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Holien

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Posts posted by Holien

  1. 10 hours ago, Offshoot said:

    UK MoD saying that the Russian A-50 fleet is likely grounded

    It will be interesting to see what options that opens for Ukraine.

    It could be more Russian planes shot down if they still want to risk flying without an eye in the sky to watch over them.

    I am hoping it opens a vulnerability that Ukraine ready to exploit.

  2. 47 minutes ago, squatter said:

    Is this a forum for only those who blindly believe in inevitable Ukrainian victory, no matter what their eyes tell them?

    Hmmmm I think you need a new set of eyes...

    What I see is Ukraine still fighting and doing immense damage to Russia be it loss of men, hardware or industrial machines.

    As long as Ukraine has the will and resources to continue doing this Russia will never "win".

    Just look at Afghanistan for an example where the will to continue fighting has out stayed the ability of those attempting to change the country. 

    Why is that model not possible for Ukraine? 

  3. 37 minutes ago, squatter said:

    Have you both considered that what the single beleaguered toehold Ukraine has managed to cling onto at Krynky is actually evidence of how hard it is for them to cross this river in any significant force?

    Hmmm now you have finally admitted it is possible, your previous statement said absolutely impossible. 

    No one is saying it's easy, but you said it is impossible yet Ukrainian forces are proving you wrong. So why were you wrong?

    Let's see if and when Russia removes the bridgehead. If it was that easy Russia would have done so already. 

    If it was that well fortified Ukrainian forces would have failed to establish a bridgehead. 

  4. 16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    Caution Germany became a locomotive of military aid, France, who wanted "to allow Putin to save his face" now allowed own SOF and other units to cross Ukrainian border

    The Trump Effect?

    Europe is upping its game...

    Long may it last...

    I truly hope Ukraine can hold on and the aid truly arrives in time.

  5. 56 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    we have 3 100 % confirmed, 2 with high probability confirmed, 2 allegedly confirmed by COSPAS marks and rest 4 just unverified claims

    Thanks for keeping us grounded.

    It will be interesting to see if can get confirmation of accurate numbers.

    I guess without pilots ejecting we can't rely on COSPAS and if they go into the sea no satellite proof possible.

    Just maybe in months time obituaries of the pilots if they pop up on social media.

  6. 1 hour ago, squatter said:

    sustaining any scale of operations across a massive water obstacle with no permanent crossings in a near-peer environment is effectively impossible. 

    Hmmm

    Any scale of operation?

    Would you like to take a crack at explaining how Ukraine has managed to maintain such a bridgehead which has been in existence for months?

     

  7. 52 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

    If 10 is correct it is interesting that they weren't running with a full complement of specialists (10-11) by the looks of it. I read somewhere that Ukraine had claimed Russia operates nine A50s in rotation around Ukraine, so it's possible they were already suffering personnel shortages, especially after losing an A50 in January. It can only be worse now.

    I just checked AWACs to see what crew would be needed just to get an idea...

    Quote

    The Crew. In order to operate the complex equipment on an AWACS, the E-3A has a crew of minimum 15 drawn from a variety of branches and trades, all of whom are extensively trained in their respective roles. The maximum crew the E-3A can accommodate is 33. The total number depends on the mission.

    So your right seems like they were a 3rd down on crew and the crew they had 50% were Majors, sure seems like they might have problems getting trained folk as crew...

  8. 6 minutes ago, Kraft said:

    Case in point, russians denying civilian massacrers in his interviews, which was not challenged.

    Hmmm I think he was fairly clear off camera about his views and he was interviewing folk with guns so he was never going to challenge them strongly, especially as he got quite a bit of hostility towards him.

    I found it interesting that Wagner were operating ahead of the Russian forces in Kyiv and his assertion that there was no killing blatantly untrue.

    So from my POV it was worth watching. The details I picked up just watching the images we're worth it.

    YMMV

  9. Talking as we have been about real journalism I managed to watch this available in UK on ITV.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/19/uk-documentary-listens-to-both-sides-on-ukraines-frontline-with-russia

    YouTube promo above.

    He got access to the Russian side and it isn't Russian BS propaganda but does interview those fighting for Russia and the separatist.

    He even gets into "Sherwood Forest" just after it was taken by Russian forces. He sees the aftermath of the rout of one of the Russian collapses.

    The interviews with a couple of the civilians are worth watching, especially the crazy / lovable large lady who nearly kidnapped him.

    No stunning information but it kinda of backs up (I hate to say) the Capt pov that it might be better for Ukraine to cut Donbass loose.

    An interviewed Russian doctor sums it up war destroys everything. - Russian medical care not great but interesting to see a "field hospital".

    Not sure of distribution outside of the UK, but if you do get a chance to watch it, I think it's worth it.

     

  10. 33 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

    But maybe I am wrong somewhere in this reasoning, or the Ukrainians surprise me with something. Hopefully they will. 

    I hope so, the Glide Bombs seemed to be the key in breaking the Ukraine defences.

    The loss / reduction of artillery to break up attacks didn't help.

     

  11. On 2/1/2023 at 7:38 PM, panzermartin said:

    Probably this war won't be won on western equipment alone but how many personnel Ukraine will have left in the end. 

    We are bashing Russia for sending ill prepared troops in human wave style assaults but I haven't seen  mentioning that a lot of UKR troops were lost in encircled traps like in Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Soledar, Bakhmut etc while they could have withdrawn to fight another day with better chances. 

    On the contrary RU has shown much more preservance reflexes(at least in defense) , pulling out of unfavorable situations instead of fighting to the last man. I understand the different mentality of someone defending his homeland but it seems these "no step back" decisions are coming from above.

    A lot men have left Ukraine as well. And a lot have deserted to the east or joined the DPRs and LPRs and some videos of enforced recruitment have been circulating lately. How many can Ukraine sacrifice and how many losses can the foreign volunteers replace as the war widens. 

     

     

     

    @Grigb A post from Panzer Martin a year ago after Bakhmut.

    He has form...

    Just FYI

    😉

    Hey maybe he will be right one day...

  12. 3 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

    But the Ukrainians can

    Nope and they won't have to with the right support (ammo, equipment, ISR and airsupport) and training, but alas this year will not be the year when all the stars will be aligned.

    Ukraine needs to survive this turbulent year and if the American situation improves then maybe next year.

    The continued damage to Russian control of Crimea and their rear areas (manufacturing, petrol, gas) production will cause Russia serious issues that might bring down the house of cards...

  13. 6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

    Biden’s admin had almost a year where they could have done almost anything they wanted in terms of aid… but they didn’t.

    Ahhh the beauty of hindsight...

    Do you realise how difficult it is to do stuff in government and you are blaming them for not doing it all in one year....

    What a joke....

  14. 11 minutes ago, Rokko said:

    fact that UKR is basically cut off from foreign assistance and is likely going to be for the foreseeable future does not help in this matter

    Hmm that's a fact huh? What about Europe, Australia we've cut them off?

     

    13 minutes ago, Rokko said:

    RU has been running circles around UKR in terms of force generation

    Ahhh Russia recruitment from Africa and Nepal is running rings around Ukraine, nice to know...

  15. 10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    So now an industrial complex that has been focused on big, expensive and few, has to design counters for small, many and cheap - this outta be just great

    Yep, the RN with it's two new white elephants have arrived just in time.

    Mind you easier to defend them when they are sat in dry dock being repaired as they can't even be trusted to sail to Norway.

     

  16. 16 minutes ago, hcrof said:

    This video shows drones almost making 90degree turns only a few hundred meters from its target. 

    It looks inefficient but it clearly works, does anyone know more?

    I think it is more likely one of these or a mixture of sea state and currents / wind which makes it hard to handle, that and command delays with the controls so not perfect handling as we might expect.

    We need a naval grog who plays with remote control replicas on boating ponds.

     

  17. 3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    That's pretty much all this thread needs to know.  So let's move back on topic.

    Steve

    I appreciated the diversion as it was useful to understand the possible risks.

    Thanks for letting it divert a tad...

    Lots can happen from now to November so it is not certain the Orange liar can win.

    The good out of this is that Europe seems to still be engaged and supporting Ukraine and will realise that they might have to go it alone.

    Ukraine now needs to cut it's cloth to what they have on hand and if we can keep on supplying enough long range missiles and perhaps new airframes the corrosive warfare can continue to hurt Russia even if the possibility of regaining terrority is less likely.

  18. 13 minutes ago, Fernando said:

    1. If you don't have enough information, so you move basically in the dark, your move is not bold, but  reckless.

     

    Hmmm you think that battlefield commanders have a fully illuminated battlefield? 

    Even with today's battles with modern ISR it is hard to bring all that information accurately together in a way that is easily understandable.

    It certainly was not possible before now, so by your statement every commander was reckless?

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