Vanir Ausf B

I don't make much of it but I do wonder what he's referring to. ________ Ukrainian soldiers have received training in the U.S. since January on how to use the Patriot system, but it hasn’t yet been deployed in Ukraine. Ukraine needs 20 Patriot batteries to protect against Russian missiles, and even that may not be enough “as no country in the world was attacked with so many ballistic rockets,” Zelenskyy said. Zelenskyy added that a European nation sent another air defense system to Ukraine, but it didn’t work and they “had to change it again and again.” He did not name the country. ________ https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-zelenskyy-russia-putin-war-78f55fbf4fb7e57711c2fadaf914fd45

Great stuff as always from RUSI. _______ One of the foremost causes of inaccuracy in pre-war military assessments of the likely trajectory of the fighting – both in NATO countries and in the Ukrainian military – stems from the assumption that the Russian forces would conduct a deliberate military offensive. For example, it was assumed that rail and logistics infrastructure would be targeted. Instead, because the aim was to fix and isolate Ukrainian units, there was very little attempt to destroy them in the first three days. The whole logic of the employment of forces was premised on the success of Russia’s unconventional operations and yet, as already discussed, the preconditions for that success in terms of the political destabilization of Ukraine had not yet been achieved. There remains an unanswered question as to why the Russian leadership decided to begin the invasion without establishing the required preconditions. This may be understood as a strategic error of judgement by Putin personally. The bulk of Russia’s planning focused on what to do after the invasion. ____________

Full text from the "guy on Twitter". _________ I'll start by praising our military engineers who created the BMP-3. God bless you all! Great car, I can't imagine what could be better. Now about the UR-77. An absolutely useless machine for the declared demining actions. Imagine a typical for the Donbass field between "zelenki". As a rule, it is 500-700 meters, or even more. "Serpent Gorynych" makes a passage 6 meters wide, up to 100 meters deep. As planned by the designers, he should reach the enemy at a distance of 300-200 meters and start all these manipulations? How do you imagine it? Can you imagine the battlefield at all and what is happening there? It is clear that there are few suicides among the military, so they decided to throw the UR-77 remotely. You unhook the hoses with explosives from the ropes and shoot ... Well, firstly, the machine is not designed for such things, so accuracy, to put it mildly, suffers. Secondly, this thing often simply does not explode or only one sleeve explodes. Why so, I don't know. I'm just telling you what I saw on different sectors of the front. Yes, of course, if all these sleeves with plastite arrive at the enemy opornik, then his personnel will fly into space, but I repeat, the UR-77 was not created for these purposes. I read that in Syria, "Gorynych" successfully dismantled some street barricades. Perhaps that's the whole point of this machine. MOST of our destroyed equipment from Avdiivka to Zaporozhye is the result of mine explosions. If the Russian Army had an effective demining tool, then the battles were already going on at least near Dnepropetrovsk. Many schizophrenics and people simply far from the earth are looking for some backstage games and conspiracies in the events at the front, but the reasons for the failures are so simple that many refuse to believe in them. For example, the fact that the Russian Army does not have effective means of mine clearance. In justification, I can say that there are no such funds either in the Armed Forces of Ukraine or in NATO. We just have to spare no mines and NATO will not go anywhere, if anything ...

Interesting article on Ukraine's UAV program. _________ Mykhailo Fedorov, the 32-year-old deputy prime minister responsible for both Ukraine’s drone programme and its digital transformation, says the turning-point may be coming faster than people think. A number of changes are about to make a big impact, he says. The army has completed a big restructuring, establishing 60 new attack-drone squadrons, at least one in every brigade, with separate staff and commanders. This is the first reform of its kind anywhere in the world. Ukraine’s military doctrine has been updated to include (classified) guidelines on drone use. The defence ministry has created a new board to co-ordinate the work of drone producers. There has been a drive to deregulate: removing import and certification barriers. And this month is marked by the launch of a new military “cluster” venture designed to link Ukrainian military tech with international companies and capital. A defence-industry insider, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirms that the army is due to gain “significant and high-tech capacity” in the coming weeks and months. That said, it will still struggle against the Russians, he cautions. Only a few military systems can perform well. “The Russians are very, very good at what they do,” the industry source says. “They are performing black magic in electromagnetic defence. They can jam frequencies, spoof GPS, send a drone to the wrong altitude so that it simply drops out of the sky.” The threat from ground-based air defences means that Ukrainian reconnaissance drones struggle to see more than 15km behind Russian lines, says one expert with recent experience of observing drone operations. At an early stage the Ukrainians appeared to pin hopes for controlling drones behind Russian lines on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites, which work at frequencies and in numbers that Russian systems struggle to jam. A naval-drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea fleet in October reportedly made good use of this gap. But Mr Musk, apparently worried about the escalatory effect of such moves, has stepped in where Russian technology proved unable to. Starlink now uses geofencing to block the use of its terminals—not only above Russian-occupied territory inside Ukraine, but also, according to a Ukrainian military intelligence source, over water and when the receiver is moving at speeds above 100km per hour. “You put it on a boat at sea and it will simply stop working,” he says. So Ukraine’s drone developers now use a range of other, more expensive communication systems, with multiple systems often on the same vehicle. The success of the attack on February 28th in getting so close to Moscow suggests that Ukraine may be getting close to a solution that works. _________ https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/20/ukraine-is-betting-on-drones-to-strike-deep-into-russia

Something I haven't seen before. UR-77 used for indirect fire rather than it's usual mine-clearing role.

For a while now.

I give little credence to crystal balls, but for what it's worth... _________ The chief of Lithuania's military intelligence said Russia has enough resources to continue the war in Ukraine for two more years at the current intensity. "The resources which Russia has at the moment would be enough to continue the war at the present intensity for two years", Lithuania's intelligence chief Elegijus Paulavicius told reporters. Russia uses "long chains of intermediaries" to procure sanctioned Western technologies, and its army is being adapted for long-term confrontation with the West and will prioritize efforts to rebuild its military presence in the Baltic Sea region, where it will remain "a threat and a source of instability". ___________ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-can-fight-ukraine-two-more-years-current-intensity-lithuania-says-2023-03-09/

Dunno, but China is taking notes. _________ China needs the capability to shoot down low-earth-orbit Starlink satellites and defend tanks and helicopters against shoulder-fired Javelin missiles, according to Chinese military researchers who are studying Russia's struggles in Ukraine in planning for possible conflict with U.S.-led forces in Asia. The conflict has also forged an apparent consensus among Chinese researchers that drone warfare merits greater investment. China has been testing drones in the skies around Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that Beijing has vowed to bring under its control. "These unmanned aerial vehicles will serve as the 'door kicker' of future wars," noted one article in a tank warfare journal published by state-owned arms manufacturer NORINCO, a supplier to the PLA, that described drones' ability to neutralise enemy defences. _________ https://www.yahoo.com/news/studying-ukraine-war-chinas-military-021042076.html

Good write-up in the NYT on the regulatory and physical challenges the EU is dealing with on ammunition production. __________ And NATO could ease certification regulations on the use of certain shells for certain guns. For example, he said, it is against German law to fire uncertified shells from German howitzers. These regulations are designed for safety, but they can also benefit manufacturers that produce shells to sell for guns they also make, similar to printer cartridges for particular printers. Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary general for defense investment, said that NATO estimated that 80 percent of 155-millimeter shells could be fired from any Western gun, despite restrictive certifications. Ramping up production by 50 percent would be easy, he said, with more worker shifts, even if there are sometimes supply problems for key ingredients. But to increase production by 300 percent would require huge investments for new plants. __________ (possibly paywalled): https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/europe/ukraine-eu-shells-ammunition.html

Kofman was far more pessimistic at the time about Russia's prospects than you are remembering.

Good list. I've been following Kofman and Lee for years. They're both fantastic. The only "problem" I see with them is that, as you noted, they almost never disagree with each other on anything substantive.

Impossible.

I have no idea about Shock Force, but in Black Sea all Russian tanks use 3BM60 Svinets-2, and IIRC all Ukrainian tanks use 3BM42 Mango.

Scrounging for tanks in Europe __________ “The trend across the board in European armies has been cutting, cutting, cutting,” said Christian Mölling, a defense expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “But at the end of the day, many were on the same track as Germany: War is a theoretical thing. So we have theoretical tanks.” Ulrike Franke, a defense analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the struggle to find tank numbers raises questions as to where else European militaries face similar shortages and maintenance problems. “Is it just bad luck that Spain has an issue with their Leopard tanks, but everything else works?” she said. “Or do they have the same issues elsewhere?” “Does 10% of their equipment not work, or is it 50%?” Franke asked. “It would be a good idea for Europeans to look at this more closely.” __________ https://www.yahoo.com/news/scrounging-tanks-ukraine-europes-armies-193032025.html

About 20 new tanks per month, maybe a little more.

KMW still has the floor space for 16 but is currently building 2 new Leopard 2s per month with the capacity for 3. Beyond that would require a significant expansion of supply chains and work force that would probably take some time to complete.

Depends on how you count. As of 2021 Germany only had 107 operational Leopard 2s.

There is street fighting in some areas, but Ukrainian forces still hold the city - despite sub-zero temperatures and dwindling ammunition. "We have some shortages of ammunition of all kinds, especially artillery rounds," says Capt Mykhailo from the 93rd Mechanised Brigade, whose call sign is 'Polyglot'. "We also need encrypted communication devices from our Western allies, and some armoured personnel carriers to move troops around. But we still manage. One of the main lessons of this war is how to fight with limited resources." We get an insight into the ammunition problems as Ukrainian troops target a Russian position with 60mm mortars. The first mortar round flies from the tube with a loud bang. The second round doesn't eject. There's a hiss of smoke and a shout of "misfire" sending the mortar unit scrambling for cover. Troops tell us the ammunition is old stock, sent from abroad. Moscow now has effective control of both main roads into the city, leaving just one back route left - a slender supply line. "They have been trying to take the city since July," says Iryna, press officer of the 93rd Brigade. "Little by little they are winning now. They have more resources, so if they play the long game they will win. I can't say how long it will take. "Maybe they will run out of resources. I really hope so." ___________ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64596363

But it does appear to be a real concern. __________ NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Monday that Ukraine is using up ammunition far faster than its allies can provide it and putting pressure on Western defense industries, just as Russia ramps up its military offensive. “The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg said. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defense industries under strain.” According to some estimates, Ukraine is firing up to 6,000-7,000 artillery shells each day, around a third of the daily amount that Russia is using almost one year into the war. Speaking on the eve of a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers, Stoltenberg said the waiting time for the supply of “large-caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months,” and that “orders placed today would only be delivered two-and-a-half years later.” __________ https://www.yahoo.com/news/nato-chief-says-ukraines-ammunition-160804274.html

Not sure if this was posted before, but Ukraine needs more ammo: “What is of ultimate urgency is . . . the ammunition and the artillery that we need immediately to make sure that we can operate with the new military equipment we received,” Stefanishyna said in an interview with the Financial Times. “We do not have this amount of ammunition that we need.” Ukraine is estimated to be firing more than 5,000 artillery rounds every day — equal to a smaller European country’s orders in an entire year in peacetime. https://www.ft.com/content/817b7e61-9f09-494c-8f96-934810033b62 Also...

That makes a little more sense, but it's still pretty crazy. Where are they going to get the ammunition for all those launchers? They appear to have ordered enough for one salvo . Domestic production under license?

Hmm. Reuters says the number of HIMARS launchers in the Poland deal is actually 18, a far more believable number. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-approves-sale-up-10-bln-sale-himars-rocket-launchers-ammunition-poland-2023-02-07/