Holien

Ok as we are talking about Elections PR Stunts this popped up and worth a read...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/05/05/putins-human-rights-council-accidentally-posts-real-crimean-election-results-only-15-voted-for-annexation/amp/
The article is from May 2014. I know I know going back a bit but when did the war start...
So for those thinking there was mass support for the annexation the actual figures don't back that up...
 
 
 
Anyway all a moot point as any Russian election is just a PR attempt to dupe the world...
 

This struck me at the start of the article..
 
So they make more from the crude and Ukraine is not targeting that production.
Certainly Russia is going to see more fuel shortages for its internal market but it is not clear cut that the drone attacks will do enough to shut down the energy market for Russia.
As the author says (he wrote article I guess before the 26th Jan) we will have to see how effective the repairs are.
 
I am hoping they are not as effective as Ukraine was in recovering from the attacks on their power grid.
It could be the smartest use of drones by Ukraine so far and perhaps have the biggest payback. (And Ukraine is already at genius level for use with the ships sunk...)
Fingers Crossed...

I read an interesting discussion with a Russian guy who had grown up in the USSR, with him being unable to understand how anyone would ever vote against whoever was in power. His thinking was that the president could order people to vote for him, and not doing so would be insubordination and get punished. And this worked all the way down the chain: officials at various levels, police, judiciary, election organisers, all follow their orders because not doing so would lead to punishment from above.
People tried to explain that in an established democracy it doesn't work like that. The fundamental difference is that (almost) everyone believes in the the rule of law. There are laws around how to hold fair elections, and anyone violating the laws to try and fix the result is very likely to face punishment. His counter was always "but why wouldn't the authorities just order people not to punish the rule breaking and punish the people trying to do things 'fairly'".  He couldn't seem to wrap his head around the idea that once there is a critical mass of people who follow the rule of law, anyone trying to break the law to fix an election is very much taking a big risk and on their own Anyone who might shield them from consequences becomes liable to consequences from higher up, up to an including the supreme court (or equivalent) and police who aren't under the power of politicians and protected from the consequences of following the law rather than the whims of the head of state.
So in an established democracy, enough people believe in the rule of law, following the law shields you from punishment, and anyone trying to subvert that is knowingly taking a risk that might well get them punished - even the people tyring to subvert the rule of law work on the assumption that the rule of law holds sway and that they are violating societal norms.
In Russia, from what this guy is saying, enough people believe that following orders from above  is what shields you from punishment, and following what the law says rather than what you are told to do is going to get you punished. Trying to follow the law and disobey the wishes of the president is what is violating societal norms, and is the same kind of conspiratorial risk-taking in Russia that trying to steal an election would be in an established democracy.
It was an interesting insight into his mindset that he just couldn't make the mental leap to understand how a society might function where everyone (or close enough to everyone to count) valued following the law more than following orders, and that was what protected people. He always fell back on "but what if someone punished them for that".
So yeah, democracy does kind of require a society built on the foundation  that democracy works and the rule of law reigns, and it is a self-sustaining system that functions very differently to the culture that the USSR and Russia had (and probably had before the USSR as well form what I gather)
 

We actually have no idea what Putin’s real base of genuine support is or is not.  First off he controls any and all “polls” either directly or indirectly so trying to gauge who really supports him, who is pretending simply to avoid trouble and who opposes but is afraid to say anything, in real terms is basically impossible to do inside Russia, let alone outside looking in.  “Look a bunch of people lined up to support him” is not a viable basis for deductions.
Second problem is that support, in a functioning democracy, is founded on a basis of “informed decision”.  This means that all sides can spin, argue and slant but in the end the news media and objective journalism is supposed to provide a voter with a range of diverging viewpoints and facts.  Voters can then decide who to support, or not support based on their own personal perception and understanding.  This is damned hard to do in a functioning liberal democracy; however, in Russia it is likely impossible.  Putin controls the mainstream media - we have heard endless stories of dissenters being arrested or charged, hell he passed laws making criticism of this war illegal.  He also has a lot of control within social media, suppressing sites and flooding the RUSNet with stooges.  We have seen enough outright lies and insane claims out of Russian media in the last two years to know that the average Russian simply is not able to access much beyond what Putin wants them to see and hear.  Under these conditions “real support” is nearly impossible because no alternative facts, ideas or even options are ever presented.
Finally, as our Ukrainian friends like to point out continually, the average Russian is poorly educated, poor wealth and largely ignorant…this is why they keep signing up for this war.  To now accuse these people of “knowingly supporting Putin” as if they have access to alternatives is short-sighted at best.  Further, Kraze’s continued insistence to call every living Russian on the planet as vicious war loving murders is not only disingenuous, it treads dangerously close to genocidal narratives that have no place on what is supposed to be a rational objective forum.  We know Russians opposed this war, a few hundred thousand ran away.  Others are resisting passively.  We also know that many really do not even understand what this war is or is not because Putin is preventing them from seeing any truth but his own.  We also know some Russians also buy into this war and Putin fully even knowing the reality.  In the end we are going to have to deal with all of them in some form or another because as much as some people are acting out emotionally here, we are not going to wipe Russia off the face of the earth and salt the ground on their mass graves.
So be pissed off, but do not come here and promote outright disinformation in some sort of weird attempt to get us to all buy into some “every Russian is evil and must die” nonsense.  There are all sorts of sites on the internet where people on both sides can engage in that emotional orgy, but it should not be here.  The second this forum becomes one of those places, I for one, am out.
 

As a wise man has already mentioned we (all of us outside of the Kremlin) have no idea what the real turn out was...
But we can clearly see that it wasn't an election. It was a PR exercise...
 
 

As a wise man has already mentioned we (all of us outside of the Kremlin) have no idea what the real turn out was...
But we can clearly see that it wasn't an election. It was a PR exercise...
 
 

I can fully understand and sympathize with their positions and sentiments.  But lies are lies, no matter who is pushing them.  We either try and hold onto objective truth or we can just become another echo chamber showing one sided war porn and offering weak analysis.  We are challenged enough to avoid our own biases without completely abandoning what this entire thread was supposed to do in the first place.  I oppose disinformation no matter the source.

As a wise man has already mentioned we (all of us outside of the Kremlin) have no idea what the real turn out was...
But we can clearly see that it wasn't an election. It was a PR exercise...
 
 

Considering that he basically: controls the media, makes real opposition disappear (or kills them outright), has central control of internal security who are arresting anyone who even has a whiff of real dissent, and anyone running against him is basically approved by him - Russia isn't even close to a functioning democracy at this point anymore than North Korea is.  To come here claiming otherwise is disinformation of the worst sort.

BS of the highest order.  You have zero proof of this and just about no one who knows anything about election processes outside of Russia agrees with you.

Latest Perun video and nothing we don't know, Russian Arms Exports are in the toilet being flushed down the swanny...
Quite a good analysis and some detail about the deals with India and China.
 
 

BBC had a page on Macron and his volt face...
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68575251
 

Latest Perun video and nothing we don't know, Russian Arms Exports are in the toilet being flushed down the swanny...
Quite a good analysis and some detail about the deals with India and China.
 
 

Yet more? 
 

Latest Perun video and nothing we don't know, Russian Arms Exports are in the toilet being flushed down the swanny...
Quite a good analysis and some detail about the deals with India and China.
 
 

The drone, launched allegedly from Odesa oblast hit not operational Mi-8 helicopter in unrecognized Transnistria, Tiraspol airfield. 
Transnistria had 5 Mi-8 and 6 Mi-24 helicopters, but as claimed Moldova they are all in poor conditions.
So, what a sense to strike broken helicopter it's unclear - either this was "false flag", but what consequenses after this? Transnistria will attack Odesa? It's ridiculous. Or this was probe of Budanov to see reraction. About year ago unknown drone already attacked some object in Transnistria, but nothing apocaliptic happened.   
 

I don't have a Telegraph sub so I can't read the article but while Macron's shift is surprising...LePen's is far more surprising still. If I were a betting man, I would throw some kopecks on the square that says that the French government came into possession of some information regarding Moscow's efforts to undermine the government that shocked and that information exposed the LePen and her cohorts in such a way that they had to make a swift and decisive choice. 
Watch this space. 
 

"Liberty for Russia Legion" and some pro-Ukrainain Chechen unit took over control Gor'kovskoye village on the border in Belgorod oblast
Russian milbloggers in hysteria write "this is Photoshop, because since 2018 there is no Gor'kovskoye village settlement (like has written on the table, as if teared off from administrative building), it was transfrmed into Gor'kovskoye village territory (it includes five tiny villages around and Gor'kovskoye is an administrative center), so the table in hands of LRL fighters either old or just photoshoped. Of course, when video was released they came to next study - anger. 
 

Russian officials claimed 39 UKR UAVs tried to attack nine Russian regions, including Moscow oblast. Of course, "all were shot down/supressed". As we can see above - oil refinery successfully shot down all UAVs buy itself. 
Here is attack of UKR UAV on Domodedovo airport near Moscow - it hit at some storage facility
 

This really helped me understand the Russian pyramid problem. 
Also touched on why Ukraine is protecting its younger generation from recruitment. 
Imo worth the 30 minutes watching as he explains the issues really well.
Ties into Russian increase of invalids...

Operation in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts still under a fog of war. 
Today we had only free-Russian fighters "presentation" of 25 captured enemies, among them was platoon commander of 45th engineer-sapper brigade of Western military district, which unit set minefield, was attacked and destroyed. 
Free-Russia fighters wrote, Russian aviation is dropping many KABs/FABs on own villages and settlements, and its number is more that was in Bakhmut.  
Russian milbliggers became more pessimistic (therea are no more reports about completely repelled attack) - they report  about fierce clashes, especially in Kozinka and Spodariushyno. Graivoron is under artillery shelling. Belgorod is under periodical MLRS strikes and... under fallings of Pantsyr S1 launch stages. For today more than a dozen buildings got damages, were destroyed and damaged more than two dozens of cars
  

Free-Russia fighter from "Liberty for Russia Legion" checks captured Russian recons in Belgorod or Kursk oblast - Typhoon-K MRAP, using by recon brigades is in the cadre.

Russian Volunteer Corps uses captured BTR-82A to fire on the enemy position
 

The story with 250 US M117 APCs, which US offered in the end of 2022, but it's turned out they need in repair, upgrade and additional arming with AGLs, so terms of delivering was shifted on 2025, at last came to finish. These APCs now arriving to Ukriane. First units, which got thm on armament became 425th separate assault battalion "Skala" ("Rock")
 

About 1-1,5 month ago video, how Russian "tankodesant" tried to burst in UKR trench on Kreminna direction. Three soldiers of 1st National Guard Presidental "Bureviy" brigade destroyed the tank and enemy infantry in the trench fight, one Russian surrendered
 

It's awfully close to what the US experienced in 2002 in the Millenium Challenge wargame, where the Red Team used an armada of small speedboats to get inside the pickets and first spot all the ships to hit them with cruise missiles, then later used more small speedboats on suicide attacks.  The Red Team sank 16 ships. If you don't have to find suicidal volunteers to drive the motorboats, it's easier to put more of them on the water to overwhelm the defenses.  The Navy's first response to the Red Team win was denial.  Not denial of the motorboats the ability to get through, but denial that it  was a valid and effective tactic.
As for the detection problem that he describes, I suspect the problem is worse than he describes.  It's not obvious that the US has really solved it with technology, particularly since there have been a few high profile major collisions at sea not all that long ago.  They depend a lot on the age old Mk I Eyeball all around the ship, and use further out ships and aircraft to extend the range of the eyeballs.  It's why big ships have historically traveled in fleets with smaller "sacrificial" ships spread out around them.  I've seen various systems for repelling the little motorboats (some of which depend on them having people in them) but not a lot of detail on detection systems, which I suspect are still hard for everybody.
I'm not a radar person, but a lot of the same things apply in the optical.  He doesn't go into technical details, but I suspect part of why the surface clutter problem is reduced at longer range is because the size of resolution elements gets bigger as you go farther (same angle per element, farther away), so it gets averaged over each whole element.  Plus the smaller reflected signals may be below a set detection threshold.  That all makes the screen look clearer at a some longer distance, but if the target you're looking for is down in the same size range and radar reflectivity as the clutter, it's also going to get averaged down and you're still not going to see it when it's far away.  The most effective way to see the little boats far out is going to be with a picket of helicopters (or now drones) that fly around and watch the sea far enough out to spot them from above at what is relatively short range for the pickets.