IMHO

It's all intertwined. Language, economy, political views... The West and a higher proportion of Center would have really won with EU affiliation just like the East was/is woven into the Russian economical fabrics. As I said a Ukrainian friend of mine who had access to a lot of confidential data predicted the crisis a year and a half before it actually happened. He specifically was talking about the diverging economical interests, growing dislike between two parts of the country among ordinary people, rapidly disappearing desire to compromise in both camps etc. I didn't believe him back then as I was not into much of Ukrainian reality back then.

Word for word you're correct. IMHO he does know the facts well enough but he's using very careful and elaborate language to create a very specific impression while trying not to cross the line of facts literally. I took the most extreme cases to illustrate. There were two Western-leaning parties (again, by Western I mean Ukrainian West) who were considerably more popular in Western provinces. Just putting all the pics would have made the post unreadable. Certainly I do not imply 100% of the East voted for Yanukovich and 100% of the West - for Wesnernish parties. It's just a heavy prevalence - not the absolute black-and-white picture.

Note: All assault rifles are equipped with optical sights. Ratnik electronics. The practical use of tactics from Syria campaign.

@John Kettler, a small correction. It's MT-12 not T-12. They differ in gun carriage. There's a bit of dark humour in what the reporter says: "Now I know if I need to send 40 missiles at the distance of 40 km I'll use only Tornado-G for this...", "The only thing one wants to spell in this beautiful musty night: 'Battery, 333!'"[and they fire...] Russian TV is really going not-so-slightly crazy

Haven't read the book but read the interview. The problem is not the bias the problem is he's skewing the facts that's happens so ofter with "experts" who peddle bla-bla-bla personal views rather than provable facts. Taras Kuzio This is why Russia consistently attempts to portray all opposition in Ukraine as coming exclusively from the more predominantly Ukrainian-speaking west of the country. In reality - 2012 election results. 2012 was the last time when both Westernish and Easternish were allowed to participate (I mean Ukrainian East and West). The elections were certified acceptable by all international bodies. Easternish Yanukovich Party results Ultra-Westernish nationalist Svoboda Results of 2001 census: what language people consider their native I believe it's fair to say the breakdown of society between East and West is quite clear and is not the product of someone's imagination.

May be warheads didn't explode for some reason. Two 80mm HEFRAGs and no serious fragment damage on the cars.

So far the reason for the accident is given as an electrical short-circuit that caused involuntary launches.

@John Kettler, VDV. Paras.

http://navyparade360.mil.ru/ 360 degrees panorama of RUS Navy Parade

And one more a forecast Background: RUS airlines are now trying to establish a semi-slave labor rules regarding civilian pilots. The reason is civilian pilots have very transferrable skills - they can fly for RUS airlines, Iran, China - whatever. So when rouble fell RUS airline salaries became uncompetitive. And since RUS economy is not about competitiveness and efficiency RUS airlines cannot adapt and increase pilot salaries in local currency to what's available at the international market. So pilots started to move to other countries and that became a state-wide problem by now. So why the background... In some cases Russian military producers didn't waste the state money as customary in Russia but created rather high tech engineering and production lines and they hired young engineers straight from high schools to man them. Those engineers were young and inexperienced when they started but that's not so anymore. With currency halved and military budgets shrinking these young lads will realize sooner rather than later that designing running gear for a tank in Russia is actually not that different from designing running gear for some heavy construction equipment somewhere else...

Correct. RUS MoD already has an inefficient structure and it's making it worse and worse. What will be the end - is quite clear. Red Square parade units No real impact on military capability. Things to watch: sudden switch of budgets from buying new platforms to upgrades to old ones, delays in new platform adoption in numbers, slower production tempo for new toys, programs left orphaned at R&D stage etc. Overall Russian economy is about six times smaller than US by PPP. So a rule of thumb - Russia has monies to support six times smaller military than US. And that's about what happening in reality as estimations for the number of combat ready ground troops in Russian military range from 20 to 50 thousand. Less high tech gear in RUS Army allows you to jump a bit over "six-times-less" rule. In R&D intensive industries - and weapons production is VERY R&D intensive - the economy is quite the opposite to your notion of "cheap Russian labor". Your R&D costs are so high that lower individual wage of an assembly line worker does not help. What helps is higher production numbers - something that you're lacking with "six times smaller military." So even though technically you're able to produce, the costs would be so high it's prohibitively expensive for your military budget. And that's what's happening in RUS with really new toys rather than upgrades. So if your budget allows you to have a six times smaller military in reality it means you have to do away with a ten times smaller if you want to have a modern high tech military. You may add to this calculation the fact that US is already over-militarized beyond the level when military spendings start to negatively affect your economy competitiveness. Wise people do not want to repeat others' mistakes

It's interesting what RUS MoD plans to do with so many different platforms. New ones: Boomerang, Kurganets, T-14/T-15, a multitude of light wheeled vehicles. A whole slew of older wheeled and tracked platforms that are here to stay for the decades - BTR-82A, BMP-3, BMD-4, Rakushka, T-72, T-90 etc. That's many times more than US Army has yet RUS economy is light years behind American one...

https://support.skype.com/en/faq/FA12395/how-can-i-record-my-skype-calls

Russia's light headed infantry In Russian city of Chita (well over 300 thousand) some guys tried to sell S-200 warhead as a scrap metal. https://youtu.be/_fhhVyRGlSg

Especially if one defines the victory as not a dismantling of state-like structures but rather as no acts of terror on the invading countries - be those Eastern or Western... It sets a higher mark - pushing everything under the rug is no more than a temporary solution. May be there's a similarity in popular feelings... I guess in terms of real politik the situations are incomparable. Whereas in case of US/European politics it's still about the normal process of one political force taking over from another, in case of Middle East - there's nothing normal about the consequences. The costs are already borne whether those be in blood or gold. And the question is rather how to minimize the bloody side...

@John Kettler, it'll take more than mere propaganda. Most of those who go have literally nothing to do at home and no future to expect. You can stop it only if you make them believe they have an alternative in normal life. May well be at a fraction of current military expenditures at Middle East... Broadly speaking current welfare programs at non-oil rich countries are simply designed to reproduce zealots. Allocating money to gasoline and floor subsidies yet keeping secular education unattainable for the poor (religious one is free and readily available). Just fashioned in a way underprivileged never stand a chance to ride up social lifts and pose economic competition to the "aristocracy".

NK is not a signatory to the non-proliferation so legally they don't have any obligations. Not that I believe NK's getting ICBM adds any positive spin to the situation. I meant US sanctions against Russia and Russia-US detente, not international sanctions against NK. I expected Russia would have derailed NK sanctions in Security Council in retaliation as was tit-for-tat custom of late times but to my sheer amazement it did not. Though I still believe it may well be a miscalculation on the Russian side - it's obvious there's an extremely broad anti-Russian unity among American establishment. IMO Russian leadership could hope for reciprocity in other areas for its NK position and I can hardly imagine it forthcoming. Then it might be an emotional case of unrealized hopes and further downward spiral. Russia views it as a global bargaining whereas for US all points of contention are separate with their own unconnected logic.

@DreDay, @Sgt.Squarehead, @Bulletpoint, New sanctions... So much for any hope of a detente I guess NK must be high on the list of possible points of retaliation: RUS vs. US interests are so diverse. For RUS it's a chance to earn a buck or two rather than loose anything and yet for US it's a most beloved pet subject.

Well... It's less. Unfortunately going into too much details is not a healthy exercise these days. Hope you understand. Sorry

I made slides of them: long-term economic dead-end for Russia to try to position itself as the land of cheap labor (though more like the land of low salaries given the low productivity). Source: Rosstat vs. NBS, salaries given at exchange rate rather than PPP - it added colour to the logic 3Q16 through 1Q17 should stand the test but please correct me if I'm wrong. If several hundreds are 900 of them We've got many millions from former Soviet Union republics so they should sizeable against their numbers. And then it'd make millions with family members added. China growth rates does have a significant effect on oil prices. If we make an assumption NK war severely degrades China economic growth alone then Russia looses on ALL hydrogen exports not just one directed to China. And we still haven't counted in SK and Japan and other commodities Russia exports... Here I'd drew your attention to the fact that what's a middle-class in NK is nowhere near that by INTERNATIONAL standards. There's no IT outsourcing, electronics manufacturing, precision machine building etc. There's just nowhere to acquire an internationally transferable skillset. So being a middle class in NK would mean menial job outside. As factual argument I'd use: Some of Notherners living in SK or China are middle class in NK yet all of them work as unqualified labour. There was an interesting interview taken by one the Russian specialist in Korean studies with a middle-class NK business-woman (yes, they do exist ). She was quite open and said that the widespread view among NK middle class is that Korean reunification would be their personal disaster. They pretty much understand they're not competitive and they really loath to work as janitors till the end of their lives. Russian Korean diaspora is of Korean descent yet it developed along with the country since 40s. By assimilation I mean people from NK will have everyday problems they're unable to solve just because most of their life is structured the way it was 50 years ago. Like you'd need to teach them what is a bank account, how to open it, how to use a credit card etc. Now imagine how difficult it would be for people say in their 40s. PS And thank you very much for a very interesting discussion! I hope we'll go on

AFAIK their main concerns as of now are: Playing court politics Preventing any possible court coup against Kim. Checking Chinese influence so that Kim does not wake up one morning with no country to rule Making sure an unquestionably difficult and risky time travel from mid-20th century into 21st does not put Kim's / NK aristocracy rule in danger. Enriching themselves as much as possible. They're one of the most active players in NK foreign trade and internal "privatization"

May I say a word in defence of @John Kettler. Seriously, let us not forget he brought so much of the most interesting stuff we've seen on this forum. So many of the discussions I value the most were exactly with John.

Protect yourself against Russian influence! PS JK, please don't get get offended. Just couldn't help...

How does it offset economic losses due to negative effects to many a leading SEA economies? Russia will pay its hefty share of losses through commodities decline. To earn a buck yet loose a hundred looks like a bad trade to me. Labor market effect: Right now Northerners don't have many options - not everyone welcomes them. Given a choice why will they go to Russia? Average salary in Russia is 50% less than in China and a nightmare compared to SK? Why Russia over countries much closer geographically and culturally? To make a dent in Russian labor prices there should be millions of Koreans - how likely such a mass migration? So far the deal is Russia earns the monies from cheap Korean labor and bears almost no costs of supporting the families. In a scenario of mass-migrations a hard working Korean husband will need to spend RUSSIAN budget to support the family in Russia, not a fraction of it while his family stays in NK. The case of labor migration from Asian republic of former Soviet Union shows the prevailing pattern of keeping families home and bringing only those who can work to Russia. When Northerners live in their dormitories in Russia and venture outside just to earn an extra buck or entertain oneself with a MacDonald's treat you actually have minimal cultural interaction between two worlds. If whole families are resettled you have massive effort of bringing huge number of people "up to speed". Banking, different medicine, (still) much higher educational standards at school etc. That's immensely expensive IMO If NK workers do manage to have an effect on local labor market it means the prices will fall for EVERYONE. Even for millions of Russians who are barely able to provide for themselves and their families. What about this cost? So I think the equation for a "cheap and hard working NK labourer" works just as long as he earns a Russian salary against NK costs, there're not so many of them to actually affect the overall labour market and there're no massive costs to the state finances associated with resettlement. Again I'd use the behaviour of Tajik, Kyrgyz and Uzbek labourers after the Russian rouble crash as a historical proxy. So many of them left because they can earn more working in Middle East.