Vanir Ausf B

Tokmak probably isn't really closed for Russian logistics. If it were that simple it would have been done months ago, as you alluded to. One of the most pervasive myths in this war is that you can "close" a supply route with indirect fires. That's not how it works. Russian and Ukrainian forces are separated by only a few kilometers in most places yet those forces are resupplied. There is attrition, yes, but plenty gets through.

Update from Tatarigami_UA Russian military is expected to deploy at least a brigade-sized force with enhanced offensive capabilities in the near future. Russian forces made multiple unsuccessful attempts to reclaim positions south of Bakhmut, resulting in significant losses. Russians are currently facing challenges with their artillery barrels, but they are actively pursuing solutions to address them. Recent Ukrainian forces' attacks deep into russian territory have necessitated adjustments to russian logistical routes and methods, leading to added challenges. Russian command appears to maintain confidence in their ability to defend Tokmak and its surrounding areas. At the same time, it continues to struggle with communications and the supply of high-quality communication devices to its units. https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1709291611539087368

It's an anonymous source so caveat emptor, but the UK may be nearly tapped out on weapons for Ukraine, at least from UK stocks. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/02/britain-run-out-of-arms-send-to-ukraine-says-military-chief/

I could be wrong, but AFAIK the APM munition has not yet entered serial production. AMP also requires the SEPv3 data link. Could the Pentagon have upgraded the M1A1s to SEPv3 and shipped some pre-production AMP rounds to Ukraine for real-world testing? I wouldn't rule it out but it seems unlikely since the main rationale for sending the M1A1 was to get it into Ukraine as fast as possible.

It's Scott Ritter...

"Show me on the map where the Russians touched you."

This. The Canadian government says it has received no extradition request. The Polish official calling for extradition is known for bombastic public statements. It also seems unlikely he has any authority to extradite anyone given his job description: "In the fall of 2020, he was appointed minister of education and science, putting him in charge of pre-school, general, special and vocational education in the country. He also oversees the approval of textbooks and issues related to the employment of teachers." https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/yaroslav-hunka-poland-minister-extradite-1.6978266

While that would not shock me I'm guessing it's because there are a lot more DPICM warheads in inventory than unitary.

Poland to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine over grain row Weapons from other nations can still transit through Poland.

On June 2, 1952, in a 6–3 ruling, the Supreme Court declared in Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer that the President lacked the authority to seize the steel mills. Writing for a heavily-divided majority, Justice Hugo Black held that the President had no authority under the Constitution to seize private property on the grounds of national security. Since Congress had not otherwise authorized the president to seize the steel mills, the President could not do so. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_steel_strike Who wants to put odds on Congress authorizing Biden to nationalize SpaceX?

There was a Ukrainian military source quoted in an interview late last year (which I now cannot find) that said the Oryx numbers for tanks under count Russian loses by 50% and Ukrainian loses by 60%. What is more difficult to wrap my head around is the aircraft loss numbers. Ukraine claims 315 fixed wing kills and 316 helicopters. Oryx counts 89 and 105, respectively.

Fascinating insights into NATO training for Ukraine; what worked and what didn't. https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1699193558685618235

We may know what happened to the destroyed Challenger 2: "Challenger 2 in Ukraine hit a mine - which immobilized it. Mine explosion caused a fire in rear fuel tank - at which point crew evacuated. Immobilized empty Challenger2 was then targeted by Lancet drone - all according to western Def source" https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/1699144029324075518

I think the issue is that the supply is constrained. The UK seems to retain small stockpiles of most munitions and IIRC has not procured 120mm HESH rounds since the 2000s. The are no NATO allies to fall back on either.

Thanks. That confirms my suspicion. The L31A7 HESH round has been out of production for years, AFAIK.

Very interesting. On paper the Challenger 2s main cannon should have anti-armor performance similar to Leopard 2a6 (both are 120L55), which makes me wonder if this dedicated anti-armor role is mostly because the Challenger 2s anti-personnel rounds are HESH rather than HE.

Pentagon acquisition chief Bill LaPlante tells a defense industry conference that "I think a protracted conflict scenario...[is] not one that we have fully fleshed out the way we probably should have in terms of our budget planning." https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1696250321553473585

Meshes with a (paywalled) FT article noting the language barrier is a significant issue: _____________ Teaching inexperienced soldiers how to operate a tank on the front line in just six weeks was never going to be easy. But when German, Dutch and Danish officers gathered in a lush green patch of the North German countryside to train Ukrainian men, they were not expecting a shortage of competent interpreters to be the top issue. “Interpreters are challenge number one,” said Martin Bonn, a Dutch brigadier general who is deputy head of the multinational EU training mission launched last November to educate Ukrainians on a range of weapons and tactics. Kyiv and western capitals are providing translators, who often struggle with the necessary vocabulary. “The big challenge is the translation of words used in a military or technical context . . . Words no one uses in everyday life,” European trainers were full of praise for the “tremendous motivation” of the recruits, despite the stress of the brutal war they are fighting and the daily dangers to friends and family back home. But they also said that the age and ability of the soldiers they are sent varies wildly, as Ukrainian commanders on the front line are often unwilling to spare their best men. One volunteer who turned up in Germany was 71 years old. https://www.ft.com/content/5bcb359e-f0ae-475d-9773-b89c0ebe0a1b

None of them hit on the first shot but I did not actually count Group 1s shots to first hit, to be honest. The point of the test was a quick sanity check, not an in-depth statistical analysis.

I put 3 pair of Pz IVs 1250m across from 3 isolated IS-2s, let one of each pair of Pz IVs (call them Group 1) fire for two turns (9 shots each) to ensure every subsequent shot was a hit, then let the other Pz IVs (Group 2) start shooting. The number of shots taken by Group 2 tanks to achieve the first hit was 2,4 and 3 respectively.

The Vilnius summit showed there will need to be a dramatic shift in Western perspective for a wartime NATO entry to be seriously considered.

"Eventually" being the operative word. Of course there is no reason Ukraine can't operate more than one type of fighter. They do that already. But transitioning to two different types simultaneously seems like a bad idea unless it cannot be avoided, e.g. there are too few fighters of each type available. For what it's worth, I came across an article from June in which Sweden called Ukrainian pilot training an "operational evaluation": "The armed forces are tasked with orientation training for Ukrainian pilots and associated aeronautical personnel on the JAS-39 [Gripen]," a machine translation of the release says. "The Ukrainian armed forces have expressed requests to be able to operationally evaluate the JAS-39 as one of the most urgent measures is to strengthen the Ukrainian air defense with a modern combat aircraft system." https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-will-get-training-on-swedens-jas-39-gripen

More power to them if they can make it happen but I see only 8 pilots in the first F-16 cadre and wonder how many more are available.

The Czech Gripens are leased (as are the Hungarian) and the UK only has one of them, so it's probably Sweden or nothing. I suspect Haiduk is correct that this is Plan B in case Plan A (F-16s) doesn't happen. I don't think we will see both F-16s and Gripens in Ukraine.

The Drive has a nice article on why F-16s should be viewed as a long-term investment rather than a short term solution. _____ “They're young pilots that barely have any hours at all. So they're not currently fighting the war,” he said. The Ukrainian pilots are currently undergoing language training in the U.K. “And then they're going to get a little bit more training on propellers, and then go down to France and fly in the [Dornier Alpha Jets] for a little bit, that all is going to take time,” said Hecker. “And that's probably not going to happen before the end of the year. So that takes a while to make that happen. So that's why it's going to be at least until next year until you see F-16s in Ukraine.” https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-f-16-combat-proficiency-at-scale-not-likely-before-2027-air-force-general-says Also, a thoughtful thread from Justin Bonk regarding western contractors.