Pete Wenman

Eliot Higgins Retweeted Ukrainians advance 16-20 kilometers in 'tactically significant' move. Ukraine made a "tactically significant" advance along two lines of attack towards the southern coast, according to the Russian and Ukrainian sources.  
 

Eliot Higgins Retweeted Ukrainians advance 16-20 kilometers in 'tactically significant' move. Ukraine made a "tactically significant" advance along two lines of attack towards the southern coast, according to the Russian and Ukrainian sources.  
 

Ben Mayne - @BattlefieldBen on Twitter is posting a whole series of tweets covering the actions on Operation Charwood, with annotated GE maps/photos and film clips from the IWM
https://twitter.com/hashtag/OpCharnwood?src=hashtag_click
Well worth checking out if you are on the mess that is currently twitter
 
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RT blank map 5696m x 5696m
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Rad1.btt

RT blank map 5696m x 5696m
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Rad1.btt

Excuse the language - but this is funny and perhaps surprisingly accurate
 
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Excuse the language - but this is funny and perhaps surprisingly accurate
 
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Excuse the language - but this is funny and perhaps surprisingly accurate
 
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Yes, I am late.
20:01
https://t.me/olen_nn/6939
Rumors: All Voronezh food shops are closed as no food coming due to closure of M4 highway.
20:06
https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/1391
RU claim AFU gained foothold at Antronovsk bridge
20:10
https://t.me/rybar/48969
Rybar quoting press service pf Belarusian President
In agreement with the President of Russia, [Luka] held talks with the head of the Wagner PMCs, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The negotiations lasted throughout the day. As a result, they came to an agreement on the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloody massacre on the territory of Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed persons of the Wagner company on the territory of Russia and further steps to de-escalate tension.
https://t.me/rybar/48971
Rybar
Most likely, the main goal — the resignation of the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation — was achieved.
In exchange for this, Prigozhin will probably either disband the PMCs, or transfer them to the units of the Russian Defense Ministry, resigning as [Wagnerite] head.
Considering that in the last week the PMC have been actively looking for foreign translators of Arabic and French, the option of returning part of the PMCs to Africa and the Middle East is quite realistic.
https://t.me/rybar/48972
Evgeny Prigozhin has published an official audio message. He said that the columns stopped 200 kilometers from Moscow. According to him, "the moment has come when blood can be shed."
Realizing the full responsibility of the moment when "blood can be shed", PMCs tuern round columns and return to field camps according to the plan.
Not a word about the result of the agreements with Lukashenka. About the concessions that should follow — too.
Once again: everything is according to plan.
The fairy tale is over.
RU Nats are totaly confused
20:25
https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1303
Prig - They wanted to disband Wagnerites and we went to march to Moscow. We came as close as 200 km from Moscow. We did not shed any blood of our troops. Now blood can be shed. I fully understand that EU blood can be shed, we turn columns around and returning back to our camps
Looks like this is the end

Exaggerated. They are present but do not control much. Too few of them yet.

Dmitiry already translated Prig comments about real situation. Here is confirmation that situation for RU is very difficult - from "agent" Thirteen (infamous RU soldier in Kherson-Zaporozhye area)
[EDIT] For those who do not want to spend time listening to Prig here are main points:
Pyatikhatka is under AFU control [is not new for us] The northern section of Robotne is under AFU control [is new for us] Urozhaine is under AFU control [is not new for us] Prig concludes that the UKR controls huge areas of land AFU unit (50-10) is located near Tormak in the Sadove village [is new for us] RU MOD has no control over anything [is not new for us] Total shortage of weaponry and ammunition (including anti-tank weapons) [is not new for us] AFU advances [implying successfully] toward Molochny Lyman [village on the Azov seashore south of Melitopol - if AFU reaches it, the RU grouping will be split in half]. [is new for us] AFU begins crossing the Dniepr - there were recon parties at Hola Prystan [a town south-west of Kherson] and now the main troops begin to arrive [is new for us] RU suffers casualties but no reinforcement [is not new for us] RU units are understaffed by 50-60% [is not new for us] Everything up there has been hidden from everybody. The Russian military command is fooling Putin and the Russian people [is not new for us] Disparaging Shoigy and the RU MOD,  concludes the Russian army is being destroyed [is not new for us] The UKR counter-offensive causes significant losses for RU, which is not being acknowledged [is not new for us] Bla-Bla-Bla [is not new for us]

Bénouville et Ranville Master Map is now finished. Size: 3248 m x 2128 m. Condition: Pristine, no German or British fortifications or modifications. Fully populated with flavor objecsts. Looks best when used with all available building, wall, flavor object, foliage and terrain tile mods. German fortifications and terrain modifications will be included in subsequent scenarios. Map will be posted without deployment zones or opposing forces so that it can be used for your own Quick Battles.

UKR Mashovets post 17 June

second post
Discussion: It appears that the UKR tactic is to make a shallow push (creating a major threat), attract RU reserves, smash them with arty, make another shallow push widening the problematic spot, attract more RU reserves, smash them with arty, rinse and repeat until RU defenses start crumbling somewhere.
In other words, RU expected that UKR would attempt rapid deep penetration and, as a result, would be forced to fight on RU terms - deep within the RU defensive belt outside of the arty and AA umbrellas against undamaged RU reserves and RU aviation. Essentially, RU was prepared to counter the Kharkiv scenario. However, these vile untermesh khokhols thwarted RU plans by conducting shallow penetrations with minor troops to fight RU reserves under UKR terms - under arty and AA cover. Best example of the Enemy gets a vote.
The best part is, I don't think RU is aware of what's going on. I looked at the mood of the RU Nats, and it is the same:

Let's talk about Maryinka and that video from 79th Brigade
I prepared a draft transcript of the first ten minutes, which covered one battle. But, in order for you to understand what is going on, I created a map and a brief summary. Obviously, despite my best efforts, I could easily misunderstand something.

UKR appears to have discovered an enemy force moving from Donetsk via road using a drone equipped with infrared imaging. There were four vehicles: one or two tanks and two or three BMPs. It's unknown where the infantry force came from; they might have dismounted from the BMPs. It appears to be an Assault group, which is usually approximately squad size, but this varies. It may begin with a strengthened squad of up to 15 soldiers, but by the time it reaches the target, there may only be 5-6 men left.
The defending UKR troops waited among the ruins. According to radio traffic, there were two to three fire teams stretched out in front. The UKR HQ directed fire teams at RU AFVs. The fire teams used RPGs to disable at least two AFVs; the remainder fled; however one fire team was hit (at least one killed, one injured). Meanwhile, an RU assault group assaulted the corner. One fire team used small arms in an attempt to pin them down, while a second fire team guided by HQ moved to assist the first and showered RU soldiers with GP-25s. After that, the UKR arty finished the job, and the lone RU survivor fled.
There are mostly three guys at HQ -  skinny bearded guy [at 00:57]. I suspect he is CO. Bulkier bearded guy [at 02:11] I suspect he is XO. He is guiding fire teams. And cleanly shaved guy [06:42] I suspect he is FIST guy.
Some observations:
Unlike the RU army, the UKR HQ does not appear to command and control fire squads. It's more like they guide and advise fire teams, although there is some degree of micromanagement - at one point, XO explicitly tells one fire team to grab AK and made aim shots like we do in CM with target order at something a unit hasn't seen yet. Both sides do not function in the traditional military configuration of platoon-company (I believe this is company headquarters). There are distributed attack teams/groups with radio links to HQ, and that's all there is to it. There is no reserve or another echelon nearby to continue the fight. This, I suppose, is due to the enormous threat of drone-adjusted arty. So, all help is a few kilometers away, and no one can come fast to help except a nearby team. Now the transcript. Please keep in mind the footage is not strictly chronological:
 

If the Russian narrative can be believed it seems the mines and arty were enough to stall the breach before ATGMS started to hit the UKA armour. As @The_Capt previously stated it does not seem that everybody piled on from the RUS side at that time however, and so the UKA forces were able to withdraw, even if on foot, rather than be destroyed. 

Not sure either side will be really pleased with the outcome, as I suspect both will think they could have dealt with the situation better
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If the Russian narrative can be believed it seems the mines and arty were enough to stall the breach before ATGMS started to hit the UKA armour. As @The_Capt previously stated it does not seem that everybody piled on from the RUS side at that time however, and so the UKA forces were able to withdraw, even if on foot, rather than be destroyed. 

Not sure either side will be really pleased with the outcome, as I suspect both will think they could have dealt with the situation better
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The Wavell Room is always worth the read. Nothing really new in the article, but it is well laid out.
 
 

If the Russian narrative can be believed it seems the mines and arty were enough to stall the breach before ATGMS started to hit the UKA armour. As @The_Capt previously stated it does not seem that everybody piled on from the RUS side at that time however, and so the UKA forces were able to withdraw, even if on foot, rather than be destroyed. 

Not sure either side will be really pleased with the outcome, as I suspect both will think they could have dealt with the situation better
P

The Wavell Room is always worth the read. Nothing really new in the article, but it is well laid out.
 
 

If the Russian narrative can be believed it seems the mines and arty were enough to stall the breach before ATGMS started to hit the UKA armour. As @The_Capt previously stated it does not seem that everybody piled on from the RUS side at that time however, and so the UKA forces were able to withdraw, even if on foot, rather than be destroyed. 

Not sure either side will be really pleased with the outcome, as I suspect both will think they could have dealt with the situation better
P

If the Russian narrative can be believed it seems the mines and arty were enough to stall the breach before ATGMS started to hit the UKA armour. As @The_Capt previously stated it does not seem that everybody piled on from the RUS side at that time however, and so the UKA forces were able to withdraw, even if on foot, rather than be destroyed. 

Not sure either side will be really pleased with the outcome, as I suspect both will think they could have dealt with the situation better
P

Hint #8 Final: Fasten your seatbelts and feet up! In we go boys!!
 

RDK raids proved that, contrary to popular belief, RU is particularly weak in border regions. According to my sources inside RU, the word on the street the old man truly lost control of border regions, with both Prig and Kadyriv expressing a wish to travel there to help those regions. Furthermore, the UKR appears to be striking RU units harder with arty there than even in the Donetsk region, aggravating the RU situation (young conscripts started dying there which s very sensitive topic for Ru public)
Bakhmut is a walking time bomb. It appears to be quiet but it is not. Unlike what RU expected, UKR has not stopped pressing there, causing a major challenge for RU. RU must either transfer additional reserves or risk taking a massive moral and political blow if the situation explodes (there's a reason Prig fled so quickly from there).
UKR began pushing back at Avdivka. That worries RU since Avdiivka is so near to Donetsk, and any penetration, no matter how minor, may lead to not just military but also political disaster.
Another publicized assault on Maryinka village has failed. Who are these men defending Maryinka? This is above cyborg level of power.
Current UKR actions in the south has lately begun worrying RU since, on top of the present issues, a major UKR strike in the Volnovkha direction has the potential to collapse the whole RU front there.
UKR created a lot of problems for RU in a lot of different places without committing main forces yet. And all the fuss is about the loss of bunch of Bradley and Leo's that spooked RU craples.  

The situation is confusing; all sides are keeping quiet about what is going on, with the exception of Ru Nat reporters, who I believe are being deceived by RU the command.  I believe the RU situation is bad, but they are sort of holding the line by hurling reserves at UKR (first local reserves, now main) and because UKR are not advancing in real force. 
 
According to UKR, their pushes (including the fight with Bradly and Leo) frightened RU low-level commanders. They became anxious and began calling RU higher command, asking for any support they could get. The RU upper command became spoked and activated hidden arty batteries exposing them to UKR counter-battery fire.
 
RU aviation. UKR AA moves at a slow rate as well.
 
I am always surprised by the amount of RU copium from you. Let's look at what RU side does:
Russian defence chiefs have been mocked for claiming to destroy a German-supplied lethal Leopard 2 tank - when in fact they had blown up tractors in Ukrainian fields.
Let it sink in: RU MOD officially lies in the most blatant way possible (wheels are clearly visible). Nonetheless, you complain that we demand all RU claims to be validated, at the very least, with photos.
FFS, I do not accept even photos unless they are really clear. Recently RU destroyed another Patriot and even displayed a hazy photo of the Patriot launcher. Except it wasn't a Patriot launcher, but an IRIS-T launcher. They did not destroy it, they hit and damaged the IRIS radar (AFAIK it is fixed and working again)
Finally, shortly before the Bradly-Leopard fight, RU released hazy photographs of a destroied Leopard. Except it's not Leopard, but who knows what (maybe an AMX-10) and it might not be even destroyed.
Never accept RU word. Rarely accept RU photos. Demand full video. End of story. 
 
RU are experiencing severe shortage of shells (and ATGMs). RU arty is systematically destroyed by UKR CB becasue RU suck at CB (they cannot make proper CB radar). Capt is right - RU have issues with arty. End of story. 
 
Why probably? Right now, RU is sucking at several Directions, including Bakhmut and RU border territories (RDK raids). Worse, the primary plan they had for a defensive battle in the southern direction has collapsed since UKR are not advancing as RU expected. 
 
Ignorance is bliss, I guess. Back to reality: UKR emulated a big attack by performing recon in force (by platoons or 1-2 companies at most). For the cost of a few vehicles (a couple dozen Bradly/APCs and several Leopards at most), UKR managed to utterly confuse RU command and compel it to:
reveal the bulk of concealed artillery reserved for big UKR offensive begin deploying the majority of reserves (and now committing them to combat) commit aviation to battle I do not really understand all the fuss about UKR losses. 

Guys, there is good chance that the main party would start soon - UKR Mashovets just posted
Just in case, please bear in mind that the UKR is not fighting to breach RU defenses, but rather to attrit them enough to cause the deployment of main reserves. And, if we trust Mashovets (and I have no reason not to), RU just started doing so.