example - 3-points drop from high altitute into opened hatch through "barbeque grid"
 
But Russians improve own drone technologies too. This is TG post of know UKR specialist of Russian captured drone and EW system researcher
First time I've seen on own eyes the video, intercepted from Russian FPV, equipped with machine vision and autolocking of target. More, it has thermal mode. It's still raw, but already tests on frontline.
My friends from Ministry of DIgitalization, let hurry up with our solutions
For those, who is not in the thread. The pilot reach the target and marked it from the top, further the drone makes everything itself. What is change:
1. EW cupolas now are useless
2. Experienced pilots are no needed
3. The losing of pictures near the land is no matter (range of fly will incrace in two times).
4. Moving target will hit more precisely.
I really worried about this. You understans role of FPVs in this war 
  

Updated statistic of spotted Russian strike drones usage in social media. For December this number increased to 759 (upper green bar). Source - LostArmor

 

Expenditure rates past and present.
 

https://www.berlingske.dk/politik/dansk-f-16-donation-bliver-flere-maaneder-forsinket-ukrainerne-er-ikke

Expenditure rates past and present.
 

Regarding the Spotting/Hiding Bonus that Anti-Tank guns get in the Setup Phase, could that be added to AFVs?

Instigating people in India or Morocco to attack shipping going into India or Morocco is going to severely piss off India or Morocco, and it would get shut down very quickly. These are not lawless failed states where that could function for long.
Ukraine has done this sort of thing on land in Africa, but AFAIK only in Sudan specifically. Sudan is in a state of civil war and Wagner has taken a side in that war, so the other side in that war has nothing to lose by letting Ukraine SOF operate on its territory. That dynamic doesn't translate to just anywhere else.

Instigating people in India or Morocco to attack shipping going into India or Morocco is going to severely piss off India or Morocco, and it would get shut down very quickly. These are not lawless failed states where that could function for long.
Ukraine has done this sort of thing on land in Africa, but AFAIK only in Sudan specifically. Sudan is in a state of civil war and Wagner has taken a side in that war, so the other side in that war has nothing to lose by letting Ukraine SOF operate on its territory. That dynamic doesn't translate to just anywhere else.

Instigating people in India or Morocco to attack shipping going into India or Morocco is going to severely piss off India or Morocco, and it would get shut down very quickly. These are not lawless failed states where that could function for long.
Ukraine has done this sort of thing on land in Africa, but AFAIK only in Sudan specifically. Sudan is in a state of civil war and Wagner has taken a side in that war, so the other side in that war has nothing to lose by letting Ukraine SOF operate on its territory. That dynamic doesn't translate to just anywhere else.

Instigating people in India or Morocco to attack shipping going into India or Morocco is going to severely piss off India or Morocco, and it would get shut down very quickly. These are not lawless failed states where that could function for long.
Ukraine has done this sort of thing on land in Africa, but AFAIK only in Sudan specifically. Sudan is in a state of civil war and Wagner has taken a side in that war, so the other side in that war has nothing to lose by letting Ukraine SOF operate on its territory. That dynamic doesn't translate to just anywhere else.

So, two things here:
1) we - the collective we - don't have any skin in this game. If we get it right; yay us. If we get it wrong; oh well, no harm, no foul.^ We can happily look back and say "see - we were right" while ignoring all the times we were wrong, and we also don't have to make meaningful decisions while peering forward into the murky future.
2) There have been a LOT of assertions and opinions and statements of 'fact' in this thread. I'm pretty sure if you went back and tallied them all up then the overall strike rate would look about as good as War On The Rocks. There definitely is a 'wisdom of the crowds' thing working in our favour here, but that masks a lot of outliers and outlandish stuff needed to get to that point.
 
To give a spectacular example: We said; "lol, silly Russians. Why are they bothering to dig in?"
 
^ Some individuals in this thread obviously do have a LOT of skin in this.

Politician (Green Party) criticises "very low number" of Leopard tanks in combat ready. (Article in German)
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-krieg-nur-sehr-geringe-zahl-leopard-panzer-wohl-noch-im-kampf-einsatz-a-4af130dd-6c94-48dc-a23d-9a388285407d
(excerpts translated with DeepL)
At the turn of the year, the defence budget expert wrote to the defence companies involved, Rheinmetall and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann: "Unfortunately, only a very small number of the battle tanks supplied can still be used by Ukraine." Repairs are taking a very long time because, according to the industry's repair workshop in Lithuania, there is a lack of suitable spare parts.
I guess this is the aftermath of the disagreement between Germany and Poland about the details for a maintenance facility? Lack of spare parts in Lithuania is weird, though. There are those things called "train" or "truck" that should be capable of transporting spare parts for a few tanks...
In addition, repair attempts by the Ukrainian army had led to further damage to the tanks. The extent to which this could be prevented through better training of mechanics or the provision of manuals, or whether repairs could be carried out in Ukraine, should be examined.
@Haiduk This would be the perfect occasion to complain about Ukraine being seen as a " tumba-yumba tribe". Obviously your engineers just haven't RTFM...

We have seen more than a few of these sorts of graphics.  All they really prove is that globalization is a thing.  The US sells electronics around the bloody world.  It is a primary supplier within defence industries.  Russia could be getting this stuff from any number of second or third party re-sellers who are outside of the agreed sanctions regime - remember Russian sanctions are not imposed by the UN, only by willing nations.  A lot of this could also be from stocks Russia had from before the war.  In the same vein, not everyone who uses an AK is being directly supported by Russia.
What is interesting is the trajectory of these sorts of graphics over time.  If Russia starts using more Chinese than US parts it could be a sign that their pre-war stocks are dwindling.