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Holien

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  1. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    UKR soldier in anti-thermal sight poncho. By feedback from soldiers it really masks from thermal sights unveling and they several times could approach to enemy positions in the night unspotted until the last moment. Main issues - the fabric is too rustles during crawling and it damn hot in this poncho. 

  2. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The work of pyrotechnicians of State Emergency Service this morning in Kyiv - they loaded an unexploded Kh-101 warhead, moved it out of the city and blew up. You can watch a process. Settlers of this house can celebrete own second birthday
     
  3. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Kinophile
    This war showed many things, which considered before as impossible became real. There were several cases of cruise missiles downning with HMGs. Yes, if the missile flies with a speed 200 m/s under 90 degrees from your position, your chances are almost zero. But if missile incoming directly to you, your chances raise, especially when your HMG equipped with thermal sight. All question - to give mobile group a proper engagement point. Mobile groups as usual had PDA with "Virazh" AD info system, transmitting trajectories of missiles, so the group can move and take proper position. 
    Also, pay attention, on this video you can see only HMG shooting and missile explosion, no incoming SAM, chasing the cruise missile and hitting it. 
    Scheme of today's attack

  4. Like
    Holien got a reaction from rocketman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Looks like the AD did a good job if true?
    Hopefully it didn't disturb our friends in Ukraine?
  5. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's because the attack was all directed on Kyiv with strongest AD shield in Ukraine. If each city had the same protection, the total result would be like this.
    It was at 5:00 I heard two Patriots launches, then heavy boom so windows shaken. It was Kinzhal or Iskander interception - it came from NE direction, were my district is located, so interception of ballistic missiles add some adrenaline %) Then, since 5 minutes one more (aero)ballistic target was destroyed, but slightly further. Then I heard 2-3 distant booms - all other missiles flew from western direction and were intercepted there - it's too far from me. 
     But anyway, several Kh-101 were intercepted over the city and hit the ground in residental areas  - 12 citizens were wounded. Damaged several buildings, one workshop, kindergarden, church, local power substation. Several cars burnt. 
    Here fragment of missile impacted on the street not far from one of specific object %) and damaged buildings around - probably warhead detonated. 


    Here of course "underground command bunker was destroyed" )))

    People of this house were really lucky...

    ... Because warhead of intercepted Kh-101 fell down directly near the building and didn't explode

    Of course, Russian MoD made a statement "the strike, including Kinzhal missiles was performed on decision making centers - all targets were hit". Ok. 390 millions USD to nowhere. Rich country...
  6. Like
    Holien got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok as we are talking about Elections PR Stunts this popped up and worth a read...
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/05/05/putins-human-rights-council-accidentally-posts-real-crimean-election-results-only-15-voted-for-annexation/amp/
    The article is from May 2014. I know I know going back a bit but when did the war start...
    So for those thinking there was mass support for the annexation the actual figures don't back that up...
     
     
     
    Anyway all a moot point as any Russian election is just a PR attempt to dupe the world...
     
  7. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Czech Republic already supplied 300 000 artillery shells. This claimed Yan Lipavsky, minister of foreign afafirs of this country.
    In own turn Ukrainian representatives says this number will allow to close sharp deficite for next month and we hope further supplies will grow up. Ukraine now produce 122 mm and 152 mm ammunition and from second half of 2024 will launch produce of 155 mm shells
    Also WSJ claimed Ukraine month ago launched serial production of unnamed missile with 400 miles range. 
     
  8. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Unrelevant Russian TG writes on Engels-2 airfield in result of UKR strike slightly damaged two Tu-95 strategic bombers and four servicemen of airfield personnel were killed. This TG often considered in Ukriane as our PsyOps in Russian informatin space, so let it be, until satellite images appear. 
    Though, locals write there wer four explosions - allegedly three drones were shot down, but fourth hit airfield and they have seen that something burnt on the territory of airbase.
  9. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This chap is doing fairly decent videos trying to explain attacks and the context of them.
    His content on the incursion into Russia has been useful for me to understand exactly where the videos have been taken. 
    His analysis is not military grade but by adding maps and context it is useful, to me anyway...
    Looks like Russia might have lost some long range bombers? 
     
  10. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Gotta be honest, I am not even sure why this is still a topic of debate.  The posters who have come out and claimed that the last Russian election was “pure as new driven snow” do so with an agenda of heaping as much responsibility and culpability for this war onto the Russian population as possible.  Bizarrely, this means voicing support for the “democratic” process in Russia because it shows what they want it too - everyone in Russia hates Ukraine and supports this war.  We have seen zero actual evidence that this election was anything but a sham in the tradition of the NK election process, beyond the rantings of some very angry (old, I am guessing) Ukrainian men.  They are justified in that anger but not justified in pushing disinformation about the Russian election process, in my opinion.
    We have seen and heard from both mainstream news media, and my own federal government that this last election was a complete sham.  The basic mechanisms for an open and fair election are missing or suppressed by the incumbent.  This was not a transparent mandate from the people, it was Putin voting for himself…and surprise…he won!
    So what?  Well it basically means that we have little actual insight into how much Russian’s really support (or not) Putin, nor do we really have insight on support for this war based on this last bit of theatre.  We do know that it is not zero, but it is also not “110%”.  Nor has it led to answering the real question: how does support turn into opposition?  Instead we get the usual pre-genocidal nonsense of “only good Russian is a dead one” and hand wringing from the sidelines.
  11. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This chap is doing fairly decent videos trying to explain attacks and the context of them.
    His content on the incursion into Russia has been useful for me to understand exactly where the videos have been taken. 
    His analysis is not military grade but by adding maps and context it is useful, to me anyway...
    Looks like Russia might have lost some long range bombers? 
     
  12. Like
    Holien got a reaction from CAZmaj in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok as we are talking about Elections PR Stunts this popped up and worth a read...
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/05/05/putins-human-rights-council-accidentally-posts-real-crimean-election-results-only-15-voted-for-annexation/amp/
    The article is from May 2014. I know I know going back a bit but when did the war start...
    So for those thinking there was mass support for the annexation the actual figures don't back that up...
     
     
     
    Anyway all a moot point as any Russian election is just a PR attempt to dupe the world...
     
  13. Like
    Holien got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This struck me at the start of the article..
     
    So they make more from the crude and Ukraine is not targeting that production.
    Certainly Russia is going to see more fuel shortages for its internal market but it is not clear cut that the drone attacks will do enough to shut down the energy market for Russia.
    As the author says (he wrote article I guess before the 26th Jan) we will have to see how effective the repairs are.
     
    I am hoping they are not as effective as Ukraine was in recovering from the attacks on their power grid.
    It could be the smartest use of drones by Ukraine so far and perhaps have the biggest payback. (And Ukraine is already at genius level for use with the ships sunk...)
    Fingers Crossed...
  14. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I am hoping this will be the case and the Western Powers can't stop Ukraine from using home grown weapons doing whatever they wish..
    In fact I think Macron might even be fully behind this now to end the war quickly...
    As I keep asking "ARE WE THERE YET!!!!"
    God do I hope so....
  15. Upvote
    Holien reacted to chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not really a radio grog but I've taken a few E&M classes...
    Back in the day, most of the internet wasn't encrypted, either.  It cost computing power to do that, and it's relatively recent that everything travels with TLS/SSL.
    Most of the drones on both sides seem to be either consumer drones or built with consumer parts, and there has mostly not been a lot of incentive to make the video feeds encrypted.  Strong encryption requires computing power, and that takes energy from the battery that could be used to fly longer.  And at the start of the drone war it's likely that that neither side had a lot of people or equipment available to eavesdrop on drone transmissions.  March 2002 was like the beginnings of WWI aviation where enemies could just wave at each other, or maybe fire a pistol.  
    Even adding some relatively weak encryption (that maybe requires less compute) would probably be sufficient for tactical security as long as the keys are unique and random for every flight - it only has to be secure against being broken in an hour or so to keep eavesdroppers from seeing what it's doing in realtime.  A reasonably capable attacker could record all the encrypted signals and break them later to look for patterns, but that doesn't help them dodge any FPV right now.
  16. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This struck me at the start of the article..
     
    So they make more from the crude and Ukraine is not targeting that production.
    Certainly Russia is going to see more fuel shortages for its internal market but it is not clear cut that the drone attacks will do enough to shut down the energy market for Russia.
    As the author says (he wrote article I guess before the 26th Jan) we will have to see how effective the repairs are.
     
    I am hoping they are not as effective as Ukraine was in recovering from the attacks on their power grid.
    It could be the smartest use of drones by Ukraine so far and perhaps have the biggest payback. (And Ukraine is already at genius level for use with the ships sunk...)
    Fingers Crossed...
  17. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ref The Invisible Ukrainian Navy
    Seababies are very easy to move overland into a new AO... 
     
  18. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ref economic grind:
     
     
  19. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok as we are talking about Elections PR Stunts this popped up and worth a read...
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/05/05/putins-human-rights-council-accidentally-posts-real-crimean-election-results-only-15-voted-for-annexation/amp/
    The article is from May 2014. I know I know going back a bit but when did the war start...
    So for those thinking there was mass support for the annexation the actual figures don't back that up...
     
     
     
    Anyway all a moot point as any Russian election is just a PR attempt to dupe the world...
     
  20. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This struck me at the start of the article..
     
    So they make more from the crude and Ukraine is not targeting that production.
    Certainly Russia is going to see more fuel shortages for its internal market but it is not clear cut that the drone attacks will do enough to shut down the energy market for Russia.
    As the author says (he wrote article I guess before the 26th Jan) we will have to see how effective the repairs are.
     
    I am hoping they are not as effective as Ukraine was in recovering from the attacks on their power grid.
    It could be the smartest use of drones by Ukraine so far and perhaps have the biggest payback. (And Ukraine is already at genius level for use with the ships sunk...)
    Fingers Crossed...
  21. Upvote
    Holien reacted to TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I read an interesting discussion with a Russian guy who had grown up in the USSR, with him being unable to understand how anyone would ever vote against whoever was in power. His thinking was that the president could order people to vote for him, and not doing so would be insubordination and get punished. And this worked all the way down the chain: officials at various levels, police, judiciary, election organisers, all follow their orders because not doing so would lead to punishment from above.
    People tried to explain that in an established democracy it doesn't work like that. The fundamental difference is that (almost) everyone believes in the the rule of law. There are laws around how to hold fair elections, and anyone violating the laws to try and fix the result is very likely to face punishment. His counter was always "but why wouldn't the authorities just order people not to punish the rule breaking and punish the people trying to do things 'fairly'".  He couldn't seem to wrap his head around the idea that once there is a critical mass of people who follow the rule of law, anyone trying to break the law to fix an election is very much taking a big risk and on their own Anyone who might shield them from consequences becomes liable to consequences from higher up, up to an including the supreme court (or equivalent) and police who aren't under the power of politicians and protected from the consequences of following the law rather than the whims of the head of state.
    So in an established democracy, enough people believe in the rule of law, following the law shields you from punishment, and anyone trying to subvert that is knowingly taking a risk that might well get them punished - even the people tyring to subvert the rule of law work on the assumption that the rule of law holds sway and that they are violating societal norms.
    In Russia, from what this guy is saying, enough people believe that following orders from above  is what shields you from punishment, and following what the law says rather than what you are told to do is going to get you punished. Trying to follow the law and disobey the wishes of the president is what is violating societal norms, and is the same kind of conspiratorial risk-taking in Russia that trying to steal an election would be in an established democracy.
    It was an interesting insight into his mindset that he just couldn't make the mental leap to understand how a society might function where everyone (or close enough to everyone to count) valued following the law more than following orders, and that was what protected people. He always fell back on "but what if someone punished them for that".
    So yeah, democracy does kind of require a society built on the foundation  that democracy works and the rule of law reigns, and it is a self-sustaining system that functions very differently to the culture that the USSR and Russia had (and probably had before the USSR as well form what I gather)
     
  22. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We actually have no idea what Putin’s real base of genuine support is or is not.  First off he controls any and all “polls” either directly or indirectly so trying to gauge who really supports him, who is pretending simply to avoid trouble and who opposes but is afraid to say anything, in real terms is basically impossible to do inside Russia, let alone outside looking in.  “Look a bunch of people lined up to support him” is not a viable basis for deductions.
    Second problem is that support, in a functioning democracy, is founded on a basis of “informed decision”.  This means that all sides can spin, argue and slant but in the end the news media and objective journalism is supposed to provide a voter with a range of diverging viewpoints and facts.  Voters can then decide who to support, or not support based on their own personal perception and understanding.  This is damned hard to do in a functioning liberal democracy; however, in Russia it is likely impossible.  Putin controls the mainstream media - we have heard endless stories of dissenters being arrested or charged, hell he passed laws making criticism of this war illegal.  He also has a lot of control within social media, suppressing sites and flooding the RUSNet with stooges.  We have seen enough outright lies and insane claims out of Russian media in the last two years to know that the average Russian simply is not able to access much beyond what Putin wants them to see and hear.  Under these conditions “real support” is nearly impossible because no alternative facts, ideas or even options are ever presented.
    Finally, as our Ukrainian friends like to point out continually, the average Russian is poorly educated, poor wealth and largely ignorant…this is why they keep signing up for this war.  To now accuse these people of “knowingly supporting Putin” as if they have access to alternatives is short-sighted at best.  Further, Kraze’s continued insistence to call every living Russian on the planet as vicious war loving murders is not only disingenuous, it treads dangerously close to genocidal narratives that have no place on what is supposed to be a rational objective forum.  We know Russians opposed this war, a few hundred thousand ran away.  Others are resisting passively.  We also know that many really do not even understand what this war is or is not because Putin is preventing them from seeing any truth but his own.  We also know some Russians also buy into this war and Putin fully even knowing the reality.  In the end we are going to have to deal with all of them in some form or another because as much as some people are acting out emotionally here, we are not going to wipe Russia off the face of the earth and salt the ground on their mass graves.
    So be pissed off, but do not come here and promote outright disinformation in some sort of weird attempt to get us to all buy into some “every Russian is evil and must die” nonsense.  There are all sorts of sites on the internet where people on both sides can engage in that emotional orgy, but it should not be here.  The second this forum becomes one of those places, I for one, am out.
     
  23. Like
    Holien got a reaction from LuckyDog in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As a wise man has already mentioned we (all of us outside of the Kremlin) have no idea what the real turn out was...
    But we can clearly see that it wasn't an election. It was a PR exercise...
     
     
  24. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As a wise man has already mentioned we (all of us outside of the Kremlin) have no idea what the real turn out was...
    But we can clearly see that it wasn't an election. It was a PR exercise...
     
     
  25. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I can fully understand and sympathize with their positions and sentiments.  But lies are lies, no matter who is pushing them.  We either try and hold onto objective truth or we can just become another echo chamber showing one sided war porn and offering weak analysis.  We are challenged enough to avoid our own biases without completely abandoning what this entire thread was supposed to do in the first place.  I oppose disinformation no matter the source.
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