Vanir Ausf B
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Posts
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Posts posted by Vanir Ausf B
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1 hour ago, Tux said:
Wow. This is a much larger deficit than I had assumed. I can’t imagine that the US and European countries don’t already have a plan underway to reverse the above ratio over the next year or so, though.
There is. Kinda. The US has a goal for 1.2 million in 2025 and Rheinmetall claims it will be able to produce 600,000 in 2025. But 2024 may be a lean year for Ukraine. And for Russia, actually, since even with North Korean help they will not be able to sustain their 10 million/year usage rate.
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Current US production is around 350,000. Russian production is estimated to be near 2 million
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8 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Russians hit a house, where allegedly were deployed UKR troops with LMUR heavy helicopter missile.
LMUR can ve launched from Mi-28, Ka-52
More specifically Mi-29NM and Ka-52M. Fortunately, Russia probably only has a handful of these models available. The contracts were signed in 2021 and the first 10 Ka-52M were delivered in January of this year.
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14 minutes ago, dan/california said:
They needed two hundred not thirty.
Perhaps. I have a growing suspicion that what Ukraine needs more than anything is what the West cannot give them: soldiers.
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For what it's worth, Abrams tanks are ready to roll.
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The U.S. has delivered all the previously pledged 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command's spokesperson Martin O'Donnell told the Voice of America.
The Ukrainian soldiers who trained on Abrams with U.S. troops in Germany have also returned to Ukraine, along with ammunition and spare tank parts, according to O'Donnell.
"We have lived up to our end of the bargain. From this point forward, it is up to them (Ukraine) to determine when and where they will deliver this capability,"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/voa-us-military-says-31-164251864.html
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15 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Why anybody is bothering to talk to the Egyptians themselves is a mystery to me.
I mean... it's the Egyptian army that controls the border crossing.
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13 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Now give them the ones that will put the Kerch bridge in the water!
Edit: And put out the production contracts so that the Russians know the Ukrainians can keep shooting them FOREVER.
I don't think there is any chance the US will ever order more ATACMs now that it's replacement is nigh.
Supplying the longer ranged versions to Ukraine would be good but the Kerch Bridge is apparently off-limits for western-supplied munitions because of politics.
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5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
AP article (via The Hill) with some details about ATACMS getting to Ukraine. Apparently they were delivered a few days ago:
Steve
Interesting. According to this report Ukraine has the M39A version. If true that means most of Crimea is out of range.
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2 minutes ago, dan/california said:
So the Palestinian cause and people are everything, unless WE have to do something....
More or less.
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“We are making sure that aid, whether medical or humanitarian, at this difficult time, makes it to the strip,” Sisi said, adding that “we sympathize.”
But he warned that Egypt’s ability to help has limits.
“Of course we sympathize. But be careful, while we sympathize, we must always be using our minds in order to reach peace and safety in a manner that doesn’t cost us much,” he said, adding that Egypt hosts 9 million migrants already. The largest groups in the country’s migrant population are from Sudan, Syria, Yemen and Libya, according to a 2022 report by the UN’s International Organization for Migration.
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Jordanian King Abdullah II:
“This is a situation that has to be handled within Gaza and the West Bank,” he said in a meeting with the German chancellor, The Associated Press reported. “And you don’t have to carry this out on the shoulders of others.”
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Egypt’s message to western diplomats has been clear: it will deliver aid into Gaza but will resist any push for it to accept large numbers of Palestinians. Sameh Shoukry, Egypt’s foreign minister, on Monday warned that “forced displacement” was no solution to the Palestinian crisis.
In more stark language, a senior Egyptian official told a European counterpart: “You want us to take 1mn people? Well, I am going to send them to Europe. You care about human rights so much — well you take them.”
“The Egyptians are really, really angry” at the pressure on them to take refugees, the European official said, recalling the conversation.
https://www.ft.com/content/feab5a29-a10a-4d6c-9035-ece2546c12a3
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6 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Dynamic of daily artillery shots. It's claimed now in first time Ukraine makes more daily shots than Russia. The source is unknown
Have you heard anything about UKR 105mm ammunition supply? It seems to be running low. At least the 80th Air Assault Brigade is running low.
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“Miron”, an artillery commander stationed near Bakhmut, told The Telegraph: “The British L119 is a nice gun, very comfortable to work with and accurate to fire. But we don’t have enough shells for it – last week, we fired only five shells all week.
“It is catastrophically limited. When we are in battle, we are having to weigh up very carefully whether we should use a shell or not.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/british-howitzers-fall-silent-ukraine-103240001.html
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5 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:
Us intelligence: Russia received it's first shipment of North-Korean weapons. (1000 containers)
Link is Dutch, but original US Twitterpost is in English.
AP is reporting the same:
The White House said on Friday that North Korea has delivered more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions to Russia for its ongoing war in Ukraine.
The White House released images that it said show the containers were loaded onto a Russian-flagged ship before being moved via train to southwestern Russia. The containers were shipped between Sept. 7 and Oct. 1 between Najin, North Korea, and Dunay, Russia
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2 hours ago, dan/california said:
I simply don't see how the Northern front doesn't kick off. My prediction is that the IDF is about assault Gaza like its hair is on fire, so that the mechanized forces currently deploying there can shift North ASAP.
To be fair, this is nothing new. Israel has been committing "acts of war" against Syria for years now. From the linked article:
Israel has for years carried out strikes against what it has described as Iran-linked targets in Syria, including against the Aleppo and Damascus airports.
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2 hours ago, dan/california said:
The question is do they have a choice?
Probably, at least with regards to the physical aspect. The border with Gaza is just under 8 miles long.
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On 10/9/2023 at 12:50 PM, Vanir Ausf B said:
Range is a problem. Most loitering munitions have maybe 30-40 minutes of endurance tops, so most of your loiter time is spent traveling to the target area. If nothing's there you just crash. Also, EW becomes more of a problem the further you fly.
On the other hand, technology marches forward.
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1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:
Yes, it would surprise me. But because of the paywall I can't read the details of who says that.
It's all pretty vague, as you would expect.
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These key Iranian officials did not know the attack was coming, according to the intelligence. The United States, Israel and key regional allies have not found evidence that Iran directly helped plan the attack, according to the U.S. officials and another official in the Middle East.
While they would not identify the Iranian officials who expressed surprise at the attack, the U.S. officials said they were people who typically would be aware of operations involving the Quds Force, Iran's paramilitary arm that supports and works with proxy forces.
U.S. officials said the intelligence investigation was continuing and could turn up evidence that Iran or other states were directly involved in the Hamas operation. Senior officials said they were keeping an open mind, reviewing old intelligence reports and looking for new information.
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29 minutes ago, Lethaface said:
So, did the offensive fail? That depends where you hold the bar. If you hold it at our unrealistic expectations, then yes it failed. However accounting for the reality on the ground I'm not sure it failed.
The offensive isn't over so it's too early to judge. Having said that, the most fair bar to measure against is the one the Ukrainians are holding themselves to:
The general (Tarnavsky) conceded that for the counteroffensive to be a success, Ukrainian forces need to at least reach the city of Tokmak.
“Tokmak is the minimum goal,” he said. “The overall objective is to get to our state borders.”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/23/europe/ukraine-biggest-counteroffensive-to-come-intl-hnk/index.html
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5 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Yet, a very big yet on that one. Trains are almost as easy to ID as helicopters, and a lot easier to hit. The more I think about this the more I think Ukraine should do it soonest.
I could see Ukraine (or Russia for that matter) deploying something like that if they can overcome the technical hurdles. I absolutely do not see the US or anyone else handing over an AI-driven autonomous weapon of any type.
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6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:
You mean “most battery-powered loitering munitions”. Range increases dramatically if you do three things:
- Fixed wing (ie not a quadcopter)
- No transmitter that is sending video
- Use a little gasoline engine
Not if you are autonomous and don’t rely on GPS/etc. EW is going to drive autonomy as much as anything.
Switchblade 600 is fixed wing and has 40 minutes of endurance. To reach maximum range it also requires two operators to relay the signal.
Autonomous drones do exist and can be very long range but they are used against static targets. To the best of my knowledge autonomous drones with search and destroy capability are still in testing. I am not aware of any used in Ukraine.
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7 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:
Rail should be trivial to hit with loitering munitions.
Range is a problem. Most loitering munitions have maybe 30-40 minutes of endurance tops, so most of your loiter time is spent traveling to the target area. If nothing's there you just crash. Also, EW becomes more of a problem the further you fly.
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1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:
What am I missing other than 'well shucks, they didn't do it, so there must be some reason'? Like what?
Rail lines are easily and quickly repaired. It's an inefficient use of finite resources to hit an empty line just to put it out of order for a few hours.
The stuff traveling on those rail lines absolutely should be hit as often as possible, but we're talking about targets that are not static and are tens of kilometers behind enemy lines. ISR is spotty at best at those distances.
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A good rundown on changes the US Army is making because of lessons learned in Ukraine.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/change-plans-us-army-embraces-110000928.html
- Upgraded artillery. Willing to buy from outside the US.
- A lighter Abrams tank with a smaller logistical footprint. Top attack protection must be increased.
- Tactical operations centers must get smaller, both in size and in electromagnetic signature.
- Remote logistics (tech support, really).
- Lots of SHORAD
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Major General Viktor Khorenko does not know the reasons for his dismissal from the post of Commander of the Special Operations Forces.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, did not submit a request for his dismissal.
"I personally do not know the reason. I will tell you this, I learned about it from the media. I talked to the Commander-in-Chief (Valerii Zaluzhnyi), who also could not explain this to me.
The commander-in-chief is supposed to make the request for this, but he told me that he had not done so. I don't understand what has happened."
Khorenko noted that Zaluzhnyi called him today and asked if he was aware of the situation. The major general replied in the negative.
Khorenko says he does not know anything about his further fate in the military. He only said that "he will do everything he can for the victory of Ukraine".
When asked whether Khorenko tried to contact the President's Office to clarify the situation, the officer stated that he did not have such access.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/former-special-operations-forces-commander-182834018.html