Pete Wenman

This seems significant if accurate
 

 
 
P

you get a like, for the Smiley quote alone.
P

In Putin Russia, Score settle YOU!
Galeev has been a little scattershot lately, but he does make a relevant point here:
... 
 
TL:DR  All cards can go wild in extremis. Especially in Russia, where an economy/polity 'demodernised' itself twice within the last 100+ years.

Even shorter:  for Kremlinologists, GIGO
***
P.S.  Remember the Skripals and any number of other minor players for whom the 'punishment' did not seem to fit the crime, at least by any rationale rational people might use....
“‘Who ever heard of Moscow Rules in the middle of bloody Hampstead anyway?’ Strickland asked, waving out the match.
‘Bloody Hampstead is right,’ Smiley said quietly.”

Exhausting of D-30 barrels of air-assault units. Usually such brigade has battalion of 122 mm D-30 and battalion of 122 mm 2S1. Looks like the place of D-30 now will be substituted for 105 mm. Also 105 mm L119 is more suitable for modern air-assault troops.

Bakhmut map time. I am playing with Google Earth now. So, I created two variants, tell me what is more convenient please. 
Usual type 
 
Map with highlighted areas

Discussion (obviously it is my humble opinion of armchair amateur):
Despite much hype RU push to Bakhmut is weak - they do not have enough forces for left hook to bypass the heaviest UKR defenses using the southern road from Pokrovske. (If they pushed only using Southern road, they would leave Soledar group flank open) The current push is unwise - they have to fight through the most difficult urban terrain with plants and industrial zone on the flank. They are still fighting in Pisky and Bakhmut is not Pisky. Unless they want to bleed to death wagnerites, I do not believe it is their main assault. Most probably they want to fix UKR defenders here and prevent them from reinforcing Soledar (North hook) or Zaitseve (South hook) Obviously Main UKR defenses are in Western part behind river. So, neither capture of eastern industrial zone or even Zabahmutske district is dangerous for UKR defenses.  Because both Bakhmut and Soledar are very strong positions I believe we need to worry only about left (southern) hook and specifically Vershyna-Zaitseve direction as the most easiest and fastest route to cut Bakhmut from supply.

The did it under a contract Мило Миндербиндерович had from the UA.  
Everybody has a share.

I am parsing Ru nats posts to keep up myself. But some posts need to be shared asap. Izum anecdote.
Death of Stalin 2. 

Working on the map and parsing through the info (including new one). The interesting thing is that Pisky seems to be the only RU sort of success in the South direction of Donbass offensive.  While what happened in Pisky was dramatic what is happening elsewhere is different. In Avdyivka so far RU completely stalled outside of the settlement. In Maryinka they barely control 1/3 of the settlement. More like they contest it while UKR are holding firm important landfill of the Shchurovka mine that dominates whole southern part of the settlement.

It's important to distinguish US Cavalry from that of other nations. Where the typical roles of Cavalry are screening, reconnaissance and exploitation, US Cavalry have a fourth role, that of economy of force missions (i.e., using them as a more conventional force, when the need arises). That's almost unique to the US, so it's not a "normal" capability in broader terms.

Some of the typical Cavalry roles are indeed above CM scale, and will therefore play a role in scenario design. Many of the missions in CMCW use Cavalry units, because they're likely to be first to the fight in a Fulda Gap scenario.

Nevertheless, *all* of the cavalry roles are also important on the scale of a CM battlefield, and that would be true regardless of equipment or time period.

To understand reconnaissance units in general, it's important to understand what they're for. Most reconnaissance units are equipped with fast vehicles and good optics - whether that's just a jeep, a pair of binoculars and a radio, the large open windows of the BRDM giving excellent vision whilst under cover of armour, or sophisticated suites of thermal optics and satellite communications.

Any armament they have is often secondary, but it's typically designed to deal with the threats they are likely to encounter - that of other reconnaissance units.

The British Scimitar is a great example of a reconnaissance vehicle. A company-sized force might have a pair of them in the Cold War, and this pair would roam ahead of the formation, possibly dismounting to spot when appropriate.

The job of this pair would be to screen - get advanced warning of the incoming enemy, and to do so in positions which do not give away their position to the enemy. They would do this by screening forward of the friendly positions, using their speed to get well forward.

Then, the first enemy they would be likely to see in this context would be a Soviet recon platoon - perhaps three BMPs. In this situation, the 30mm Rarden is in it's element, and two Scimitars fighting from successive hull down positions are a serious overmatch for three BMPs. 

So consider this scenario from the perspective of the Soviet player. They've sent forward their recon platoon, with the hope of finding the enemy position. Instead, a pair of Scimitars has engaged them from a position entirely unrelated to their defensive lines, and further has destroyed their recon platoon without giving anything more away.

That means that the only option for the Soviet player would be to turn their CRP from a force that's creating the conditions for the main body to operate - perhaps seizing key terrain or starting to shape the battlefield with artillery - and instead has been relegated to a probing force, slowing inching their way forwards without the information that the recon platoon should have provided.

This tiny screening asset has just had an outsized impact on the way this entire battle will unfold.

The "how" of Recon is better described by Bil than me (https://battledrill.blogspot.com/2014/01/reconnaissance.html), but there are two fundamentally different approaches to how you employ intelligence to shape your course of action. One is that you're relying on recon assets to form the plan - the entire early portion of the battle will be led by those assets, and you're intending to reveal the strengths and weaknesses of the enemy before you make decisions. This is the safer, more flexible option, but it's also very slow. It also represents the typical approach that a NATO force might employ in most situations. The latter method is that you lean heavily on your terrain and enemy analysis, and use recon elements in a much simpler role - to firm up that picture. Typically these would roam ahead of your force as per the Soviet example above, with the much simpler goal of working out where the enemy are. This is a lot more dangerous, but it's significantly faster, and it's therefore the approach that the Soviet armies should be using in CMCW.

Neither is "recon by death", although both obviously involve accepting some risk. Sometimes knowing where the enemy aren't is more important than knowing where the enemy are, and making sure that a route or a terrain feature is clear from enemy can be equally or more important than actually seeing them.

This seems problematic:

Ok, so what is keeping the RA in the fight?…and they are in the fight.  That slow grinding action at Severodonetsk was very costly for the RA but we did not see mass mutinies or even desertions.  The Russian system is clearly under stress but the signs of a complete morale failure are not there.  It may very well happen or even be happening but RA troops are believing in something right now.
I get the cynicism, find me a soldier without it, however, the state of mind of the Russian soldier is directly related to their performance.  I have no doubt there is fear of their own side - the Russians have a long history of that, but I suspect there are deeper belief systems at play.  Or at least I would be cautious until we can confirm otherwise.
We also have to be careful with the de-humanization of the Russian troops.  Not because we have sympathy or “like them” but instead to build a clearer picture of their mindset and how to exploit it.  If we consider them “un-human” then we are left with “kill them all” and/or grossly misunderstand their resolve.
Based on what we have seen the RA definitely has issues with moral and motivation; however, they are still attacking.  And in my experience troops do this very dangerous work for various reasons but at the foundation has to be a level of belief in something. 
I, for one, am waiting for the whole rotten edifice of the RA to fall apart again like it did in Mar, but until it does, I am very interested in what keeps them going as it will shape decisive battles, such as the one that could be forming up at Kherson.

So Kherson...ooo boy.  Well first off, I am buying off on the whole "traitor" theory that Kherson was likely sold-out, that or the UA simply got stretched too thin but this is the major southern axis so I do not see how they did not prioritize it - maybe they did and Russians down this way actually demonstrated talent.  Why?
Well because on paper this city should be damn near impossible to take from the South:

By my eyes there are roughly 5 crossing sites that one can pull from Google.  The Dnieper is a deep old river so I cannot tell if there are any fording sites but I doubt it.  Wiki says the Dnieper runs at about 1.5 m/sec which is fairly slow and easily swimmable and pontoon-able.  However, Kherson is right on a major delta stretch, to the point that a second river breaks out called the "Konka" (sp?).  Anyway this is a major water obstacle, like Rhine river "major".  The river itself ranges from 500-1000m but that is not the rub, it is the delta - that is a very angry and hungry looking swamp that looks like the mouth of a Dune Sandworm to mobility.  Sure you can pontoon the bridge but those wetlands look like they will eat Divisions, we are talking major road and causeway work in order to sustain.
As I said there are 5 possible crossing sites: 
-Starting on the far left, there is a possible amphibious run between Sofiivka and Rybal'Che but this is also a major undertaking.  That is a 12km run so we are basically talking D-Day but there is infrastructure on either side to support (I am not sure about the shoreline, would need to do an MSFS flight).
- Then we have the Antonovskiy Bridge that the UA is currently turning into swiss cheese.  That is a 1000m crossing without the bridge and a lot of greenish looking swamp hell on the N bank.  Tough.
- We then have what looks like a rail bridge called "Antonivsʹkyy Zaliznychnyy", not sure if it still up but it is about 6km upstream from the Antonovskiy.  If the UA did not blow that one up it will have to go as well (did a quick check but cannot see if it was already).
- Next is what I think is the only decent amphib/pontoon site along this gawd-awful shoreline.  Just on the western outskirts of L'vov about 34 km up from the Antonovskiy there is what looks like a viable crossing site.  The south bank aint great but this is a hydro-electric line crossing so road infrastructure is there (note would have to do a second small bridging op about 1km to the east on a small inlet), which takes one up to an old monastery in Korsunka.
- Last, is the road bridge at the Kakhovka hydro electrical station.  Looks modern and solid.
After that further upstream the Dnieper expands out and although one could find a decent shore line we are basically back to D-Day.
So What?  Well it is like Stalingrad, a city with it back to a major obstacle coming from the UA side.  All war is communication and retaking Kherson will send big political signals in all directions.  It would be a clear sign that the UA can do offensive in a major way, which should assist in shoring up the cottage-cheese spines of some in the West.  It would also be a major blow to Russia, effectively undeciding that entire front.  I am sure they will try and sell it as "we withdrew for the good of the people" noise but even the most doe-eyed Russian believer will have a seed of doubt planted.  
So to the big question: how does the UA take Kherson? Well a couple schools of thought, first a Western solution:

Coming from the Western School of Manoeuvre, the game here would be to cut off Kherson and choke it out, without having to do heavy urban combat.  So Shape, Manoeuvre, Isolate and Attrit would be the order of the day.  A big armored led spearhead thrust down from the North across all that wonderful tank country.  A bounce crossing on those two eastern sites, complete with SF, Airmobile snaps and then swing westward and cut the Russian LOCs completely.  Meanwhile keep the pressure on Kherson from the North, while using deep strike to Fix supporting forces.  Very nice, so long as one has air supremacy.  
I will say it now, if the UA can do this, the war will be over much sooner than anyone thinks. As I have noted before, I have grown allergic to big bold strokes in this war.  The biggest issue, beyond establishing pre-conditions, is time-space-force.  That is about a 130 km thunder run and would likely take a couple modern heavy divisions to pull off, maybe three.  I do not think the UA has that kind of force, nor are they going to get the pre-conditions to support it.  I have no doubt that pundits will start drawing stuff like this...use it for profiling purposes.  I pray to god that the UA could pull off this offensive but I also do not think he is listening...very unlikely.  So what could a UA offense look like?

Attrition-to-Manoeuvre, not the other way around.  The UA could compress Kherson and pull in a lot of RA in reaction.  With their superior ISR and deep strike they could do a lot of damage in depth - given the ranges, this whole thing at Antonovskiy could be a setup for ATACMS arrival.  If they start hitting EW, then UAS are also back on the menu.  As they compress Kherson, their artillery will pull in range as well.  As they pull and bleed the RA, an opportunity to do a North South offensive opens up but only take it to the bridge at the hydro-plant, while cutting every crossing.  You might bag the RA forces to the east.
The major problem with this one is Kherson itself.  If the RA is trapped like rats, they will fight like them.  The UA could break itself in a city of that size (which they know after Mariupol).  My guess is that they will simply bleed the RA white here, hitting them once again along the entire length of the RA operational system.  This presents the modern dilemma of "stay and bleed out" or "withdraw, preserve force and lose the city", either way, so long as the UA can keep pulling the RA in and killing them in numbers while they try and hold onto Kherson it is a winnable situation.
Key will be setting operational conditions and holding onto them.  Deep strike, deep strike and deep strike.  They need to keep hitting RA logistics to keep the RA guns silent and then the UA guns can go to work on the rest without fearing overwhelming c-btty.
How is it actually going to go down...no idea.  In fact it might not happen at all, the whole thing could be a feint.  But one thing is for sure, it has got the Russians wondering.  And on the battlefield uncertainty on your opponent is a useful thing. 

In the Fulda Gap, that most terrible dawn came and went for the US V Corps. The 11th Cavalry had bent, but it had not broken. Exercising units that had been caught flat-footed largely made good their escape, battered but capable of reconstitution. NATO deployed, alarmed but resolute, to protect this retreat.  The allied air forces made a herculean effort to create space through strikes in the enemy rear areas. The Elbe crossings were hit, hard. Much closer to home, crossings over the Werra were hit with equal violence. The cost was great, the Soviet air defence asked a high price for admission to these lucrative targets. Nevertheless, the initial Soviet supplies and follow-on forces were slowed.  The powerful shock forces immediately in the battle area still had to be dealt with, but that was a more manageable battle.
Anyone who knew anything, knew this: the initial move was a Soviet masterstroke and had shaped things to their advantage nicely. NATO, however, hadn’t been put in checkmate.
It was a different B Team, but the situation is not all that different: once again thrust into a nightmare scenario against the best an enemy had to offer. That is the situation B Company, 2nd of the 28th Infantry, 1st Brigade, 8th Infantry Division found itself in as July 16th dawned.
CPT Booth was still attempting to recover his balance. The war had come as a violent shock to everyone. His company’s war was not even 24 hours old, and yet his command had already been handled roughly.
First had come hurried orders on the 15th of July to take blocking positions. They were to hold until friendly exercising units could retreat through them. The friendlies had all gotten away and clean, but the enemy forward security element that had been hot on their heels had only been stopped at egregious cost. B Team’s first ever fight started well enough: the company’s ITOWs and attached scouts had flamed several enemy BMPs and a tank. Then the sheer force of enemy fire had sent them reeling backwards to new, hasty positions. An unexpected and sudden flank from several T-80s creeping through dead ground had almost spelled disaster. They been stopped at the ten-yard line in a point-blank engagement. The effort had nearly destroyed Booth’s command. When they received the order to pull back, they left behind three burning M60s – one containing the decapitated corpse of the Tank Platoon leader (he couldn’t even remember the man’s name) – a scout track, and several ITOWs, some from the Scouts, some from his Weapons platoon.
That had been the toughest moment of his life so far. Booth had learned from his first day of OCS: don’t leave your dead, never, ever, leave your wounded. The bastard that had said that had clearly never imagined what this war would look like. Booth’s FSGT, a dependable, quiet Vietnam veteran found him early that evening, weeping in the woods, a shuddering mess. Without a word the NCO clapped a hand on his shoulder, then turned around to go make sure no one would find their CO before he regained his composure.
Though Booth could hardly take credit for it, things had improved after that. An ambush conducted by his 2nd Platoon, surviving scouts and ITOWs had mauled a Soviet security element in the thick forest astride the MSR.  When they pulled back in their M113s, th
ey had left a platoon of T-64s and almost a company’s worth BMPs burning, piled up on the asphalt and along the shoulders. Similar, less dramatic, ambushes had been pulled off by the TF’s scouts and A Company. It had bought the battalion what Booth had already learned was the most precious resources of all in war: time. More importantly, it had burgeoned their sagging morale and showed them that the enemy could be defeated. So violent were these ambushes, they had compelled the Soviets to halt for the evening and night, to deploy their main forces for a deliberate attack.
TF “Dragon” had been able to dig in, lay obstacles, rest, reorganize, conduct proper terrain walks of their next intended battleground and even rehearse planned movements and retreats. Better yet, Booth had been able to sleep. The Soviets were now facing the unenviable task of regaining momentum through a set piece attack into prepared defences. Booth’s company, deployed in front of the suspected main effort, was going to stop them.
Chapter 4: Equilibrium
Neuhof, Forward Edge of the Battle Area. July 16th, 1100 hours.
Ten Fateful Minutes

A quiet stand-to. The Soviets didn’t come in the morning mist. The TF’s S-2 had estimated they were not capable, but Booth hadn’t really believed it. It had given the men a chance to have a hot breakfast, and for his rifle platoons to rehearse their drives into their pre-selected fighting positions. They had now once again returned to their hides, and Booth was going over the plan one last time with the headquarters’ team. Sitting on the ramp of the M113 with an overlay awkwardly spread out over both knees, he went over the scheme, taskings and timings once more.

He had called in the unfamiliar commanders of two attachments made to his unit: 1LT Lyles, a tanker cross-attached from a neighbouring armour Battalion and 1LT Swafford, a platoon leader from the Anti-tank company. They so far had made good impressions. They had been deferential but confident in advising how their commands should be used and had had a great role in shaping the battle plan. Lyles’ M60s were equipped with Tank Thermal Sights and were referred to as TTS. They would be a key component of the plan, a potentially decisive advantage. Swafford’s TOW launchers were older M150s, and would work closely with the TTS to make up for this.
“Let’s make sure we’re all clear on this. Each BP needs to position its vehicles to be able to fire into at least two EAs. We need to create a cycle of combat.”

There it was again. Booth had used that phrase ad nauseum all through yesterday evening and morning. It would have made his special platoon leaders exchange wry looks if the situation wasn’t so serious, and if the plan didn’t make so much good sense.
“Forward deployed units need to get their shots in and hand off the engagement quickly, falling back after the first couple of shots. No delay. The scouts, with some help from your platoon, Lyle, will handle those early engagement areas.”

Nods all around.
“We’re going to operate on the assumption that the other team are going to get to the goal line. We’re going to let em through but make sure they arrive in no position to cross it. Rifle platoons will clean up, Lyle’s main BP will hit anything heavy that manages to get into these final EAs.”


"Alright. That’s it. Get to your positions. Expect them before the morning is through.”
Booth had learned from his first encounter with the enemy. If they wanted to get through somewhere, they could do it the first time with high probability. It was better to bend rather than put up a wall early and watch the Soviets knock it down. He also remembered how his Company had almost immediately descended into chaos when trying to fall back to several successive positions. Too many successive BPs complicated things. A set of main BPs to fall back into was preferable.
He moved into the cargo space of his command track. As the ramp closed behind him, he went over his scheme once more…
His thoughts were interrupted by a squawk over the radio. Through light interference came the report: Dorfborn was coming under artillery fire.

“The centre of town is being hit hard. No casualties so far.” Dull crumps reverberate through the hull of Booth’s M113. “Sir, Neuhof is getting hit pretty hard” the gunner informs him. In the latter case, at least, the Soviets were not at risk of hitting any of his men, who remained to the rear in hides. The locals who had remained had, he hoped, listened to his missive to remain in their basements.  

Here we go. Booth thinks to himself as he tightens the straps of his steel helmet. Further reports were coming in now from Dorfborn: enemy vehicles in column, fanning out into line. Nodding at the company FIST, pre-planned fires are called upon to begin laying a thick fire down in front of the enemy’s axes of advance. The battle for Neuhof had begun.

For the Soviets, the fight begins disastrously. Several BMPs are destroyed trying to run the gauntlet of artillery fire. The FIST’s face betrays no satisfaction, or any other emotion, as he acknowledges the fire and attempts to keep the artillery fire shifting in line with the enemy’s advance.
Despite the pounding the bulk of these lead forces push through the fire, T-64s in the lead. The first direct fire engagement then begins, as the forward deployed TOWs and armour pick up these targets. In two minutes, TOWs managed to destroy several enemy recce, anti-tank and ADA elements that had exposed themselves in the treelines lining the valley floor. They also engage several T-64s that are furtively pushing forward, with catastrophic effect. Within two minutes, a platoon of the enemy’s tanks are burning. 


Scattered throughout the valley are American OPs, who help Booth tightly control the battle and report these initial successes. Prompted by the reports of the continuing Soviet advance, Booth’s attached TACP requests the pre-planned interdiction sorties to begin. A-10s which had been flying a race-track pattern behind friendly lines acknowledge, drop altitude and vector themselves in.

Within two minutes, the better part of an enemy company has suffered severe attrition. The start of the battle has gone almost precisely as Booth had planned. Almost. The initial exchange of fire is not one sided, and just as one of the forward ITOWs start to pull back, it is struck by a Spandrel. Its crew does not survive.


In Dorfborn, the NCO leading the scout section can see another enemy company crossing the River Fleide, entering into engagement area Blue. His men take up the awkward, cross-legged firing position with their M47 Dragons and remove the covers from the thermal sights. Concentrating hard, and trying to ignore the reverberating thumps of artillery hitting the town only a few dozen meters behind their positions, they begin to engage. A T-64 is soon burning.



A second soon joins it. The third shrugs off the Dragon as if it was nothing. Its turret orients towards the village, and sweeps back and forth, trying to pinpoint the firing position.
“That’s it, pack up and move next door. They’re onto us!” a SGT screams at his two scouts, straining to be heard over the screaming howls of the still-intensifying artillery. The Scouts brave the streets for brief moments at a time as they dash between houses, safety, and new firing positions. As new positions are taken up, they continue to report back to Booth. The enemy are flowing like water on either side of the village, and are beginning to present their flanks. These are choice shots, and the scouts make the most of the opportunity, hitting another pair of BMPs.
Then, the A-10s arrive. Two are shot down immediately by ADA, but the other pair close up and push through. Cluster bombs drop onto a buildup of enemy BMPs crossing the bottleneck at the River Fliede.

Back in Booth’s command track, 2LT Bartels, the TACP officer, officer looks shaken. Despite all the artillery fire onto identified enemy ADA, the Soviets still had more out there. It had been so effective. The remaining pair of A-10s don’t try their luck for a second pass and try to burn their way out. One of the two remaining A-10s is badly damaged by an anti-air missile and comes down extremely hard on landing back at base. Three A-10s for, at best, a handful of BMPs. He reports the ineffective air attack to the CO. His part in the battle is done. He can’t help but feel he’s somehow let his comrades down.
Meanwhile, the enemy continues to bypass Dorfborn on either flank. The Scouts are beginning to run low on Dragon missiles and their escape window is closing. Radioing a warning to the forward deployed TTS on their left flank of the targets coming their way, they close up shop and mount up. A harrowing cross-country dash in their M113s shortly follows, but they are all able to pull back behind Neuhof intact and in good order. The scouts never learn just how timely their retreat is, for as they are pulling back, a platoon of enemy BMPs finally breaks off from the pack and enters Dorfborn.

As the scouts are preparing to pull back, Booth is able to piece together the battlefield based on the reports from them, and the forward deployed armour. The enemy, as was expected, is bypassing the village on either side. Neuhof was clearly their destination. With the covering forces displacing, it was time to put the rifle platoons into their battle positions. With a terse codeword across the company net, he orders his tracks out of their hides and into their positions around Neuhof. They had rehearsed things excellently: it will take around 5 minutes to get set up.


As the tracks rumble towards BPs 1A and 1B respectively, the platoon leaders exercise the independent authority Booth has trusted them with. The first of many decisions: do the M113s remain in the BP, or out? In 1B, the platoon leader decides he will order his three M113s to pull back to their hides. His position is closest to Neuhof’s town centre and he knows enemy artillery fire can intensify on it quickly. In 1A, the platoon leader has already decided he will disperse the tracks into fighting positions. He needs as much firepower as he can get, as there are a lot more ingress routes to his position for an enemy to take.
The covering battle is over, and the fight begins to shift to the main BPs. SFC MacDade, Lyles’ platoon NCO opens up the engagement. Hidden away in BP2 with a OP/LP, he is told that a better part of a MRC is fully in EA Blue now. He orders his TTS and his wingman forward, using the treeline, a cottage and its hedged garden as a attack by fire position. MacDade accounts for two T-64s in rapid succession, guiding his gunner on with alacrity with his commander’s override.



The savage enfilading fire seems to sap the Soviet company in EA Blue of some impetus. They hesitate, then briefly halt. MacDade and his wingmen hit several more BMPs, despite the enemy attempting to return fire. The laser rangefinder equipped TTSs are proving as decisive as Booth had hoped.

The BMPs surging to the left of Dorfborn run into the outposted TTS that had covered the scout sections’ retreat. In quick succession, the gunner knocks out two BMPs as they push past the treeline. The TC, a SSGT, is too focused on looking through the CTSD at his gunner’s handiwork. He never identifies the third BMP, skulking in the treeline, as it hits his tank with a Spandrel. The jet of chemical energy eviscerates the entire crew. The SSGT never knows why he died, indeed never has a chance to realise he is dying. The M60 shudders and burns.


The surviving Soviet squad leader has no radio transmitter with which to report that the way around Dorfborn is open; and so he clambers out of the forward hatch, awkwardly fumbling to produce a green flare pistol from below. Aiming straight at the sky he fires it through the canopy of the treeline, willing it to be seen. His prayers are answered: his Battalion commander sees it, even in the bright summer morning, and immediately orders the surviving elements of this MRC to push towards it. He promises a redoubling of the artillery effort to the Major leading this thrust.
There’s a gap in Booth’s armour, and he doesn’t yet realise it.
MacDade, for his part, knows he’s overstayed his welcome in the firing positions. It has only been two minutes, but he knows that is a long time in this type of environment. He orders his wingman to pull back after his own tank. Just as his tank is arriving in cover behind one of the German cottages in the BP, his wingman’s tank is struck by a missile. He doesn’t see from where. Immediately, he thinks: that could’ve been me, and then, glad it wasn’t. A pang of guilt at the selfish thought when four men have just died. Then, relief: the TTS stirs. A slight move of the gun. Hatches open, cautiously, and a man clambers out of the turret. He turns around and helps lift an unconscious second crewman out, aided by the third, who unceremoniously is pushing the stricken man out by his boot soles . A fourth crewman is seen rounding the front end of the tank, arriving to help take the wounded, with almost careful reverence now, down from the engine deck of the tank.
MacDade waves them into the nearby cottage. The three men, a bit shocked but otherwise alright, quickly comply, the burly driver fireman carrying the wounded, unconscious gunner.

Across the battlezone, the Soviets bite back, no longer mere targets in the distance. Unbeknownst to MacDade, the T-64 that took out his wingman is itself shortly knocked out from BP 3B, as 1LT Swafford orders a pair of his TOWs to move forward and engage from the giant potash pile that looms over Neuhof.  As these TOWs are pulling back from the edge of the plateau, one is struck, and it is ripped apart in a blinding flash as its missiles touch off.

This gory disaster doesn’t discourage them. Swafford then orders his other pair of TOW carriers forward in BP3A. These, at the base of the potash mound, creep into hulldown positions on a forested slope. Another T-64 burns. This time they pull back safely into their hides.

The direct fire engagement in EA Red and Blue slackens as MacDade and Swafford pull their vehicles back into hides. The Soviets regain their composure, close formation, and surge onwards. The battle will have to be picked up again in EAs White and Yellow, as Booth’s infantrymen bottle up the Soviets on the mine fields protecting the approaches to Neuhof. For now, the tanks and TOWs lay low, their commanders seeking new firing positions in their respective BPs, anticipating the next engagement.
In BPs 1A and 1B, the infantrymen have debussed from their M113s. Booth and his command team have joined them in 1B, near the two intact bridges that help the town straddle the river Fleide. The decisive engagement was now a sure thing, as the Soviets seemed intent to press forward despite the mauling. 

Booth was fighting the surging adrenaline, trying to stay objective whilst monitoring the engagements on the company net. His XO was sending him SITREPs from the rest of the TF but whatever he was told was forgotten almost immediately. The rest of the Battalion could be on Mars, as far as he was concerned. His entire universe had shrunk to the small area of Neuhof and its approaches. So far, he was still master of this domain. Despite the almost non-factor combat aviation had been, the engagement had gone almost as well as he had planned it. He took mental stock of the situation, collating the many reports that had come in over the last few minutes, trying to form a cohesive image:

The company team was doing alright. For the loss of two tanks and two TOWs, they had accounted for an estimated eight T-64s, nine BMP-2s and five BRDMs.  The equivalent of a tank company and an MRC had been mauled across the first two EAs. So far, the enemy’s courses of action had conformed to what he had expected. They were bypassing Dorfborn, and appeared to be aiming to strike Neuhof from his left flank with one MRC, whilst another beelined for the train station to his front-right. What remained to be seen was whether they would stick to the low ground on the right, heading directly for BP1A, or try to climb the flat hill he had emplaced his surviving two M60A1s, under the command of SGT Marx, on. Another unknown, and a growing disquiet in his mind, was what was happening on his left. They had no eyes there since the scouts had pulled out, and the outpost TTS never pulled into MacDade’s position. It was tough terrain, but if the Soviets wanted to squeeze through it, they could.
It was 1110 hours. It had taken only ten minutes for this carnage to develop.
The Decisive Engagement
Artillery once again dominates the battle on both sides. Dorfborn, despite the Soviet intrusion into it, is hit once again, hard, by their artillery. Just as they did in the start, they pummel empty air. BMPs begin to press forward again, a bit more raggedly now, behind this renewed barrage.
American artillery answers, with fires coming down on TRPs that hope to close the exits from Dorfborn. 1LT Snook, the company FIST, had rode into BP 1B with Booth and had deployed forward in a rail house so to better guide the artillery. Now that his fires were under direct observation, rather than simply being from an overlay, the American artillery began to show increased agility. Fires chase the Soviets all the way and punish any halt.
A brief conversation between Booth and SGT Marx about the situation, results in his tank section pulling back to an alternative position behind BP 1A. They pull back swiftly, grateful to no longer be out on a limb with what’s left of a MRC bearing down on them.

A brief lull, filled only by the artillery fire from both sides, ensues. At 1116, the first Soviet BMPs erupt forward, nosing into the second and final set of EAs. A BMP enters into EA white, and is engaged from BP3, with Lyle and Swafford’s vehicle creeping forward once more. A TTS misses, but a TOW doesn’t. A second one follows, and this time it is shot up by the riflemen of 2LT LeBlanc’s platoon stationed in BP 1A.

The OP/LP assigned to MacDade’s BP feeds a steady report of more enemy vehicles.
“Oscar 2 send for Bravo 26. This callsign currently observing three times BMP in EA Blue and two times BMP in EA Yellow.”
“Bravo 26 copies. Out.”

Booth forewarns BP 1B’s platoon of the encroaching Soviets. It’s leader, 2LT Clausen, affirms and goes about ensuring his Dragon teams are deployed and ready. By 1117 they spot the enemy. Clausen wisely orders his men to hold fire, waiting for clearer shots, husbanding the limited ammunition his M47s have. Over the next three minutes, the OP/LP report more and more contacts heading for Neuhof via Dorfborn. It is the missing third Soviet MRC.
At 1120, the BMPs in EA Yellow are close enough and providing good silhouettes. Clausen orders his anti-tanks to engage at will. A BMP platoon is destroyed several hundred meters away from Neuhof. 


Clausen, like the scouts before him, instructs his Dragon teams to displace between shots. The men dash between neighbouring suburban houses. The civilians, almost all sheltering in their basements as instructed, wince every time they hear the heavy thuds of GI’s boots thumping against their floorboards and stairwells. Their terror is borne out of a helplessness, and ignorance.
“The Soviets must be at the edge of town!”
“Hush! Stay quiet, lay still”
A whispered exchange in German between an elderly man and his wife. They cannot know that the battle is going splendidly, that the Soviet advance, in the face of their losses, means nothing.
1LTs Lyle and Swafford continue to conduct berm drills in BP 3, nipping at the flanks and rear of the enemy surging into EA Yellow. What the infantry are unable to see or engage, they do. The dispersion of fire is excellent, and to Swafford’s particular relief, none of the finite number of TOWs are wasted firing at already destroyed enemy targets. 


The fight in EA Yellow reaches a crescendo as the reinforcing enemy MRC arrive in strength. Burgeoned by the reinforcements, the Soviets redouble their efforts to break into Neuhof. As the BMPs surge forward, they strike the minefield that had been laid through the middle of EA Yellow. Many strike mines and are immobilized. Several other BMPs managed to skirt the edge of the obstacle belt, moving along the rail line. That fight falls to Clausen.

For the majority of the MRC, milling along the obstacle belt, their situation soon becomes incredibly hot. First, they come under crushing artillery fire. Booth, from his forward command post in BP 1B, can see that a unique opportunity has come to destroy the majority of this MRC in a very short span of time. The ITOWs that had fallen back harass the halted enemy, knocking out a few from the agricultural plots behind Neuhof. 


Booth thinks quickly. Then, taking the handheld from the RTO, broadcasts across the company net. Like the voice of God, his voice punches into the ears of all his mounted platoon leaders.
“This is Bravo 26, all Bravo Tango callsigns to move forward and attack by fire enemy MRC in EA Yellow at 1125 hours. Repeat: H-hour is at 1125 hours.”
To Booth’s grim delight, he sees more and more enemy BMPs begin to pile up in front of EA Yellow’s obstacle belt. A target rich environment.
For surviving veterans of 2-28 INF, in the decades that follow, at reunions amongst themselves and in interviews for the media, much will be made of B Company’s “mad minute at Neuhof.” For the men who were there, it would become a moment of pride. Enlisted men would, during their dusty recollections, say this was the moment they believed they would win the war.
At 1125 hours, SGT Marx, 1LT Lyles, and 1LT Swafford order all their vehicles forward. Booth, likewise, orders the ITOWs under his command to engage. The TTS open the wound, with Lyles’ tank striking a BMP in EA Yellow. 

Then, an ITOW behind BP 1A adds to the tally.


The surviving TOW vehicle on the potash mound picks off a straggling BMP in EA Blue.

A TOW in BP3 claims a second BMP in EA Blue. The carnage proceeds: SGT Marx’s wingman — even with the far less accurate M60A1 — manages to destroy a BMP in EA Yellow as well - an ITOW behind Neuhof hits a BMP skulking in Dorfborn. Finally, Lyle’s wingman engages a BMP just as it fires a Spandrel missile. The BMP explodes as its missile pitbulls harmlessly off into the sky, to destinations unknown. 


The assault is utterly devastating on the Soviets. Within 60 seconds, 7 BMPs are burning. All that make it through the gauntlet of fire are the aforementioned pair of BMPs, which snake their way into Neuhof along the low ground. Dutifully, amazingly, fanatically, they disgorge their infantry, who storm into Clausen’s positions. The 2LT cannot but admire the courage of his Soviet counterparts.

Nevertheless, admiration doesn’t translate to pity. A M60 and a Dragon were already pre positioned to watch this entrance into town, and their fire forces the Soviet dismounts to duck into an alley, and right into his first squad. It’s hardly a fight. Caught in the open, the Soviet riflemen are gunned down in a violent fusillade. The only return fire the infantry receive comes from the final Soviet, caught by a M60 burst, who fires his AK in a reflexive spraying arc as he slumps over, dead. Mercifully, his steel helmet slides forward and covers his face, sparing his killer from having to humanize him in the fatal moment.


By 1135 hours the enemy’s attack is clearly shattered. The only surviving enemy are seen deployed at the forward edge of Dorfborn. An eerie silence momentarily falls…but is quickly shattered by a heavy Soviet barrage on 2LT’s Leblanc’s position in BP 1A. The initial pounding kills a pair of men, but the platoon is able to crawl into shelter on the bottom floor, and wait out the barrage in relative safety, even as it ruins and rubbles the buildings they are in.

Again, the American artillery responds in kind, with much more effect. Guided on by 1LT Snook, 155s expend their remaining munitions on the forces in Dorfborn. The fire, so heavily concentrated in such a small space, rips some BMPs apart, flips others, and peppers the survivors with shrapnel. 

Booth briefly toys with the idea of counterattacking Dorfborn, encouraged by the scout sections report that a covered, undefended route onto the flank of the shattered village is open through the trees. He ultimately declines to do so, however. Cognizant of the diminished ammunition of both his direct and indirect fire weaponry, and the importance of making sure Lyles’ and Swafford’s platoons do not suffer unnecessary losses (their parent units will need them, after all), he decides against risking a broken neck so late in the battle.

It becomes a moot point: under the cover of smoke and diesel splashed on engine decks, the surviving Soviets pull out of Dorfborn, slinking back in the direction they came. The Battle for Neuhof is over. It is 1142 hours.
As the pounding of artillery fades, the first thing Booth notices – strange as it seemed – was that he could hear birds chirping; had they returned that quickly, or had they simply stayed throughout the fire and fury? The next thing he noticed is that he didn’t feel tired, at all. Wasn’t he supposed to feel fatigued as the adrenaline poured out of his body? All he felt was exhilaration, and satisfaction. They had stopped the Soviets cold, and mauled (no, he corrected himself, destroyed) a MRB for functionally no loss.
His XO was already taking stock of the casualties. Booth knew he would not have many more letters to write, not much more than a dozen, at best. Unlike yesterday, he did not feel a man’s life had been lost in vain. That made it easier. His dependable FSGT had already departed in the TACP’s track to go fetch ammunition from Battalion. Battalion, he thought, how had the rest of the TF done? He couldn’t hear any sounds of battle on either flank…but he could see in the distance to the right, black smoke spires wafting over the forest dividing him from A Company’s engagement areas. A good sign. He concluded. Turning to his RTO, he dictated his SITREP for TOC...

Yup. In words of Captain Blackadder: " War hasn't been fought this badly since Olaf the Hairy, High Chief of all the Vikings, accidentally ordered 80,000 battle helmets with the horns on the inside".
 

Yeah, something’s gone wrong with the twitter embeds for the forum.  Won’t load at all on Safari for IPad/IPhone, causing pages to freeze up.  Chrome on PC does not display them properly, just showing text.

I just realised. The Russians have put up barges with radar reflectors next to Kerch bridge and then tested our a smoke screen.
They are literally defending it with smoke and mirrors  

All right guys, this is a post where I spill my guts in quite an emotional manner, please move along if your're not up for it.
I'll start with stating that I'm really fond of this community that I accidentally found thanks to @Der Zeitgeist. While we differ in perception of some minutiae of the events unraveling in front of us, we all seem to share the same view on whats right and moral in this context. And that is really a lot, more that I could expect from most of my average 'real', 'physical' acquaintances.
For my whole life, since I was an 8 years old kid listening to my grandpa's war tales, I was deeply interested in all things military related. It is easy to get a young boy interested  in this kind of stuff - the power, the agency, the feeling of purpose this provides is unmatched by anything else in the world. Of course  when you're still an adolescent, your understanding of what war/ armed conflict means cannot be deep enough. As I was entering my adulthood, even studying military history academically, I grew to hate the very notion of armed conflict and violence. I guess getting the real grasp of what war means to a regular person was too much to me at this point. I retained my interest, but didn't really pursue it apart from theoretical knowledge. Especially, I dodged the last years of draft i Poland - neither me, nor Polish civil society in general was really ready for it in early 2000's. I was living my life happily since then, like if "The End of History" was and undisputed fact of life.
And it really changed with the start of war in Ukraine. I could easily picture myself in the position of average Kyiv or Kharkiv citizen, a guy in his late 30s, with a reasonable career in IT, concentrated on making a living for his wife and young kids, who is suddenly confronted with the need to physically fight for all that is important for him. 
Of course, in this great community we mostly  concentrate of relatively coldly analysing what is going on, trying to get a grasp of events the way a historian narrates the Battle of Kursk - it is of course THE WAY to practically understand the events and be able to draw conclusions. That's how a commander should look at it, putting his feeling aside. This however isn't the only way to talk about war, especially it isn't the only "right" way to do so. 
On a personal or local society level, what this war is is the fight between right and wrong, between liberty and slavery, between good and evil. Of course, if you are a mature individual, you understand that the good and bad are very relative terms, and it's best to avoid such violent situations at all. Yet, it if comes to the conflict like this, for me the only true way to talk about the people on the very front line, in the trenches facing The Enemy, is poetry and epic prose. The cold analysis is of course important to practical understanding of the situation, yet it doesn't do justice to a person giving his or her life for a greater cause. Having said that, I run at a few videos kept very much in the spirit I outlined here:
A music video to Sabaton's 40:1 song, really fitting the evens of the first few weeks of war. We might've forget it already, but the first days were about the grassroots citizen resistance that in many cases stopped the orcs. Videos from February and March are really reminding of what it is all about:
Here's an Azov oath from 2015, it's as powerful as it gets:
And a subtitled Ukrainian anthem:
There's a conclusion to this rant - today I sent a letter to my local Territorial Defense brigade. They are overflowing with volunteers at the moment, but I'll should be able to join in the winter, early next year at the latest.
It's OK, I'll have the time to get used to morning jogs I guess.

Bit late on this one. Busy week at work. We're at the main event now: Germany. We don't join our intrepid core force just yet, however...
***
The war arrived like a thunderclap.
NATO units were doing a summer exercise, something had become almost rote in the decades since the Iron Curtain had fallen over Europe, when the bolt fell. Confusion reigned supreme. Some units at first even believed this was a highly realistic, unannounced part of the exercise. When real rounds of artillery began crashing around them and men began to die, that mistaken belief was rapidly abandoned. The Soviets had gained near total operational surprise.
The only saving grace was the equally routine paranoia that gripped NATO forces when the Soviets conducted summer exercises (the cover for their invasion) themselves. When the Soviets rolled across the border, they found themselves tangling with strong, and alert, covering forces. Operational and Strategic surprise did not always translate to the tactical level. In the CENTAG zone, that meant bruising brushes with the 11th and 2nd Armored Cavalry regiments.
Chapter 3: Apache Pass
Forward Edge of the Battle Area. July 13th, 0600 hours.
1st Battalion, 15th Tank Regiment, 39th Motor Rifle Division

“That is the plan, comrades. Combat aviation goes in at 0600. Our friends in the VVS follows 5 minutes after that. Artillery begins on these marked targets at 0615. We are across the line of departure in strength by 0620 hours. Questions?”
Lieutenant Colonel Burobin looked around at his company commanders. Silence. Stony, determined stares.  He folded the map and lightly slapped it against his knee. The briefing was over.
“Very well. To your tanks, mount up.”
They had several kilometres to traverse to get to the assembly area, a large, forested hill, labelled as the Dorn Berg. Recon was already well forward and had reported apparently light enemy forces entering the valley, no doubt to block further advances. His primary objective was a town in the middle of the valley, called Mittleaschenbach, which had vital bridges over the muddy streams that dominated the approaches to, and through, the valley.  Seizing the town was key to creating manoeuvre room for the balance of the regiment. He had been tasked, as well, to take the next town (Hofaschenbach), if possible.
As Burobin climbed on top of his T-64, he thought over the situation. The first hours of the war had gone exceedingly well, better than they it should have. The lead units had been lower echelon units with equipment in the process of being phased out, which had apparently set off less alarms with the enemy than the shock units normally would. Forward forces had brushed away surprised NATO forces, many of which were still on their routine summer exercises. Where breakthroughs hadn’t been made, the enemy had to pull back due to a lack of ammunition. In theory they had created the ideal scenario for his force: the “meeting engagement.”
His mind turned to his immediate problem. The reports from regimental and divisional reconnaissance hinted that this window of opportunity was rapidly closing, if it was not already closed. They had no run-ins yet with the US so-called “armoured cavalry”, which he knew the Capitalists would put much faith in to hold, delay and destroy forces like his own. If he was the American, he thought grimly, this valley is where he would begin that delaying action. He was no fool and respected his opponents. If he realised the value of this terrain, he was assumed his counterparts did to. Where would they deploy? There were only two options, really…

The terrain was complex and canalized. Muddy streams would force movement down only a handful of viable alleys. Thick forested hills blocked massed vehicular movement or restricted it to small dirt paths. A small force on these pieces of terrain could savage him. Speed. Speed was key.  Without their air power, which regiment said would be negligible, the Americans could not hope to stop him. He did not share the Colonel’s belief that they were living under a ‘Red Sky.’ Not quite yet. Speed…speed was key. Even if it came at the cost of effective fire. Grab them by the belt…
His thoughts were interrupted, the sanctuary of his thoughts shattered by a loud, booming roar. He looked up just in time to see two fighters, their wings swept back, red starts prominent on their tail, streak overhead in tight formation. Hugging the earth, they dipped out of sight, the canopy of the trees visibly swaying. The preparatory strikes had begun. He keyed his microphone and signalled the Battalion to begin its march. Then he slid down into the turret, ‘buttoning up’ his hatch as he did so. 
***
Darting forward cautiously, Soviet BRDMs nose into the Mittleschenbach valley. Moments earlier, four “Hind” helicopters had passed overhead, crossing the valley swiftly before disappearing over the opposite hill. The reconnaissance men could not yet know it, but the Hinds were already engaging American forces which were advancing to take blocking positions. Like their grandfathers in IL-2s, they swooped low, strafing enemy personnel carriers, and firing rockets in salvos. Two Hinds equipped with wire-guided missiles attempted to hit heavier targets, but were repeatedly forced to break off their attacks by enemy anti-helicopter missiles.  


Some BRDMs briefly halt among the treeline at the base of the Dorn Berg, having finally spotted the enemy: personnel carriers advancing despite the Hinds, into the valley. They duly report these contacts and decide to halt in their present positions to set up observation posts. Anti-tank BRDMs push into Oberaschenbach, losing a vehicle to an unseen assailant as they break cover. A survivor swiftly reports the village devoid of the enemy. 

The Soviet helicopters initially press their attack, despite the missiles. The BRDMs can see their handiwork now, as the Americans press on, zig-zagging and deploying smoke to frustrate the Hind’s aim. A Hind is blotted out of the sky by a missile, whilst an American APC explodes in a fireball from a direct hit. Panicking, the destroyed Hind’s wingman breaks off his attack entirely. A second APC is destroyed by a rocket run a moment later. With the APCs are tanks, who also zig-zag and pop smoke. They fare much better, and slide into the trees that line the Linz Berg – Ulmenstein gap. The enemy are on decisive terrain, although it has cost them. Would it be enough?


Then the Migs arrive. Guided In by observation posts scattered around the valley, they scream in towards their pre-planned objectives, dropping cluster bombs on the towns that line the valley floor. Black smoke rises, evidencing their success.

Despite the seemingly powerful air assault, the picture being built up by the lead recon elements is grim. The Americans have boldly seized decisive terrain, locking down the two best routes into the valley. Judging by the burning BRDM, they were also supported by anti-tank missiles of some kind.
This was the situation which greeted the lead platoon of the 2/15th Tank Regiment as it entered the area of operations. They were met by one of the observation teams, who clambered on top of the lead T-64 and briefed the young (extremely young!) lieutenant. 

The lieutenant, wisely, if somewhat passively, decides to report the situation and hold for the rest of his company. He directs his tanks into the treeline, trusting even less than his battalion commander the assurances that the sky is Soviet.

The next tank platoon to arrive from the company has a more aggressive, more senior lieutenant. Seeing six T-64s and supporting anti-tank BRDMs, he urges an engagement by fire on the powerful blocking force across the valley. If the enemy forces strung between Linz Berg and Ulmenstein were not destroyed or reduced, the attack would falter. The logic is iron-clad, despite the immense risk and the long odds. At 0610 hours they conduct their combined attack.  The results are mixed. Gunnery is about even, despite the superior volume of fire the Soviets put out. Vehicles burn on both sides, and surviving T-64s pull back into the trees, their efforts spent for now. They leave two burning hulks, fires hissing away, as they do so. The surviving lieutenant, a bit alarmed at the enemy’s expert gunnery, urges his superior to hurry. A sharp rebuke - “Discipline, discipline, get off the air! Essential communications only!” – is his reward for his efforts.

Burobin, monitoring the engagement on his second radio, is disquieted. He was in column with the battalion’s attached MRC and had just crossed the line of departure. It sounded like he was going to get a hot reception. He unbuttons briefly, and is engulfed in the dust being kicked up by the thundering herd. Coughing, he cranes his head up momentarily. A gap in the dust gives him a brief sight of the morning sky…there! Screaming overhead are two flying cruciform-like shapes. Suddenly, a BMP explodes. A second shortly follows.
Sliding back into the turret, the Lt. Col hollers with such an urgency he fails to provide his callsign: “Air warning, air warning. Smoke and wheel right!” Thick, oily-black smoke blooms as more than 20 vehicles contribute to creating a smokescreen. They run the gauntlet, losing a few more vehicles in the process to both direct fire and air attack. The unit disperses into a small copse of trees, and the Shilkas deploy to defend the temporary harbour. The MRC’s air defence troops roll over the sides of their BMPs and attempt to engage the enemy air. It is uncertain what they accomplished.


In cover of the forests and pines near the Dorn Berg, Burobin counts heads and collects his thoughts. His second company was still on its way but was surely also under air attack at present time. The enemy clearly had won the race; the meeting engagement was rapidly turning into a deliberate attack. It mattered not: he would have to accept a high attrition in men and material to seize the objective if so. He clambered out of his tank and looked for Major Istmin, the rifle company leader. The Major was alive, though looking decidedly unwell. Doing his best to ignore the pale pallor on his subordinate’s face, Burobin ordered him to disperse the BMPs and hold for now. They will go in as a unit. Striding back to his command tank, he stops to speak to the nearby FO in his specialist MTLB. The artillery will have to redouble its efforts.
So it does. Guided on by the FOs, the Soviet artillery ponderously shifts its fire, striking enemy anti-tank vehicles that had taken hull down positions in a field of crops. Burobin requests for a repeat of the air strike, and to his shock, it is approved immediately. Regiment and Division, monitoring the situation, seem to have grasped the gravity of the situation.

Under this cover of this artillery, Burobin urges on his point company. He knows the order has condemned more of his young tankers to fiery fates, but they must inflict more casualties on the enemy platoon holding the opposite heights if the rest of the Battalion are to safely transit. They do not, however, push heedlessly over the exposed ground. Realising the dangerousness of the mission, and the omnipresence of enemy air, the Major opts to push his surviving tanks through the claustrophobic hiking paths that line the Dorn Berg. This pushes the tanks several hundred meters forward. The hope is that the closer engagement range swings the balance in favour of the massed firepower.

Time, the most precious resource the Soviets have, ticks away as the T-64s carefully pick their way down the path and fan out among the pines. The Major is patient. Not until every tank appears abreast of its partners does he order them to move forward.


The excellence and effectiveness of enemy fire continues to shock the Soviet tankers. Several T-64s are burning within minutes, almost every other has sustained several hits. The massed fires, however, are inexorable. The MRC’s weapons platoon add to the fire, pushing their BMPs up to fire off missiles. One is destroyed, but its wingman reaches out with its Spandrel missile, destroying an enemy tank.

Soon enough, most of the enemy vehicles between the Linz Berg and Ulmenstein are burning. All that remains is a single, unseen tank that sporadically fires. The timing is fortuitous, for Burobin's second tank company has arrived. 

Believing they are through; the Lt. Col immediately hurls his companies forward with an urgent word. Acknowledgements flood in. Then the enemy air power reappears, popping up over a neighbouring hill, their guns flashing. The Major commanding the second company is seen bailing out of his ruined tank, along with his crew.

ZSU fire chases the enemy planes, and one explodes in a fireball as it careens into the side of a hill several kilometres away. The ZSUs themselves, out of ammunition, pull back into the treeline. Unknown to Burobin, the SA-7s are long dead. Their BMP hit by an air-delivered missile whilst the crews displaced to new firing positions.
It is too late to stop now, however. The Battalion, what is left of it, lunges forward, the trailing platoons of T-64s stopping on occasion to deliver crashing volleys to any enemy targets they identify. 


The casualties are appalling. The Americans have put them in a vice. If they halt for any length of time to put down effective fire, they are smashed by American air and artillery. If they push forward, they find themselves moving into a storm of enemy direct fire. Despite destroying the enemy positions to their direct front, the battalion is punished by fire from secondary positions nearer Hofaschenbach. Burobin is faced with an unpalatable choice: butchery in place, or butchery forward. He chooses the latter, continuing to place his faith in speed.
Soviet airpower makes a belated reappearance, and even the score card, somewhat. Enemy direct fire slackens, but bereft of anti-air defences, it is merely pro-forma. By the time the battalion has passed through Oberaschenbach, it is reduced to 5 tanks and 5 BMPs. 

It is a miracle that Burobin is alive. Even more miraculously, the Major leading the first company is among the living as well.  Istmin burns along with his BMP, free from fear now. The MRCs only surviving officer is a young junior lieutenant. The other squads are not from his platoon. It matters not – what can be done except to accomplish their objective? Despair will not raise the dead.
“All callsigns, guide on me” The Lt. Col speaks a terse word. There is no acknowledgement save from the first company leader’s tank. The other units cannot send, only receive. He must trust they are following. The surviving T-64s fan out on a hill just opposite the Linz Berg. They halt briefly in good hulldown positions. Burobin spots the surviving enemy tank first. A volley crashes out from the line of T-64s. The M60 burns.

“We have no cover here. Follow me, we must head for that treeline. BMPs, break left and assault objective Fedor. Out.” Any idea of appropriate radio protocol died somewhere with his lead company. For the surviving "runners" in the unit there can be no doubt it is the Boss speaking. 
Spotting a gap in the trees and trusting that it heralded another wide trail through the forest, the T-64s break forward again. One explodes just as it begins to roll forward. It is unclear what destroys it. Nevertheless, the gamble pays off. A narrow, traversable path through the trees deposits the 4 remaining T-64s onto the flank of Mittleschenbach. They begin to fire systematically into the village, smashing suspected positions and covering the BMPs. 

The motor riflemen, for their part, also suffer in their final dash to the objective. Two BMPs are destroyed by American helicopters, skilfully flitting up and down behind a treeline somewhere to the left. The lieutenant, more frenzied by panic than determination, pushes forward. His men follow his example. They slow down, only briefly, to allow accurate cannon fire to be put down onto suspected positions. In one of the BMPs a sergeant orders his men to put down suppressive fires. The squad dutifully fire in staccato bursts through the firing ports. They know now who, or what, they are supposed to see. 

The American defenders, a rifle platoon, fight back viciously. The T-64s break cover and successfully rejoin their comrades in the village. Tank and BMP once more fight in close tandem. The order “dismount!” does not come until the town square is penetrated by surviving vehicles. Mittleschenbach is reduced to a charnel house as 125mms fire HEAT and HE into houses yards away. The Soviet riflemen are routinely forced to hurl themselves to the ground and duck into alleys to avoid the deadly overpressure from the high calibre cannons. Somehow, the shattered battalion manages to compel the defenders to retreat. A single American APC careens out of the village at 0655 hours, dipping into dead ground on the far side of town, before it motors away, out of sight. 

Any thought of pushing forward is out of the question. Even if Burobin’s shattered unit had the ammunition left to fight, they did not have the strength to advance. Even as the Soviets began to flatten Mittleschenbach, surviving OPs on the Dorn Berg report a platoon of enemy vehicles take blocking positions in the gardens and hedges at the forward edge of Hofaschenbach. The way forward had been closed, and leaving the safety of the town would only invite further air attack. The surviving vehicles circle the wagons as Burobin reports the objective clear and his casualties.
“Regiment will deploy behind the Dorn Berg and pass through your unit at 1300 hours. Assume and maintain the defence in your current locus” comes the response with calculated disinterest, squealing through the enemy’s interference.

On opposite sides of the FEBA, two counterparts, Colonels both, receive reports with some satisfaction. Casualties heavy, yes, but initial objectives met. 

Their drill and locker layouts will be up to scratch at least 😉

Ok, let's try this one on.  I am guessing the "pretty smart" folks you are talking to all went to some graduate strategic studies schools where Colin Gray is their god...maybe with some SAMS folks tossed in for flavor.  Well "I ain't no senators son" so I will give it a "best-shot".
I don't think escalation dominance exists as a viable or workable strategic military concept, or strategy - at least not in the modern era.  It is a "pipe dream" a unicorn with a 38 inch bust....weird, slightly erotic and pure fantasy.
So if I recall the term basically describes overmatch.  My own thoughts on those metrics: 
Parity - all things being equal, decision spaces are symmetrical and outcomes determined by chance as much as anything else.
Asymmetry - Your opponent is in a state of dilemma with respect to decision space and are forced to pick the "best bad".
Overmatch - You opponents decision space is irrelevant because all outcomes are the same.
That is a scale/spectrum with lots of sliding distance but to my mind lays out the strategic states with respect to conflict.  In my own terms, if warfare is vision/certainty, communication, negotiation and sacrifice - you basically take the opponents voice away by leave zero negotiation space and driving sacrifice to infinity.
So in this case we would be talking about the Russians being able to create a condition of strategic overmatch on the Ukraine...and this is simply not attainable.  Why?  Well:
- Russian strategic escalation is bounded and restricted externally by the West.  If the West/US had stayed neutral, or did not exist, Russia would have likely escalated already.  They talk a good game but they know that escalation against the West is a dead-hand game of chicken that no one wins and it is directly connected to the current war in the Ukraine.  The only way Russia achieves dominance in this area is if we fail to act.
- Conventional escalation in the form of a formal declaration of war and full mobilization is restricted internally and externally.  Internally, there is domestic pressure - and it is real, as Russia is tying itself in knots to not mobilize while pulling on every other resource it can...so bounded.  Then there is the possible Western reaction to full Russian mobilization..."Ok, Vlad, you want to raise a million man army...how about we give Ukraine 400 HIMARs?"  That is an external bounding; this war is not happening in an isolated bubble.
- Unconventional escalation.  Here the gun is pointing the other direction.  Ukraine could escalate unconventional warfare and the West could as well. This has all sorts of options from leveraging power brokers in the back field, to sabotage, to subversive warfare, to cyber/information.  These things are likely already happening but the escalation ladder is not in Russia's favour in this space, why?  Because they did the one thing they absolutely should not have done in thru this war - unify people against them while dividing their own.  Unconventional war relies a lot on internal divisions and this war has narrowed them in the West while widening them in the Russian sphere.
Finally, as to the term in the modern era...impossible. Why? Because tangled and relative rationality.  The USA has the largest military in the history of humanity - more destructive power than Ghengis or Alexander even taking into account population differences.  And the US has never been able to achieve "escalation dominance" in the modern age.  Terrorism and terrorist groups demonstrated this in spades.  In a modern entangled world completely stopping asymmetric escalation in other dimensions is impossible - it is the superpower dilemma of the 21st century; the only way to preserve the world is to destroy it.  
During GWOT it was AQ/ISIL that "escalated" and threatened to escalate all the way up to WMDs, if they could.  All the US hard power was completely dislocated by a tiny group that was using an idea, the internet and a shoe string budget to make attacks on the US homeland.  After a lot of effort we regained parity and even asymmetry against terror groups but we never achieved escalation dominance and it was dangerous to even think we could deter them through this strategy.'
My problem with Gray (and Clausewitz for that matter) is that these strategies always assume a rational actor and we know that in war those are hard to find.  Rationality becomes relative very quickly.  So the idea of - shooting each other when we have already jumped off the building together ("I will die but you first!") - makes perfect sense locally even though it looks insane to an outside observer.  Escalation dominance does not work on a suicide bomber, never will; they are already at the sacrifice infinity point.  Not saying Ukraine is suicidal; however, if driven to it, Ukraine will fight and escalate well past an outside rationality point - even if it means massive losses...because "it is better to die on your feet than live on your knees" short-circuits the foundational logic of escalation dominance as a strategic theory...and it is in play.
So what?  Well we have an escalation system in parity by my eyes.  Russia is bounded as I described but Ukraine is as well.  The west will only tolerate so much - for example Ukrainian terror groups active in Russia killing civilians is not going to fly with us.  Nor would giving Ukraine nuclear weapons as we fear if things get desperate enough for them to use them.  Ukraine has no mobilization escalation bounding, they are already there.  Conventionally we are slowly negotiating what strikes into Russia look like, but it is not zero.
Finally, I suspect what we are really talking about is comparative strategic options spaces.  And here Ukraine does not need to escalate, they need only sustain theirs, while Russia is doing a glorious job of collapsing their own.  There will come a point when Russia starts to think about irrational escalation as those options spaces collapse, even in the face of Western power...the trick is knowing where that point is and ensuring we get off this ride first.  I suspect it is the Russian land border...Crimea is a question mark.  But one second to midnight at a time....

Today I have re-posted all of the scenarios in my series "The 82nd Airborne in Normandy" and added the final three: "DeGlopper's Medal of Honor", "Le Motey", and "Amfreville - Strike Two!". The re-posting was necessitated by a renumbering of a portion of the series to place DeGlopper in the correct sequence and because I edited all the scenario text files to correct  spelling, grammar and numbering errors as well as revising a few of the Special Rules.

Unless stated otherwise in the Special Rules included with some of my scenarios, players should not pre-plot mortar or artillery fire on turn one when playing any of the scenarios.

This ends my 82nd Abn. series which has focused primarily on the fight to secure the La Fiere causeway and the town of Amfreville with a sidebar to the south to cover Lt. Col. Shanley's stand on Hill 30. There were equally important  actions going on east of the Merdert to secure St. Mere Eglise and hold it against German counter-attacks and the securing of the eastern end of the Chef-du-Point bridges and causeway. At this point I am retiring from scenario and map creation to redirect my time to completing modding an unfinished plastic model (Red Knight of Vienna), painting a few hundred 15mm samurai (I should life so long), playing some of my other favourite computer games - Silent Hunter III (modded), Samurai 2 Total War (modded), Scourge of War Waterloo (modded), Wings of Flanders Fields Between Heaven and Hell, CMFB, CMRT, CMFI ... too many and too little time left.. I may or may not get around to finishing reskinning the CMBN modular buildings and barns to look more Dutch.

My backing off from modding CMBN does not mean that I am backing off from playing what has become my favourite game. Indeed, I would be very pleased if any of you would play any of the H2H scenarios which I have created.
Happy gaming all.

welll.. it is!
 

Xi Jinping says:

 

wake up to 3 more pages on this thread almost all of which I could ignore as it is all irrelevant.  All caught up and it is only 6:30 am!  @LongLeftFlankthanks for bringing this back to topic. 😎

A further insight into the UKA artillery app
https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/kropyva-ukrainian-artillery-application-e5c6161b6c0a
P